In recent years, positional scarcity has been a key component of fantasy football analysis and draft preparation. Putting a premium on positions that required only one starter per week leaves fantasy GMs with little margin for error at the flex-eligible spots that require multiple starters.
That's why the fantasy football industry has emphasized the late-round strategy with quarterbacks and tight ends.
These are the reasons why the late-round quarterback and tight-end strategies work.
- Positional Scarcity
- Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback and Tight End
- Quarterback and Tight End are Predictable Positions
- Quarterback and Tight End are Replaceable Positions
Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e., leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots that allow only one tight end starter).
Positional Scarcity
Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters are at each position.
- Tight Ends: 12 fantasy starters, 24 legitimate NFL contributors
- Running Backs: 24-36 fantasy starters, 48 legitimate NFL contributors
- Wide Receivers: 36-48 fantasy starters, 52 legitimate NFL contributors
* The "NFL contributors" figures assume that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical leagues (hence the reduction from 32 to 24 at tight end and 64 to 52 at receiver) and make assumptions that some committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).
At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Here are the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a barbecue, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?
- 12 sides when 30 are available
- 30 burgers when 48 are available
Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here.
Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer tight end starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.
Flat Scoring Distribution
Over the last five years in fantasy football, the difference between a middling starter and a backup at tight end, running back, and wide receiver.
- TE4 to TE16: 4-5 fantasy points per game
- RB8 to RB48: 7-10 fantasy points per game
- WR8 to WR48: 6-8 fantasy points per game
The difference between a high-end starter at tight end (TE4) and a tight end who shouldn't be rostered (TE16) is 4-5 fantasy points per game. Conversely, the drop-off from a middling RB1 (RB8) to a bench player (RB48) is 7-10 fantasy points per game.
Takeaway: Tight end scoring is flat, and scoring at the other positions drops off drastically.
Predictable Scoring
This is where the foundation of the late-round strategy for quarterbacks and tight ends differs slightly. The quarterbacks column mentioned that passers have insulated volume due to today's pass-happy NFL. Tight ends are not afforded that same luxury, making the position harder to predict every week.
The tight end position is still predictable, albeit in a different way. Identifying the right late-round tight end targets for draft purposes can be more predictable than projecting week-to-week volume and production. Unique athleticism and questionable team target shares have applied to the following recent late-round tight end breakouts.
- Evan Engram (2022)
- Tyler Higbee (2022)
- David Njoku (2022)
- Dalton Schultz (2021)
- Dawson Knox (2021)
- Logan Thomas (2020)
- Mike Gesicki (2020)
- Mark Andrews (2019)
- Darren Waller (2019)
- George Kittle (2018)
Takeaway: Tight end production is hard to predict on a week-to-week basis, but using athleticism and unclear target projections helps to identify late-round targets.
Replaceable Production
At quarterback, the waiver wire offers the safety that makes a busted draft pick inconsequential. Because tight ends don't have the same level of week-to-week predictability, the replaceability argument isn't quite as strong. But that is mitigated by the fact that the position is lower scoring than quarterbacks.
Below is a look at how quarterbacks and tight ends compare, using the last five years at each ranking.
- QB4 - 25-27 fantasy points per game
- QB8 - 22-24
- QB12 - 20-22
- TE4 - 12-14
- TE8 - 10-12
- TE12 - 8-10
Quarterback streaming has proven that fantasy GMs who exclusively use the waiver wire for their starting quarterback can achieve 22-24 fantasy points per week (QB6-QB9 production). While that might not be an easy feat at tight end, the downside is capped because the position's impact is much smaller to the lineup as a whole. And while the predictability of tight ends is less than quarterbacks, the Positional Scarcity argument showed that the volume of available options is nearly the same.
Takeaway: There's no need to worry about a tight end busting as a draft pick. Take multiple late-round shots and use the waiver wire if they fail.
The Takeaways
- Tight end is a position with high supply and low demand.
- Tight end scoring is flat; scoring at the flex-eligible positions drops off drastically.
- Using athleticism and unclear target projections helps to identify late-round tight end targets.
- Aim for upside with multiple late-round shots and use the waiver wire if they fail.
Drafting any tight end who doesn't have top-five upside is a wasted pick. And the earlier the pick is made, the greater the ramifications to the rest of the roster (i.e., the benefit lost of selecting a flex-eligible player in an earlier round). When a tight end selected late realizes his high-end outcome, the fantasy GMs who rostered him have a significant advantage over their league mates.
Actionable Advice
Below are the best candidates being selected in Round 8 or later to emerge into every-week starters, listed in order of current average draft position.
- Pat Freiermuth - showed great rapport with Kenny Pickett last season and the team's best red zone option; double-digit touchdowns in play
- Chigoziem Okonkwo - excellent metrics as a rookie; could benefit from a more pass-heavy approach in Tennessee
- Dawson Knox - ceiling limited by Dalton Kincaid, but Knox has a rapport advantage with Josh Allen; high floor - especially early in the year
- Trey McBride - entering his second year and on a team likely to be trailing often; pop-gun arm Colt McCoy should use his tight ends often
- Jelani Woods - uber-athletic, not much depth chart competition, showed he has a ceiling with 8-98-0 on 9 targets in Week 12 last season
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.
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Rachel Tootsiepop
