
Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 2 Rushing Matchups
Philadelphia vs Washington
Philadelphia is going to lean heavily on Saquon Barkley throughout the playoffs. In their two games thus far, Barkley has 25 and 26 carries; last week, he accumulated 205 rushing yards with two touchdowns. The Eagles have the perfect combination of elite running back with arguably the league's best offensive line led by their elite All-Pro tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. While the interior of the offensive line is not nearly as decorated with awards, they're run-blocking specialists led by Landon Dickerson at left guard and Mekhi Becton, who has been an extremely successful transformation from a former first-round bust tackle. The Eagles converted Becton to guard, and he looks like a long-term starter at the position. The one concern that most would have is the health of Jalen Hurts, as he suffered a knee injury in last week's game that could limit his rushing upside and force more work toward Barkley this week. Hurts did practice on Thursday, so it looks like he will play this week, but it seems he will be far less than 100%.
Washington's run defense has been one of the weaker units all season. Last week, the Lions torched this defense until they mysteriously decided to abandon the run. Detroit ran for 201 yards and three touchdowns as Jahmyr Gibbs led the way with 105 yards on 14 carries, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. During the year, Washington is allowing 114 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, the fourth-highest in the NFL. In their first two meetings, Saquon Barkley has run for 146 and 150 yards while scoring two touchdowns in each of those two games. The issue for the Commanders is that their defensive line is one of the weaker units in the NFL. They drafted Jer'Zhan Newton in the second round, but he has struggled against the run as, at just 295 pounds, he's undersized for the nose tackle position the team is asking him to play. Alongside Newton, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, both former first-round picks, have struggled throughout their careers against the run, excelling in rushing the passer, but this year is a different level. At times, they seem completely uninterested in stopping the run. The strength of this defense is at the linebacker position, as both Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu earned Second-Team All-Pro, and it is the 34-year-old Wagner who leads the team in tackles with 132. However, the linebackers can only do so much when they're being asked to shed blockers that the defensive line lets get downfield. All it takes is a little space for Barkley, and he's next to impossible to tackle in the open field.
Kansas City vs Buffalo
Isiah Pacheco has seemingly been demoted to a backup role, as he had just five carries last week and has just 11 over his last two games, with Kareem Hunt having 17 total. This is a rushing attack with insufficient volume to support a committee backfield. Hunt excelled last week in icing the game as he converted critical obvious running downs while ending the game with 44 yards on eight carries. On the other hand, Pacheco struggled as he had just 18 yards on five carries, with ten coming on one play. Pacheco has been on the field for just 33% of the plays over his last four games compared to Hunt, who is at 45%, with Samaje Perine adding another 20% as a receiving and pass-blocking back. The offensive line for Kansas City has been a problem, as left guard Mike Caliendo has struggled in his limited playing time, but the Chiefs are choosing to have a hole at left guard rather than left tackle as they benched left tackle D.J. Humphries to move left guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has also been an issue, as he's been one of the worst run blockers in the NFL this season.
The Bills' run defense has been inconsistent this season but did just enough this past week against Baltimore to come out with a victory. Buffalo allowed 176 rushing yards against Baltimore, which was a significant improvement compared to the 271 yards allowed to them in the regular season matchup. However, there still are concerns here. This defense is good enough to shut down some of the league's worst run defense but has struggled against average or above running backs as they've allowed 75 rushing yards or more to De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry twice, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams. The good news for Buffalo is that they're facing Kansas City, who ran for just 78 yards as a team, as Kareem Hunt led the way with 60 yards on 14 carries. The issue for Buffalo is the linebackers are a significant liability this season. Terrel Bernard has struggled all season and does not look to be a player that can be relied upon as a building block of this defense, while Matt Milano has not returned to his reliable form since missing the first 11 games of the season with a bicep injury. Milano is dealing with a hamstring injury that likely is impacting his production. Safety Taylor Rapp, who has been an excellent run-stopper this season, appears that he may miss this week as he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday with a back and hip injury. If Rapp were to miss, this would be a significant downgrade for this defense.
