SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
No changes this week, as it appears Amon-Ra St. Brown is active which would have been the only switch to Josh Reynolds if he was inactive.
Best of luck everyone.
As always, please provide any feedback on this article to knotts@footballguys via email or twitter.com/devinknottsfbg
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Buffalo (vs PIT) – 30.0 points
- Tampa Bay (vs ATL) – 28.25 points
- Philadelphia (at ARI) – 27.25 points
- New Orleans (vs SEA) – 25.75
Week 4 Recap
Week 4 was an interesting week, and one that the decision to go with Zach Ertz instead of T.J. Hockenson almost cost us. Hockenson was 60-65% rostered, and with him putting up 35.9 points, the primary cash game ended up still finishing in the top 40-45% of lineups.
QB- Josh Allen- 24.52
RB- Jonathan Taylor- 2.8
RB- Saquon Barkley- 17.2
WR- Josh Reynolds- 17.6
WR- Drake London- 2.7
WR- CeeDee Lamb- 18.7
TE- Zach Ertz- 13.7
Flex- Josh Jacobs- 32.0
Team Defense- Arizona Cardinals- 12
What went right:
- Josh Jacobs was obviously huge, as he was the counter to be able to even compete with the T.J. Hockenson lineups. Without him, it would have been a clean wipeout of the day.
- Josh Reynolds was a good play with 17.6 points, but honestly I just didn’t see both him and Hockenson in the same lineup as I felt there was too much risk with the Lions in what could have been just a complete letdown game.
- Zach Ertz continued to be solid, as getting 13.7 points is something that I will never complain about. Ertz continues to be a red zone machine as
What went wrong:
- Jonathan Taylor was a complete miss. It’s going to take a significant price decrease for him to get back into the lineup for a while.
- Drake London struggled, which was a bit of a surprise given that the Falcons still won the game.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
A lot of injuries to keep an eye on this week that could significantly change the outlook for this slate.
The Falcons are a bit of a mess. Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on injured reserve this week with a knee injury. Kyle Pitts will also miss this game with a hamstring injury. This leaves the Falcons incredibly shorthanded but will likely need to turn to a combination of rookies Tyler Allgeier and Drake London. Allgeier looked solid last week as he amounted 84 yards on just 10 carries against a depleted Browns defense. The problem for Allgeier is he’s facing a much more difficult Buccaneers defense this week and while he’s a value at $5,700 is not cheap enough for consideration. Drake London is intriguing however, as it’s expected that Atlanta will need to come from behind in this game and be throwing frequently.
Keenan Allen will miss another week with a hamstring injury. Mike Williams should once again be the top option in Los Angeles as they head to Cleveland. Last year these two teams had an epic 47-42 thriller in which Williams dominated with 165 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mac Jones is doubtful this week with an ankle injury. Rookie Bailey Zappe will get the start, and Zappe did not look awful last week as the Patriots kept the offense very basic for the rookie in his first start. This is a situation where the beneficiaries are likely going to be the running backs as expect New England to take a run-heavy approach to try to beat the Lions who have one of the worst run defenses in football.
David Montgomery will miss this week with an ankle and knee injury. Khalil Herbert will get the start this week. Like Jamaal Williams, FanDuel priced him appropriately at $7,200 coming with Herbert coming off of his 20 carry 157 yard performance against the Texans last week. This is a tough one to swallow as Herbert is more expensive than David Montgomery was last week.
The Bills are going to be shorthanded this week as Jamison Crowder, Jake Kumerow, and Dawson Knox are all out, while Isaiah McKenzie is questionable this week although it appears he might be able to play. All of these injuries should simply consolidate the offense in what could be a blowout performance by the Bills. Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis both should be in line for big games this week.
Detroit is a bit of a mess as well, as D’Andre Swift is still out, so Jamaal Williams will draw the start. Williams’ price has just risen too much to trust him at $8,300 this week. At the receiver position, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with an Ankle injury, and D.J. Chark and Quintez Cephus are both out. If St. Brown is out, Josh Reynolds once again becomes a great play. T.J. Hockenson is a solid GPP play, as the price is just too high for cash games given his performance last week.
Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston are both out for the Saints this week. This should give more targets to Chris Olave, but his price at $6,900 makes it somewhat difficult to trust the rookie with Andy Dalton throwing to him. Alvin Kamara should return this week after missing last week, and while his volume has not been there compared to 2020
Cash Game Strategy- Week 5- Difficult Week
For some reason, this just appears to be one of the hardest weeks of the season. In a lot of weeks, FanDuel has done a really poor job of pricing players and reacting to news fast enough giving us a plethora of cheap options that are tremendous value plays. This week, we seemingly get none of that, as there are almost no players worth considering this week.
