DraftKings GPP Domination Week 5

Know Your Opposition

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Slate Overview- Week 5 Thoughts

Week 5 is one of the more difficult weeks in recent memory. The biggest issue is that there are very little injuries that create new value particularly at the running back position. From a game theory perspective, we have a number of running backs that are all bunched together in terms of roster percentages, so it is really about picking the right players and avoiding the traps. What is interesting this week, is that people as of now, seem to be overreacting a little bit to the most recent weeks. These middle weeks, can typically be the beginning of the end for DFS as it typically peaks right around Weeks 5-8, as the casual players then drop off for NBA or other sports.

Key Injuries for Week 5

There are several critical injuries this week and some scenarios that we are still keeping an eye on.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown will miss this week with an abdominal injury. This will leave Sam LaPorta and Josh Reynolds as the top targets in Detroit, both of which are great plays this week.
• Cooper Kupp returns this week, which will create a bit of a logjam for the Rams for the time being. The issue is that both Kupp and Puka Nacua are priced as if they are elite wide receivers, and their upside is limited this week based on their price and potential opportunity with both being in the lineup.
• Tee Higgins will miss this week with a rib injury. This should open up additional opportunities for the passing game, but the big question is the health of Joe Burrow. JaMarr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd should all see additional workload, but this offense has been one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL this season.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has been downgraded to doubtful this week. This will make David Montgomery one of the most popular plays of the week.

Top Stacks

Matthew Stafford, A.J. Brown, Kyren Williams

Stacking a running back with a quarterback is a little bit unique, but Kyren Williams leads the Rams in red zone targets. This all could change with Cooper Kupp returning this week, but both Kupp and Puka Nacua are too expensive and are likely to cannibalize each other’s upside this week. Kupp is essentially priced as if he was fully healthy as he is the third highest wide receiver on this slate where we aren’t even sure how much he is going to be playing this week.

For Stafford, this is entirely assuming that this game will be the highest scoring game of the week. The Eagles’ secondary has been abysmal compared to last year’s dominant unit, as this year they are allowing 279 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is the best quarterback that they have faced this season. So far this year, the Eagles have faced Mac Jones, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell, and have allowed 290 yards or more to 3 of those 4 with the only one who failed to do so being Mayfield. This is a rebuilt secondary as the team lost both of their safeties in the offseason as C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps, while at corner Avonte Maddox is out due to injury. The biggest issue for the Eagles has been the lack of pass rush as they set the NFL record last season with 70 sacks.

At a total cost of $12,300, this is a very affordable stack for the Rams, and allows you to spend up to have A.J. Brown on the other side of this game.

Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

This is an under-the-radar stack this week, but it is a value stack that allows you to diversify elsewhere particularly at the running back position. Michael Pittman quietly has been quietly putting together a solid season, as he has 11 or more targets in three of his four games this season. While he did have a poor game last week, he is in a great bounceback spot this week. While the Titans secondary had a strong game last week against the Bengals, they have been brutal to start the year as they’ve allowed 289 yards to Deshaun Watson, 305 yards to Justin Herbert, and 305 yards to Derek Carr.

On the other side of the ball, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the perfect run-back player in this stack. While most are going to look at DeAndre Hopkins, Westbrook-Ikhine at $3,500 has more of the chance to pay off his salary than Hopkins does who is priced up at $5,700. With Treylon Burks out, Westbrook-Ikhine should see nearly 100% of the snaps, and is coming off of a 51 yard game with a touchdown against Cincinnati. If Westbrook-Ikhine can find the end-zone at $3,500 he’s going to massively pay off his salary against this Colts secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL.

Fade:

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill

This is entirely just speculative. A lot of people are going to look at the 70 points that the Dolphins scored and question whether or not they are just going to run up the score on the Giants this week as well. The Dolphins took significant criticism for putting up 70 points, particularly from some former NFL players and coaches. The question is whether or not they will continue to run up the score against opponents, as that is essentially what you will need this week in order for the expensive stack of Tagovailoa and Hill to pay off. Hill is going to be about 20-25% rostered while Tagovailoa is likely in the 15-20% range. The bigger issue however that most o the people that play Tagovailoa are going to play Hill, meaning a massive portion of the field is going to be on this stack.

