Fantasy Overview - Week 5

RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Taylor, IND

• Current PPR rank: RB21
• Drafted as: RB1/RB2
• Opponents played: SEA, LAR, at TEN, at MIA
• Record: 1-3
• Upcoming schedule: at BAL, HOU, at SF, TEN

Jonathan Taylor struggled to gain much traction in the first three games of the season. He is performing like the first nine games of the 2020 season - good, but not great. It wasn't until after Week 10 when he came alive and finished as the RB4 in PPR rankings from Week 10-17. If last week is any indication, Taylor may be on the rise. He finished with 114 total yards, three catches, and one rushing touchdown. Nyheim Hines had some ball security issues which solidified Taylor as the primary rusher all game long. Taylor's 58 carries for 274 yards (4.7 YPC) is 9th in the league heading into Week 5. He has 40 more carries than Hines and is showing no signs of letting that margin decrease.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 52.50 RB21
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 56.00 RB17 - Finished RB6 (254.80)

Result: The needle is pointing up for Taylor. He started slow but the volume has been there. Once he starts to accumulate the touchdowns, all will be well with the Colts' top rusher. He has top-10 upside moving forward.

Alvin Kamara, NO

• Current PPR rank: RB15
• Drafted as: RB1
• Opponents played: GB, at CAR, at NE, NYG
• Record: 2-2
• Upcoming schedule: at WAS, bye, at SEA, TB

The Saints and their offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season in their first year moving on from Drew Brees. They have struggled to gain yards and are ranked 28th in total yards and 27th in total first downs. Michael Thomas (ankle recovery) isn't expected back until Week 7 or 8 at the absolute earliest and there is no indication of how well he will play. Alvin Kamara should bounce back from his slow start. In his career, he averages close to a touchdown per game which is phenomenal. He is getting volume (three games of 20+ carries) and with Tony Jones Jr. (ankle) out with an injury for a few weeks, Kamara has little to no competition for carries and usage. Taysom Hill's goal-line presence is a slight concern but ultimately Kamara will get his.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 57.90 RB15
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 127.70 RB1 - Finished RB1 (377.80)
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 79.90 RB5 - Finished RB9 (250.65)

Result: Don't give up on Kamara, he is too good to slump much longer. The scores will come.

Miles Sanders, PHI

• Current rank: RB34
• Drafted as: RB2
• Opponents played: at ATL, SF, at DAL, KC
• Record: 1-3
• Upcoming schedule: at CAR, TB, at LSV, at DET

Miles Sanders has been a disappointment so far and now he's receiving stiff competition from rookie Kenneth Gainwell. Sanders' 37 carries is 18 more than Gainwell, however, the two are mired in a committee approach with Gainwell getting the best of Sanders with two scores compared to Sanders' zero. In Week 4 Gainwell was the better back with 89 total yards, 6 receptions, and a score while Sanders was merely pedestrian in his box score. Sanders is a player who may not rebound to the point of expectations and could wind up falling out of favor as a startable fantasy option. For now, he is a risky start but he's not quite droppable based on his previous successes. We've been waiting for Sanders to find his groove for two seasons now. He has shown signs of life but hasn't found consistent success. This remains the same in 2021 and now the competition is making it tougher to trust him as a fantasy option.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 38.40 RB34
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 NA 46.40 RB27 - Finished RB23 (170.40)

Result: There is a reason for concern with the emergence of Kenneth Gainwell in the backfield. He could bounce back, but it's possible that Sanders does not reach the expectations that we've had for him the last two years. Keep on your roster but he may not be a decent start until he shows that he can be the team's top running back.

WIDE RECEIVER

Robby Anderson, CAR

• Current rank: WR70
• Drafted as: WR3
• Opponents played: NYJ, NO, at HOU, at DAL
• Record: 3-1
• Upcoming schedule: PHI, MIN, at NYG, at ATL

After finishing WR20 with 95 receptions in 2020, Robby Anderson was thought of to be a mainstay in the Panthers offense. So far, that has not been the case. Aside from a 57-yard touchdown reception, Anderson has been a big disappointment on an otherwise productive Panthers offense. Why has Anderson been missing in the box score? He is second on the team in snap percentage (76%, third in target share (15%), and has been 84% or higher in routes run percentage each of the first four games. He shouldn't be struggling, but he is. His reception percentage is a paltry 45% (10 receptions on 22 targets) by far the lowest of all wide receivers on the team. Sam Darnold has been targeting and connecting with D.J. Moore early and often. It seems to be only a matter of time before Anderson rebounds. Will he have 95 receptions again? That's doubtful, especially if Christian McCaffrey's can stay healthy. Still, Anderson is capable of being a top 30 wide receiver, he just needs to catch the passes that are intended for him.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 31.20 WR70
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 71.80 WR9 - Finished WR

Result: Better days are ahead, but don't expect him to come close to his 95 catches from last season. One or two good games in the next four will catapult him back into the top 35.

