Photo: USA Today Sports

Imagine we had a time machine and a copy of the sports almanac but instead of going back in time to amass a fortune betting on sports like Biff Tannen in Back to the Future, we simply went back to 2016 with designs on dominating our dynasty startup draft.

Knowing what we do now, what would our 2016 dynasty draft board look like? What lessons can we learn to make us better dynasty players in 2019?

I went back and figured out what the Top 200 should have looked like in 2016 (see the chart at the bottom of the article) and redrafted the first two rounds, detailing each pick.

Two of the most interesting takeaways were the extreme value of running backs due to their ability to produce “mega seasons” and the high value of developmental and rookie draft picks. Both of these topics are broken down in-depth below.

Ranking Method

Before diving into the fun stuff, let’s take a second to talk about how the numbers and hindsight rankings were put together. There is an easy two-step process to figure out which players we should have picked with 20/20 hindsight.

First, we have to account for their production over the past three seasons and put a numerical value on it. This is time consuming but a fairly straightforward process. We just look at what the fantasy statistics were for each player and compare them to the replacement level production at their position and add the numbers up. This is production that would have helped you win fantasy matchups and league titles over the last three seasons. This is fantasy value that you’ve already banked if you drafted these players and had them on your roster the past three years.

Second, we have to account for each player’s value after the 2016-2018 timeframe, which conveniently enough is easily accomplished by simply plugging in each player’s current dynasty trade value (from the April 1st Dynasty Trade Value Chart update). This is a huge piece of the pie because your dynasty leagues that started three years ago are still up and running and the perfect startup draft would have both made you a contender in 2016-2018 and given you a core group of players to compete long-term (2019 and beyond).

Figuring Past Value

The way to figure out how much value each player had in any season is to measure how many more points per game they scored than a replacement level player at the same position. For example, DeAndre Hopkins averaged 21.1 PPG last season. Replacement level production for a wide receiver in 2018 was approximately 10.4 PPG (Nelson Agholor at WR50). So Hopkins scored 10.7 PPG above replacement. Rounded to the nearest whole number, we would say Hopkins was 11 points per game above replacement level (“PPGAR“ for short). For simplicity’s sake, we can then say we got 11 points worth of dynasty value from Hopkins last season.

We also added a games played adjustment to mostly filter out small sample-size seasons. The adjustment also gives a more accurate value than using simple season-long VBD numbers. For example, Le’Veon Bell was suspended the first four games of 2016. He scored 16 PPGAR in the 12 games he played. Reducing that 16 PPGAR by 25% (4/16) gives us an end result of an adjusted 12 PPGAR for the 2016 season. This approximates the production you would have received if you had a replacement level player in your starting lineup for the four games he missed (instead of taking a zero, which is what the season-long VBD method inadvertently assumes).

2016 Dynasty Redraft Round 1

1.01 Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott was the slam dunk 1.01 in rookie drafts back in 2016 and going near the 1/2 turn in startup drafts. No top-end player has been as consistently productive as Elliott since he entered the league. He averaged 11 PPGAR in each of his first three seasons. Only the six-game suspension in 2017 (which caused his adjusted PPGAR for the season to fall from 11 to 7) kept him from being the top overall fantasy player from 2016-2018. As it was, his 29 PPGAR total ranked fourth, just 2 below the #1, Todd Gurley.

The production is even more impressive considering Elliott did it in his age 21, 22, and 23 seasons. He doesn’t turn 24 until July, which is a big reason why he is currently a consensus Top-3 startup pick and has a huge dynasty trade value. When you combine the 29 points of production you’ve already banked from Elliott with his current trade value of 55, his total dynasty value of 84 makes him the choice at 1.01 if we redrafted a 2016 startup.

1.02 Saquon Barkley

In 2016, Saquon Barkley was just coming off of an impressive freshman season at Penn State. He was a popular devy pick in the mid-late first round and ranked #3 overall in my 2016 devy rankings behind only Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb.

