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Week 17 Preparation
Congratulations to those who dominated the playoffs up to this point or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. Several big names failed to come through for us in Week 16, including Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Cooper Kupp, Jerry Jeudy, Khalil Shakir, Travis Kelce, and Trey McBride. If you managed to navigate several roadblocks of poor play, congratulations because it was a minefield. You looked at bad luck in the face and said, "Is that all you got?" There will be some teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but a great deal of luck is also involved. Congratulations if you made it this far. Many strong teams will be watching from home without a team competing in Week 17. If that's you, don't be too hard on yourself; winning a championship is not easy. After all, you need to:
- Get into the playoffs with a few strong players, consistent play, and good depth.
- Take advantage of good matchups and fade tough ones.
- Hope for good luck on your side and bad luck for your opponent.
- Navigate the refs.
For those of you who did make it...Week 17 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. (Hopefully, the majority of you do not have a Week 18 Championship). Maybe you have a lot of money on the line. Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends, or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on taking down your opponent and lifting the trophy.
Historically, home running backs are more effective.
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Saquon Barkley (vs DAL), Bucky Irving (vs CAR), Kyren Williams (vs ARI), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (vs NYG), James Cook (vs NYJ), Tank Bigsby (vs TEN), Chase Brown (vs DEN), Joe Mixon (vs BAL), and Brian Robinson Jr (vs ATL) all have home games this week.
Let's not forget about matchups.
Each of these teams allows at least one rushing touchdown per game to running backs this year: Carolina, New Orleans, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Jacksonville, and San Francisco.
Opponents for each
- Carolina at Tampa Bay - The Panthers have allowed four straight 100-yard rushers and five of six. With the NFC South still up for grabs, Tampa Bay has everything to play for. Bucky Irving is one of the better running back starts this week, and Rachaad White also has some value.
- New Orleans vs Las Vegas - The Saints have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns since Week 7, including three last week against Green Bay. They are a mess with injuries, and their competitive spirit might be gone for the season. Will the Raiders want to finish strong or secure a high draft pick? They won last week vs. Jacksonville, if that's any indication. With the injury to Sincere McCormick, Alexander Mattison's role will increase and is worth a look in your lineup this week. In a stretch, Ameer Abdullah also has some value in PPR leagues.
- Chicago vs Seattle - The Bears have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 9 and have lost some of their defensive luster over the last few weeks. With Ken Walker III (ankle) likely out, Seattle will turn to Zach Charbonnet to salvage their playoff and division chances.
- Cincinnati vs Denver - The Bengals have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs in their last five games. The Broncos have several options at running back, but Audric Estime took a big step forward last week and should continue to get work with Javonte Williams. While there is no specific go-to back, the matchup is favorable. Look for the hot hand to see more action. Last week, that back was Estime.
- Dallas at Philadelphia - Saquon Barkley is on a mission to not only reach 2,000 yards rushing but to eclipse the single-season record of 2,105 yards held by Eric Dickerson since 1984. Barkley needs 268 yards to break the record.
- Jacksonville vs Tennessee - The Jaguars have allowed seven rushing touchdowns to running backs in the last five games. They are limping to the end of the season and allowed 119 yards and a touchdown to Tony Pollard in their earlier Week 14 matchup. A Week 15 ankle injury to Pollard opened up more touches for Tyjae Spears last week, who finished with two touchdowns on 13 touches. Pollard played last week and should be good to go again in this strong matchup. Both Tennessee backs could prove to be productive with a stronger lean toward Pollard.
- San Francisco vs Detroit - The 49ers have quietly allowed four 100-yard rushers in their last five games and will have to face Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions offense in Week 16. The 49ers defense has taken a downward turn in the last half of the season. What was projected to be a tough matchup has become a favorable one for championship week.
What to do at quarterback?
For the most part, you probably have your quarterbacks in place, and they likely came through for you in the clutch for you to be playing in this trophy match this week. For those of you who might be in the market for a quarterback due to injury or looking to block your opponent who has an injury at quarterback, or maybe you are looking for a matchup play for your superflex league? Here's a look at who might be worthy of starting in Week 17, especially in two-quarterback leagues.
