Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Spread: Seattle -4.5
- Seattle Implied Team Total: 25.5
- Philadelphia Implied Team Total: 21
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
This is a weird Super Bowl: despite a full season, it still feels like we don't really know how great either team is. On the Seattle side, the targets are extremely narrow, as so much of the offense runs through both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ken Walker III. Meanwhile, on the Patriots' side, the big question is what type of offense we will see this week. Drake Maye has not been able to re-create the exceptional play he had during the regular season, as he's completing just 55.8% of his passes and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, which is 2.0 yards lower than in the regular season.
Admittedly, DraftKings screwed up the pricing on this slate. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be far more expensive than his current $11.6k/$17.4k pricing, given the upside that he possesses compared to the rest of the field. What this is going to do is that it is going to cause a vast majority of players to play Smith-Njigba at captain. Smith-Njigba realistically should have been in the $13-$14k range just based on his 10-reception, 100+ yard upside.
So the question is whether you could fade Smith-Njigba altogether? It's certainly a viable strategy, as he's topped 100 yards in just two of his last ten games, and what you get from Smith-Njigba is more of a high-floor compared to the rest of the field. However, New England is arguably the best scheme team in the NFL, and could they try to scheme a way to force Seattle to use different options than Smith-Njigba? The way that I'm personally approaching this week is either playing him in the captain, or completely fading him. It just seems like the middle ground of having him as a flex spot just seems to be a narrow margin path to victory this week.
Last year, we absolutely crushed it by fading the obvious top play in Saquon Barkley and instead focusing on Jalen Hurts and Xavier Worthy, which paid off. This is a similar spot this season, where Smith-Njigba is the clear number one target, but is also someone you could take the risk on to fade.
Injury Roundup
Drake Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that had him as a limited participant over the last two weeks, but he is not on the injury report and should be good to go this week. While Maye has been dealing with the shoulder injury, it has increased his rushing upside, often to choose his legs in critical third downs throughout the postseason.
Sam Darnold answered most questions about his oblique injury against the Rams, throwing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The big news for Seattle is that Nick Emmanwori seems good to go after a practice scare that caused him to miss Thursday's practice with an ankle injury. The slot corner/safety is critical to a lot of what the Seahawks are able to do.
The big news for New England is that Robert Spillane will play this week after suffering an ankle injury against Denver. Spillane has emerged as the Patriots' best run stopper.
Captain Considerations
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Drake Maye
- Ken Walker III
- Hunter Henry
- AJ Barner
- Mack Hollins
- Rhamondre Stevenson
New England Patriots Showdown Players
Quarterback
Drake Maye (Captain or Flex)
If you believe that the Patriots are going to win this game, you have to like the upside of Drake Maye. Maye has struggled throughout the playoffs, largely because the Patriots have been unable to protect him; he's been sacked five times in each of his three playoff games. Despite lackluster passing numbers, he has excelled with his legs, running for 60+ yards in two of his three games this season. Given both teams' excellent run defenses, he has a real chance to be the game's top rusher this week. While Seattle's passing defense has been great for most of the season, the big question is the schedule that they've faced. Outside of Matthew Stafford, who threw for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns and 374 yards and 3 touchdowns, the quality of competition that the Seahawks have faced since Week 10 has been lackluster. They've faced Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford three times, Cam Ward, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Bryce Young, and Brock Purdy twice.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Flex or Low-End Captain)
TreVeyon Henderson (Flex DraftKings Only)
It's hard to trust anything related to TreVeyon Henderson this week, since in their last game against Denver, he saw just 6% of snaps. Running against one of the league's best run defenses, the Patriots are going to need to heavily lean on Stevenson, not necessarily as a runner, but as a receiver, which was something that emerged over the second half of the year. No running back has topped 100-yards rushing against Seattle all season, and only the games truly elite (McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams) have been able to top 70 against this defense, so it's unlikely that Stevenson is going to have tremendous upside, but on a single game slate, all you need is a touchdown which at 235 pounds Stevenson has nine touchdowns on the year.
For TreVeyon Henderson, the only reason he is in consideration this week is the price on DraftKings; $3,800 for Henderson is a ridiculous price for a running back who, prior to last week, had at least 10 touches in 11 of 12 games. There's a non-zero chance that last week's outlier performance was driven by the weather and the Patriots just trusting their defense and the more reliable Stevenson, but they may need to look at Henderson's upside this week if they are struggling to move the ball.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs (Flex)
Mack Hollins (Captain or Flex)
Kayshon Boutte (Low-end Flex)
New England's wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired. While Stefon Diggs will likely see the most interest from the field simply based on name value and his five 100+ yard performances this season, he's simply disappeared this postseason, while his price has remained high at $8,600 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel. Throughout the playoffs, he's averaging just 6.6 yards per catch, which simply is not good enough for a receiver who has just five touchdowns on the season.
Of the New England receivers, Mack Hollins is likely the most intriguing. The way to attack the Seahawks is against Riq Woolen on the outside, as Devon Witherspoon is an elite coverage corner opposite Woolen. It's likely they're going to match Woolen up with Hollins simply based on size, as the 6-4 and 220-pound Hollins is likely too big for Witherspoon, and more of a matchup that the Seahawks want, given Tariq Woolen is also 6-4. They also likely will be more afraid of Kayshon Boutte's explosiveness, but Hollins has had several big games this season. The lack of touchdowns is the only reason that he is priced as low as he is. If he can find the end zone, he's going to be a player who you're going to need in your lineup to have a chance this week. Even if he doesn't score, he very easily could get 40-50 yards, which at his price could get him into an optimal lineup, especially if you're trying to take a stars/scrubs approach.
Kayshon Boutte is a wildcard. He's been the Patriots' top receiver throughout the playoffs, but that's mostly due to his 30- and 40-yard receptions. He's entirely big-play dependent, but expect him to be popular this week, given that big-play potential and being in the mid-range, where there is not a lot of upside this week. The challenge for Boutte is that he's going to be facing arguably the league's best cornerback in Devon Witherspoon, which should make it challenging to find an explosive play. Some may take him as their captain this week in hopes that he catches one or two long passes, but he's likely only a play if you're taking a Patriots stack, or if you're going with a five-Seahawks/one-Patriot build and need him to fit in based on price. He should not be a core player on your roster, given the matchup and how highly rostered he will be.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (Captain or Flex)
If there's a weakness in this Seattle defense, it is that they've been unable to defend the tight end this year. Allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, since Week 10 they've allowed at least 9 DraftKings points to the following players, Trey McBride (30.7), Colby Parkinson (9.4), Gunnar Helm (11.1), T.J. Hockenson (11.9), Kyle Pitts Sr. (15), Terrance Ferguson (12.3), Jake Tonges (9.9), and Colby Parkinson (9.2). Hunter Henry has been noticeably unproductive the last two games, but was the second leading receiver on the Patriots this season, and led the team in receiving touchdowns. This is a spot where New England may often look to the tight end to get their second-year quarterback back on track and complete some early passes.