Sunday Morning Update
Both of the Jets starting corners are out this week. This puts Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, and A.J. Brown firmly in play this week and could make for an excellent stack. You likely won't need to put all three of them in your lineup, but having a stack between Hurts and Brown or Hurts and Smith could certainly take advantage of this situation. Of the two stacks, Smith seems slightly overpriced for his recent production, while Brown has shown the upside in recent weeks to be a potential GPP winner.
Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Slate Overview- Week 6 Thoughts
Week 6 is an interesting one, as there are some clear decisions based on roster percentage that will need to be made based on the number of injuries that have occurred this week. This is particularly true at the running back position where as of Saturday we have three running backs that are 20% or higher, which is going to drastically determine how roster construction is done this week.
Also interesting this week is that we only have two teams that are projected to score more than 25 points which is the lowest that we can remember in a given week since we’ve covered DFS. The Dolphins are projected to score 31, while the Rams are projected to score 27.5, so roster percentages will naturally gravitate towards those teams, so it can create an opportunity for you if you can identify the team that will exceed expectations in terms of getting to a potential 30+ performance that most have not identified.
Key Injuries for Week 6
There are several critical injuries this week and some scenarios that we are still keeping an eye on.
- Justin Jefferson was placed on IR this week with a hamstring injury. This will completely change the offense of the Vikings, and the overall impact remains to be seen. It’s likely that we will see both T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison see an increased workload, but the reality is that we need to just re-baseline expectations for this offense. There’s no replacing Jefferson, so this offense likely just takes a hit overall. Expect Addison at $5,700 to be one of the most popular players on this slate.
- Miles Sanders is out for the Panthers with a shoulder injury. Chuba Hubbard will get the start, and Hubbard has seen 23 carries over the last two weeks, although he has not been able to do much with them amassing just 3.3 yards per carry. Chuba Hubbard at $4,300 is going to be one of the most popular plays on this slate, as he is the top running back under $5k this week with not a lot of value on the slate.
- Sam LaPorta is questionable with a calf injury. It sounds like he will play, which at $5,600 is an interesting price, as he is going under the radar this week given the injury.
- Khalil Herbert was placed on IR while Roschon Johnson will miss this week with a concussion. This leaves the Bears with just D’Onta Foreman as their starting running back. He is a potential nice pivot off of Chub Hubbard as he is just $100 more.
- The Eagles defense is pretty banged up. Jalen Carter, and Darius Slay, will both miss, while Fletcher Cox was cleared although is less than 100%. This could create an opportunity for Breece Hall as a GPP play.
- De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson will both miss this week leaving Raheem Mostert as the primary running back for the Dolphins in a tremendous matchup this week. While Salvon Ahmed may see some action, this backfield is likely to be as much of Mostert as he can carry. Mostert at $6,400 will be the most popular player on this slate and it could be by a wide margin.
- Deshaun Watson will miss this week with a shoulder injury. P.J. Walker will get the start for the Browns. This is only relevant if you want to start the 49ers defense, as they become one of the top plays this week. At $4,000 they are solidly in play this week.
- James Conner is out this week as he was placed on IR. This should be a split backfield between Keontay Ingram and Emari Demercado, although, among the two, Demercado is interesting simply because of the pass-catching ability.
- Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton all look like they’re going to miss this week for the Patriots. This could make Kendrick Bourne interesting this week, more on him later in this article.
- Anthony Richardson is out this week, as he was placed on IR. Gardner Minshew will get the start for the Colts, which could give a very slight increase to Michael Pittman and possibly even Jonathan Taylor as a GPP play. Last week, the Colts primarily used Zack Moss, but we have to think that with Taylor’s new contract, they’re going to work him in sooner rather than later.
Stacks
Top Stack
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown
People seem to still be a little hesitant to immediately vault Kupp back into the top echelon of wide receivers this week as he’s currently trending at about 10% rostered. It’s likely a combination that there is a belief that Puka Nacua will eat into Kupp’s workload, or that they’re looking in other directions such as the Tyreek Hill /Ja’Marr Chase route, but how quickly the fantasy world forgets just how dominant Kupp was when he was healthy. Through the first 8 weeks of the season last year before Kupp’s injury, Kupp was second in the NFL only to Stefon Diggs as Kupp averaged 26.4 DraftKings points per game in the 8 healthy games he had last season.
The matchup could not be better for the Rams this week as they take on a Cardinals team that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but has faced a very easy schedule to date. This is a defense that has allowed 321 yards and 2 touchdowns to Daniel Jones, 283, and a touchdown to Brock Purdy, and last week allowed Joe Burrow to finally hit 300 yards as Burrow had 317 yards and 3 touchdowns. Corner Marco Wilson is one of the worst corners in the NFL this season in yardage allowed while in coverage we have to think that the Rams are game-planning on how to get Kupp on Wilson this week.
Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, DK Metcalf
For Burrow, all signs are pointing upward after a confidence-building performance against the Cardinals last week. This week, the Bengals get another weak secondary to continue to try to get back into the playoff hunt after the difficult start to the season. Seattle is allowing the second-most passing yards per game this season to opposing quarterbacks and second-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Making matters worse for the Seahawks' already depleted secondary is that they will be without Coby Bryant and Artie Burns once again this week, so the team will need to turn to veteran Michael Jackson and first-round rookie Devon Witherspoon alongside Tariq Woolen. The corners themselves are likely somewhere in the middle of the pack this season, but the safeties are near the bottom as the combination of Quandre Diggs and Julian Love just has not worked for the Seahawks. This is a defense that has allowed 18 or more DraftKings points to 6 wide receivers so far this season in only 4 games. Expect Chase to put significant pressure on these safeties and potentially beat them downfield for multiple long receptions.
For Metcalf, this is a play in which he is too low-rostered. At around 5%, he’s a guy who before their last game had consecutive games of 75 yards or more as in their last game they had a commanding lead over the Giants with little need to throw the ball. The Bengals have not faced a big physical receiver yet this season.
Under the Radar Stack:
Bryce Young, Adam Thielen, Raheem Mostert
This stack is one that very few people are going to have this week, but it’s one that just assumes that checks a couple of boxes. First and foremost, it is a direct play against the highly rostered Chuba Hubbard, for this stack to work, Miami needs to get out to a big lead which will eliminate Hubbard’s upside. Secondly, this is a stack that is going to be different for the Raheem Mostert rosters, as Bryce Young currently is estimated to be rostered on just 2% of rosters this week, while Thielen is about 10%. The only way that this stack works is if Mostert can get out to scoring multiple times early, this could be a game where Young has garbage time stats like last week where he ended with 247 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor player. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
Quarterback
P.J. Walker- $4,000- <1% Rostered
P.J. Walker is likely going to cause all credibility to be lost on this article but hear me out. Let’s just play a hypothetical where we talk about the best-case game for P.J. Walker this week. If I told you that P.J. Walker had 200 passing yards and somehow managed to accumulate 2 touchdowns, you would tell me that it is at least possible against a defense that this season has already allowed 265 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns to Joshua Dobbs who the Browns got rid of in the preseason. Or the 365-yard 3-touchdown performance that Jarrett Stidham had against this 49ers team last season.
If Walker could somehow manage 200 yards and 2 touchdowns that’s 4x value before any rushing upside that he may have. Is there a less than 50% chance that this will happen? Of course, it’s probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-20%. On a week where there is very little value plays, taking a chance on a quarterback at $4,000, could just pay off this week.
Kirk Cousins- $7,100 5%
Cousins is a quarterback going under the radar this week because of the injury to Justin Jefferson. At a roster percentage projected to be around 4%, this is still a Vikings offense that is going to try to throw the ball against the Bears with the likes of K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. While the Bears do get some defensive replacements back this week in Eddie Jackson, Kyler Gordon, and Jaylon Johnson, this is a defense that is allowing 295 yards passing per game including a 388-yard performance against Sam Howell last week.
Other quarterbacks to consider:
Trevor Lawrence
Joshua Dobbs
Brock Purdy
Running Back
Running back might be the deepest position we’ve had in quite some time this week, as several players are all priced appropriately, some risky players on the low-end in potential blowout situations, but they’ll see the volume, and then the top-end of running backs is solid as well.
Bijan Robinson- $7,200- 8%
Robinson is the perfect bounce-back candidate that many will ignore because he burned a lot of people last week. While Washington’s overall statistics against the run are solid this week, a strong case can be made that Robinson is the best running back that the Commanders have faced, as they’ve faced James Conner, D’Andre Swift, James Cook, Khalil Herbert, and Javonte Williams. Robinson is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and every time he touches the ball just looks as if he runs differently than every other running back in the NFL. He’s yet to have the massive multi-touchdown game, but it is coming and it shouldn’t surprise you if it comes this week against the Commanders
Breece Hall- $6,000 5%
Breece Hall is interesting this week. After a 22 carry 177-yard performance many are simply looking at the matchup against the Eagles and passing which based on their history is understandable. No running back has topped 53 yards rushing on the season, as Philadelphia has been one of the league’s best against the run this season. However, the Eagles are dealing with a number of injuries that could keep them from stopping the run effectively. The biggest news is that Jalen Carter will miss this game due to an ankle injury which is a massive injury for the Eagles as Carter has been one of the best interior defensive linemen this season. For Hall, this is really about his breakaway ability, as he’s averaging 7.2 yards-per-carry which while it is not sustainable, does have big play potential every time he touches the ball.