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Bottom 2 Rushing Matchups
Buffalo at Kansas City
James Cook is looking to get revenge against Kansas City after one of his worst rushing performances of the season back in Week 11, when he had just nine carries for 20 yards despite the 30-21 victory against the Chiefs. Cook has had a volatile year mostly due to inconsistent volume, as he had nine games with 12 or fewer carries, but in the team's two playoff games, he's averaging 20 carries per game. Last week's 67 yards on 17 carries will not impress most people, but that was the second-highest yardage mark on the season against the Baltimore run defense, trailing only Saquon Barkley. Despite struggling to run the ball against Kansas City earlier this year, the Bills could very easily look to try to run as they did against Baltimore, as Buffalo ran a total of 36 times with Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson. The Bills have a top-five offensive line, according to Footballguys expert Matt Bitonti, as the Bills are led by their tackles Spencer Brown and veteran Dion Dawkins, while center Connor McGovern is an excellent run-blocker as well.
Over the last quarter of the season, the Chiefs have had some regression when it comes to stopping the run, but don't be fooled. This is still one of the league's best-run defenses. For the year, the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, allowing just 70 rushing yards per game, which is third-best, and only two running backs have topped 80 yards. Last week, Joe Mixon was one of those two running backs, as he had 88 yards on 18 carries and was a key part of why the Texans stayed in that playoff game as long as they did. Mixon got consistent yardage last week, as he averaged 4.9 yards per carry without a run longer than 13 yards, which is remarkable efficiency. The Chiefs remain a defense that has been extremely lucky regarding health. The Chiefs are fully healthy on defense heading into this week, led by All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones is a dominant force who can line up at any position along the defensive line, while at linebacker we are seeing Leo Chenal get more playing time in recent weeks. For most of the season, Chenal would see about 20 snaps per game, primarily as a coverage linebacker. However, he's excelled at stopping the run, and we've seen that 20 snaps increase to nearly 30 in their last two competitive games, excluding Week 18. Chenal, along with Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, form a linebacking unit that has played together for multiple seasons and has a strong cohesion, which is critical at the position. Safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are strong run defenders, as the Chiefs have only allowed one big run all season: Jerome Ford's 62-yard touchdown.
Washington at Philadelphia
The Commanders took a surprising game plan against the Lions last week as they ran the ball 42 times, succeeding with Brian Robinson Jr, Jayden Daniels, and Austin Ekeler, who totaled 182 yards on the day. While the Commanders playing from ahead for most of the game certainly helped their rushing success, this was the Brian Robinson Jr that we saw early on in the season before struggling for most of the second half of the year. Robinson had 77 yards on 15 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and did not have a run longer than 15 yards. The Commanders did suffer a devastating injury as their best run-blocking offensive lineman, Sam Cosmi, was lost for the year with a knee injury. He'll be replaced by Trent Scott, who has struggled throughout his career and has not been a regular starter in the NFL since 2019. The Commanders will need Scott to play well this week, going up against the elite defensive line from Philadelphia, to have any chance at running the ball this week.
The Eagles have consistently been one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL this season. While they have shown some vulnerability throughout the playoffs, as Kyren Williams ran for 106 last week and Josh Jacobs ran for 81 in Wild Card Weekend, this remains a very good unit with some of the highest cohesion in the NFL. This is a team that the Eagles have built organically through the draft while also adding Zack Baun, who went from a player that no one wanted this offseason to the best linebacker in football as he was First-Team All-Pro. The Eagles are allowing just 80 rushing yards per game through the regular season and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. This defense seemingly has no holes as the defensive line led by Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, and Nolan Smith Jr. is a formidable unit, while Baun leads the linebackers, and Reed Blankenship is an excellent run-stopping safety. Only two running backs this season have run for over 100 yards against the Eagles: Kyren Williams last week and Rico Dowdle in Week 17, in which the Cowboys, despite losing 41-7, were determined to be the first team to run for over 100 yards against this defense.

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