Sunday Morning Update
Update #1 7:57 AM EST
Here's what we know so far:
Kyler Murray- This situation seems like a true game time decision, although it seems more unlikely that he will play than not.
DeAndre Hopkins- Looks like he's going to be Likely OUT this week (more on that later)
George Kittle- Active but will be on a "pitch" count per Adam Schefter
Deebo Samuel- Active, but a lot of concern. Adam Schefter tweeted "Team also uncertain how long each player will be able to go, and is hoping there are no setbacks."
Elijah Mitchell- Active, but a lot of concern. Adam Schefter tweeted "Team also uncertain how long each player will be able to go, and is hoping there are no setbacks." Same tweet as Deebo.
Christian McCaffrey- Active, but there are some concerns from Dr. Jene Bramel on how many touches McCaffrey will receive. It seems like a wait and see week for McCaffrey this week. He's fine if you want to take a chance in a GPP that he gets the full amount of touches.
James Robinson- Out- Carlos Hyde will get the start if Robinson is unable to go. The problem with Hyde is that the matchup is a tough one against Buffalo, and the price is not low enough to want to force him in.
Tua Tagovailoa- Out- Tua will serve as the backup for the Dolphins this week as he was unable to go with a finger injury.
So what does this mean?
The biggest definitive news is the Tua news. With Tua being out, this greatly helps Myles Gaskin who had 10 receptions in the last game that Jacoby Brissett played. It should be a slight negative to Jaylen Waddle as Brissett has less upside than Tua. Don't expect the 300+ yard potential game that you could possibly see out of Tua.
Regarding the news on the Cardinals, this seems like a complete avoid this week. If you want to take a chance on Christian Kirk I think they're fine, but not great plays as the likely Colt McCoy situation just has low upside in general.
Lineup Change- The key lineup change here, is that the more I look at this, the more I want to play Tyreek Hill. It kills me not to play Josh Allen, and for anyone that wants to play him, I don't blame you. Here's what I'm going with. As always please use the information in this article to make the best decision for your lineup.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,300
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,600
- RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,100
- WR Jarvis Landry, CLE, $5,900
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,600
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,500
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN $4,500
- Flex RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,200
- TD Kansas City, $3,300
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Buffalo (at Jacksonville) 31.5 points
- Dallas (vs Denver) 29.75 points
- Baltimore (vs Minnesota) 28 points
- Kansas City (vs Green Bay) 27.5 points
- Miami (vs Houston) 26 points
Week 8 Recap
Week 8 was a good week for both the Saturday Primary Lineup and the Sunday Morning update, and good to get back on track after a tough Week 7.
What went right:
- Josh Allen was really worrisome in the first half as the Bills had just three points at halftime, but ended up having an offensive outbreak in the second half with 23 points scored. Allen played a key role in that with a rushing touchdown and two passing touchdowns including one to Stefon Diggs who was also in the lineup.
- Eli Mitchell as a punt play was critical in order to have success this week. Mitchell ended up with 137 yards and a touchdown at just $5,800 is going to be one of the better punt plays of the season.
- Taking Cooper Kupp out of the lineup and replacing him with Chris Godwin ended up paying off even though the extra money we saved to upgrade Chuba Hubbard to Dandre Swift didn’t work out. Godwin was excellent as he had 140 yards and a touchdown this week.
What went wrong:
- The swap to D’Andre Swift was just a terrible decision. Swift was a last minute upgrade due to Jamaal Williams being out and being one of the worst defenses against the run this season. This game was never close as the Eagles blew the Lions out very quickly in this one.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.
- Deebo Samuel is questionable with a calf injury, and most signs are appearing that he is not going to play this week. If he doesn’t play, both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle (if he returns) are firmly in play.
- Eli Mitchell is questionable with a rib injury. Kyle Shanahan indicated that Jeff Wilson’s status will likely determine whether Mitchell plays this week or not, so if Wilson is active he becomes intriguing.
- Aaron Rodgers is out with Covid, Jordan Love will start. If you’re interested in Jordan Love, play him on DraftKings where he is just $4,400. He’s not terrible on FanDuel at $6,000, but you probably don’t need to go down to him. Significant downgrade to the entire offense (Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, etc)
- Tyrod Taylor will start for the Texans. Brandin Cooks should see a slight upgrade as he had 21 targets in the 2 games that Tyrod started earlier this season.
- Saquon Barkley is out again with an ankle injury. Devonta Booker at $6,300 is too expensive on FanDuel this week to play in cash games as the player is not great.
- It looks like Kenny Golladay could return for the Giants. If he starts, he is intriguing at just $6,000.
