Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is a lot to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below running back situations that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.
Quick links to all positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Travis Kelce Is Dominant
Travis Kelce has a DraftKings yardage prop of 1150.5. By comparison, that is 325 yards more than Mark Andrews, who is the second tight end in yardage. The gap is as big as Mark Andrews to Tyler Higbee (500.5). While Kelce will turn 34 in October, he still has the eighth-best odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+2200) and is a true difference-maker at the position. His ability to dominate the position makes him an elite option in redraft as well as a good target in dynasty formats where opposing dynasty GMs are concerned about his age.
Kyle Pitts' Prop Is a Problem
Kyle Pitts has been a limited participant in Atlanta's routes through the first two preseason games. Of the team's first-team dropbacks, Pitts has only run routes on 50% and has been targeted on only 11% of the first-team offense's targets. Pitts's limited route participation is a concern that has not shown up in the passing market, as his yardage prop of 700.5 which has remained consistent this offseason. Pitts's yardage prop of 700.5 is 26.9% of Desmond Ridders's passing yardage prop, which is by far the highest yardage prop as a percentage of the tight end's starting quarterbacks prop. Of the tight ends with props, Pitts has the quarterback with the least security, so Ridders's low prop is likely inflating Pitts's percentage of passing yardage prop, but Pitts is substantially higher than Kelce (24%) and Andrews (23.6%). For Pitts to meet his prop in a low passing-yardage offense, he will need to see a much more expanded role in the regular season than he has with the first-team offense this preseason.
Dallas Goedert and the Third Tier
Dallas Goedert is in the third tier of tight ends in yardage props this season. Initially, his yardage prop was 600.5, but the line was quickly bet up to 700.5 yards. After Kelce and Andrews, this falls in a tier with T.J. Hockenson (750.5), George Kittle (725.5), Pitts (700.5), and Darren Waller (700.5). The tier is a good representation of how to address the tight end position. With a strong tier of players after Kelce and Andrews, focus on selecting one of the players at the cheaper end of the tier rather than one of the more expensive players.
Is Mark Andrews Undervalued?
Last year, Mark Andrews accounted for 27.1% of Baltimore's passing offense, which ranked 14th in the league, and was the leader among tight ends. His current prop of 825 is only 23.6% of Lamar Jackson's passing yardage prop and is behind Michael Pittman (28.6%), Mike Evans (32.5%), and DeAndre Hopkins (27.7%), who he significantly outperformed in market share in 2022. The knock against Andrews in 2023 is the addition of added competition, but the likes of Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr, and Nelson Agholor are not threats to Andrews' elite target share. With an 825.5 receiving yardage prop, Andrews is second behind Kelce at the position, but he profiles as significantly better than the tier of tight ends beneath him.
Tyler Higbee Is Being Discounted
Tyler Higbee's passing prop is only 500.5 receiving yards, a number he has covered each of the past four seasons. Higbee had 620 receiving yards in 2022, and his lower prop is likely based on the concern Cooper Kupp's return will limit Higbee's passing volume. However, Higbee was better when Kupp played in 2022 than when Kupp missed time. In the nine games Kupp played in 2022, Higbee averaged 4.9 receptions and 42.8 receiving yards, a 17-game pace of 83 receptions and 727 receiving yards. In the eight games Kupp missed in 2022, Higbee averaged only 3.4 receptions and 28.5 receiving yards per game, a 17-game pace of 57 receptions and 484 receiving yards. While Kupp returns in 2023, the team's pass catchers have not improved in a way that threatens Higbee's market share. Of the tight ends who have a prop as well as their quarterback, Tyler Higbee has the second lowest percentage of his quarterback's prop (13.5%) ahead of only Dawson Knox.