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9 Thoughts Worth Thinking As We Enter The Fantasy Playoffs
I like to follow stats, trends, matchups, and a little thing I like to call a hunch. These thoughts are based on those observations.
- Could Alvin Kamara be gold in the playoffs? - Derek Carr is out with a fractured wrist, which elevates either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener into the quarterback role for the Saints. Kamara has averaged 4.2 receptions per game with Derek Carr under center, but with either Rattler or Haener, his receptions per game jump up to 5.6. Kamara was already a fairly strong playoff running back, but even with the recent emergence of Kendre Miller, he still has value, especially as a receiver, on a team hit hard by injuries at wide receiver.
2. Breece Hall and the Jets have a great playoff schedule, but he may not play again this year - The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention. Anything they do on the field moving forward this season is either in a spoiler role or an opportunity to see what the future holds. Hall has a knee injury and missed Week 14. The Jets backfield was split 50/50 between Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis with Davis getting a slight edge thanks to a rushing touchdown. He also had a receiving touchdown the week prior. The Jets play at Jacksonville, vs LA Rams, and at Buffalo for the playoff stretch, which is a favorable schedule vs the run. Don't be surprised if an announcement comes saying Hall will be rested for the rest of the season. If so, plan on a split backfield. Braelon Allen seemed to have the upper hand for most of the season, but Davis' success could put a wrench into those plans.
3. These quarterback bottom dwellers could pay dividends in the playoffs for superflex leagues? - The Panthers Bryce Young, Giants Drew Lock, Titans Will Levis, Cowboys Cooper Rush, and Raiders Desmond Ridder all have the opportunity to provide a potential punch in the fantasy playoffs. All five are in the Top 6 for quarterback strength of schedule for the playoffs (Weeks 15, 16, 17). Young may be the most likely to produce. He has been QB11 over the last three games and has appeared to have turned the corner on his career trajectory with the Panthers. Carolina has two home games against Dallas and Arizona followed by a road game at Tampa Bay.
4. Detroit to have more success on the ground for the playoffs? - The Lions have been an outstanding offense this year, averaging 32 points per game with 49 offensive touchdowns (22 rushing, 27 receiving). Chances are, that will continue to some extent but the ground game may outperform the pass game for the next three weeks. Detroit's next three opponents (vs Buffalo, at Chicago, at San Francisco) average out to be the lowest average for strength of schedule for quarterbacks in the playoffs. Conversely, those opponents are the highest average for strength of schedule for running backs. Could Detroit still have a potent passing game and rushing game? Absolutely, but if you're into numbers and statistics, the lean is to favor the ground game. Either way, this looks like a positive outlook for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
5. You can rely on Jauan Jennings for the stretch run - With Brandon Aiyuk (knee) sidelined since Week 8, Jennings has emerged as a key target for the 49ers. He leads the team in targets and receptions, and is tied with George Kittle for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. As Deebo Samuel Sr.'s production has waned, Jennings' role has become even more crucial. With Brock Purdy's health improving and a favorable upcoming schedule, Jennings' fantasy value is on the rise.
6. If the last four weeks are any indication, these are the tight ends to lean on - Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Trey McBride, and Jonnu Smith have each had at least two games of 10+ targets in the last four weeks. Bowers and McBride have accomplished the feat three times while Njoku and Smith have done it twice. In that span of four weeks, this group has 9 total touchdowns despite zero from McBride, who has only one solitary touchdown all season - and it was a rushing touchdown at that. Despite that, this is the group to lean on. Bowers, Njoku, and McBride account for 2nd, 3rd, and 6th most receptions among all players in the league since Week 11.
7. Consider Jaylen Warren as a flex option - If you're looking for a last entry in your lineup, perhaps the Steelers' Jaylen Warren can give your team a boost. Warren has 20 targets over the last five games with 15 receptions for 155 yards - and that's just receiving. His ground totals in that span include 66, 41, 45 (and a touchdown), 9, and 47. That's RB21 since Week 10. The Steelers schedule for running backs is not favorable with road games at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, and home vs Kansas City, however, the game script could work in his favor if Russell Wilson elects to keep his throws in the short-intermediate range for increased accuracy.
8. Can you rely on James Cook for the playoffs? - James Cook struggled against the Rams last week rushing only six times for 20 yards with no scores. Things won't get any easier for him this week against Detroit. The Lions have the lowest fantasy points allowed per game since Week 10, and that includes the three scores against them by Josh Jacobs last week. The Bills and Lions know how to put points on the board. Both teams average over 30 points per game, the Vegas over/under is 53.5 with Detroit being -2.5 favorites at home. The question is, will Cook come through with a respectable outing? Detroit has allowed more than half of their rushing touchdowns to two players. Josh Jacobs and Ken Walker III each had three rushing touchdowns against them. In seven games this year the Lions have not allowed any rushing touchdowns to running backs. Looking past Detroit, Buffalo will host New England in Week 16. Perhaps in the snow, we don't know. Surprisingly, the Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 8. Week 17 is home vs the Jets who will be looking to end their season. Perhaps Cook will finish with a bang against the Jets who have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10.
9. Be slightly concerned about CeeDee Lamb for the playoffs - The Cowboys are limping to the end of the season and their schedule is at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, and vs. Philadelphia. That may look like a favorable schedule for Lamb and the Cowboys but looking deeper, this trio of teams have allowed only 11 touchdowns to wide receivers since Week 8, combined. So, 11 touchdowns in 19 games between them. That's just over 0.5 touchdowns per game allowed to wide receivers. Philadelphia and Carolina have each allowed only three touchdowns to wide receivers since Week 8, and Tampa Bay has allowed five. Lamb has one touchdown since Cooper Rush took over duties under center in Week 9. Lamb is still an alpha receiver on a team that will pass regardless of who is playing quarterback, but the numbers suggest a possible let down.
Good luck this week. Here's hoping you all Survive and Advance.
Thank you for reading. Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome. Follow @JeffHaseley