When it comes to fantasy football, it's all about finding those hidden gems, the players who defy expectations and deliver exceptional performances. One such player who deserves our attention is Geno Smith, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback. Despite being a backup for years, Smith was given the opportunity to shine in 2022, and he did just that. Now, as we look ahead to the 2023 season, let's explore why Smith is poised for another top-10 performance, even if he regresses in some areas.

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Our consensus projections currently project him 14th among quarterbacks.

Let Geno Smith Cook

After years of keeping Russell Wilson out of the kitchen, the Seattle Seahawks made a bold decision. They traded him, along with a 2022 fourth-round pick, in exchange for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, Drew Lock, Noah Fant, and Shelby Harris.

At first glance, it seemed that Lock would be the likely starter in Wilson's absence. After all, Geno Smith had been a backup for the past six seasons, with his last stint as a starter back in 2014, which, to put it kindly, was less than inspiring.

However, behind the scenes, the Seattle brass quietly believed in Smith's ability to lead a franchise. They saw him not as a mere game manager for a rebuilding roster but as the starting quarterback for a genuinely competitive team.

Pete Carroll and the rest of the coaching staff deserve immense credit for their unwavering belief in Smith's potential. They were perhaps the only ones, aside from Smith and his family, who saw the valuable football skills he still possessed.

In a twist of fate, Smith was not only invited into the kitchen to cook but given his own restaurant, equipped with top-notch cookware to work with.

Seahawks Offense 2021

In 2021, the Seahawks had the second-fewest pass attempts in the league, with only 495. This low number was partly due to their 54.5% passer rate, which ranked 20th, but the main issue was the overall scarcity of plays they ran. Seattle finished dead last in plays per game, running four fewer plays per game than the next worst team.

While it's easy to blame Wilson for the team's performance, the truth is that Seattle's pace was simply abysmal. The Seahawks' passing DVOA ranked eighth in the league at 25.9%, according to Football Outsiders. Wilson still managed to average nearly two touchdown passes per game and finished the season with a solid 25:6 touchdown to interception ratio. In short, he was performing close to his career averages, albeit in a smaller sample size due to injury.

In terms of statistical rankings, the Seahawks finished 10th in passing touchdowns with 30 and were 12th in passing yards with 3,815.

While it's tempting to view the 2021 Seahawks as a collapse of epic proportions, especially considering their 7-10 record compared to their consistent success in the past decade, a closer look reveals that their passing offense was actually efficient and above league average in most categories. Geno Smith was largely overlooked in redraft leading into 2022, mostly because nobody outside the Seahawks facility was certain whether he would start or not. Even if he did, most people doubted his ability to succeed in Seattle's perceived "boring" brand of football.

Seahawks Offense 2022

Under Smith's leadership, the Seahawks took a more aggressive approach, attempting 573 passes. This resulted in a pass rate of 59.4%, ranking them 13th in the league. They also increased their average number of plays per game from 56.1 to 61.5.

Despite the increased pace and pass attempts, their pass DVOA slightly dropped to 24.1%, still placing them at a respectable 8th in the league. They tied for 4th in passing touchdowns with 30, matching their 2021 total once again. Moreover, their passing yards saw a substantial increase, reaching 4,282.

While the offensive output of the 2022 Seahawks showed modest improvement, the real difference was the opportunity given to Smith. Seattle essentially relied on Smith to be the kind of quarterback that Wilson had been longing to be for years.

Geno Smith 2022

In the revitalized Seattle passing offense, Smith achieved an impressive feat by finishing as one of the top five quarterbacks in 2022. It was a true fairy tale story crafted by the NFL scriptwriters, showcasing the journey of a career backup who went from being undrafted in Superflex leagues to becoming a league winner.

Smith maintained an average of 17.9 points per game and showcased exceptional accuracy, completing an incredible 69.8% of his passes while hardly missing a snap. He also showcased his versatility by adding 348 rushing yards to his overall performance.

His passing yardage predominantly came from downfield throws, with minimal yards after catch contributed by his primary receivers. Smith ranked 31st in yards after catch per completion. However, he excelled in completed air yards, ranking 3rd in the league behind only Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins with an impressive total of 2,506.

