Having multiple RB1s on a fantasy team is a massive edge for a fantasy GM. This article aims to provide a second (or third) RB1 to complement the backs selected at the top of the draft.
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Because the typical fantasy roster is filled with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds, most GMs will have a true RB1 and at least one or two additional starter-quality running backs through the first 6-7 rounds. Therefore, the goal with a late-round running back isn't to find a middling starter or a flex player. It's to find a player who can provide RB1 production if his situation falls the right way. On draft day, these players will be backups on our fantasy team. Some will be backups on their NFL team. But if they receive more opportunity than expected, they could be highly useful fantasy assets.
The Recipe for RB1 Production
Potential League-Winners
Whether it's a late-round target that needs help to fulfill his potential or an elite RB1 like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, the ingredients are the same:
- Three-down talent: being on the field leads to fantasy points, as does catching passes. Running backs that don't play on third down have a more difficult path to RB1 status.
- Goal-line opportunity: touchdowns are worth six times as much as 10 rushing yards. Math is easy!
- Limited depth chart competition: again, the best fantasy assets are the ones on the field the most.
Throughout the offseason, we have released some collaborative posts on the site. One of those was asking the staff which deep sleeper running backs they like the most. Another was asking the staff about undervalued players at the position.
Note: This table assumes that the starter in front of these players is no longer in the picture. For example, in a world where Jahmyr Gibbs exists, saying that David Montgomery has no depth chart competition is obviously incorrect. But if Gibbs were out of the picture, Montgomery would be the clear number one in Detroit.
| Player | Offense | Three Downs | Goal Line | Depth Chart | Price | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | x | x | x | x | Would play every down without Robinson. Might play most as is. A value at cost with huge upside. | |
| David Montgomery | x | x | x | x | He gets all the work in a Gibbs-free world and has shown the ability to handle it. | |
| Samaje Perine | x | x | x | x | Showed last year in Cincy that he can win weeks. RB1 upside while Williams rehabs. | |
| Zach Charbonnet | x | x | x | x | x | Has standalone value as is; league-winning upside without Walker. |
The order in which these players are listed can be debated, but the list generally flows from most RB1 upside to least. And here are some highlights from the running backs articles linked above discussing some of these players:
Jeff Bell on Gibson:
Over the final ten games of 2022 for Kansas City, Jerick McKinnon averaged 5.4 targets per game—a full-season rate of 92. That number rose to 5.8 over the last five games, a period during which McKinnon's efficiency pushed him to RB2 overall. Now, with McKinnon's former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy in Washington and a young quarterback at the helm, Gibson should emerge as a primary receiving option. At RB38, any risk of remaining in Ron Rivera's doghouse seems mitigated.
Kevin Coleman on Gibson:
Prior to 2022, Gibson posted back-to-back RB12 finishes, averaging over 1,100 yards and ten touchdowns in both seasons. Unfortunately, underutilization by the coaching staff saw his role gradually diminish when Brian Robinson JrJr. returned. Despite this, Gibson exhibited moments of brilliance, producing two top-15 finishes last year. He remains one of the best PPR options at his current ADP. With Sam Howell—famed for his check-downs to Javonte Williams and Michael Carter in college—potentially starting at quarterback, Gibson could become that safety net. Coupled with the addition of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who skillfully utilizes backs with elite receiving upside (see Jerick Mckinnon), Gibson could significantly outperform his current ADP.
Drew Davenport on Montgomery:
Last year, the Lions showcased successful rushing behind a sturdy offensive line, then decided to replace their top two running backs with a rookie and Montgomery. This switch presents a massive upgrade for Montgomery's prospects, yet his draft stock seems to be sliding. Jahmyr Gibbs will undoubtedly receive substantial touches given Detroit's investment in him, but there are plenty of opportunities available and a crucial goal-line role is up for grabs. Montgomery has the talent to seize those scoring opportunities, carve out a substantial share of the backfield, and produce comparable—if not better—numbers than his tenure with Chicago. His current ADP seems to reflect his floor, leaving room for significant upside on a robust offense.