I debated whether to include players who weren’t in the league yet in 2016 and decided to include them in this article for two reasons:

1. Many people play in devy leagues and had the opportunity to draft guys like Barkley back in 2016 startups, so it is relevant to include them.
2. Even in non-devy leagues, it was still possible to trade for future rookie picks. Including the players who would eventually be available in future rookie drafts provides interesting context in terms of valuing what were, at the time, future picks. Back in 2016, we were extremely excited about the 2017 rookie class and almost everyone who traded for a 2017 1st back then came out smelling like roses.

Most of his Barkley’s 2016 value comes from his current trade value (62) but his monster, age-21 rookie season means you’ve already banked 13 PPGAR even at this early point of his career.

The 13 last season makes it easy to see why he has such a huge dynasty trade value. Over the next three years, he could return a cumulative 30-40 PPGAR in his age 22-24 seasons. At the end of our three year window, Barkley will still be just 25 years old and should retain a high dynasty trade value. The real value of an exercise like this is how much it can help us to actually quantify the value of these big running back seasons. When viewed through the lens of the likelihood of Barkley stringing together a bunch of seasons with production of 10-15 PPGAR, he might actually be an undervalued dynasty asset right now.

1.03 Christian McCaffrey

In 2016, McCaffrey was coming off of a big sophomore season and was one of many 2017 running backs everyone was excited about and ranked 7th in my Devy top 100. McCaffrey had solid production as a rookie (5 PPGAR in 2017) before exploding for a monster 2018 (13 PPGAR) in his age 22 season. We have seen it is tough for any running back to churn out monster seasons like that over multiple years -- especially for a guy McCaffrey's size. However, even at his current lofty dynasty valuation, McCaffrey can prove a value even if his touches are reduced a bit. His receiving production gives him such a huge leg up on the competition and makes him a top-4 dynasty option moving forward.

1.04 Alvin Kamara

Kamara was relatively off the radar heading into his final season at Tennessee in 2016. He was a consensus 1st-round pick in 2017 dynasty rookie drafts, however. Again, the hype for the 2017 rookie class was met and even exceeded. Adding extra 1st rounders by trading down in 2016 dynasty startups was a fruitful strategy. Kamara has had a pair of excellent seasons (10 PPGAR in 2017 and 12 lin 2018) and has huge trade value going into his third season.

1.05 Todd Gurley

But for the concern surrounding the condition of Todd Gurley’s knee and the resulting drop in his current dynasty trade value, he probably would have been the choice at 1.01 in a 2016 redraft. He was the most valuable dynasty player overall over the last three seasons on the strength of his back-to-back monster seasons (15 PPGAR in 2017 and 14 last season) over the last two years.

1.06 DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins has been one of the most productive receivers over the past three seasons, with numbers only eclipsed by Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. The difference is that Hopkins is over three years younger than Jones and four years younger than Brown. With many more prime years ahead of him, Hopkins is currently worth significantly more than Brown and Jones. Thus, he would be the choice as the top receiver in a 2016 startup.

1.07 Odell Beckham

The consensus 1.01 back in 2016, Beckham didn't quite live up to short-term expectations due to multiple injuries over the last few years. He has returned just 17 points worth of value since 2016. Even so, he has maintained enough of his dynasty trade value to make anyone who drafted him at the top happy with their choice. This is the benefit of drafting a 23-year old (Beckham’s age in 2016). He retains almost all of his trade value three years later because he has so many years of his prime left.

1.08 Michael Thomas

The class of 2016 rookie wide receivers mostly disappointed. Thomas was the one glaring exception. A mid-late 1st-round pick in rookie drafts and mid-round pick in dynasty startups, Thomas immediately emerged as a top receiver. Over his first three years in the NFL, Thomas returned the 4th-most value at the wide receiver position. After posting back-to-back seasons of 6 PPGAR, he took it to the next level with a 10 in 2018. Thomas was a 23-year old rookie and recently turned 26-years old. He still has a number of prime years left but would have a higher trade value and might rank as WR1 if he had entered the NFL at a bit younger age.

1.09 Davante Adams

Similar to Thomas, Adams made a big leap in 2018. After back-to-back seasons of 5 PPGAR, he hit 11 last season in his age-25 season. Anyone who took Adams in the third or fourth round of a 2016 startup came out smelling like roses.

