Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update #1: 10:30 AM EST
There are a number of uncertain situations that are on-going at the moment.
- De'Von Achane we still don't know if he is going to play or not, as it seems like it is a true game-time decision. This one is tricky, as Raheem Mostert is at $8,000 and becomes a great play this week if Achane is out. The Dolphins did elevate Darrynton Evans which could be an indication that Achane will miss this week.
- Tyreek Hill is also a game-time decision.
- Aaron Jones may play this week, while it looks like A.J. Dillon is out.
We should know more in about an hour and update then as well, but as of now, there is no change to the primary cash lineup.
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,200
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,600
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $5,600
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,200
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,500
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,100
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $4,700
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $9,600
- TD Carolina, $3,300
Sunday Morning Update #2: 11:49 AM EST
No change to the primary cash lineup. De'Von Achane is active this week. I still don't love the Tucker Kraft/Jayden Reed combination, but rolling with it due to value.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE
- San Francisco (at ARI) – 30.75 points
- LA Rams (vs WAS) – 27.75 points
- Buffalo (vs DAL) – 26.25 points
Week 14 Recap
Week 14 was a difficult one. The key difference was picking the wrong tight end, as I had Isaiah Likely, Cole Kmet, and Evan Engram as the top three cash game tight ends, while calling out David Njoku on Thursday as my top cash game play on the Footballguys DFS Show. I ended up deciding to pair Cole Kmet with Justin Fields, who while he didn’t have a bad game with 5 receptions for 66 yards for 9.1 FanDuel points, Engram had 27.0, Likely had 16.8, and Njoku had 24.1.
These types of breaks while never fun, are going to happen throughout the season. There have been weeks this season where we have single-handedly won because of a defense or other positions, but this one is tough considering the top three tight ends on the board were guys that were targeted and the sub-optimal choice was made.
Total points scored- 113.32
- QB Justin Fields, CHI, $7,900, 24.72
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $7,100, 17.3
- RB Zach Moss, IND, $6,800, 7.6
- WR Parker Washington, JAC, $4,100, 7.7
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,300, 14.7
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $7,900, 4.4
- TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $5,600, 9.1
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $10,500, 15.8
- TD Cleveland Browns, 12
Week 15 Short Week
This week is only a 10-game slate due to the games being played on Saturday. Beyond just a 10-game slate, there are a number of teams that you are likely not going to want to target. Teams such as the Jets, Patriots, Giants, Panthers, Texans, and Titans are going to be really difficult to target given some of the injury news or just poor offenses. What this ultimately does is that it creates a seven game slate that is going to have a significant amount of overlap. You’re going to see incredibly high roster percentages centered around certain players, so being able to pick your spots on players that you want to be different on compared to just players that you’re ok joining the field.
The tight end position is going to be one that is going to be critical. Expect Tucker Kraft to garner most of the roster percentage this week at just $4,700 and coming off of a strong Monday Night Performance. Deciding what to do with him could be a way to be different as if he struggles and you go with a player such as Chig Okonkwo, Travis Kelce, or David Njoku, you could see an advantage this week. Similar to that is the wide receiver position with Jayden Reed. For a player who saw 10 targets last week, he is only averaging 4.8 yards-per-reception over the last three games. Based on how people are targeting him at $6,100, he’s going to be one of the highest-rostered wide receivers. If he continues the trend of short, underneath routes then he’s not going to be someone that you’re going to want to target, no matter how great the matchup against Tampa Bay may be.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
The Sunday Morning Update is going to be critical this week, even more than most weeks as there are a number of situations that are still undefined.
- C.J. Stroud will miss this week with a concussion. Davis Mills will likely get the start for the Texans although he split reps with Case Keenum. The Texans will also likely be without Nico Collins who is dealing with a calf injury. This will leave them incredibly thin at wide receiver as Noah Brown and Robert Woods will likely get the start.
- Tyreek Hill is questionable with an ankle injury. If he’s out, Jaylen Waddle will see an upgrade, although the matchup is a very difficult one as the Dolphins take on the league’s best pass defense in the New York Jets.
- Chris Olave will be a game-time decision for the Saints. If he is out, we could expect to see a minor boost for Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, but the Saints are facing one of the best pass defenses in the league.
- Brian Robinson will miss this week with a hamstring injury. Antonio Gibson will likely see around 70% of the touches, but Chris Rodriguez should also have a role, although most of the receiving volume should go to Gibson who is an excellent receiving back.
- The Falcons offensive line is a mess as four of the five starters are questionable for this week. While this will likely impact their rushing attack, it’s more likely that it will have a negative impact on their pass blocking as replacement level offensive lineman are typically much more capable run blockers.
- Isiah Pacheco will miss this week again. We haven't seen either Jerick McKinnon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire take advantage of Pacheco being out as the Chiefs rushing attack has struggled as of late.
