Selecting quarterbacks late in fantasy football is not a new strategy. And even though savvy fantasy managers are catching on and drafting high-upside quarterbacks earlier than in the past, there is still equity to be found in the middle and late rounds in 2023.
Consider this article a reminder that the late-round quarterback strategy is built on years of data and can still work. Last year's version of this article hit multiple bullseyes with Justin Fields (the cover boy), Trevor Lawrence, and Daniel Jones all being profits on their ADPs. Only Trey Lance was a miss, and he was injured early in the season.
These are the reasons why the late-round quarterback strategy works:
- Positional Scarcity
- Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback
- Quarterback is a Predictable Position
- Quarterback is a Replaceable Position
Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e., one-quarterback leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots).
Positional Scarcity
Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters are at each position.
- Quarterbacks: 12 fantasy starters, 24 legitimate NFL contributors
- Running Backs: 24-36 fantasy starters, 48 legitimate NFL contributors
- Wide Receivers: 36-48 fantasy starters, 52 legitimate NFL contributors
* The "NFL contributors" figures assume that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical fantasy leagues (hence the reduction from 32 at quarterback and 64 at receiver) and make assumptions that committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).
At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Here are the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a cookout, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?
- 12 sides when 30 are available
- 30 burgers when 48 are available
Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here. Get the meat first and figure out the sides later.
Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer quarterback starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.
Flat Scoring Distribution
The delta between a middling starter and a low-end starter at quarterback is notably different than a flex player in fantasy football. Below are the point differentials by position:
- QB4 to QB12: 3.5-4.5 fantasy points per game
- RB8 to RB36: 6.0-7.5 fantasy points per game
- WR8 to WR36: 5.5-6.5 fantasy points per game
The difference between a middling starter at quarterback (QB4) and a quarterback who shouldn't even be an every-week starter (QB12) is roughly 4 fantasy points per game. Conversely, the drop-off from a middling RB1 (RB8) to a borderline flex player (RB36) is 6-7 fantasy points per game.
Takeaway: quarterback scoring is flat, and scoring at the other positions drops off more sharply.
Predictable Scoring
Forecasting players at running back and wide receiver requires analysis of Xs and Os, game script, and many other factors. But in today's pass-heavy NFL, quarterback volume is more predictable. And unlike position players, quarterbacks play against an entire defense. Bad passing defenses are both identifiable and exploitable. There's a reason why DFS players tend to feel more comfortable playing a low-priced quarterback than a low-priced wide receiver or running back. And quarterbacks who can run the ball have a higher floor and ceiling in fantasy football.
The correlation between matchup and production is stronger at quarterback than at any other position. And with most NFL teams passing 30-35 times per game, quarterbacks have insulated volume.
Takeaway: On a week-to-week basis, quarterback is the easiest to predict of all fantasy football positions.
Replaceable Production
Quarterback scoring is flat, and quarterbacks are predictable. So why is the article's title "Upside Only?" Because the most fun part of drafting quarterbacks is the safety that comes with one of the more shockingly reliable backups in fantasy football history: quarterbacks on the waiver wire.
Articles, podcasts, and more focusing on acquiring waiver-wire quarterbacks are published each week across the fantasy football industry. The intent of this practice is to find a quarterback who can finish in the top-12 in that particular week. There will be highs and lows along the way, but the waiver wire typically offers QB 8-12 production if averaged across an entire season.
Takeaway: There's no need to worry about a quarterback busting as a draft pick. The production of an average starter is available for free.
The Takeaways
- Quarterback is a position with high supply and low demand.
- Quarterback scoring is flat; scoring at the flex-eligible positions drops off drastically.
- Quarterback is the easiest of all positions to predict on a week-to-week basis.
- The waiver wire is a viable contingency plan at quarterback.
Drafting any quarterback who doesn't have a top-five upside is a wasted pick. And the earlier the pick is made, the greater the ramifications to the rest of the roster (i.e., the benefit lost of selecting a flex-eligible player in an earlier round). When a quarterback selected late realizes his high-end outcome, the fantasy GMs who rostered him have a significant advantage over their league mates.
Actionable Advice
A few years ago, the fantasy football market caught on to the late-round quarterback strategy, but now it's catching on to the ideal late-round quarterback profile. Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson being selected in the top five at the position illustrate that fantasy GMs are looking for rushing ability with as much priority -- or more -- as passing ability.
But the strategy remains sound, and the cupboard hasn't been left bare. Below are the best candidates being selected QB10 or later to emerge into every-week starters, listed in order of current average draft position.
- Deshaun Watson - Last year's late-season reps were rusty and wind-influenced; good weapons and a full offseason program will yield a re-emergence.
- Daniel Jones - The weapons are poor, but rushing QBs don't need elite weapons to give us big numbers.
- Anthony Richardson - Not a real NFL quarterback yet based on his tape at Florida but a rusher that throws some can make us happy in fantasy football.
- Geno Smith - The disrespect has gone too far for a top-half QB1 from 2022 whose offense is better this year than last.
In deep/2QB leagues, don't forget about Brock Purdy. His weapons are among the league's best (just look at their fantasy football ADPs). Purdy's ADP will rise if/when he's named the starter, and he'll still be a bargain if he's being drafted anywhere beyond QB16.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.
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Rachel Tootsiepop