#Trendspotting: Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Now #Trending (Players)
• Now #Trending (Teams)

Tweets of the Week

ATL D Weeks 1-8 ranked 32nd in scoring rate per drive (53.8%), 31st in TD rate/drive (35.9%) and 32nd in 3D conversion rate (53.0%).

Two games since delegating the D, they are first in 3D conversion rate (19.2%), 5th in scoring/drive (19.0%) with 0 TD on 21 opponent drives.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 18, 2019

Commentary and Action Items

Deciphering the beginning of a trend vs. a typical anomaly can be difficult. When there is an event that led to the change (such as a new play-caller), that can be a signal of "trend over anomaly." But Atlanta's defense gave us eight bad data points before the most recent two good ones. Considering Tampa Bay's offense is a capable unit, don't be scared to go away from its key pieces.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both in play, but Godwin has cooled off lately.

#Ravens defense since adding Marcus Peters on the perimeter:

* Russell Wilson 20-of-41, 241 yds, 5.8 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
* Tom Brady 30-of-46, 285 yds, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
* Ryan Finley 16-of-30, 167 yds, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT
* Deshaun Watson 18-of-29, 169 yds, 5.8 YPA, 1 INT

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) November 17, 2019

Commentary and Action Items

With Baltimore trending up and the L.A. Rams trending down, Monday night could be a tough spot for last year's NFC champions. The Rams have also struggled under pressure this season, which doesn't bode well against Baltimore's surging defense.

[return to top]

Now #Trending (Players)

In this section, we'll review the top performers at each position over the past four weeks and identify players trending up or down. The tables show each player's stats from Weeks 8-11 and are sorted by fantasy points per game.

Quarterbacks

Surprise Appearance

Names like Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill surprise. With Jones, we know he's had two high-ceiling games in this stretch, but Tannehill's presence here is due to more steady production. Tannehill hasn't scored fewer than 21.3 fantasy points in his four starts. Tannehill has Jacksonville at home this week, travels to Indianapolis next week and then begins the fantasy playoffs with two positive matchups (at Oakland, vs. Houston), so this trend of low-end QB1 play may hold.

Notable Absence

Deshaun Watson does not appear on the list above, due mostly in part to a 7.7-point outing in Baltimore last week. Watson does have six QB1 performances this season, but his upcoming schedule makes it hard to bank on a resurgence. Houston hosts Indianapolis this week, hosts New England next week, and hosts Denver in Week 14.

Watson's next "plus" matchup is at Tennessee in Week 15 before ending the fantasy season with the ultimate quarterback-friendly spot in Week 16 (at Tampa Bay).

Running Backs

Surprise Appearance

Melvin Gordon looked sluggish in the first few games after he returned, but he's quietly emerging. His production has been touchdown-heavy (the four touchdowns he has in this four-game sample tie for the league lead among running backs in that stretch. It's difficult to envision Gordon remaining an RB1 the rest of the way, especially with the following schedule: BYE, at Denver, at Jacksonville, vs. Minnesota, vs. Oakland). Those are all neutral-to-difficult matchups.

Notable Absence

Despite the Dallas offense performing above expectations this season, Ezekiel Elliott hasn't been the locked-in RB1 we expected him to be. Note that the fantasy scoring above is PPR, which is a contributing factor to why Elliott does not appear. He only has four receptions in the team's past four games and only 28 on the season.

There are better things to come for Elliott, though. After New England this week, Dallas hosts Buffalo in Week 13 and then travels to Chicago in Week 14.

Wide Receivers

Surprise Appearance

It may not be surprising that D.J. Chark is among the top wide receivers in the last four weeks since he has been a solid player all season. But his status as fantasy football's WR5 on the season is a huge surprise when compared to his preseason average draft position.

And Chark may not slow down either. Jacksonville's schedule is very friendly to opposing passing games (at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. L.A. Chargers, at Oakland, at Atlanta).

Notable Absences

After a couple of months of the season, it looked like Cooper Kupp was a candidate to be the overall WR1 in any given week. But he has cooled off considerably as of late.

After running hot to open the year, Cooper Kupp has been the WR58, WR31, WR2, WR88 and WR43 (pending MNF) over his past five games.

Kupp has a 20% target share and .44 WOPR over that span as opposed to 28% and .62 over his first five games.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 18, 2019

The Rams schedule (vs. Baltimore, at Arizona, vs. Seattle, at Dallas, at San Francisco) isn't doing him a ton of favors either.

Not seeing Godwin here was also a surprise. It's been a tale of two seasons for the Tampa Bay wide receivers:

• Godwin Weeks 1-7: 24.2 fantasy points per game (WR1)
• Godwin Weeks 8-11: 12.8 fantasy points per game (WR33)
• Evans Weeks 1-7: 16.5 fantasy points per game (WR13)
• Evans Weeks 8-11: 25.4 fantasy points per game (WR2)

Tampa Bay's schedule (at Atlanta, at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, at Detroit, vs. Houston) is encouraging going forward, but it's hard to see the Evans/Godwin split shifting back in a way that makes Godwin a WR1 the rest of the way.

Tight Ends

Surprise Appearance

Jacob Hollister isn't a name we're used to seeing among the fantasy elite. But his usage has spiked since Will Dissly's injury. Hollister has seen six or more targets in three of the team's last four games, highlighted by a 10-target performance last week. And he has played 80% and 78% of the snaps the last two weeks.

Notable Absence

Darren Waller has been one of the best values in fantasy football relative to preseason ADP, but his production has waned recently. His target share has come down slightly (more on that later). But the main reason Waller isn't performing as a TE1 is that hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 8 and only has three all season. Backup tight end Foster Moreau has four.

[return to top]

Now #Trending (Teams)

Let's take a look at some team-based trends over the past four weeks:

Denver Targets

There were two notable changes to Denver's passing game recently: Emmanuel Sanders being traded before Week 8 and Brandon Allen being named the starting quarterback in Week 9. Let's look at the team's target distribution before and since Week 8 (three games).

Both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were RB2s in the first seven weeks of the season, due in part to their involvement in the passing game. But neither have been viable since Sanders left and Allen took over.

• Lindsay since Week 8: 12.4 PPR points per game, 0 RB1 finishes, 2 RB2 finishes, 1 finish of RB3 or worse
• Freeman since Week 8: 6.4 PPR points per game, 0 RB1 finishes, 1 RB2 finish, 2 finishes of RB3 or worse

As a result of fewer targets going to wide receivers and running backs, the team's tight ends are seeing a larger share of the pie. The main beneficiary of that is Noah Fant. Here is how Fant's usage has changed:

• Weeks 1-7: 11% of Denver's targets; 69% of the offensive snaps
• Weeks 8-11: 27% of Denver's targets; 85% of the offensive snaps

Oakland Target Distribution

We mentioned above that Darren Waller wasn't seeing as much production. Oakland's recent target distribution is changing.

• Hunter Renfrow: 22 targets (18% share)
• Tyrell Williams: 22 targets (18% share)
• Darren Waller: 19 targets (16% share)

Tampa Bay Target Distribution

We discussed Mike Evans and Chris Godwin above. The tight ends have also been involved lately.

• Evans target share (last four weeks): 29%, 37%, 13%, 16%
• Godwin target share (last four weeks): 19%, 21%, 27%, 12%
• Tight Ends target share (last four weeks): 17%, 9%, 16%, 31%

[return to top]

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

Follow @RyanHester13