SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
The Chiefs are going to be severely shorthanded at wide receiver today as Mecole Hardman was placed on IR and Kadarius Toney was ruled out. They'll be without Toney, Hardman, Justyn Ross, and Jerick McKinnon today. This should greatly elevate all receivers who are going to see snaps, but the big one that we're looking at is Justin Watson at $5,100. Watson has seen 60%+ snaps the last two weeks and last week he had 11 targets leading the team. With Rashee Rice the only other receiver who had over 2 targets, it seems like it would make sense that the offense will go through those two players and Travis Kelce. Rice at $5,700 if you can get up to him is an intriguing play as well, but Watson is cheaper and has proven he can see the large target volume where Rice does not have more than six targets in his last seven games.
We also got good news on Rachaad White who's knee is "fine" and he is expected to play this week, and the Buccaneers added him as a precaution due to his knee temporarily locking up on Friday. White is a great play once again this week.
Trying to determine which running back to play between White and D'Andre Swift is as close of a comparison as we've had this week. They're within 0.1 of my personal projections, so trying to pick the right running back is a tough one. I think the key difference here is that going with Swift raises the floor of the lineup as it should get a share of every touchdown for Philadelphia.
Updated Primary Cash Lineup:
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,800
- RB D’Andre Swift, PHI, $7,200
- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,600
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $7,600
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $6,800
- WR Justin Watson, KC, $5,100
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,100
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,500
- TD Denver, $4,100
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (at LV) – 26.75 points
- Philadelphia (vs BUF) – 25.75 points
- Jacksonville (a HOU) – 25.0 points
Week 11 Recap
Thank you all for being accommodating last week after a difficult week dealing with a medical emergency. I’m on the way to recovering, and ready to continue to finish the year out strong.
Last week the results seemed to be all over the board with some people seeing positive results in the 30th percentile while others seemed to miss the cash mark with the primary cash lineup . Tank Dell and DJ Moore carried the team while Devin Singletary and Pollard were critical pieces to roster. Even with Cooper Kupp's disappointing day we were able to easily cash last week.
Big lesson, if you need dental work get it done, even if the pain goes away, it'll come back 10x eventually. Having to have a bone graft along with a tooth pulled was not how I envisioned last weekend going.
Total points scored- 122.96
- QB Justin Fields, CHI, $7,400- 21.2
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $6,900- 16.0
- RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,500- 18.8
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $8,200- 1.6
- WR Tank Dell, HOU, $7,000- 24.9
- WR DJ Moore, CHI, $6,800- 19.1
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $5,900- 6.8
- Flex RB Josh Jacobs, LV, $7,300- 5.6
- TD San Francisco 49ers, $4,000- 9.0
Week 12 Very Difficult Week:
This week may be one of the more difficult weeks of the year. We have a shortened slate with just 10 games on it, and 8 of the teams have a backup quarterback or rookie starting with two others having Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones (sorry Steelers and Patriots fans). Needless to say, there is not a lot of value on this slate, as we write this on Friday night.
The big question that you need to ask yourself heading into this week is what to do at the quarterback position. If you are set on having either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen as your quarterback which most people will be doing, expect that you’re going to have to make significant sacrifices with some players that you’ll likely be uncomfortable with at the wide receiver position, or maybe pay down for a less than ideal defense.
There are two ways to go about building a lineup this week. The stars and scrubs theory, of essentially just punting one position with a player such as Greg Dortch or Justin Watson and just hoping that you can get something from them but needing to be perfect from the rest of your lineup. The other theory is taking a more balanced approach and avoiding some of the highest-priced players such as Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. This can work great if one or more of those high-rostered high-priced players fails and now you have a lineup full of upside players who have a higher floor than your opponents.
So, what is the right approach this week? To be able to save the $2,200 to go from Jalen Hurts down to Gardner Minshew is incredibly appealing this week. Passing-wise, they should be in a similar situation, as while Hurts is the far more talented player, Minshew is in an ideal matchup. The only question is whether Hurts’ rushing upside can create enough distance between the two players to justify the salary. Said another way, we really need to be able to predict whether Jalen Hurts scores a rushing touchdown without sacrificing a passing touchdown. For the extra $2,200, you’re going to want an additional 5 FanDuel points at minimum, and with this week that could be like 7 FanDuel points given what you’re going to have to go to if you go with Hurts.
I wouldn’t be mad at you if you decided to take this week off.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
A lot of injuries to keep an eye on this week that could significantly change the outlook for this slate.