Smith's success mirrored that of traditional pocket passers we've witnessed in the past, but he achieved it at a rate that seemed unrealistic from every perspective.

When making a comparison, Smith's remarkable season bears striking resemblance to Drew Brees' performance in 2017 when he shattered the single-season completion percentage record. Certainly, that particular sentence was not part of my expectations for the 2022 season.

The Receiving Corps

Seattle surprised many by heavily utilizing 11 personnel (67%) despite the lack of production from their third wide receiver options. Compare that to the Miami offense that also primarily relied on two options, but ran the most 12 personnel in the league by a wide margin.

DK Metcalf played in all 17 games but dealt with injuries in Weeks 7 and 8. He maintained an average of 93% of the snaps across 15 healthy games, during which he caught 90 of his 141 targets for 1,048 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Tyler Lockett missed Week 16 due to injury and was limited in Week 17. He played in 15 healthy games, averaging 88% of the snaps. Lockett caught 84 of his 117 targets for 1,033 yards and 9 touchdowns.

In 2022, Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge saw significant playing time as the team's third wide receiver options. However, neither player exceeded 30 receptions throughout the season.

Despite the lack of support, Lockett and Metcalf played crucial roles in Smith's exceptional season. Lockett boasted one of the lowest drop rates in the league at just 1.7%, while Metcalf ranked 12th in receptions. Both players landed in the top 20 for total receiving yards.

However, neither player made a significant impact after the catch. They each broke only one tackle throughout the season, adding less than 300 yards after the catch. Nonetheless, they both ranked in the top 15 for yards before the catch.

Ultimately, while Metcalf and Lockett performed well, they were not solely responsible for Smith's success and his recognition as the Comeback Player of the Year. However, they played a crucial role in maintaining their fantasy value.

With Smith finishing as a top-5 quarterback with just two reliable targets, the anticipation for the addition of the top receiver in the upcoming draft is truly exciting.

Enter Jaxon Smith-Njigba

With the 20th pick in the 2023 draft, the Seattle Seahawks made an exciting selection by picking wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Unfortunately, the 2022 season was marred by a hamstring injury that limited him to just three games. However, his outstanding performance in the 2021 season showcased his potential as an NFL star. As fans, we have been fortunate to witness a string of exceptional receivers from Ohio State University, including the immediate impact of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who both contended for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2022. It's incredible to imagine a world where they were the second and third options for their respective offenses.

In 2021, Smith-Njigba emerged as a standout player, leading the team with 95 receptions for 1,606 yards in just 13 games while catching passes from C.J. Stroud.

Smith-Njigba primarily played in the slot, accounting for approximately 80% of his snaps. This positional alignment will likely result in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett lining up outside, where they have excelled. Given the Seahawks' tendency to heavily employ 11 personnel, we can expect to see these three talented receivers sharing the field for the majority of the time.

Final Thoughts

When examining the events of 2022, it becomes evident that Smith's performance, which landed him in the top 5, was truly remarkable. The Seahawks adopted a pace that fostered offensive success, granting Smith ample opportunities to thrive in the passing game.

Although there may be concerns about potential regression in Smith's 2023 projection, the addition of Smith-Njigba can easily counteract any such regression. Some may argue that Smith's efficiency was so high that a third receiver wouldn't make a significant impact. After all, he completed nearly 70% of his 572 pass attempts, primarily targeting just two receivers. How, then, could a third receiver make a difference? In this scenario, Smith-Njigba is more likely to cannibalize targets from Metcalf and Lockett rather than enhance the overall offense.

While such a scenario is conceivable, it is not the one we foresee for the upcoming season. Smith's pass attempts represented a substantial upgrade from the Seahawks' previous approach, yet he still finished 8th in the league. There is no reason to doubt his ability to match the Jacksonville Jaguars' 596 pass attempts, considering they operated at a similar passing rate to Seattle in 2022.

Even when accounting for the anticipated regression that we must assume will affect every player coming off a stellar season, there are still pathways for Smith to finish in the top 10.

Now that the Comeback Player of the Year award is on his mantle, hopefully, Smith follows it up with an MVP-caliber season.