The first quarter of the fantasy season is like the beginning of a race. Some runners sprint to a strong start and maintain a fantastic pace to the finish line. Others start slow and build to a pace that gradually moves them past the majority of the field.
Most overreact to external factors — usually the pace of the field. When this happens, they psych themselves out and make the race harder than it needs to be for them.
Fantasy football media and fans watch the first month of the NFL season, see the field pulling away from them early, and lose their minds with conclusions that can put them in a bigger hole than where they began. One of the dark comedies of our existence is that when we run away from adversity and conflict, we're simply taking a longer and circuitous path that ends with us colliding with the ass-end of the very thing we're trying to avoid.
Our desire to take immediate action to fix whatever ails us can be valuable when equipped with quality information. However, it can also be a gigantic rationalization for our desperate desire to maintain control in a situation where we have little, if any.
This plays out in September fantasy football with adds, drops, and trades that often hurt our teams as often as they help them. Drop Russell Wilson. Spend that FAAB dough on Tyler Allgeier. Go big on Roschon Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell, and Kendrick Bourne. Get rid of Adam Thielen and Marvin Mims as fast as you can. Christian Kirk after Week 1? Wasted pick.
Even the examples I'm citing above could change dramatically enough for the initial recommendations to work out. My favorite teams to manage during the year are the ones that have rough starts. Instead of giving up like most people, I look for bold moves that might help me get back into the mix. This week, I'm recommending 10 bold and crazy moves that could pay off for you.
Before we move ahead, if you're 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4 and your total fantasy points for your active rosters are scoring in the top 30 percent of your league, stay patient with your squad. Your roster tweaks should consist of injury replacements, upgrading depth, or trading your surplus of talent at one position for an upgrade to a starter at another.
These are bold and crazy moves for a reason, but if your team isn't scoring within shouting distance of the top 30 percent and you've made the optimal lineup decisions during this period, it's time to get into Mad Scientist Mode.
Play like you have nothing to lose. It may not work, but it's a lot more entertaining, and bold moves often pay off better than managing your mediocre team with quiet desperation while you're fronting to your competition that you are in the mix when you really aren't.
The goal of many of these ideas is to help you correct talent/production imbalances on your rosters and potentially position yourself to create a surplus that you can use to rebuild your team through trades.
The best way to do that — and I'll paraphrase Adam Harstad who explains it succinctly — is to sell players who are vastly outperforming ADP and buy into players who are underperforming to ADP. It may appear that you are buying into a worst-looking team at first — and it turns out that you got worse — but you have little to lose at this point.
1. Sell Your Starting Quarterbacks and Roll with Joshua Dobbs, Sam Howell, or Jordan Love
Most struggling fantasy teams have an imbalance of talent at running back and/or wide receiver. Many average or slightly above-average teams have solid talent at RB and WR but lack a top quarterback because they played the late-round quarterback strategy.
Half of the top 12 quarterbacks this month were early-round choices, and 75 percent of them were no worse than mid-round picks in 20-round drafts. Most GMs won't want to give up on Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, or Joe Burrow. Certainly, inquire about them as your opening offer that includes a package deal for an upgrade at another position because you might get one of them.
However, if those GMs shut you out of those possibilities, consider trading your top passer for a combination of a top-24 receiver or back you're missing on your roster and ask for a player in return like Dobbs, Howell, or Love. These are all passers that many will be happy to give up because they believe they are selling high. The same may be true of Jared Goff and Geno Smith.
Most likely, they are selling high, but from what I've seen, Dobbs, Howell, and Love can help your team head in a better direction if you can upgrade your deficiencies at another position. If, along the way, you find a Goff, Smith, or Derek Carr on the waiver wire after you've already made this deal, grab them. You're not expecting Dobbs, Howell, or Love to be your year-end starter. You're open to the possibility, but you're also open to having a hedge who can turn things around in short order.
If you'd rather preemptively add an option at no cost, go first-come, first-serve on Taylor Heinicke. If he doesn't take over in a week or two, make a trade. Or, add Heinicke and make a trade.
2. Jaleel McLaughlin
I've written about him probably more (and earlier) than anyone. The odds he becomes your team's fantasy savior are probably less than 10 percent. That's a bonus of this recommendation but not the intent. McLaughlin has Sean Payton telling the media that the Broncos need to broaden the rookie's role.
Yes, there were whispers that the Broncos had this intention heading into the season opener and didn't act on it for three weeks. Why are they going to make good on it now?
The answer: Intentions may never translate to action, but they are the foundation for most action that occurs. McLaughlin was good enough as a UDFA running back to knock veterans off the roster with actual draft capital and/or tenure. He was also good enough to have the team telling the media how much they liked his game and intended to use him in a recurring role.
Veteran coaches are notoriously conservative with undrafted rookies. They've seen enough training camp and preseason wonders freeze up on the big stage of the regular season. It's entirely likely that the combination of game scripts, play-calling priorities, and the availability of Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine kept McLaughlin's usage in a holding pattern.
Although Williams' hip injury isn't considered a long-term issue, Payton's comments to the media about broadening McLaughlin's role regardless of Williams' availability is telling.