- Marquise Brown is questionable this week with a heel injury. This would open up significant opportunities if he were to miss as Michael Wilson has also already been ruled out. If Brown is out, both Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch see significant upgrades.
- Rachaad White was a late add to the injury report on Saturday. This is normally not a good sign especially when Saturdays are typically just a walk-through day.
- The Browns will be without Denzel Ward this week, this is a slight upgrade to the Broncos receiving group.
- The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins this week, which could open up opportunities for Tyler Boyd once again this week. The issue is that Jake Browning will get the start with Joe Burrow being out for the season, and the entire offense struggled to move the ball against Baltimore last week.
Player Chart
|
Quarterback |
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|
|
|
|
Rank |
Player |
FBG Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
22.57 |
8800 |
Picking between Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen in this game is tough as both quarterbacks should be in excellent spots heading into this week. The difference between the two is the rushing upside that Hurts has shown particularly when it comes inside the red zone as Hurts has a rushing touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games and 7 of his 10 games this season. The Bills' defense has been decimated by injuries as corner Dane Jackson is out, safety Taylor Rapp is out, while Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano two of their best defenders were already lost earlier this season and are out for the year. Prior to the last two weeks, this Eagles' passing game had thrown for 275 yards or more in six straight games. Just because they struggled against two of the best pass defenses in the NFL in Dallas and Kansas City should not be held against them. The only question is at $8,800 on a week where there is no value, can we build a competitive lineup with Hurts at $8,800? |
|
|
2 |
15.22 |
6700 |
Minshew is taking on a Buccaneers defense that is likely going to be without both of their top corners on an already bad defense as Jamel Dean has already been ruled out, and Carlton Davis is questionable. Dean has been their lone bright spot in the secondary this season for a unit that is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and are coming off of a 333 yard 3 touchdown performance to Brock Purdy who was the 5th-quarterback to top 20 FanDuel points. Minshew has risk, but coming off of the bye, the sputtering passing atack should look better this week than it has in the past few weeks. |
|
|
3 |
16.68 |
6800 |
Mayfield has been extremely consistent lately. He's not shown that he is a guy who is going to throw for 300 yards and 3-4 touchdowns, but instead what you're getting from him is a solid 240-275 passing yards with 1-2 passing touchdowns which is getting you 16-20 points each week. At $6,800, 16-20 points is more than good enough most weeks especially if there is not a quarterback who has a massive day. |
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|
|
|
|
|
Running Back |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank |
Player |
FBG Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
17.16 |
7500 |
The pricing seems off for Taylor this week, as at $7,500, he's coming off of a dominant performance in a game that he seemingly has sealed the primary running back role for the Colts. In the Colts last game, Taylor ran 23 times for 69 yards and a touchdown. While not a massive game, the touches were there and he was on the field 88% of the plays compared to Zack Moss who had just 16% of the snaps. The matchup is a difficult one against Tampa Bay, but linebacker Lavonte David is out, and Devin White is questionable this week. David is the Buccaneers' leading tackler, so without him it will be a significant loss to this defense. |
|
|
2 |
13.9 |
6600 |
This is another price that just seems off by FanDuel this week. Pacheco is coming off of a 16 carry and 19 carry performance over the last two weeks, and the Chiefs are projected to score the most points on this slate. The matchup is a good one as the Raiders have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. FanDuel's pricing model is heavily weighted off of prior touchdowns, which has been a problem for Pacheco as he has not scored in the last five games, but he did have our red-zone opportunities last week and the team is utilizing him heavily in the red zone as he has 30 carries + targets which is double the next closest player on the team. |
|
|
3 |
13.3 |
7000 |
White has been added to the injury report on Saturday and is now questionable which is alarming and means his availability is in serious question this week. Rachaad White only had 9 carries last week for 30 yards, but the game was a blowout for most of the contest and it never really felt competitive between the 49ers and the Buccaneers. The good news for White last week is he did catch six passes on seven targets, which he now has 15 or more touches in each of his last five games. The Buccaneers are in a bit of a tailspin as they've lost five of their last six games, but in the lone game that the Buccaneers won, White saw 22 touches. This should be a competitive game this week, and while White may not have the upside needed in a GPP format due to his 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season, the volume and touchdown upside should carry him enough to be cash game viable. White has scored four touchdowns over his last three weeks. |
|
|
4 |
13.9 |
7200 |
Buffalo's run defense has struggled over the last four weeks allowing 14 or more FanDuel points to every running back that they've faced, and have allowed 11 or more in eight straight. We've seen Swift have big games this season as he had 109 yards and a touchdown against Kansas City last week, and has topped 100-yards in five games this year. With the Bills having injury issues at corner, the safeties are going to need to be more focused on stopping the pass and it could open up space for Swift |
