Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is much to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below are seven quarterbacks who have valuable information in their prop betting markets.
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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
With Anthony Richardson announced as the starter in Indianapolis, his prop has stabilized. FanDuel had him at 2700.5 over/under earlier this offseason before it fell to 2475.5 in early August. The prop has since rallied to 2800.5 at DraftKings and 2700.5 at FanDuel after he was named the starter and played well in the preseason. Richardson has the second lowest prop of the 30 quarterbacks with a passing yardage prop and the second lowest touchdown prop (16.5) ahead of only Desmond Ridder. Richardson does not currently have a rushing prop, but we project him to rush for 821 rushing yards in our consensus projections and finish as QB13.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud has been one of the fallers on the passing prop market. In mid-July, DraftKings had Stroud at 3400.5, which steadily fell to 3125.5 before the first preseason game. After his performance in the first preseason game, Stroud's passing prop at DraftKings fell from 3125.5 to 3050.5. His number is down more than 10% this offseason, a sign of bearishness in the market on his offseason. Our consensus projection has Stroud as QB27.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has been a steady faller in passing yardage prop. Carr was at 3900.5 in mid-June, which fell to 3800.5 in mid-July and down to 3700.5 at present. This is Carr's first season in New Orleans, so the drop in passing prop after initial optimism in the market is not surprising. Carr threw for 3522 yards in 2022, so the market is still optimistic about Carr even though his passing prop has fallen during the summer.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Of the passing props offered on the market, Desmond Ridder has the lowest present passing prop at 2500.5 at FanDuel and 2600.5 at DraftKings. By comparison, Ridder's fellow 2022 NFL Draft classmate, Sam Howell, has a yardage prop of 3200.5. Ridder has struggled during the offseason, and his prop is a discouraging sign for Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith threw for 4,282 yards in his breakout performance in 2022, but his props are bearish. Only Jared Goff (-12.7%) and Patrick Mahomes II (-11.4%) have a bigger decline in their prop than Smith (-11.2%). All three played in 17 games, and the prop market is reducing their projected passing prop to adjust for injury risk, but the nearest quarterback is Kirk Cousins (-6.8%). Seattle drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but his wrist injury makes his status uncertain for the start of the season. Smith's passing prop has stayed at 3900.5 on DraftKings throughout the offseason.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
There was a lot of optimism in the fantasy football space about Justin Fields's potential development as a passer. On the positive side, DraftKings has set a line of 2850.5, which is 24% higher than his 2022 line of 2242. On a negative note, this is down from his opening line of 2950.5. Of the 30 starting quarterbacks with a passing prop, Fields ranks 28th, ahead of only Ridder and Richardson. Fields's success was driven by his performance on the ground in 2022, producing a top 12 seasonal finish with more running points than passing points, which is the only time in the last 15 years that a quarterback has accomplished the feat. Fields has a rushing prop of 800.5, the highest of any quarterback.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The betting market was high on Lamar Jackson to start the offseason, with a passing prop at 3625.5, but that has fallen to 3500.5 at DraftKings and down to 3350.5 at FanDuel. Jackson's prior career high is 3,127 passing yards on 401 attempts in 15 games in 2019. The market has cooled off, but he is still priced at a career-high. Our projections like Jackson to throw 523 times, well north of his career high, and finish with 3875 passing yards.