Alvin Kamara- 13%
Since returning from his suspension, Alvin Kamara has been a workhorse as he has 24 and 25 touches since returning. While last week, he was not able to duplicate the 13 receptions he had two weeks ago, he was still able to manage 22 carries along with 3 receptions last week. This week, the Saints take on the Texans who while they have a significantly better run defense than they have had the past few seasons, is still a unit that can be run against as we’ve seen by Zack Moss, Travis Etienne, and Najee Harris all have over 100-yards rushing + receiving.
Other Options
D’Onta Foreman
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Kyren Williams
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk- $5,400- 17.5%
Christian Kirk has established himself as a solid target for Trevor Lawrence this season. After Kirk was largely shut out in Week 1, he’s had 50 yards or more in every game this season including averaging 7 receptions for 81 yards over the last two weeks. If he’s just able to do that this week, against an abysmal Colts secondary that is allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game this season then he’s already almost to 3x value. Not to mention if he can find the end-zone as Jacksonville is projected to be the 3rd-highest scoring team of the week.
Michael Thomas- $4,900- 5%
Michael Thomas has yet to have that breakout game, but what he has been extremely reliable and consistent. Thomas has had 50 yards or more in every game this season, and the question is whether he has the upside as he is now in his age-30 season. The good news for Thomas is that he is averaging 8 targets per game, and is facing a Texans defense that struggled with physical wide receivers last week Drake London and Kyle Pitts both had big games against the Texans as Desmond Ridder threw for 329 yards last week.
DJ Moore- $6,500- 6%
At just 6% rostered, it seems as if many are writing off the DJ Moore performance last week as a one-time flash-in-the-pan type performance. At least, that is the only way that it can make sense, as Moore being this low-rostered makes zero sense this week. While he had the incredible 230-yard 3 touchdown performance last week, what seemingly most people are overlooking is he had 130 yards and a touchdown the week before against Denver. This week Moore gets to face a Vikings team that has been beaten by top-end receivers as Devonta Smith, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen all topped 100 yards against this defense this season.
Fade:
Jordan Addison- $5,700- 21%
Some of you are going to look at this and just immediately say, “Devin you’re crazy for fading Addison. Look, currently, Addison is projected to be the highest-rostered player on this slate. This is primarily due to the Justin Jefferson injury and the expectation that Addison will step in as the primary number-one receiver. The reality is that while Addison could step in as the number one target, there also could just be a void that is created, or there could be a scenario where KJ Osborn and T.J. Hockenson pick up most of the extra volume in this offense while Addison continues to excel in the role that he is currently in. Football is different from say basketball, where if the star player goes down, the shot attempts can go to any other player on the floor. In football, the plays are a significant factor here, so is Addison able to immediately step into the role that Jefferson had? There are several questions to be had, particularly in a wet game in Chicago that is not anticipated to be a shootout with a game total of just 43.5.
Other Options:
Drake London
KJ Osborn
Kendrick Bourne
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson- $6,600- 9%
At the tight-end position, it’s all about the upside. If we look at this slate, there is not another player that has the upside that T.J. Hockenson has compared to the rest of the tight ends. If Sam LaPorta was completely healthy, he would be in the conversation, but Hockenson’s role should increase dramatically given that Justin Jefferson is out, and we very easily could see Hockenson step up into a new role where it is more downfield targets similar to what he had in Detroit where he averaged 11 yards per catch compared to 8.5 in Minnesota. Jefferson’s targets are likely going to be concentrated around Hockenson, K.J. Osborn, and Jordan Addison.
Kyle Pitts- $3,500- 16%
Pitts is going to be popular this week, but at $3,500 the price has not adjusted enough based on his upside. As fantasy managers have been waiting for Pitts to have his breakout performance, we saw a glimpse of the upside last week as he had 7 receptions for 87 yards against the Texans. Within a GPP, you don’t always have to fade the most highly rostered players, as they are the highest rostered players for the reason that they are often under-priced or in an ideal matchup. This week against the Commanders, Pitts has an upside that very few have in the sub-4k price range.
George Kittle- $5,000- 5%
This is a bit of a narrative this week, but historically George Kittle’s touchdowns come in bunches. We saw two four-game stretches last season in which Kittle had 7 touchdowns over a four-game stretch, and then four touchdowns over a separate four-game period. Last week, Kittle scored three touchdowns, which could this spark another hot streak for the tight end?
Other Options:
Cole Kmet
Zach Ertz