|
|
5 |
15.3 |
8000 |
Since Daniel Jones has gotten hurt, this offense has been forced to rely heavily on Saquon Barkley. Last week against Washington, Barkley had 140 total yards, which was the third time in the four games that Tommy DeVito has started that Barkley has topped the 100 total yard plateau. The issue for Saquon has been touchdowns as they've been few and far between for the entire Giants offense this season, but for Barkley he has just five touchdowns which came in just three games this season. The good news is that the three games that Saquon scored are the only three games that the team has won this season, and with the Patriots struggling at the moment, we could be in line for another competitive game for the Giants. |
|
|
6 |
11.1 |
6400 |
The Browns defense has been strong all season, but injuries are starting to become a concern for this unit. Last week, while down to their undrafted safety Ronnie Hickman and without linebacker Anthony Walker, the Steelers ran for 164 yards against this unit, although 74 of it did come on one play. For Williams, while his touches did decrease last week in a game that the Broncos fell behind, he is a player who has seen 18 or more touches in 3 of his last 4 games. His issue has been the lack of explosivenes as he has just one run longer than 20 yards this season which only went for 21 yards. The price is a good one on a week where there are not a lot of great running back options, but |
|
|
7 |
11.6 |
6600 |
James Conner is going to get some love this week, but this one is a little bit hard to understand. While the Cardinals are playing better with the return of Kyler Murray, Conner has not seen it translate to his production. He has averaged just 13 touches for 67.5 yards while catching just 2 total passes for 1 yard in his two games with Murray. The problem with Conner is that when it comes to the red zone, Kyler Murray is taking more volume than Conner as Murray has 8 carries in the red zone over the last two games compared to Conner's five. The Rams' defense is decent against the run as they've allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. |
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|
Wide Receiver |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank |
Player |
FBG Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
Greg Dortch (If Marquise Brown is out) |
7.1 |
4800 |
This is a scenario for the Cardinals where they may only have a couple of players who can catch the ball this week. Marquise Brown was downgraded mid-week from a limited participant to a did not participate on Thursday and Friday. Michael Wilson has already been ruled out for Arizona, leaving the Cardinals very thin at the wide receier spot. Greg Dortch is intriguing simply because of volume. Last week, he saw eight targets, and he was on the field for 75% of the snaps as it was Rondale Moore, Marquise Brown, and Dortch as the primary receivers. If Brown is out, look for Dortch to continue to be thrust into a big role this week. |
|
2 |
Michael Pitman Jr |
13.2 |
7600 |
Pittman is seeing tremendous volume even in difficult matchups. The Colts have faced Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, and New England over the last four games, which Carolina, New Orleans, and Cleveland are three of the five best defenses this season, while New England is an above average pass defense. This week, the Colts get the Buccaneers who may have the worst pass defense in the NFL. This opens up tremendous opportunities for Pittman who has seen 12 or more targets in three of his last five games. |
|
3 |
11.8 |
6900 |
Tank Dell is getting all of the love in Houston, but it's easy to forget about Nico Collins and how great he was pre-injury as he had 80 or more yards in four games and topped 140 yards in two games this season. At $6,900, he's a player who had 11 targets last week was more than Dell's 10, and is still going to have a big role in this offense. The Jaguars did defend Collins well back in Week 3, but that was with Tyson Campbell who will miss this game. Collins will be lined up against second-year 7th-round pick Montaric Brown who has struggled mightily this season in limited playing time. Collins should also have a significant size advantage as he should have 4 inches and 25-30 pounds on Brown. |
|
|
4 |
9.7 |
5800 |
Another value play this week as Rashid Shaheed should start to see additional upside with Michael Thomas sustaining an injury. Last week, we saw Shaheed have 9 targets, and while he was unable to do much with them amounting just 24 yards, the yards will come for Shaheed as he is a player that 16.9 yards-per-catch on the season and not the 4.8 that we saw last week. He's the type of player that even with Thomas he possessed significant upside, but with Thomas out, he could be in line for a big a day this week. |
|
|
5 |
11.2 |
7100 |
Calvin Ridley is a guy who most people have just completely written off after some early season struggles. However, over this last six games, he has eight or more targets in four of them, with the only two games he failed to do so being against elite pass defenses in San Francisco and New Orleans. Last week, we saw how good Ridley can be with 102 yards and 2 touchdowns as he played a major rTrevor Lawrence's best day of the season. The matchup is a good one, as the Texans have allowed eight receivers to top 70 yards over their last six games. |
|
|
6 |
13.9 |
7500 |
At $7,500, the price is just a little bit too high for Thielen, who has seen his volume continue to be high as he has 10 or more targets in five of his last six games, but at just 9.6 yards-per-catch, he's basicallly a high-priced tight end at this point. He still leads the team in red zone opportunities, but has not been able to find the end-zone over his last four games. |
|
|
7 |
16.6 |
8800 |