Calvin Ridley, ATL

• Current rank: WR22
• Drafted as: WR1
• Opponents played: PHI, at TB, NYG, WAS
• Record: 1-3
• Upcoming schedule: NYJ, bye, at MIA, CAR

Calvin Ridley was supposed to be the Falcons' top receiver by a longshot, dominating targets, scoring consistent touchdowns (56% touchdown per game career numbers). He has essentially dominated targets (42 vs Kyle Pitts 26) but his scoring tendency has dropped off (1 score) and his yards per catch has fallen off a cliff (9.7 in 2021 vs. a career 13.6). The Atlanta offense has struggled to gain traction but Week 4 saw Matt Ryan toss four touchdown passes (none to Ridley) with a home game against the Jets in store for Week 5. Ridley is ranked WR22 which isn't horrible, but expectations were much higher. Perhaps some of the reasoning behind the slow start is the change at offensive coordinator/head coach, not to mention the emergence of Cordarrelle Patterson as an offensive weapon RB/WR joker role. Ridley can and likely will rebound and all it may take is one big game to right the ship.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 58.50 WR22
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 80.50 WR3 - Finished WR5 (281.50)

Result: Calvin Ridley is too good to slump much longer. Look for him to have a big game in the near future and be right back in the thick of things as a top 15 wide receiver, if not higher.

Ceedee Lamb, DAL

• Current rank: WR29
• Drafted as: WR1-2
• Opponents played: TB, at LAC, PHI, CAR
• Record: 3-1
• Upcoming schedule: NYG, at NE, bye, at MIN

We're seeing a drop-off in passing yards from the Cowboys offense due to the ground game having a big impact and early-season success. Plus, the defense has been playing well and the passing game isn't needed. In short, Lamb's lack of top-flight numbers is mostly due to the game script. Lamb started off strong with 8 and 7 receptions to begin the season but only five in the last two games total. If Dallas continues to run rampant and take early leads there will be less of a need to throw the ball, which affects Lamb. This could even itself out but that's what we're seeing so far. Having a quality receiver of Amari Cooper's level opposite him, consuming the same target share percentage is also a factor that isn't in his favor. Can things turn around? Absolutely, but we also could see Lamb be a very good wide receiver on a team that doesn't need to pass the ball often to win games.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 53.60 WR29
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 65.20 WR17 - Finished WR24 (211.70)

Result: CeeDee Lamb has elite receiver skills, however lack of volume has been a concern in two of Dallas' first four games. This could continue to be a factor if the ground game continues to be strong and the Cowboys don't need to rely on Dak Prescott's arm to win games. He remains the top team target share at 23% and should be a force going forward but it may be difficult for him to finish as a top 5 wide receiver.

Robert Woods, LAR

• Current rank: WR41
• Drafted as: WR2
• Opponents played: CHI, at IND, TB, ARI
• Record: 3-1
• Upcoming schedule: at SEA, at NYG, DET, at HOU

Robert Woods has two scores but his 15 receptions through four games are less than desired. Cooper Kupp has been Matthew Stafford's top target by a long shot (46 vs Woods' 25) and he has come through as a touchdown scorer as well, with five touchdowns. Woods is right at the top of snap share (90%), team target share (19%), and routes run (85%). Analytics suggest that it's just a matter of time before Woods rebounds with a strong outing or two to get him right back into the mix as a productive fantasy receiver.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 46.00 WR41
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 60.40 WR18 - Finished WR13 (247.10)

Result: Don't fret too much with Robert Woods. He is right where he needs to be. The scores and fantasy production should soon come. It would be a surprise if he continues to slump as a fantasy receiver.

TIGHT END

George Kittle, SF

• Current rank: TE10
• Drafted as: TE1
• Opponents played: at DET, at PHI, GB, SEA
• Record: 2-2
• Upcoming schedule: at ARI, bye, IND, at CHI

George Kittle is currently the 10th ranked tight end despite not having scored yet. He is dealing with a calf injury that could hinder his ability for the next few weeks, but we've seen Kittle find success with a variety of different ailments. He is second on the team in targets (29), his snap percentage is 97%, his team target share is 21% (second behind Deebo Samuel's super-high 34%), and his route run percentage is a respectable 77%. In other words, he's doing what he needs to and if he finds the end zone he'll be right back in the conversation as a top 5 tight end.

2021 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 42.60 TE10
2020 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 49.40 TE7 - Finished TE19 (125.10) in 8 games.

Result: As long as the calf injury doesn't hamper him too much, he should bounce back as a top-five tight end based on his current utilization. One big game could put him right back in the mix.

Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, NE

• Current rank: Henry TE19, Smith TE22
• Drafted as: TE2
• Opponents played: MIA, at NYJ, NO, TB
• Record: 1-3
• Upcoming schedule: at HOU, DAL, NYJ, at LAC

The Patriots had only 15 receptions to tight ends in all of 2020 so they made a move in the offseason to acquire two capable tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. So far, the duo has not been too reliable in fantasy production. Smith is third on the team in targets (21) and Henry is 5th (18). Looking deeper into the offense, Henry is consistently seeing more snaps than Smith (73% vs 53%) but Smith has done more with his snaps in terms of team target share (13% vs Henry's 12%). Smith is also running fewer routes 37% to Henry's 65%. So which one is the better fantasy option? Slight lean towards Smith because he has done more with his chances, but Henry is seeing more chances. Could this flip-flop as the season wears on? This is New England we're talking about, anything is possible. Jakobi Meyers is by far the team's top target with 41 and then it's a committee of receivers that include Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry. We may see Smith or Henry have a big game any given week, but it doesn't seem like any particular tight end is breaking out anytime soon.

Result: It seems like a stretch that any one Patriots tight end will become a consistent fantasy threat unless an injury turns the tide. Even then targets will still be a battle with two or three other receivers, not including running backs. It may be time to move on from both unless you have deep benches and the ability to stash.