Monday Dynasty Roundup, Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys' Clayton Gray has the best term for the weekly fantasy content creation grind: "Groundhogs Day." Making content is a true labor of love; the weekly cycle is a rinse and repeat. Writing this article. Creating a Weekly Deep Waiver short. Recording the Footballguys Dynasty Show. Creating ranks. Monitoring fantasy scores. Checking ranks. Creating a weekly DFS cheat sheet. Waivers for too many leagues. Checking ranks. The DFS Show. Checking ranks. Setting lineups. The Audible Live. Checking ranks. Setting lineups. The Sunday Morning Start / Sit show. Checking ranks. Then, existential dread exists as the clock ticks to zero on Redzone and the weekly NFL snow globe shakes.

Weekly, it is easy to be tied up at that moment, wanting to generate the best possible analysis for that slate of games.

Sometimes, one needs to take a step back and evaluate trends.

The Hot or Not List

Hot: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills - Island games are funny. The narrative on Allen has spun; his turnovers are the primary reason the Bills find themselves in a perilous playoff position. His 14 interceptions lead the league. He has also lost three fumbles. He's Jameis Winston! But island games are a funny thing. Seven of his seventeen turnovers came in Week 1 vs. the Jets on Monday Night Football and Week 10 against the Broncos on Thursday Night Football. So, 41% of his turnovers were in two games that everyone was watching. Those were two losses that are playing a factor in the Bills' standings. But Allen handed the defense the lead with 1:55 left against Denver, and the Bills led the Jets by ten at halftime. Allen still answered in crunch time and led scoring drives to tie or take the lead late in both games.

Overall, he has the second-highest completion percentage of his career (seventh in the NFL), the third-highest QBR of his career (third behind Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott), has the lowest bad throw rate of his career at 12.3% (second-lowest is 16%), is facing the lowest pocket time of his career at 2.2 seconds, and is fantasy QB1 per game over the last month.

But the turnovers! He is likely to set a career-high in interceptions. Surely, his peers do a much better job of caring for the ball. And they do. Patrick Mahomes II' 13 turnovers are less than 17. So are Tua Tagovailoa's 14. And Jalen Hurts' 15. And Lamar Jackson's 12.

Allen has been playing at his usual MVP level self while the Bills have been the victims of bad luck, allowing come-from-ahead losses to Philadelphia, Denver, New England, and the Jets. Don't let the narrative spin too far here.

Not: Seattle Seahawks - Coming out of Week 8, the Seahawks were leading the NFC West at 5-2 and sitting in the number two position in the conference with a head-to-head win over the Lions in the bag. Since then? The team is 1-5 with only a three-point win against the Commanders. Oh, they also play the Eagles in Week 15. At 6-7, they find themselves outside of the playoffs, tied with the Rams (who own a 2-0 head-to-head tiebreaker), Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers.

The real problem?

Geno Smith was one of the best stories in 2022. He has regressed, with numbers approaching his career norms. The Seahawks had a gift coming off the Russell Wilson trade, receiving the fifth pick in the 2023 draft from Denver with multiple quarterbacks available and multiple draft picks to move around the board. They stuck at five, selecting cornerback Devon Witherspoon. That was a fine pick, but falling out of the playoffs with the opposite of their 2023 capital, owing their second-round pick to the Giants for defensive tackle Leonard Williams, the team has to ask themselves if they missed an opportunity to add a player like C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson.

Pete Carroll is the complicating factor. At age 72, he is not just the oldest coach in the NFL; assuming he stays through the 2024 season, he will end that season just shy of passing Romeo Crennel as the oldest coach in NFL history. It would be reckless to speculate if the team shortcuts an excellent opportunity to reset their franchise around a young quarterback due to Carroll's competitive window. Still, here I am, speculating if the team shortcuts a chance at a franchise quarterback because of his window.

Hot: Denver Broncos. Do you want to find the opposite of the Seahawks? The Broncos were done at 1-5. The talk was about when Russell Wilson would be benched to give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Sean Payton was a blunder of a hire, and the team was a laughing stock after the 70-point performance by the Dolphins in Week 3.

Now?

The team is just one game back from the Chiefs after a 6-1 tear that sees them in a massive pileup at 7-6 for the AFC wildcard. They hold head-to-head edges on the Browns and Bills in that pileup and are close to even bet to make the playoffs. Their schedule stacks up favorably. They have a Week 15 Saturday primetime game against the Lions, but after that, they play the Patriots, Chargers (potentially without Justin Herbert), and Raiders.

