Top 2 Rushing Matchups
Seattle vs LA Rams - Neutral
The Seahawks suffered a brutal injury last week as Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL, which puts the running responsibilities solely on Ken Walker III for the remainder of the playoffs. Despite Charbonnet getting injured early in the game, no other running back saw significant snaps in the 41-6 blowout, as the only other running back to have carries was converted wide receiver Velus Jones Jr, who had six carries for 10 yards. Meanwhile, Walker was outstanding, recording 116 yards on 19 carries and three touchdowns. Seattle also suffered a critical offensive line injury worth watching: left tackle Charles Cross suffered a foot injury and has not practiced either Wednesday or Thursday. If he's unable to go, that would be a critical loss for Seattle, as his backup, Josh Jones, is also dealing with a knee and ankle injury and did not practice either Wednesday or Thursday. We're not done here. The third-string left tackle, Amari Knight, did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, as he is also dealing with a knee injury. This is a massive issue for Seattle, as if they're not able to have one of these guys ready to go, they're going to rely on 2025 seventh-round rookie Mason Richman to get the start this week, a player who has not taken a snap all season. The good news, if there is any, is that typically run-blocking is easier to jump into, and the drop-off will be less severe. So you could see Seattle go with a more run-heavy scheme and try to wear down this elite Rams defensive line and pass rush.
The Rams' rushing defense was trending in the wrong direction heading into the playoffs, but it has corrected with two solid performances. In Weeks 16 and 17, Bijan Robinson and Ken Walker III both topped 100 yards against Los Angeles, but through the first two games of the playoffs, they've held Carolina and Chicago to an average of just 85.5 total rushing yards and just 3.4 yards per carry. The issue they face this week is that, in both meetings this season, Walker has found success, running for 100 yards on just 11 carries in Week 16 and 67 yards on 16 carries in Week 11. As talented as the Rams defense is, it is designed to rush the passer, and when they're spread out in their nickel package, they have had issues stopping the run. While both safeties, Kam Curl and Quentin Lake, are excellent run-stoppers, they often move Lake down to the slot corner as he's played there on 64% of plays, which brings in Kamren Kinchens, who is a 2024 third-round pick. Kinchens is a coverage specialist who provides much-needed help to the corners, but has struggled to stop the run at times this year. Along the defensive line, when they take Poona Ford out and bring 2024 second-round pick Braden Fiske into the game, issues arise. Fiske is a decent pass rusher, but has been one of the worst interior run-stoppers in the NFL over the last two seasons, which puts additional pressure on the linebackers who have played well, but are not the ultra-athletic caliber of a first or second-round linebacker, as Nate Landman and Omar Speights were both undrafted players in the 2022 and 2024 drafts.
New England at Denver - Tough
Rhamondre Stevenson continues to produce, even in difficult matchups. Last week, against a good Houston run defense, Stevenson had 70 yards on 16 carries, as he consistently wore down the Texans with his 230-pound frame. These difficult playoff yards are where the Patriots are going to need Stevenson, as rookie TreVeyon Henderson seems to have hit a bit of a rookie wall in recent weeks. Henderson in the playoffs has averaged just 10.5 carries for 26 yards per game, and if you were to take out one 15-yard carry against the Chargers, he's averaging 1.9 yards per carry on his other 20 rushes. Henderson has also seen his workload in the receiving game completely evaporate and shift towards Stevenson, as Henderson has just two total catches over his last four games, and those went for a total of seven yards. Stevenson, on the other hand, has averaged 3.5 receptions per game over his last four games, averaging 41 yards per game through the air and scoring two touchdowns in those four contests. New England is remarkably healthy, with this being their 20th game of the season. They have their entire Week 1 starting offensive line intact, which is critical, as this unit dealt with injuries throughout the regular season. The key to this game will be the rookie left tackle, Will Campbell, and the rookie left guard, Jared Wilson. Both have been inconsistent, as most rookies are, but Campbell is coming off a strong game against Houston after struggling against the Chargers. Meanwhile, most of their success on the ground comes running to the right, as it's a veteran offensive line featuring Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses. Both players are having exceptional seasons.
Last week, we mentioned that Denver's overall rushing stats may have been inflated by their schedule, and they struggled to manage James Cook, who ran for 117 yards on 24 carries, while Josh Allen added another 66 yards. This is a defense that has been great for most of the season. During the regular season, they allowed the second-fewest rushing yards. However, in the playoffs, every defense is great against the run, but two matchups must be discussed as the best. This is still a very good defense with only two running backs topping 100 yards against them all season, but they were by far the two best running backs that they've faced in Jonathan Taylor and James Cook, as Denver has had one of the easier running back schedules in the NFL. This defense is well-coached and has elite run-stoppers at all three levels, as Talanoa Hufanga at safety is one of the best run-stoppers in the NFL, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw is a run-stopping specialist, and the Broncos have one of the most complete defensive lines in football. However, they rank third this week in terms of the rankings simply because of the question about how they are going to move the ball offensively without Bo Nix. If this is a game where they face 28 carries, as New England did against an elite run defense in Houston, that could wear this defense down, as the Broncos are not a deep unit.
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