As fantasy football transitions more and more to PPR formats, the wide receiver position is at a premium. Having four, five, or even more wide receivers who can finish in the top 24 at the position in any given week provides a massive edge for fantasy GMs. This article aims to identify players being drafted after WR36 who have WR24 (or higher) upside on a weekly basis.

Upside running backs likely require an injury or two ahead of them to become starters for our fantasy teams. At wide receiver, though, we're seeking a combination of players who would benefit from an injury ahead of them and players who may already be on the field but could command more opportunities with high-end play.

Signs of WR1 Potential

In fantasy football, the offensive unit as a whole has a significant impact on the production of a player. For wide receivers, this is especially true as they are dependent on quarterback play. There are also additional factors that can point to top-24 WR potential:

• Offense: how good is the unit and its quarterback?
• Target Projection: how often is he on the field? Is he able to earn targets in a rich environment?
• Big Play Ability: can the player score 10+ fantasy points with one touch?
• Red Zone Prowess and Usage: a receiver often targeted on fades and jump balls has more fantasy appeal than a possession receiver

Here are a few late-round selections (WR36 or later as of this writing) and their current situations.

Comments on each player:

• Davis: The definition of a post-hype sleeper; he played through injury last year and received no credit for it in this year's price.
• Thomas: If he's not surpassed by young talent, he'll outperform expectations due to those being low.
• Addison: Minnesota's offense will throw a ton; the targets can't all go to his elite receiver teammate, can they?
• Jefferson: If not now, when? Stafford is healthy, and there is only one other wideout on the team worth discussing.
• Peoples-Jones: Sneaky good last year, improving offense; the only thing suppressing his price is Elijah Moore.

Let's take a look at what some of our staffers think about these players. First, from our "Undervalued Wide Receivers" article.

Jeff Bell on Davis:

Davis was THE breakout wide receiver candidate in 2022. It did not happen. So what’s left? A fantasy zombie! Davis battled a high ankle sprain in 2022, and his efficiency numbers cratered as the team pushed him outside his comfort zone and into a more significant role. He still finished WR36 in PPR formats. He sits as WR42 in these rankings. Despite the addition of Dalton Kincaid, the team did little to threaten Davis’ every-down role. He will be on the field in a high-value passing offense. With a return to health and facing a contract year, Davis is a worthwhile dart throw at ADP.

Christian Williams on Thomas:

Doing this dance for what feels like the eighth year in a row is risky, but many signs point to Thomas being fully healthy again in 2023. When healthy in 2022, he looked like the Thomas that led the NFL in receptions years ago. His seven targets per game were just behind Chris Olave's clip, though he was more efficient with his receptions. He found the end zone three times in just three games. He was outstanding. With Derek Carr's arrival, the Saints have their best quarterback in the post-Brees era. While Olave is almost sure to take a Year 2 jump, Thomas should provide fine fantasy performances in 2023, and there's a greater-than-zero chance that he's Carr's favorite target. At WR45, the potential reward massively outweighs the risk.

Phil Alexander on Addison:

Addison's slight frame (5-foot-11 and 173 pounds.) and sketchy athletic profile make this an off-brand pick for yours truly. But what Addison lacks in size and speed, he more than makes up for with target opportunity. The Vikings play fast (seventh in plays per game in 2002) and pass-heavy (third in pass attempts). With Justin Jefferson commanding the opposing defense's attention on every dropback, Addison is in the cat bird's seat for PPR fantasy production. And it can't hurt that most NFL Draft analysts agree that Addison has enough Tyler Lockett to his game for his skills to translate at the pro level.

And here are some more thoughts on the players listed above that were covered in the "Deep Sleeper Wide Receivers" article.

Chad Parsons on Jefferson:

Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the lone bankable receiving weapons for the Rams, but Jefferson is the next best bet. With Rounds 2 pedigree and enough NFL experience, Jefferson is in the rope window where even modest receivers make a leap to their career peak, even if a muted one.

Dave Kluge on Peoples-Jones:

Peoples-Jones quietly had a career year in 2022, amassing 839 yards and three touchdowns. While the production isn't anything to write home about, his role change was significant. Through his first two years in the league, Peoples-Jones was used almost primarily as a field stretcher. Last year, his target depth dropped significantly as he showed some versatility as a route-runner. His target share jumped to a career-high 19% as he put his first good season on tape. Many drafters expect Elijah Moore to be the team's WR2, but Peoples-Jones did enough last year to keep his role in 2023.

Summary

Wide receivers are harder to handcuff than running back. When a team's number one back goes down, the burden of replacing that workload and production is often shouldered by one or two players. When a wide receiver is injured, a team can re-distribute targets to as many as a half-dozen players or more.

Identifying late-round WR1 upside is more difficult, but the players above offer a combination of play-making talent and potential opportunity to provide a shot in the arm for the fantasy GMs who roster them. Remember: these are backups on your roster because you drafted starters early in the draft. Aim high and play to dominate your league!

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.

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