Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is much to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below are six receiving corps that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.
Quick links to all positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
Seattle Stability?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the first round to join a receiving corps of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Some initially wrote off Lockett, but the market has been durable. DK Metcalf has been steady with 900.5 receiving yards with Tyler Lockett at 800.5 receiving yards throughout the summer, both ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba's receiving props have been split throughout the offseason. DraftKings had a 725.5 receiving yardage prop, while FanDuel set the prop at 650.5. When it was announced on August 22 that Smith-Njigba would undergo wrist surgery, his prop was removed from the market, but Lockett's receiving yardage jumped from 800.5 to 875.5. Our projections have Metcalf at WR15 and Locket at WR19 while projecting Smith-Njigba to play 14.8 games and finish as WR46.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Is Rising
Amon-Ra St. Brown had an initial receiving prop of 950.5, which quickly jumped to 1000.5 receiving yards and has now jumped again to 1050.5 in mid-August. St. Brown had a big movement in his market to lead the league in yardage and receptions as well. St. Brown was initially 35/1 to lead the league in receptions, but that has dropped to 18/1. He now has the eighth-best odds to lead the league in receptions. St. Brown was clearly underpriced to begin the offseason but certainly has benefitted from Jameson Williams's suspension and disappointing training camp.
Green Bay Receiving Corps
Christian Watson has been a steady riser during the offseason. He opened with a prop of 750.5 at DraftKings, which jumped to 800.5 in mid-July. That number took another jump up to 825.5 in mid-August at Draft Kings while settling at 850.5 on FanDuel. Preseason darling Romeo Doubs has again gotten positive buzz in training camp but is a distant second, with 550.5 receiving yardage prop.
Pittsburgh Wide Receiving Corps
George Pickens has been a preseason breakout candidate with positive camp reports. His yardage prop opened at 775.5 at FanDuel, which then increased to 800.5 in the third week of August, but his Draft Kings yardage prop has stayed even at 750.5 throughout the offseason. Notably, Diontae Johnson also opened at 775.5 and jumped to 800.5 in mid-July while remaining stable at 825.5 at DraftKings throughout the offseason. Pickens's market has been in dynasty and redraft throughout training camp, but his lack of market movement is a concern.
Jacksonville Wide Receiving Corps
Calvin Ridley has been the subject of positive buzz, and this has shown up in his prop market. His initial prop was 850.5 in July but climbed to 875.5 in mid-August before jumping to 900.5 in recent weeks. Christian Kirk has maintained his yardage prop of 825.5 throughout the offseason despite his preseason usage as primarily a slot option who was coming off the field in two wide receiver sets.
Skepticism in Carolina
Adam Thielen's prop opened at 600.5 but quickly fell to 550.5 receiving yards, where he has stabilized. His market was initially behind D.J. Chark Jr's prop of 675.5 receiving yards, but Chark's prop was taken off the board after his hamstring injury. Thielen has been a declining player in recent years, so the fact his line has not increased in the aftermath of Chark's injury is notable.