Cash Game Rankings
| Quarterback | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | 19.77 | 7200 | The matchup could not be any better for the Rams this week, as they're taking on a Washington defense that has allowed 19 or more FanDuel points to every quarterback they've faced except for Josh Dobbs and Mac Jones. The Commanders are allowing the most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and a shocking 2.7 passing touchdowns per game since Week 8. Last week, we saw Stafford and this passing attack have one of their best games of the season as they finally were able to incorporate both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua into the offense as both receivers topped 80 yards with Kupp having just his second 100-yard game of the year. |
| 2 | Justin Fields | 18.56 | 7900 | The Browns are without their top three safeties this week as Juan Thornhill looks like he will miss along with Rodney McLeod and Grant Delpit who are both on IR. The Browns could also be without Denzel Ward this week as he is questionable after missing the last three games. The injuries have added up for the Browns as Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford both threw for 250 yards or more and 3 touchdowns each over the last two weeks. |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 23.46 | 9000 | While Dallas' secondary did rebound against the Eagles last week, this had been a team that has allowed 300 yards in two straight games to Geno Smith and Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Josh Allen may be the hottest quarterback in the NFL as he has ran for a touchdown in 9 of his last 11 games, has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games, and we saw just two weeks ago how the Bills and Cowboys had a shootout game that you essentially needed Josh Allen. No quarterback on this slate has the upside that he has in what should be the highest scoring game of the week. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Rachaad White | 15.1 | 7600 | Rachaad White continues to see high volume as he now has 20 or more touches in 4 of his last 6 games, while having 15 or more in 8 straight games. For White, the matchup is ideal this week taking on a Packers defense that are allowing the second-most rushing yards over the last five weeks and are allowing a staggering 5.2 yards-per-carry. The Packers have a strong defensive line led by Kenny Clark, but beyond that there are holes at both the linebacker and safety position which can lead to big plays for opposing running backs. |
| 2 | Ezekiel Elliott | 14.3 | 6500 | With Bailey Zappe at quarterback, Ezekiel Elliott's role has flourished as he has topped 90-yards in each of the two games that Zappe started. Last week, we saw Elliott be heavily utilized as a receiver as he caught 7 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. With Zappe essentially auditioning for a backup role in the NFL the key for him is to not turn the ball over, so checking down to Elliott often is something we can likely expect going forward. |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | 18.2 | 9600 | $9,600 for Kyren Williams is a lot, but he may be worth it this week. Williams has been a workhorse over the last four weeks as he has topped 100-yards in each of those four games while topping 150 yards in two of his last four outings with the two he failed to top 150 against the very strong Cleveland and Baltimore run defenses. Williams has been dominant in the red zone as he has 52 red zone opportunities which the next closest player on the Rams team has just 13 which is Puka Nacua. Kyren has 21 opportunities over the last three games which if that trend continues he should have a high probabilty to score a touchdown or even multiple this week in what should be a high output performance against this weak Washington defense. |
| 4 | Christian McCaffrey | 21.1 | 10500 | McCaffrey was disappointing last game as he only had 15.8 FanDuel points. However, touchdowns can be unpredictable and McCaffrey had 153 total yards last week while he was tackled inside the 5-yard line on a 72-yard run. This week he gets to face off against the Cardinals a team that he had 44 FanDuel points earlier this season as he had four touchdowns in a 35-16 victory. He's expensive, but on a short slate with plenty of value plays, you can build a roster around McCaffrey fairly easily this week. In a game that the 49ers should win fairly easily, and with the playoffs already locked up, do they need to turn to McCaffrey 25+ times like we saw in the first meeting between these two teams? That would be the only risk this week along with the opportunity cost of starting the star running back. |
| 5 | Antonio Gibson | 12.1 | 5600 | Brian Robinson will miss this week, which should put Antonio Gibson in a spot where he should see a majority of the touches this week. At $5,600, you'd think that he would be a lock, but Chris Rodriguez will have a role in this offense this week. Gibson's value likely is as a receiver, as the Commanders are expected to be trailing in this game. Gibson has five or more targets in four of his last five games, and with a snap share expected to go from about 40% to 70%, we could see 15-18 touches with 5-6 of them being receptions this week. If he can find the end-zone this week he will easily hit value. |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | 15.2 | 7800 | Saquon Barkley is interesting simply based on the matchup at $7,800. We saw last week that Chuba Hubbard ran all over this Saints defense that has been struggling to stop the run as they've allowed a league-worst 170 rushing yards per game over their last six weeks. Barkley is coming off of his best game of the season as he scored two touchdowns and because it was a Monday Night game the price has not adjusted accordingly. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Rashee Rice | 11.5 | 6500 | This is a scenario where the price has not adjusted enough for Rashee Rice compared to his recent role/production. Over the last three games, Rice is averaging 7.6 receptions, 81 yards and has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. With Isiah Pacheco out on Sunday, the Chiefs have not shown the ability to consistently run the ball, and will need to once again run this offense through Rice and Travis Kelce. |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | 18.2 | 9200 | Lamb is as consistent of a receiver as they come over the second-half of the season. Since Week 6, Lamb has topped 100-yards or scored a touchdown in every game, while having 9 or more targets in each of his last seven games. This week taking on a Buffalo defense that has been inconsistent on the season, Lamb should be in a featured role on what should be the highest scoring game of the week. |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | 15.3 | 8000 | Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp should both be in tremendous spots this week, but it is Nacua who is $500 cheaper and has been the more consistent player this season. For Nacua we have seen 7 or more targets in every game this season, and he should see a lot of Benjamin St-Juste who is allowing the second-most yards in coverage on the year. The Rams can be volatile as they have a strong running game, and Cooper Kupp to go to, but this should be a big performance all around for the Rams this week and all players should be in play. |
