Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is a lot to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below running back situations that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.
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A Familiar Work Share in Green Bay
The Green Bay offense is in a state of flux after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets. Jordan Love is the new starter, and the uncertainty in the offense is reflected in the rushing prop market. Aaron Jones has had a rushing prop of 800.5 yards at DraftKings throughout the offseason that has jumped to 850.5 in the past 10 days, while his prop of 825.5 rushing yards has held steady at FanDuel. A.J. Dillon's rushing prop has been the highest variability this month. He started the summer with a prop of 725.5 at DraftKings, which fell to 675.5, while his FanDuel prop fell from 675.5 to 600.5. Both finished with higher rushing totals last year, with Jones rushing for 1121 and Dillon rushing for 770, but the prop market is in line with their 59-41% workshare from last year.
Alexander Mattison is Falling
Alexander Mattison’s offense has featured a tumultuous prop market. He started with a rushing prop of 800.0 at FanDuel in mid-July. He jumped up to 875.5 in early August and then to 900.5 in mid-August. Since then, he has been in decline. He fell to 850.5 in mid-August before plunging to as low as 785.5 at FanDuel. Mattison signed one of the bigger deals of the offense, including 6.25 million dollars guaranteed behind only Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and Jamaal Williams in guaranteed money. The betting markets have reacted negatively to his preseason, with Ty Chandler’s performance a likely contributing factor.
Brian Robinson Market
Brian Robinson started the offseason with a rushing prop of 800.5 around the start of training camp, but that has slowly decreased. At first, Robinson’s number dropped to 775.5 before settling at 750.5 at DraftKings and 725.5 at FanDuel present. Antonio Gibson’s prop is not currently being offered, but there has been nearly a 50/50 split in workload between Robinson and Gibson through two preseason games.
Philadelphia’s Mixed Market
Philadelphia let Miles Sanders depart in free agency before signing Rashaad Penny and trading for D'Andre Swift. Swift has consistently been 500.5 rushing yards this offseason, but there is a bigger split in the Rashaad Penny market. Penny has consistently been higher this offseason, with some offshore markets offering Penny at 700.5 rushing yards, while Draft Kings has 600.5 rushing yards this offseason. Despite high variability in preseason usage and reports about Penny’s role, his market has been stable through the offseason.
The Effect of the Ezekiel Elliott Signing
Rhamondre Stevenson had a consistent rushing prop of 1000.5 throughout the offseason, but his prop fell to 850.5 after the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson’s prop has rebounded to 875.5 at FanDuel in the aftermath of Elliott’s signing and sits as the 12th-highest in the betting markets. Notably, Elliott opened with a rushing prop of 375.5 at FanDuel and 425.5 at DraftKings, where both props have remained. Notably, Stevenson’s rushing prop fell from 6.5 rushing touchdowns to 5.5 rushing touchdowns after the signing of Elliott.
The Jaylen Warren Effect
Jaylen Warren has seen plenty of buzz in the preseason. Warren does not have a rushing prop, but the effect can be seen in Najee Harris’s rushing prop. At DraftKings, his prop has remained at 975.5 throughout the season, while at FanDuel, he opened the offseason with a prop of 950.5 rushing yards in mid-July, which fell to 925.5 in mid-August before falling to 900.5 after the second week of the preseason. The disparity and 8% middle in the market is a sign of uncertainty about the situation, but the context warrants consideration. In both markets, Harris has the sixth-highest rushing prop, so beware of overstating Warren’s impact.