On the season, the Giants have only allowed one wide receiver to top 20 DraftKings points, while no quarterback on the year has topped 25 DraftKings points. Now, they haven’t faced an offense as explosive as the Dolphins, but they’ve allowed 24 or more points in every game this season. If you are set on playing Tagovailoa, consider stacking him with Jaylen Waddle instead of Hill to create some uniqueness in your lineup.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones 3%

Like last week, we are recommending a quarterback that many have just written off as a horrendous player. It worked out last week as Justin Fields had a nice bounce back week and we could see something similar from Jones this week. While it is difficult to see the Giants keeping this game close due to their porous defense, Jones has the rushing upside that we’ve seen both this year and in prior years to have a significant GPP impact. Jones’ first really bad performance was this past week, as the other two losses for the Giants he largely gets a pass due to facing two of the best defenses in the NFL in Dallas and San Francisco. Last week was a game in which Jones should have been able to consistently move the ball. This week, the Giants get to face the Dolphins who have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and have allowed two consecutive 300-yard passing performances. Jones has enough upside with his feet that if he can rush for a touchdown he could pay off his price particularly in the second half if the game gets out of hand.

Kirk Cousins- 5%

We’ve seen Kirk Cousins this season and his ability to continue to just accumulate stats throughout the game where at the end of the contest you look down he’s thrown for 300+ yards and several touchdowns. Cousins has thrown for 340 yards or more in three of his four games on the season, and his roster percentage is lower than it should be primarily due to last week’s poor performance against Carolina.

While the Kansas City defense so far this season has looked good, they have largely played a weak opposing quarterbacks as they’ve faced Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson. Last week, Zach Wilson showed that this is a defense that can be exposed against the pass as Wilson had one of his better days of his career with 245 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday Night. This is a rebuilt Kansas City defense that replaced several key contributors from last season including safety Juan Thornhill and defensive end Frank Clark. While Trent McDuffie is one of the league’s best slot corners, the Chiefs have had issues stopping receivers on the outside as Christian Kirk, Allen Lazard, Josh Reynolds all had big games against this defense.

Fade:

Joe Burrow- $6,200 12%

Look, Arizona’s defense is bad, but at this point, we simply can’t trust Joe Burrow to have enough upside to pay off a 12% roster percentage at a price that is not cheap enough. Part of what made Joe Burrow so great, was the chance that he could get a rushing touchdown or at least add 20-30 yards per game on the ground. This year, he has just eight carries for 3 total yards. This ultimately means, that he is going to have to do everything with his arm in a GPP, so essentially he’s going to need to have 300+ yard upside with 3-4 touchdown potential to keep up with the highest scoring quarterbacks on this slate.

The question you need to ask yourself, is what is the difference between Burrow and Matthew Stafford if neither are going to run the ball? Stafford has thrown for the second-most yardage of any quarterback in the NFL this season, is going to be significantly lower rostered, and is cheaper. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is 31st in fantasy points at the quarterback position, 27th in passing yards, and dead last at 39th in yards per attempt. At the moment, this is just a bad quarterback.

Other quarterbacks to consider:

C.J Stroud
Jalen Hurts
Patrick Mahomes II

Running Back

At the running back position this week, there are not a lot of options. There are about 12 different players who you could look towards, and then it falls off pretty quickly after those 12. Also, because there is not tremendous value at the running back position due to injuries, there is not one running back that is going to be in that 30% rostered range like we have seen in some weeks. What this does is it bunches up most of the viable running backs in a 10-20% roster percentage grouping.

Breece Hall- 8%

Breece Hall prior to the ACL injury was De’Von Achane prior to De’Von Achane. Now, the coaching staff has come out and said that he is no longer going to be on a “pitch count” in terms of snaps, and there has been minimal reaction to this. Maybe it is because they are the Jets and people tend not to want to play the Jets, but to be able to get Hall at under 10% rostered against the league’s worst defense in Denver, is a gift. Denver is allowing 43.5 DraftKings points to opposing running backs this season which is 11 more points than the next closest team. Hall is averaging 6.0 yards-per-carry throughout his career, and in his limited action this season, is still averaging 6.6 yards-per-carry on the season. He is an explosive, dynamic runner compared to Dalvin Cook who has look slow and plodding this season. If the pitch count is truly off, and Hall can have a full complement of snaps, this could be a massive day for the running back.

Isiah Pacheco- 17%

Pacheco is a nice value play this week at just $5,700, and while he will be somewhat popular, he has quietly been showing a consistent volume that we don’t typically expect out of the Chiefs backfield. Over the last three weeks, Pacheco has averaged 15.6 carries for 82 yards, while scoring two touchdowns during that span. While not the best receiver, he has averaged two receptions per game over the last three games. The matchup is a bit of a weird one, as this is a Vikings defense that was shredded by the Eagles stout offensive line as D’Andre Swift ran for 175 yards and a touchdown against this defense, but they have largely shut down Rachaad White, Miles Sanders/Chuba Hubbard, and Joshua Kelley. This week, the Chiefs offensive line is an elite unit very similar to the Eagles, so we could see a scenario where the Vikings get overwhelmed in the running game.