- Christian McCaffrey is questionable to be activated this week. This one is intriguing as if McCaffrey is a go, he is likely going to get his full compliment of snaps. Probably don’t need to go there in cash games, but in a GPP he’s very interesting.
- Jameis Winston is out with an ACL injury. It appears that Trevor Siemian is going to start ahead of Taysom Hill this week. If that changes, Taysom Hill could become the top quarterback this week.
- Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are questionable. Lamb is dealing with an ankle injury which appears to be more serious than Coopers. If one of these players doesn’t pay (we’re going to assume Lamb will not), then play the other guy.
- Kyler Murray is questionable with an ankle injury. If he’s not able to go, this entire offense takes a massive downgrade. If he plays the passing game should not be an issue at all.
- DeAndre Hopkins is questionable with a hamstring. Hopkins looks like he’s able to go, but with A.J. Green dealing with Covid, expect Christian Kirk to become extremely popular if Hopkins is out and Murray is in.
Full Transparency- Sunday Morning Update Is Going to Be Critical
Almost every week we say how critical it is to check back here for Sunday thoughts. For those of you that do, extremely happy that you do, but even you will realize that most weeks there are little to no updates. We’ve been very fortunate this season to have somewhat stable injuries where we know when a guy is out and when a guy is starting. Very few last minute surprises.
This week is simply not the case. This article has significant potential to change this week based on the number of injuries that we talked about in the section above. Hopefully we will get more clarity at the 3-4AM tweets that Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport typically put out otherwise there will be a lot of last minute updates.
Where to save money?
Based on your feedback, this seems to be the most popular question instead of “where should I go at running back”. If you have deep dive questions that you want to be covered, always happy to do so. Will always try to accommodate any questions or changes that you want to see where possible.
Quarterback Under 8k:
Jalen Hurts- $7,800
Most people this week are going to go with either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but at $7,800, Jalen Hurts is a player who can provide some potentially much needed savings this week. This is anticipated to be one of the higher scoring games of the week, and you’re really going to rely on Hurts’ rushing ability here as the Chargers are the league’s worst run defense on the season while boasting a top-five passing defense.
Hurts is an excellent GPP play this week due to his high ceiling with his rushing ability, but when you’re taking a quarterback who has thrown for under 200 yards in three of his last four games, it makes you pause as the overall quarterback numbers have not been pretty for Hurts, but he’s finding a way to get it done in fantasy due to timely rushing touchdowns as well as some early season performances that look vastly different than the quarterback he’s been recently. For $7,800 he’s in play, but look to Allen or Jackson who have a higher floor.
Running Back Under 7k:
Damien Harris- $6,600
Damien Harris is an excellent play that is really getting no coverage this week which is somewhat surprising. Most people at this point have completely written off Bill Belichick’s running backs which is probably fair, but Harris seems to have broken the mold as he has averaged 17.3 carries per game over his last four games and has scored four touchdowns in that same time period.
Myles Gaskin- $6,100
Myles Gaskin is going to be popular this weekend. A combination of the matchup against Houston with his usage rate increasing dramatically over the last two weeks (19 touches and 15 touches). The usage directly correlates with Malcolm Brown’s injury, but Gaskin’s snap count still hovers in the 50-60% range. He’s an ok punt play, but if value opens up, you can very easily look elsewhere due to his floor being fairly low as they could come out and only give him a handful of carries.
Wide Receiver Under 6k
Jarvis Landry- $5,900
With Odell Beckham being released, Jarvis Landry is primed to step up in a big way. Landry is coming off of one of his worst games in his career, as even though he was statistically fine (5 receptions for 65 yards), Jarvis had a number of drops and a critical fumble that led to the Browns losing last week. Landry still had 10 targets in the game and at just $5,900 getting a guy who is going to see 8-10 targets almost assuredly is a great price. The matchup is a good one as the Bengals are coming off an embarrassing performance last week where they allowed 405 passing yards to Mike White.
Jaylen Waddle- $6,100 (close enough)
With DeVante Parker placed on IR, this offense is going to run through Jaylen Waddle. In the three games that Parker has missed, Waddle has 27 targets 184 yards and two touchdowns. At just $6,100 he’s another wide receiver who is going to be targeted 8-10 games much like Jarvis Landry above. Waddle in a very favorable matchup against Houston should be a key focal point as the Dolphins continue to try to develop their first-round wide receiver.