Volume may be king for running backs, but finding running backs who are earning notable volume and are available to you is a different story. In your current circumstances, your best bets are players who can give you big plays on minimal volume — the Vinnie "the Microwave" Johnson of the NFL.
McLaughlin is the only back on the Broncos' roster with breakaway skills. His explosive speed and quickness, combined with his between-the-tackles vision, give him a real shot to deliver startable value as no worse than a flex play. Tyjae Spears is another with this potential who may be available now that any initial panic over Derrick Henry has subsided. Latavius Murray still has enough game in this tank and the touches to give you points. Ronnie Rivers isn't as explosive as McLaughlin or Spears, but he's likely a free agent in your league who is worth the temporary addition.
Rivers has excellent hands, he's a skilled route runner, and he has the burst to complement Kyren Williams behind an offensive line that is playing well. These options can tide you over as desperation RB2 or flex while you farm your RB depth chart with the next piece of advice.
3. Farm Backup RBs with Starter Skills
This is what I touched upon last week with the recommendations to invest in backups on the Commanders, Dolphins, and Cardinals' ground games. Obviously, you need points now to win, but if you can live with a McLaughlin, Spears, or Rivers as that flex or desperation RB2, you can spend the next 2-3 weeks acquiring depth that might work out in your favor due to injury.
The 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles are obvious depth charts to plunder because of the strength of their line play and schemes. Kenneth Gainwell, Rico Dowdle, and Elijah Mitchell may have little value right now, but an injury changes that fast.
Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier, and Cam Akers are worth acquiring in package-deal trades if they are on rosters.
Damien Harris may not be earning a lot of touches, but we know he's reliable when called upon.
Chris Brooks, Boston Scott, Trey Sermon, and Zamir White are worthwhile speculative additions. Continue monitoring Zach Evans' spot on the depth chart.
4. Buy Into Explosive Talent That Has Yet to Explode
Dalton Kincaid is a favorite of mine for a lot of reasons, but the Bills have been conservative with their usage of him as a receiver. You may already have a tight end like Zach Ertz, who can give you modest starter production, but if your team is struggling, it may be worth adding players like Kincaid, who have the skills but, so far, lacked the opportunity to generate explosive plays.
In your situation, Kyle Pitts and Darke London are absolutely worth buying low with the hope that Taylor Heinicke replaces Desmond Ridder within the next 3-5 weeks. Ridder, as with Marcus Mariota last year, is the fundamental reason the Atlanta offense is underachieving. Ridder has the physical talent but lacks the high-end conceptual skills to process the field to become a strong NFL starter at this time.
Marvin Mims hasn't earned great volume yet, but the Broncos have discussed trading one of its receivers since June. Mims could become a valuable starter within the next 3-4 weeks.
Alec Pierce is another option given up for dead, but as the Colts continue expanding the scheme for Anthony Richardson — and they are — Pierce could become a more prominent target.
Jalin Hyatt's low usage earned the scorn of Peyton Manning on national television. The Giants look bad, and that often leads to changes that can include giving an explosive rookie more opportunities. Considering that the best receiver on the field is a tight end that the Giants use all too predictably, Hyatt may be worth a cheap add if you're weak at receiver.
5. Sell (Keenan Allen) Your Top Producers Who Can't Sustain the Value
I love Allen's game. I also loved that he faced Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Las Vegas. After the bye week, the Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets, Lions, Packers, Ravens, and Patriots won't be as friendly. You can sell Allen with the promise of the Broncos on the playoff schedule — twice. His age and injury history also make him worth betting against.
If selling Allen can get you a combination of a starter and a flex play at WR and/or RB, do it.
Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and DeAndre Hopkins are all potential buy-lows.
Other players I'd consider selling high:
Puka Nacua: Nacua has performed well and will continue to be a good rookie, but the volume isn't going to last when Cooper Kupp returns. If you can get WR2 value for him, do it.
Nico Collins: I like him as a WR2, but if you can get WR1 value for him, do it. His production will alternate with Tank Dell's based on the type of coverages opponents will play. The routes where C.J. Stroud likes to target Collins are against teams that play a lot of zone. Dell will be the better option against teams that play more man-to-man.
De'Von Achane: His game is good enough to deliver value in more ways than his gadget-like volume, but I doubt he get the volume to usurp Raheem Mostert without an injury. The same could be true when Jeff Wilson returns because the Bills' defense limited the Dolphins' offense and provided a template for opponents to follow. Achane's production will appeal to GMs because he looks like the guy who will produce no matter what, but the volume may not be enough.
No one thinks Achane's 11.4 yards per carry is remotely sustainable, but most believe he'll remain a consistent fantasy starter. Just remember, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was RB4 this time last year. James Robinson was RB11, and Cordarrelle Patterson was RB12. The only one from that trio who even finished as high as a fantasy RB3 at year's end was Patterson (RB33).
As much as I think Achane can become a good runner beyond the current gadgetry the Dolphins use with him, Wilson and Mostert are more skillful inside runners. You may lose this bet against Achane, but if you can earn multiple players in return who can help your team, it may not matter.
Good luck!