Alvin Kamara- 19%

Alvin Kamara in his first game back caught 13 passes against Tampa Bay. Part of this was due to the game script of the Saints falling very far behind, but Derek Carr has shown a history of throwing the ball to his running backs. Last season, in Las Vegas, running backs caught 87 passes from Derek Carr. So while, 13 is certainly an outlier, would it surprise anyone if we saw 6-7 receptions per game to Alvin Kamara? This is a scenario where the matchup is not overly special as the Patriots have been good against the run except for one game against the Dolphins where Raheem Mostert had 121 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, but it is more so that Kamara’s price has not adapted nearly as much as it should given the full point PPR upside.

Fade:

De’Von Achane 25%

This is a bit strange. Are people really going that heavy on De’Von Achane this week at over 20% rostered? He’s no longer under-priced, and while he out snapped Raheem Mostert last week, that was in a blowout situation that is going to be difficult to predict how this backfield is going to play out, as if we remember Raheem Mostert has also had a fantastic season. It’s almost impossible to think that Achane is going to see the bulk of the work. Also, thinking that an 11.4 yards-per-carry trend is going to continue is wild. Last week he had just 8 carries on 65% of the snaps, and while he was able to get to 101 yards, this is a prime fade opportunity. At 25% rostered, he’s going to need to have a massive day for him to work out for those people that are starting him, which is in the realm of possibilities, but there are other backs who have similar upside at far lower roster percentages including Raheem Mostert himself.

Other Options

Kyren Williams
DAndre Swift
Bijan Robinson
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson- 14%

Is there anything more that needs to be said about Justin Jefferson? In a game that should be a shootout, Jefferson should be near the top of just about all GPP priority lists. Jefferson has 26 or more DraftKings points in every game this season. What’s weird to say is that Jefferson hasn’t had that 40 point slate changing performance. The Chiefs have been good against wide receivers, but have not played a wide receiver that is the caliber of Jefferson. Christian Kirk and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 19 and 21 points in their first two meetings. The Chiefs defense is very strong in the slot as Trent McDuffie is one of the best slot corners in the NFL, but the Chiefs do have issues on the outside which could be exploited as L’jarius Snead has struggled this season, while the team does miss Juan Thornhill at the safety position.

Nico Collins- 10%

While Tank Dell continues to get a lot of love mostly due to price, it has been Collins who has been the number one receiver in Houston this season. Collins has been a big reason that C.J. Stroud has played as well as he has, as Collins is 7th in DraftKings points on the season, and is currently the 15th-most expensive on this slate alone. Collins is coming off of a 7 reception 168-yard 2-touchdown performance last week against Pittsburgh. The Falcons are a team that have a rebuilt secondary as they brought in Jeff Okudah as the former number three overall pick got a fresh start and so far has performed well after struggling in Detroit. However, this is a team that has struggled against number one receivers over the last two weeks as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk both had 80 yards or more against the Falcons. To get a player of Collins’ caliber at just $5.6k is a value that you should take advantage of this week.

Josh Reynolds- 5%

With no Amon-Ra St. Brown this week, the Lions are likely going to need to turn to Josh Reynolds to be their number one receiver this week. At just $4,200, Reynolds has been great this season as he has 60 yards or more in three of his four games this year. Having either Reynolds or Sam LaPorta is likely going to be a need this week, as the Lions are taking on a Carolina defense that for the most part has been good this season, but we’ve seen the number one target for quarerbacks go for 80 yards or more in three of the four games this season.

Fade:

Wan’Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale is going to be one of the most popular players on this slate simply because he is minimum priced this week at just $3k. Wan’Dale is an undersized possession receiver, which makes him extremely viable in a cash format, but for GPP’s there are a number of intriguing players in the $3-4k price range that are going to be much lower rostered than the 15-20% that Robinson will be with just as much if not more upside.

Other Options:

Marquise Brown
Michael Thomas
Adam Thielen
Kalif Raymond

Tight End

Sam LaPorta- 10%

Sam LaPorta has been great this season, and to get him at just $5k, before his price continues to go up, is certainly a player that we want to target this week. With no Amon-Ra St. Brown due to an abdominal injury, LaPorta along with Josh Reynolds should be the primary targets for Jared Goff and this passing attack this week. LaPorta leads all tight ends in yards this season and is fourth in receptions. While he may not have the upside that Travis Kelce historically has had, Kelce appears that age may be starting to get to him as he just turned 34 this week.

Zach Ertz- 12%

Ertz is 3rd in the NFL this season in tight end targets in the Red Zone, and while he has only caught two of those six targets, both were for touchdowns. At just $3,500 he has the best opportunity to catch a touchdown of the players that are sub 4k.

Other Options:

Chig Okonkwo
Dallas Goedert