1.10 Travis Kelce

Perhaps the most interesting name in the first round of our 2016 redraft is Travis Kelce. He has been the third-most valuable player in all of fantasy football over the last three seasons. His consistency has been especially impressive, posting three straight seasons of 10 PPGAR. Kelce will turn 30 this fall and his longevity is the only question surrounding his current trade value. We just saw Rob Gronkowski retire at age 29 and Jimmy Graham fell off a cliff in his late 20s as well. On the other hand, tight ends like Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Tony Gonzalez remained productive well into their 30s. If Kelce can stay at or near his current level of performance, he is probably underrated right now in terms of his dynasty trade value.

1.11 Antonio Brown

If you drafted Brown early in the first-round of a 2016 dynasty startup, you basically got everything you should have expected. He’s put up three more big seasons and ended up tied with Todd Gurley as the most valuable fantasy player from 2016-2018. You’ve already banked 31 points of value, so it isn’t too big of a negative that Brown has seen his dynasty trade value fall all the way down to 24. In fact, a trade value of 24 heading into his age-31 season is pretty much a realistic best case scenario.

Drafting a 28-year old wide receiver (like Brown in 2016) automatically limits your upside a bit if you are looking at the pick through a lens of three years of production plus the remaining value at the end of the three-year window. You know in advance that the remaining value isn't going to be huge for a player who will be 31. However, it is also an extremely safe choice when it comes to taking a proven, elite talent like Brown.

1.12 Melvin Gordon

Some small injuries have kept Gordon from putting up any 10+ PPGAR seasons but he has been remarkably consistent in posting three-straight seasons of 8+ in his age 23, 24, and 25 seasons. You have to feel pretty good about Gordon putting together another three solid seasons as he remains in his prime years.

2016 Dynasty Redraft Second Round

2.01 Mike Evans

Evans returned a solid 20 points worth of value over the past three years (8,4,8). As he enters his age 26 season, he should have plenty of prime years ahead of him. He might be a little underrated at his current dynasty valuation, especially if he can string together some more seasons of 8 PPGAR.

2.02 Le’Veon Bell

Bell’s holdout in 2018 probably cost him some money long-term and also cost him a year of prime production. Without the missed season, Bell probably would have been the fantasy MVP of the three-year stretch from 2016-2018. Bell’s pass-catching ability and massive workload made him the most valuable fantasy player over the two-year stretch of 2016-17.

2.03 JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster was a top-5 ranked devy prospect in the 2016 offseason. Like Keenan Allen before him, he was a player who fell in the draft and, in hindsight, was much more accurately ranked as an NFL prospect early in his college career. It is a factor worth considering when a mediocre junior seasons causes an elite prospect’s draft stock to slide.

2.04 Julio Jones

As with Antonio Brown, you basically received everything you could have realistically hoped for if you drafted Jones early in a 2016 startup. He put together three strong seasons of production (7, 6, and 10) and is showing no signs of decline as he enters his age-30 season.

2.05 David Johnson

Johnson was going in the late-1st round or early-2nd round of 2016 startups. He has proved to have been a solid pick in that range, though not the home run selection he seemed to have been after his monster 2016 season (14 PPGAR). Going forward, Johnson will be an interesting case study in the age versus touches debate. He has just 852 career touches at the NFL level, which should mean plenty of tread remaining on the tires. However, he will turn 28-years old during the 2019 season so his value could start to decline precipitously in the coming years if he starts to lose a step.

2.06 Zach Ertz

One of the takeaways from this project was just how valuable top tight ends can be. Ertz had seasons of 2, 7, and 9 PPGAR over the last three seasons. The upward trend is notable. If he can string together some more seasons in the 7-9 range, he will prove that his current dynasty valuation (26) is too low.

2.07 Joe Mixon

Mixon was a very highly regarded high school recruit but fell way down the devy rankings after his off-field issues cast doubt on his NFL future. Mixon made a jump from replacement-level production as a rookie to 6 PPGAR. He should make another jump in 2019.

2.08 Stefon Diggs

Diggs is another player whose career appears to be on an upward trajectory. His PPGAR totals over the last three seasons were 3, 4, and then 7 last season. While it feels like Diggs has been around a while, he is still just 25-years old. He is a great target at his current dynasty valuation if you think he can start stringing seasons like 2018 together.

