PSA: Shortened Article This Week
Sorry for the shortened article this week. I mistakenly booked a vacation the wrong week to Disney as I had intended it to be next week during the bye week. Complete oversight on my part. Either way, this should prepare you for your two game slate.
Injuries Create Opportunity
The only injury situations that we're monitoring are on the defensive side of the ball. None of which will greatly impact DFS this week.
- Christian Benford is looking unlikely as the star cornerback from Buffalo has not yet been cleared from the concussion protocol and was absent on Friday's practice for personal reasons making it even more difficult to clear protocol.
- Taylor Rapp has been ruled out for Buffalo, as he'll be replaced by rookie Cole Bishop which could create issues for the Bills covering Travis Kelce as well as deep threats such as Xavier Worthy
Week 21: Two-Game Slate
If you're reading this, congrats, you officially a DFS generate like myself. Two game slates are amongst the hardest to breakdown as any play that happens can be critical to winning or losing so there is zero margin of error. Playing cash games this week is really not a great idea, although I know a lot of you will still do so. If you're playing it, don't try to get cute this week. Play the players that are going to be the most popular such as Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce despite them both being extremely highly rostered. Be careful this week, use this as entertainment rather than chasing any losses or trying to be confident because you're up this season.
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In GPP's, you can get a little more creative. Stacking one of the games is always a strategy that can pay off. My personal preference this week is to stack Washington. If the Commanders have any chance of winning this game, it will be through their passing game, so loading up on McLaurin, Jayden Daniels, and Dyami Brown thinking that they will need to throw often in this game to win is likely a narrative that I could talk myself into. Find a narrative of how these games are going to play out, and build a lineup accordingly. For example, if you think that the Bills vs Chiefs game will be a shootout, how does that happen? Could Patrick Mahomes II have a 300+ yard game despite going very underlooked this week?
Player Chart
| Quarterback | | | | |
|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 23.9 | $8,300 | Picking between Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen is an incredibly difficult decision. The choice here comes down to potential game script and savings. We could certainly use every dollar of savings that we can get this week, but for Daniels, it's likely that the Commanders are going to be trailing in this game which is going to force him to throw the ball and more importantly scramble. Daniels has 13 and 16 carries in the two playoff games thus far, and should have confidence heading into this one as he threw for 5 touchdowns the last time the Commanders played the Eagles. Daniels has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven straight games. |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 22.8 | $8,700 | In terms of upside, Josh Allen has a higher upside than Jayden Daniels, but his floor is lower. Throwing for only 127 yards last week against Baltimore, Allen was able to salvage his day due to rushing for two critical touchdowns en route to victory. Allen has now passed for less than 200 yards in three of his last four games. Allen did have one of his better games rushing against the Chiefs earlier this season rushing for 55 yards and a touchdown. Allen is an excellent GPP play, but expect him to be one of the most popular players on this slate, as on a two-game slate, you |
| | | | | |
| Running Back | | | | |
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | 21.3 | 9800 | If there is a player to prioritize on this slate, it is Barkley. He has run for over 100 yards in eight of his last nine games, and is facing one of just two positive matchup on this slate as the Commanders have struggled to stop the run most of the season. In his two matchups against Washington, he's run for 146 and 150 yards with two touchdowns in each game. There's no other running back who comes close to the floor or upside of Barkley this week. |
| 2 | Brian Robinson Jr | 9.3 | 6400 | Once you get past Barkley things get ugly quick. At $6,400, Robinson is under-priced despite facing a good Eagles defense. The Eagles defense is elite at both stopping the run and pass, so this is not a funnel where the Commanders are going to try to avoid running the ball. Last week, Robinson did have 15 carries for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns against a good Detroit defense. The risk here is that he gets completely eliminated, but that's the risk with all of these running backs besides Saquon. Robinson has about a 50% hit rate, which is consistent with his two games against Philadelphia this season, as he had a game where he had 10 carries for 24 yards and the first matchup he had 63 yards and a touchdown. |
| 3 | James Cook | 13.3 | 7100 | There are two big questions this week regarding James Cook. Overall, he would be the running back number two, but 1) Can you afford him in your lineup without sacrificing elsewhere? And 2) The snap count is a concern despite the production this season. Cook has seen a decrease in snaps over the second half of the season, and while it hasn't impacted his production, he's on the field only for about 45% of snaps. Cook has been a volume workhorse in the two playoff games averaging 20 carries per game. The matchup is a negative one facing the Chiefs who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. |