At the quarterback position, we wrote about it in length last week that there really are only a handful of quarterbacks that we are considering at the moment given how Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson have separated themselves from the rest of the quarterbacks given their rushing ability and volume. By paying up for one of these players compared to taking a mid-range guy like a Tom Brady, it limits the amount of flexibility that you have in your lineup.
To make matters more difficult, the players that are a value at the running back position are players with big names, that have struggled so far this season in Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette. Assessing whether or not to play them this week can be tricky as while they’re cheap, and in good matchups, they’ve both struggled at times this season. Meanwhile you have some unproven guys who historically have been in committees in Rhamondre Stevenson and Jeff Wilson who are both in great matchups and are strong cash game plays this week
The most difficult decision that you have to make all week is definitely at the wide receiver position. Determining whether to take a player such as Cooper Kupp, completely changes your lineup build. The question you’re going to have to ask yourself this week is whether Kupp + a player such as Drake London at $15,700 salary, outscore a combination of A.J. Brown and Christian Kirk at $100 cheaper. For me, I play the cash games with a floor mindset instead of chasing huge upsides. This isn’t going to work every week, and almost did not work last week in going with the more conservative player in Zach Ertz over T.J. Hockenson, but the floor of Cooper Kupp compared to players such as A.J. Brown or Christian Kirk or whoever you like in that range is just so much higher.
Week 5 Player Rankings
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
26.8 |
$9,000 |
Even in a bad week last week, Josh Allen had 24.52 points in a game that was marred by a downpour. Allen is expensive, but as we talked about last week, the pricing differential between him and the mid-tier is not a wide enough gap. The only quarterback that the Steelers have faced that is close to Allen is Joe Burrow and they allowed 338 yards passing with two touchdowns while also allowing Burrow to run for 47 yards. Allen is in a prime position with the Bills having a significant amount of injuries to once again put the team on his back. |
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2 |
24.9 |
$7,800 |
We saw last week what Brady can do when he has his full compliment of weapons as he threw for 385 yards and 3 touchdowns in a loss to Kansas City. Now, some of that was game script dependent as they fell behind early and ran the ball only 6 times against the Chiefs. This week is essentially a must-win for the Buccaneers who are just 2-2 to start the year. The Buccaneers take on a Falcons team that has struggled at times against the pass as they allowed an average of 289 yards and 2.3 touchdowns to Geno Smith, Matt Stafford, and Jameis Winston. |
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3 |
18.2 |
$8,600 |
Hurts struggled last week against the Jaguars in a game that was marred by torrential downpour. However, Hurts was able to salvage a poor passing game with still 10 points rushing the ball as he found the end-zone and ran the ball a staggering 16 times. The passing was not great as he threw for just 204 yards with an interception, but the weather played a significant factor into that. This is a scenario where we aren't going to overreact based on one week, and Hurts who was coming off of consecutive 300+ performances has that upside every time he takes the field. The matchup is a mediocre one, as outside of the Cardinals being embarrassed Week 1 to Patrick Mahomes II, their secondary has shown significant improvements against Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield. |
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4 |
24.1 |
$6,800 |
If you want to go super cheap this week, Carson Wentz is going to be the player that you should target. Wentz over the last two weeks has struggled, but he has topped 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in two games this year. The biggest issue has been pressure that the Commanders have allowed as he has been sacked 11 times over the last two weeks facing two of the best pass rushing teams in football in Dallas and Philadelphia. This week, Wentz gets the Titans who are by no means bad at rushing the passer, but their secondary has major holes. Tennessee has allowed 300+ yards passing in three consecutive games, and this should be a prime position for Wentz to get back on track at just $6,800 which allows you a lot of flexibility this week. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
18 |
$7,300 |
Is it just me, or is FanDuel begging you to take Dalvin Cook this week at just $7,300. While Cook has yet to have that signature breakout game, the volume has been consistent as he has 17 carries or more in three of his four games with the only game he failed to do so was a 24-7 blowout against Philadelphia. This week, Cook gets the best matchup he's had all season facing the Chicago Bears who seemingly are unable to stop anyone on the ground as they have allowed 127 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs which is third in the NFL this season. |
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2 |
18.5 |
$7,000 |
Alvin Kamara returns this week after missing last week due to injury and it could not be better timing. The Saints are 1-3, and are going to be without two of their best offensive players in Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston which means that they're going to need to turn to Kamara in what is a premier matchup. The Seahawks are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (134), and have allowed 100-yards or more to every team they've faced this season. Volume is always a concern with Kamara, which is partially why he is just $7,000, but this is a week where they have to depend on the running back to deliver. |