2.09 Adam Thielen

Unlike the top 20 players on this list, Thielen was available and essentially free at this time in 2016. The former undrafted free agent got onto the radar with a 2 PPGAR season in 2016. He then had a 7 and 9, respectively, in 2017 and 2018. He will turn 29-years old this season so the late breakout could mean he has a shorter prime than most other top receivers.

2.10 Keenan Allen

Allen was a popular early-2nd round pick in 2016 startups and promptly missed almost the entire 2016 season. He has produced basically as hoped for since returning from the injury, however. He posted seasons of 8 and 6 the last two years. In terms of his current value, he is projected as a guy who will put up more seasons like 2018. With young weapons like Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler, the volume might not be there for seasons of above 6 PPGAR.

2.11 Tyreek Hill

But for the recent off-field issues, Hill would have been a first-rounder in our 2016 hindsight draft.

2.12 Amari Cooper

Even after the strong finish to 2018, Cooper remains a bit of an enigma. He didn’t provide much production (just 8 total PPGAR over the three seasons). Most of his dynasty value is still theoretical as we await a true breakout fantasy season.

Mega Seasons and Running Back PPR Dominance

Let’s define “mega-season” for a player as any season with a PPGAR of 12 or higher. Over the last three seasons, we have had eight mega seasons by a total of 6 different players. Le’Veon Bell (12s in both 2016 and 2017) and Todd Gurley (15 in 2017, 14 in 2018) were the only two players to put up multiple mega-seasons over this timeframe. David Johnson in 2016 (14), Christian McCaffrey in 2018 (13), Saquon Barkley in 2018 (13) and Alvin Kamara in 2018 (12) each have produced a single mega season but look poised for more in the coming years.

Given the fact that only the running back position has produced these curve-breaking fantasy performances over the past three seasons, it shouldn’t be a surprise that our top 5 picks in a 2016 redraft would have all been running backs.

We also have to look at how these mega seasons were accomplished and figure out the skillset and usage that has led to these dominant fantasy seasons in PPR scoring. Below is a chart showing every single mega season over the last three seasons. Let’s focus in on the reception totals:

We can see that the running backs averaged 80 receptions in these eight special seasons. They recorded an average of 5.4 receptions per game, which projects out to an even more incredible 87 receptions over a full season.

The takeaway? Running backs with pass-catching skills and enough rushing talent to earn 15 carries per game are the highest upside players in dynasty. We need to be aggressive in targeting these players before their breakout seasons. In rookie drafts, it makes sense to swing for the fences and take a chance on running backs with true three-down potential. In 2019, the three backs who stand out in this regard are Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery. While the floor may not be as high as it is with some of the top rookie receivers, the above numbers show why it is at least worth taking a shot at the upside. There isn't an advantage quite like an elite pass-catching back in PPR leagues.

Devy Values

My first annual list of the Top 100 Devy Prospects was posted to Footballguys three years ago. From that 2016 article, here were the Top 10 devy prospects as I saw it at the time:

The big takeaway? The average value of a Top 10 devy draft choice in 2016 (assuming you used these rankings) ended up being a whopping 35 points. That is a massive and shocking number. For perspective, 35 was the April 2019 dynasty trade value of Mike Evans. For those in devy leagues, the above Top 10 list is a great reminder of just how valuable these devy selections can be. For those who are in non-devy leagues, there may be less direct application. However, it should at least serve as a reminder of the value of future 1st-round rookie picks. If you are in a dynasty startup draft this summer, the above numbers should be kept in mind when it comes to any trades involving future draft picks.

As a piece of shameless self promotion, let me take this opportunity to note that my 2019 Devy Top 100 article will be out in mid-May. The top names on that list will be ones that all serious dynasty players should be aware of. History tells us many of them will be future dynasty stars.

The Top 200

Here is a chart showing the Top 200 players in order for our 2016 hindsight dynasty startup draft. It lists the PPG above replacement each player produced over the last three years, which combined with their current dynasty trade value gives us an accurate overall look at their true value in 2016.