| 4 | Kareem Hunt | 8.9 | 6000 | Surprisingly Kareem Hunt has 54 red zone touches this season despite not being with the team to start the season. Despite only scoring seven touchdowns this season, he has scored in three straight games as the touchdowns start to normalize to the mean as 7 touchdowns on 54 carries is lower than what we would typically see. For reference, James Cook has 16 touchdowns on 66 red zone touches. Buffalo's run defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. While they've been better recently, this is still a defense to target compared to Philadelphia or Kansas City who are two of the elite run defenses on this slate. |
| | | | | |
| Wide Receiver | | | | |
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Dyami Brown | 8 | 5400 | Dyami Brown continues to be under-priced this week. At $5,400, you're getting a receiver who has at least 80 yards in each of his last two games. The matchup is a difficult one as he faces the Eagles defense who have one of the league's best secondaries, but to get a player who is coming off of 8 targets last week, he needs to be strong consideration to save salary. |
| 2 | Xavier Worthy | 11 | 6,500 | Despite a disappointing five reception for 45 yards last week, there's still plenty of optimism for Xavier Worthy this week. Worthy was the only receiver on the Chiefs who had a catch last week against the Texans, as JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown all were held without a catch. Snaps are also a tremendous indicator of future success as Worthy was on the field for 82% of the plays and has now led the team at receiver in snaps in five straight games. |
| 3 | Keon Coleman | 6.6 | 4,900 | If you're looking for a GPP play this week, Keon Coleman could be that guy who at $4,900 flies under-the-radar. The Chiefs weak spot in their secondary is safety Bryan Cook which could open up a downfield throw to Coleman who is averaging 19.2 yards per catch. If he catches a long touchdown at $4,900 he's going to be a top GPP play value this week. |
| 4 | Khalil Shakir | 10.5 | 6,400 | If you've read this article the last couple of weeks, you know that we've largely turned on Khalil Shakir. He continues to be one of the most popular players in cash games each week. Shakir has just four touchdowns on the season, and while he does have 60 yards in each of his last two games, he traditionally has not had the upside that you want on a full slate. However, on a two-game slate, if Shakir can get 60+ yards in this game even without scoring a touchdown, he likely hits value especially in cash games. He's not a must play this week, but also not an avoid like he has been the last couple of weeks. |
| 5 | Terry McLaurin | 13.3 | 7,900 | McLaurin has been outstanding the second half of the season and in the playoffs. The one issue for McLaurin this week is the price. At $7,900, he's just difficult to fit into your lineup, unless you sacrifice at the tight end position, but we are prioritizing Kelce this week. Over the last two games, McLaurin has 80 yards or more and a touchdown in each of his two playoff games, and has now scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. The Eagles secondary is a difficult matchup, as he had just one reception for 10 yards in their first meeting, but did have more success in the second time these two teams met as he had five receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown. |
| | | | | |
| Tight End | | | | |
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 11 | 6800 | If Kelce repeats what he did last week, he's going to be a must start this week. Kelce had 7 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown, which he now has 14 straight games with 70 yards or more in the playoffs. He's a completely different player in the postseason, as despite his regular season struggles the last two seasons, he is a player who seems more motivated in the postseason rather than just going through the motions in the regular season. |
| 2 | Dalton Kincaid | 5.6 | 5,200 | If you aren't going with Kelce, you need to pay down at the position, as the only way that you can manage a big Kelce game is if you counter it with an even bigger Terry McLaurin or another player game. Kincaid, at $5,200, has been disappointing this season but does still have athleticism in a passing offense that needs playmakers. Trying to take advantage of the matchup against Bryan Cook is the one hole in this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. |
| | | | | |
| Team Defense | | | | |
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Philadelphia | 9.8 | 4,400 | Paying up for Philadelphia as the biggest home favorite this week may be the way to go. The Eagles have seven sacks in the two games and have the most complete defenses remaining in the playoffs. Daniels has been sacked 47 times throughout the regular season which was the eighth-most this season. |
| 2 | Kansas City | 8.7 | 4,100 | The Chiefs had eight sacks last week which was a season-high as they pressured C.J. Stroud all game. The issue this week is that Josh Allen is one of the least sacked quarterbacks this season, and he's someone who has thrown just six interceptions throughout the regular season. There's upside here at some savings from the Eagles, but the floor is relatively low. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH and GPP Lineup Saturday-Sunday - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 113.5)
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,300
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,800
- RB Brian Robinson Jr, WAS, $6,300
- WR Khalil Shakir, WAS, $6,400
- WR Xavier Worthy, KC, $6,300
- WR Dyami Brown, WAS, $5,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $6,800
- Flex RB Kareem Hunt, KC, $6,000
- TD Philadelphia, $4,400
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Alternative GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 114.1)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,400
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,300
- RB Austin Ekeler, WAS, $5,600
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,900
- WR Keon Coleman, BUF, $4,900
- WR Dyami Brown, WAS, $5,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $6,800
- Flex RB James Cook, BUF, $7,100
- TD Kansas City, $4,100
Photos provided by Imagn Images