| 4 | Jayden Reed | 12 | 6100 | With no Christian Watson, Jayden Reed is expected to step up into the number one receiver spot in a perfect matchup against Tampa Bay who are allowing the third-most yardage to the wide receiver position this season. Expect Reed to be popular based on his $6,100 price tag, but there are some concerns heading into this week. Over the last three weeks, Reed is averaging just 4.8 yards-per-catch, so while the 10 targets last week with Watson being out is intriguing, he's in a different role than he was earlier in the season where he had five receptions of 30 yards or longer. This is a scenario where he's going to be popular, because he's popular on DraftKings. While he's not a bad play if you need a receiver in that $6,100 price range, he's by no means a must start this week. |
| 5 | Amari Cooper | 10.9 | 7200 | The theory that Amari Cooper's stock should be elevated with Joe Flacco came through last week as he saw 14 targets in Week 14. We saw this in Week 13 where Cooper was the number one guy in Cleveland before he exited with a concussion and Elijah Moore became the top option in Cleveland. The Bears have a very good run defense this season despite their record, which likely will force the Browns into a pass-heavy approach this week. |
| 6 | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 7000 | With Tyreek Hill questionable this week, Jaylen Waddle should see all the volume that he can handle even in a difficult matchup against the Jets. In their first meeting, both Waddle and Hill both topped 100-yards as they were the only two receivers to catch passes in that game. If there is a downside to Waddle it is that he only has three touchdowns on the season and only 8 red zone targets all season. The matchup is a difficult one as no team has allowed fewer receiving yards than the Jets this year. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 13.2 | 7500 | There comes a point where the price just is too low, and we're approaching that at $7,500. Kelce hasn't put up the monster games that we're accustomed to this season especially lately as he's only scored a touchdown once in the last six games. However, this is still the league leader in yards at the position and is only $700 more than George Kittle and $900 more than Trey McBride. While McBride is a decent option, he does not have the floor anywhere close to what Kelce has each and every week. |
| 2 | Chig Okonkwo | 5.9 | 5000 | While Tucker Kraft will likely be more popular, Okonkwo is a little bit safer this week. Okonkwo has topped 45 yards in each of his last three games as he and Will Levis have developed a chemistry over the last few weeks as the Titans have not been able to have a consistent number two receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins. While Treylon Burks' return could have an impact on Okonkwo going forward, Burks had just one reception last week despite playing 65% of the snaps last week. The way to beat Houston is through the air as they boast a very strong run defense averaging a league-best 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. |
| 3 | Tucker Kraft | 6.4 | 4700 | Tucker Kraft is likely going to be popular this week, as he's coming off of a 4 reception 64 yard performance. There's some concerns here however. Last week, we saw both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks leave the game early, and with Christian Watson already out left the Packers very thin at the wide receiver position. It appears this week that they will get both Reed and Wicks back, and possibly Aaron Jones which could push Kraft down to the fourth or fifth receiving option on this team. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | New Orleans | 11.1 | 4600 | Even though Tommy DeVito was not sacked last week, he still has been sacked a staggering 18% of dropbacks. For reference, the league average is around 6%, while the worst team besides the Giants is only at 10%. $4,600 is a steep price, but if you can afford it, they have one of the highest upsides on this slate due to the 5+ sack upside. |
| 2 | Carolina | 8.8 | 3300 | This may be a week where you simply want to punt the defensive position. Carolina's pass defense has been great all season, but with Jaycee Horn's return they've taken it to another level. Carolina held Derek Carr to just 119 yards passing last week. The Panthers are last in the NFL in sacks which does limit their upside here this week, but all we are hoping for is 5-7 points when we are taking a defense at this price point. |
LINEUPS
As of now, we are assuming that Joe Flacco will start for the Browns. If this changes, I will update on the Sunday Morning Update, and David Njoku will be the tight end in every lineup.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH LINEUP- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 122.0)
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,200
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,600
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $5,600
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,200
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,500
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,100
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $4,700
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $9,600
- TD Carolina, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.6)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,200
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $5,600
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,200
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $7,000
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,500
- Flex RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,600
- TD Carolina, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 122.7)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,200
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE, $6,500
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,700
- WR Puka Nacua, LAR, $8,000
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,500
- Flex RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,600
- TD Carolina, $3,300