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3 |
14.6 |
$6,500 |
A lot of people look at the San Francisco backfield and just say that they don't even want to bother with it. Historically, this has been an offense that has been marred with unpredictability, lack of information, and inconsistency. However, over the last three weeks, it appears that Jeff Wilson has solidified this job in San Francisco into him becoming a primary running back. With Tyrion Davis-Price out once again this week with an ankle injury, the 49ers only have Jordan Mason and Marlon Mack who have a combined one carry behind Wilson. Deebo Samuel had been playing the backup running back role, but even he only is averaging 3.5 carries per game over the last two weeks. |
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4 |
13.8 |
$7,800 |
Leonard Fournette is a player that I will admittedly never get right, however he is likely going to be popular this week, so it makes worth of noting the player. Fournette has struggled the last two weeks, averaging just 2.1 yards-per-carry, but he has seen an uptick in receiving as he has averaged six receptions in each of the last two weeks. What is going to make most drawn to him is that the Buccaneers are big favorites this week at home with all of Tampa Bay's weapons being back on the field. This should increase Fournette's touchdown equity which is critical on FanDuel for your running back to find the end-zone. Fournette when he is playing well as we saw in Week 1 against Dallas can be one of the best running backs in football, however he can be extremely volatile especially on FanDuel where it is not a full PPR site. |
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5 |
12.3 |
$6,000 |
Stevenson is not typically a player that we would want to target given the committee approach in New England. However, based on a difficult pricing week, and a lack of top options at the running back position, Stevenson is cash game viable for Week 5. Stevenson is averaging 13 carries per game over his last two weeks, and is excelling with the expanded opportunity as he is averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry. Adding to Stevenson's value is his receiving ability as he is averaging 4 receptions per game over the last two weeks. This week, the Patriots get to face the Lions who have the worst defense in football and are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs as they've allowed 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Expect Stevenson to find the end-zone this week as the Patriots attack the Lions with a run-heavy approach. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
13 |
$9,500 |
Look, $9,500 is a crazy price for just about any wide receiver. However, no player has the floor or upside that Cooper Kupp has. Kupp has topped 90-yards in 19 of his last 21 games, and has topped 14 FanDuel points in 16 straight games. The consistency that you get from Kupp is unbelievable, and while it is difficult to fit him into your roster, he is a solid play seemingly every week. The only challenge here, is that there are other wide receivers with similar upside who cost less, but what you're paying for in Kupp is the floor. So, if your opponent has a player such as a Stefon Diggs who comes with a little more risk, but has just as high of upside, has that upside game, you're essentially overpaying for Kupp. |
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2 |
13 |
$5,700 |
With Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson out this week, the Falcons seemingly have very little to get excited about on offense. London should be in an excellent spot after being disappointing last week. Poor performances are a part of the risk when it comes to rookie wide receivers, and London is no different, but he did have a difficult matchup going up against Denzel Ward for most of the game last week. |
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3 |
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$8,600 |
There is a lot to like about Diggs going up against a Steelers secondary that is quite weak. The Bills are projected to be the highest scoring team this week, and based on some of the injuries that they have, the team is going to need to rely on Diggs to achieve those expectations. The key difference between Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp comes down to just consistency. Diggs has as much upside as any player on this slate based on all of the injuries in Buffalo, but Diggs has too many of the games like we've seen the last week where he has between 60-75 yards and 4-7 catches. This is something that we never have to worry about with Cooper Kupp for the most part. When it comes to touchdowns, Kupp is the primary option for this offense while in Buffalo there are a number of different options including Josh Allen rushing the ball for a score. |
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4 |
Josh Reynolds (If St. Brown is out) |
13.8 |
$6,400 |
Josh Reynolds went completely underlooked this past week, as most of the action went to T.J. Hockenson, but Reynolds quietly had his own strong performance with 7 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. With Amon-Ra St. Brown questionable this week and could very likely miss, Reynolds becomes a top play if St. Brown is out. Bill Belichick is not going to find a way to shut down T.J Hockenson after his dominant performance, which means even more volume could go Reynolds way. |
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5 |
10.3 |
$7,400 |
With Keenan Allen out, Mike Williams will be the focal point of the Chargers offense this week. Williams gets the benefit of going up against Denzel Ward this week, who so far on the season has been one of the worst corners in football in a surprising decline from the 2021 Pro Bowler. Ward will be significantly undersized compared to Williams who is 6'4 220 pounds compared to Ward who is only 5'10 190 pounds. Williams dominated the matchup last year with 8 receptions for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. |
