Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Kirk Cousins' Struggles

Kirk Cousins's first season in Atlanta has been a disappointment.  After tearing his Achilles in his final season with Minnesota, Cousins signed with Atlanta to much fanfare.  He started the season relatively well but has struggled over the past month.  Since week 10, Cousins has scored only 6.8 points per game, which ranks 35th at the position.  During this span, he has thrown 8 interceptions, 0 touchdowns, and averaged 7.6 yards per passing attempt. 

In his defense, Cousins's poor stretch of play does come with three tougher matchups against the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings. 

However, the past month has been a correction on his previously overinflated stats from the first half of the season.  In weeks 1-9, Cousins threw for 17 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 16.3 points per game, which ranked as QB15. 

During that span, he had a big-time throw rate of 1.9%, which ranked 35th among 40 qualifiers.  The quarterbacks with worse big-time throw rates include Will Levis, Tyler Huntley, Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O'Connell, and Spencer Rattler.  Cousins's inclusion on the list was a troubling sign.  

During that span, Cousins had a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.1%.  In essence, Cousins was putting the ball in harm's way without a lot of payoff, but for a variety of factors, he got away with it. 

The last five weeks have been the correction, and the payment has come due.  Cousins's big-time throw rate has actually been up to 4.0%, while his turnover-worthy play rate exploded to 5.7%, the second highest in the league since week 10. 

Verdict: Kirk Cousins' decline in production is real and should raise concerns about his fantasy playoff performance.  The Falcons also drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and could turn to Penix in game if Cousins continues to struggle, raising the risk of fantasy disaster over the coming month.  Cousins should be avoided in lineups until his play rebounds. 

C.J. Stroud's Down Second Season

After a promising rookie season, C.J. Stroud struggled mightily in 2024.  In weeks 1-9, C.J. Stroud averaged 15.1 points per game (QB19) with only 7.2 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.  Over the past month, Stroud has averaged 12.7 points per game, with 4 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 7.3 yards per attempt.  His scoring during that period ranks 30th in points per game among quarterbacks. 

Stroud's downturn was predictable.  In 2023, Stroud got the benefit of good luck, throwing only 5 interceptions, but had 12.9 expected interceptions, the 7th highest total of the 2023 season.  This year, Stroud has thrown 9 interceptions, with 10.5 expected.  While Stroud has still been on the lucky side of his interception expectation, his interceptions more reflect his play than last season.    

There was much hope for him, with the additions of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, but the Diggs injury, the failure of Tank Dell to get back to his pre-injury form, and the erosion of Dalton Schultz as a difference-maker have sapped the firepower of the Houston offense.

Verdict: Stroud has still been good in his third season and is on a successful track, but his limited rushing production leaves him very susceptible to the whims of the passing game.  His overvaluation after a productive but non-elite rookie season is a cautionary note for future quarterbacks.