Expect Brown to be popular this week, but this is not a week that I personally want to build around him. At $8,800, he's a guy who's difficult to fit in with the lack of value, but more importantly, the matchup is not all that great. Buffalo has done a great job of stopping number one wide receivers including Mike Evans (3 receptions for 39 yards), Garrett Wilson (2 receptions for 9 yards and 5 receptions for 34 yards), Ja'Marr Chase (4 receptions for 41 yards), Tyreek Hill, and Christian Kirk (6 receptions for 78 yards). Even with the injuries at the corner for the Bills they have two elite safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. This is a stay away spot for me, but it is a risk that you should be aware of going into this slate is that a big game from Brown will put you behind as I expect him to be 30%+ rostered. |
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Tight End |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank |
Player |
FBG Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
11.3 |
6100 |
This is a similar situation to Sam LaPorta early on in the season. It is an emerging young tight end that FanDuel has not reacted fast enough based on their changing roles. Eventually, McBride will be up near $7k and we will have a difficult decision to try to find the next emerging tight end, but at the moment he is a player who has 90 yards or more in two of his last four games, with one of the games he failed to do so being the disastrous Clayton Tune game. With Kyler Murray back, McBride has seen 7 and 9 targets and while he only had 43 yards last week, the Rams are a defense that McBride had performed well against even before the Zach Ertz injury as McBride had 62 yards in their first meeting this season. |
|
|
2 |
8.2 |
5700 |
Njoku is flying a bit under-the-radar, but it's likely that he is the Browns' top receiving target while Dorian Thompson-Robinson is their starting quarterback. In the two games that Thompson-Robinson has started, Njoku has 22 targets including 15 last week. The issue last week was that Njoku had some very uncharacteristic drops which only allowed him to gain 56 yards last week. In a difficult environment such as Denver, expect this offense to work through their tight end against the team that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. |
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|
Team Defense |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank |
Player |
FBG Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
New England |
11.3 |
4500 |
Bill Belichick against a rookie undrafted quarterback is almost an auto-start when it comes to fantasy defenses. Tommy DeVito has been sacked an astonishing 20 times in his 3 starts this year, and while he is coming off of his best performance to date, he has thrown three interceptions in those three games. After being sacked by the Commanders nine times last week who do not have a strong pass rush, the Patriots should be able to get to Devito at minimum four to five times this week with upside of much higher. |
|
2 |
Denver |
11.9 |
4100 |
Denver has played well against Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II twice over the last month. While Dorian Thompson-Robinson did enough to beat Pittsburgh last week, there is a reason the Browns went out and signed Joe Flacco. We all saw how DTR's first game went against Baltimore earlier this season in which he threw three interceptions and was sacked four times. Denver has a significant home field advantage in this one especially coming off of the last second win against Minnesota last week to breed life into this team and their fans. |
|
3 |
Houston |
11.9 |
3300 |
They're the cheapest defense that can be considered this week. Which on a week needing value, punting at the defense position is not a bad strategy. |
LINEUPS
As of now, we are assuming that Rachaad White will both miss this game, if this changes, I will update on the Sunday Morning Update.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH LINEUP- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.5)
If Marquise Brown is active
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,800
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $7,400
- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,600
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $7,600
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $6,800
- WR Rashid Shaheed, NO, $5,800
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,100
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,500
- TD Houston, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 1.B ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH LINEUP- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.9)
If Marquise Brown is out
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,800
- RB D’Andre Swift, PHI, $7,200
- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,600
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $7,600
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $6,800
- WR Greg Dortch, ARI, $4,800
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,100
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,500
- TD New England, $4,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 122.3)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,800
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $7,400
- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,600
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $8,800
- WR Rashid Shaheed, NO, $5,800
- WR Greg Dortch, ARI, $4,800
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,100
- Flex RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $7,500
- TD Denver, $4,100
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 117.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Gardner Minshew, IND, $6,700
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $7,400
- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,600
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $8,800
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $7,600
- WR Greg Dortch, ARI, $4,800
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,700
- Flex RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $8,000
- TD Denver, $4,100