The team is on a seven-year playoff drought, the second-longest active behind the Jets' 12-year drought. They have a great chance to break it, and if they do, they will be a team capable of pulling an upset.

Not: D'Andre Swift was a significant early season story, sitting as RB8 through the first six weeks and crushing his RB29 ADP. Over the last seven weeks, he has one game inside the top ten running backs and another inside the top 25. He stands as RB34 per game, barely holding on to RB3 status.

He is a fascinating case. His 822 rushing yards are fourth in the NFL and well past his previous career high. But he sees next to no usage in the passing game, and touchdown regression has hit hard with the prevalence of the Eagles' Tush Push and being tackled repeatedly inside the five-yard line. He is the opposite of prime Austin Ekeler in his current role, which means the opposite of a top-tier fantasy running back.

Rapid Fire

• Hot: Green Bay Packers
• Not: Jerry Jeudy
• Hot: Brock Purdy
• Not: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Hot: Chase Brown
• Not: Derek Carr
• Hot: Evan Engram
• Not: Stefon Diggs
• Hot: Chuba Hubbard
• Not: Gus Edwards
• Hot: DJ Moore
• Not: Dalton Kincaid

Blind Resume

Multiple standout performances from quarterbacks shifted fantasy outcomes in Week 14. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper Dynasty leagues (give or take).

• RB Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas (9% Sleeper rostered) - Josh Jacobs left with a knee injury, and with the Raiders falling out of playoff contention while facing a short week, there is minimal reason to push him. Zamir White will be the natural pickup, and at 60% rostership, he is likely to be unavailable in deeper leagues. It is unlikely White is a one-for-one swap with Jacobs, as the Raiders have consistently played Abdullah ahead of him all year. Abdullah is likely the better PPR play, while White has a better chance of a goal-line touchdown in standard formats. Either way, the shutout against the Vikings shows this is an emergency move only, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
• WR Demarcus Robinson, LA Rams (9% Sleeper rostered) - Robinson has officially supplanted Tutu Atwell as the third receiver for the Rams. His ten targets are more than Atwell's in any game in 2023, and he has scored in back-to-back games. His performance in a revenge game against Baltimore solidified his standing from last week's Watch List.
• TE Davis Allen, LA Rams (6% Sleeper rostered) - Allen showed out with Tyler Higbee out. The Rams resigned Higbee to an extension in September, and he is likely with the team through 2025. Still, the team showed faith in Allen. His five targets are a number Higbee has matched only three times through 12 games. Allen delivered with 50 yards (Higbee has only hit that number twice) and scored. If Higbee and Atwell are out in Week 15, Allen is an emergency option in deep leagues.
• QB Easton Stick, LA Chargers (2% Sleeper rostered) - 2023 is officially the year of the backup quarterback. Justin Herbert suffered a hand injury, and the remainder of his season is an open question. Meanwhile, the Chargers play the Raiders in a short week. This game was his career's first meaningful playing time, and he struggled against a problematic Denver defense. He is a deep discount version of Justin Herbert, possessing prototype size, some speed for the position, and a big arm he showed off on a 57-yard play to Quentin Johnston. In a year, Jake Browning looks like a legitimate fantasy option, and Drew Lock looked competent for most of his game against San Francisco. Do not scoff at the potential here.
• WR Xavier Hutchinson, Houston (54% Sleeper rostered) - Hutchinson was the biggest beneficiary of Tank Dell and Nico Collins' injuries in playing time. His rookie season has been quiet, seeing some schemed touches in the run game through most of the season. The Texan's offense struggled severely, and C.J. Stroud left the game after being evaluated for a concussion. Hopefully, he clears because the team has a plus matchup against the Titans' poor pass defense. If Nico Collins misses extended time, Noah Brown likely has the first opportunity to step up as the primary option, but Hutchinson has the game to serve in that role.
• WR KaVontae Turpin, Dallas (12% Sleeper rostered) - Turpin is fascinating. He possesses game-changing speed and sits in one of the best offenses in the NFL. That said, his current role leaves him well short of fantasy utility. He has four offensive touchdowns, as Dallas has played a minimal role with him. He is only an addition in the deepest leagues but is a player to watch over the next month through the offseason.
• TE Will Mallory, Indianapolis (12% Sleeper rostered) - Kylen Granson posted the highest yardage total for a Colts tight end in Week 13 with 72 yards, so Mallory's five targets and receptions were the highest total on the season. Mallory was the fastest tight end in the 2023 NFL draft with a 4.54 40-yard dash. The most likely outcome is an unusable fantasy cluster that varies based on the situation. If a bet is placed on this situation, Mallory is likely the best choice.