Tight End Under 6k
Albert Okwuegbunam- $4,500
At just $4,500, Albert Okwuegbunam is stepping in to replace Noah Fant this week and seems to be one of the better options on this slate. Okwuegbunam is a limited tight end, but Denver is taking on a Cowboys defense that has struggled against mediocre tight ends this year as they have allowed 57 yards to Tyler Conklin last week, 55 yards to Evan Engram, 53 yards/1 touchdown to Zach Ertz, 90 yards/2 touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski. Noah Fant leads the NFL in tight end red zone targets, so expect Okwuegbunam to at least have the opportunity to catch a touchdown which is all we are hoping for with a $4,500 punt play.
Tyler Conklin- $5,200
Tyler Conklin has come out of nowhere the last two weeks as he’s averaging 64 yards per game. The Ravens have been susceptible to tight ends this season as they are coming off of a C.J. Uzomah 91-yard 2 touchdown performance. Conklin is probably more of a GPP play due to his big play nature.
Dan Arnold-$5,100
Dan Arnold is an interesting player once again this week. Arnold who came over via trade to the Jaguars, has developed a nice role in this offense as he has 23 targets over his last 3 games. The problem with Arnold this week is he’s taking on a Bills defense that have been dominant against opposing tight ends as only one tight end this season has topped 50 yards which was Travis Kelce who had just 57.
Defenses Under 4k
Kansas City Chiefs- $3,300
The jury is still out on Jordon Love and whether he is ready to be an NFL quarterback. In the preseason, inconsistent in the best way to describe him as he had moments where he looked good where there were other moments where he would make some questionable decisions such as throwing into double coverage, not realizing pressure, or panicking. The Chiefs defense is by no means great, but taking a quarterback who is facing a first-time starting quarterback at just $3,300 is too good to pass up.
KEY CASH CORE
Stefon Diggs- $7,600
The positive touchdown regression for Diggs is finally starting to come as he has now scored a touchdown in each of their last two games. This week, the matchup for Diggs and this Bills offense is a great one as they have allowed the 5th most yards to opposing wide receivers and are coming off of a week where Tyler Lockett absolutely dominated this Jaguars defense. Diggs will likely draw shadow coverage against Shaq Griffin this week, but Griffin is more of a shadow corner by necessity as Tre Herndon and Tyson Campbell are both below average corners.
Nick Chubb- $7,600
Nick Chubb is coming off of a poor performance last week in which he was coming back from injury and facing a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh. With another week to heal, he should be ready to get back to his elite form this week. Chubb has topped 80 yards rushing in every game this season with the exception of last week.
Outside of a performance in Week 1, the Bengals have not faced a top tier running back, so while their overall stats are decent (only allowing 68 yards per game rushing), there are some signs that this defense may not be as good as it otherwise projects to be. They have struggled mightily against pass catching running backs which is not Nick Chubb’s forte, but could increase his upside here if the Browns look to him with Kareem Hunt still out.
Josh Allen- $8,800
The decision between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is a critical one this week. Josh Allen is the answer simply because of the floor that he presents in a positive matchup this week against the Jaguars. The difference simply comes down to the matchup between the two as Jackson is facing a very difficult Minnesota defense has been very good against mobile quarterbacks. The Vikings strength is their safeties and linebackers led by Erik Kendricks and Harrison Smith. Expect the Vikings to sell out to stop the run for Jackson. Obviously, this is easier said than done as Jackson is the best in the NFL at rushing the football as well as has shown upside through his arm this season, but at $8,300 look for Jackson in better matchups than this one.
Meanwhile, Allen is facing a Jaguars defense in which everything looks promising for a huge game. The Bills are projected to be the highest scoring offense this week projected to score 31.5 points. Allen is facing a Jaguars defense that has been absolutely shredded this season. Jacksonville has allowed four 300+ yard passing games and even in the games that this did not occur, you had players like Geno Smith completing 20 of 24 passes, and Tyrod Taylor passing for 291 yards. Allen has accounted for 2+ touchdowns in every game since Week 1.
LINEUPS-
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.2)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,000
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,600
- RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,100
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $6,100
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,600
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,600
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN $4,500
- Flex RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,200
- TD Kansas City, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Footballguys Optimal Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.52)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,000
- RB Cordarelle Patterson, ATL, $7,000
- RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $6,100
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $7,900
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,500
- WR Hunter Renfrow, LV, $5,600
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN $4,500
- Flex RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $7,400
- TD Dallas, $3,900
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – SMALL GPP- MIA/HOU Stack (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.9)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, $7,300
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,600
- RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $7,400
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,500
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,800
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $6,100
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN $4,500
- Flex RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,200
- TD Kansas City, $3,300