Bryce Young, Carolina at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, including a 298-yard effort from Young in Week 13. Young has played well since his return to the starting lineup and has 11 touchdowns in his last seven games.
Kenny Pickett vs Dallas. If Hurts (concussion) is out for Week 17, the Eagles will turn to Kenny Pickett to keep pace in the busy NFC playoff race. Dallas will be focused on stopping Saquon Barkley and it could lead to some play-action wins for Pickett. Dallas has allowed 19 passing touchdowns in their last 11 games, including seven multiple-touchdown games allowed in that span.
Mason Rudolph, Tennessee at Jacksonville. Rudolph has had four touchdown passes in his last two games, and this week's matchup against Jacksonville is one to exploit, regardless of who plays quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, with a league-leading 275 yards and 1.8 touchdown passes allowed per game.
Are there any waiver pickups that you can potentially start this week?
In most cases, the last player to earn a spot in your starting lineup is the one who can shift the points total in your favor when the last snap is made on Monday Night Football. Which player is the difference-maker? It could come from the last player you insert into your lineup. Here are a few options if you're in dire need of help or need a replacement due to a Week 16 injury.
Kenny Pickett QB, Philadelphia vs Dallas. If Jalen Hurts (concussion) does not clear the protocol, the Eagles will turn to Pickett to try to keep pace with the Lions, Vikings, and Packers in the NFC. Dallas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.
Aaron Rodgers or Tyrod Taylor QB, NY Jets at Buffalo. If Aaron Rodgers (ankle) is out, the Jets will turn to Tyrod Taylor to play spoiler against Buffalo. The Bills have been injury-bitten lately, especially on defense. They have allowed over 1,000 passing yards and 9 passing touchdowns in the last three games. Rodgers may tough it out, but either way, this is a favorable matchup with Buffalo's defensive injuries in the secondary.
Jalen McMillan WR Tampa Bay vs Carolina. The Buccaneers rookie wide receiver has been lights out over the last three games. If he's available, he is an immediate claim. He has four touchdowns and 14 receptions in that span and has earned the opportunity for an increased role. The matchup against Carolina is one to exploit.
Chig Okonkwo TE, Tennessee at Jacksonville. Okonkwo quietly has back-to-back games of 10+ targets. He is the TE3 in that time, which coincides with Mason Rudolph getting the start for Tennessee. He has a great matchup this week at Jacksonville.
Alexander Mattison RB, Las Vegas at New Orleans. Sincere McCormick is likely out, which opens the door for Mattison to assume the lead-back role against a team ready to end the season.
Trey Benson RB, Arizona. James Conner suffered a knee injury last week, and with the playoffs out of the picture, he may be shut down, opening the door for Trey Benson. Benson was drafted to be Conner's eventual replacement. It is looking like he will get a chance to showcase his abilities in Week 17 at LA Rams.
Diontae Johnson WR, Houston vs Baltimore. With this game being on Christmas Day, this is an early game, even for early games. Johnson barely knows how to get to the Texans facility, let alone understanding the playbook. What he does have is revenge on his mind. Wouldn't it be fitting if Johnson scored against Baltimore, the team that didn't want him?
Cowboys wide receivers, Dallas at Philadelphia. Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin may see additional work this week if CeeDee Lamb's shoulder injury shuts him down for a few possessions or half the game. Cooks may see the most volume, but Turpin has the ability to make a big play.
Las Vegas D/ST - They will face a dilapidated Saints team, which includes Spencer Rattler and his struggling ways.
Indianapolis at NY Giants - The Colts will play the Giants, which have been one of the worst teams in the league since they made the decision to move on from Daniel Jones. They are a rudderless ship at quarterback. Drew Lock threw two pick-sixes last week, and he has 1 passing touchdown with 4 interceptions in three games as the Giants' starter this season.
Thank you for reading. Questions, comments, and start/sit decisions are always welcome. Hit me up on "X", formerly Twitter.
