Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Bucky Irving’s Emergence

Bucky Irving has emerged as a highly productive player over the last month.  Since week 10, Irving has averaged 24.1 points per game, the RB3 in points per game during that stretch.  Despite a week 11 bye, Irving ranks fifth in rushing yards among running backs over the past four weeks.  Irving has done this efficiently, averaging 6.2 rushing yards per carry. 

The last month has represented a change in Irving’s usage.  He has out-snapped Rashaad White in the past two weeks, which matches his recent growth in rushing attempts.  Irving has had as many carries as White each week since week 8. 

Week 12 represented the most timeshare the two had since week 8, with each handling 40% of the team’s rushing attempts, but much of White’s work came in garbage time.

Irving’s week 13 league-leading rushing performance is indicative of his ascendence as the lead rushing back in Tampa Bay.  However, the top-5 fantasy production is not likely to be sustained because he does not have a workhorse-level share of the backfield.  For example, Irving has run a route on only 35% of his team’s dropbacks, the clear second option behind White.  In fact, when both White and Irving have played this season, Irving has only run more routes than White once, which was in week 12 (59% to 34%).  Week 13 saw their receiving workshare numbers fall back to their season-long norms.  While White has run a high percentage of routes, Irving is more frequently targeted on his routes (22%) than White (19%).  This allows him to make up some of the gap in opportunity but still leaves him outside the range of workhorse running backs.

Verdict: Bucky Irving has ascended to the lead back in Tampa Bay, but his workshare is not consistent with his recent production. Irving should be a top-15 option but will need a higher level of receiving and rushing workload to sustain top-6 production. 

Is Adam Thielen a late-season starter?

Adam Thielen left week 3 and was placed on injured reserve.  At the time, there was a real question about his future in the league, especially on a team heading nowhere. 

Thielen returned to the lineup and got a surprising boost from a strong stretch of quarterback play from Bryce Young.  Thielen ran routes on 68% of the team’s dropbacks in his first week back and was targeted on 15% of his routes.  In week 13, he took a big step, running routes on 78% of his routes with a target rate on his routes of 26%.  Thielen had a near miss in the end zone on a play that should have been a touchdown and still managed to finish as WR5 on the week. 

This team’s receiving core has been completely overhauled.  They traded Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo during the season, which elevated rookie Xavier Legette and journeyman David Moore into nearly every-down roles. 

Verdict: Theilen returns to a receiving corps that suddenly is less proven and less established at earning targets than when he left for injured reserve.  With so many injuries at the wide receiver position, Thielen is a real option for contending teams as a WR3 with WR2 or better weekly ranges of outcomes down the stretch of the fantasy season.