Ben Cummins on Perine:
Broncos' head coach Sean Payton's off-season maneuvers signal his intention to execute a balanced offense, favoring a strong running game. While Samaje Perine isn't an elite talent, he's a model of reliability and will share duties with Javonte Williams throughout the season. Williams' recovery from a significant multi-ligament tear last season is nothing short of remarkable. Still, it's crucial to bear in mind his injury history. Perine, a dual-threat player, stands to gain as Payton once again enhances the fantasy value of his running backs.
The Best of the Rest
This group of players is similar to the above group but lacks either the elite set of skills or the fantasy-rich offensive situation that the potential league-winners have. Players to target here could also include backups to starting running backs with a known injury history. Some of these players (Jaylen Warren and Jerick McKinnon, for instance) have standalone value already but would become every-week fantasy starters with injuries or ineffectiveness to others on their teams' depth charts.
| Player | Offense | Three Downs | Goal Line | Depth Chart | Price | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | x | x | x | x | Standalone value with Harris in the mix; the only game in town without. | |
| Jerick McKinnon | x | x | x | x | Still a three-headed backfield in KC; but he'd be the preferred RB if Pacheco were out. | |
| Tank Bigsby | x | x | x | Others to contend with in a world without Etienne but would likely lead that pack. | ||
| Jerome Ford | x | x | x | x | Would have a huge piece of the pie if Chubb went down. Opportunity is everything. | |
| Chuba Hubbard | x | x | x | Showed what he could do post-McCaffrey last year; reliable but unspectacular. | ||
| Kenneth Gainwell | x | x | x | Any chip on this offense is good; but plenty of backfield contenders if someone gets hurt. | ||
| Ty Chandler | x | x | x | Thin backfield in MIN but remains to be seen if he'd see a big piece of the work sans Mattison. |
Sigmund Bloom on Warren:
Warren pretty much forced his way into a committee with Najee Harris as the season went on last year, and all reports out of Steelers OTAs indicate that he has picked up where he left off and will make this a two-man backfield. The Steelers also started running the ball better in the second half of the year and should have an improved offense this year, boosting the value of the 1A back role.
Chad Parsons on Bigsby:
High-profile backup running backs are the type of players who can win fantasy leagues if the starter misses time. Bigsby likely wins the RB2 job in Jacksonville by October at the latest and has the athletic and size combination to replicate a high percentage of Travis Etienne's stat line. Also, Bigsby has touchdown upside even with a healthy Etienne if the backfield splits like Detroit's with Bigsby in the Jamaal Williams to D'Andre Swift role.
Dave Kluge on Ford:
Murmurs out of camp are that Ford will be in line for a larger workload in year two. The team let Kareem Hunt walk in free agency, and Ford is RB2 on the depth chart behind Nick Chubb. Chubb’s 37 targets last year were the most he’s seen since 2019, the year before Kevin Stefanski arrived. Since Stefanski arrived in 2020, there has always been a complementary back to Chubb’s early-down and goal-line role. Hunt was horribly inefficient last year, which pushed Chubb into a more prominent role. Stefanski may go back to a committee approach in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, Ford makes for a premiere injury-away target.
Phil Alexander on Hubbard:
Targeting backup running backs who play behind average starters is often a good process because the presumed starter's ADP is propped up by untrustworthy preseason workload projections. Hubbard is coming off an efficient season, came into the league as a hyped prospect just two years ago, and may not need an injury to Sanders to force an even timeshare.
The Right Way to Handcuff
"Handcuffing" (or drafting your start running back's backup as a contingency plan) has been a fantasy football strategy for years. But the traditional way of employing this strategy is flawed. Remember, the goal of fantasy football -- and our slogan here at Footballguys -- is to Dominate Your League. In a 12-team league, there are 11 losers. Don't play to stay with the pack; play to lap the field!
What does that mean in terms of handcuffing? As stated in the intro, the goal is to have multiple RB1s on your roster. Handcuffing Nick Chubb with Ford provides us with a maximum of one RB1. But drafting Chubb and then picking up Gibson, Montgomery, or Warren late gives us a chance to have two (or even three) RB1s if those late-round backs emerge. The naysayer will ask, "What if Taylor gets hurt, and I have zero RB1s because I didn't draft Williams?" That means you might come in 10th in your league instead of 4th. Either way, you're one of 11 teams that didn't fulfill its goal.
We should always draft for upside. And targeting the potential league winners above allows us to do so.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.
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Rachel Tootsiepop