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6 |
18.1 |
$5,900 |
Curtis Samuel has been disappointing the past two weeks after being one of surprise receivers over the first two weeks. The reason he has struggled largely comes down to pressure against Carson Wentz who we mentioned has been sacked 11 times over the last two weeks. Samuel is very rarely the top read in the route tree, so if Wentz is under consistent pressure, he is not going to be able to cycle through to Samuel as often. This week, Wentz should have more time to throw the ball against the Titans and at just $5,900 the price is a very good one. |
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7 |
10.3 |
$7,200 |
After a somewhat slow start to the year, CeeDee Lamb has turned into the receiver that we expected him to be this year as over his last two games he has 87 and 97 yards scoring a touchdown in each of those two games. The problem for Lamb this week is that the matchup is a difficult one as the Rams defense as Lamb will likely be matched up against Jalen Ramsey for a majority of this game. While the matchup is a difficult one, the price is still a very good one. |
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8 |
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$7,300 |
Deebo Samuel is going to get a lot of love this week, but there are some concerns heading into this week. Deebo as a running back is starting to become less and less from a volume perspective as he has stated he wants to be a wide receiver. Samuel has just 8 total yards rushing over the last two games and while the receiving numbers have been impressive, at 73 yards and 115 yards, this is another one where much like last week with Josh Jacobs, the prop number simply doesn’t make sense. Deebo Samuel’s total receiving prop is at 55.5 yards which is the same as a player such as Adam Thielen. At $7,300, while most sites have Deebo projected significantly above 55.5 yards, I think the industry as a whole is going to be overhyped on Deebo. He’s a fine play, but he’s not a must play as most sites have him. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
8.8 |
$5,500 |
At just $5,500, Tyler Higbee is going to be T.J. Hockenson of last week, where 60%+ of the field has him in their lineups. Higbee has been outstanding with catching 10 passes this past week and topping 60 yards in each of his last three games. If there is some concern, it is that he has not scored a touchdown this season, and is third in red zone targets on the season. |
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2 |
9.2 |
$5,700 |
David Njoku has established himself as the second option in Cleveland and starting to show dividends off of the contract that Cleveland committed to him in the offseason. Njoku has 14 catches over the last two weeks, topping 70 yards in each of those two games. For Cleveland to be competitive, they're going to need to throw the ball this week, and Njoku should be in a good spot considering the linebackers of the Chargers are the weak spot. |
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3 |
9.5 |
$5,900 |
Zach Ertz continues to be consistent this season as he has six or more receptions in each of the last three games. Ertz also benefits from having the most targets in the red zone as he has ten targets while the next closest receiver has just five targets on the year. In a game in which should be high-scoring Ertz should get multiple looks to score this week. |
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Team Defense |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
Buffalo Bills |
9.6 |
$5,000 |
Paying up for a defense is going to be difficult this week with there seemingly to be a lack of mid-options this week. Buffalo facing off against the Steelers offense in rookie Kenny Pickett should be a brutal day for the Steelers. The Bills lead the NFL in interceptions, are allowing the fewest yards per game, and have allowed the second-fewest touchdowns on the season. |
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2 |
Washington Commanders |
9.6 |
$3,200 |
The Commanders defense has struggled at times this season, but this is still a defense that has talent on the defensive line and has amassed 9 sacks so far this season. With Taylor Lewan out for the year for the Titans, and an above average run-defense, expect the Commanders to try to force Tannehill to beat them this week. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.8)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,000
- RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $6,500
- WR, Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,500
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200
- WR Curtis Samuel, WAS, $5,800
- TE Tyler Higbee, LAR, $5,500
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $7,300
- TD Washington Commanders, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.9)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,900
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, $6,000
- RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $6,500
- WR, Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,600
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200
- WR Mike Williams, LAC, $7,400
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,700
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $7,300
- TD Washington Commanders, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 119.3)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Carson Wentz, WAS, $6,800
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,000
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $8,900
- WR, A.J. Brown, PHI, $8,000
- WR Curtis Samuel, WAS, $5,800
- WR Mike Williams, LAC, $7,400
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,700
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $7,300
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,100