Sunday Showdown Week 15

Adam Wilde's Sunday Showdown Week 15 Adam Wilde Published 12/16/2023

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Baltimore Ravens are heading to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars as 3.5-point favorites with a 42.5-point total. Trevor Lawrence almost came away with a massive win over the Browns last week but was hampered by injury. The Jaguars are extremely projectable as Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones profile to handle the bulk of the receptions. Since Lawrence is not in Captain consideration, the receiving options should be utilized as bring-backs for Ravens builds. Lamar Jackson has been productive as a passer and is distributing the ball more than he has in the past. This creates a situation where the Ravens receivers are more viable based on game script but will carry a lower roster percentage due to the volume on the Jaguar side of the ball.

INJURY ROUND-UP

No injuries of note.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

Ravens OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson $12,400 - Captain or Flex

Jackson hit the 300-yard-bonus for the second time this season in Week 14. He also rushed for 70 yards. Over the last five games, he's averaged at least five points per game as a rusher. He's also distributing the ball more often than he had in the past, which makes triple-stacking more viable. The Jaguars will be more popular, which also makes the more viable Ravens offense unique.

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RUNNING BACK

Gus Edwards $7,400 - Flex

Edwards' role is diminishing more and more as the weeks go on. His snaps share is dropping proportionally to Keaton Mitchell's increase. Edwards handled just six touches in Week 14. With this trend likely to continue he is not viable at $7,400.

Keaton Mitchell $5,800 - Flex

Mitchell is averaging roughly 10 touches per game over the last three outings. Typically 10 touches would make a player simply "fine" at nearly $6,000 but with Mitchell's ability to break long plays, he's one of the best options on the slate.

RECEIVER

Zay Flowers $8,800 - Captain or Flex

Flowers struggled mightily through three-quarters last week, having dealt with multiple drops. He finished the game strong with a long touchdown and a two-point conversion that made the box score much more appealing. Flowers has been targeted at least 10 times in 3 of his last 5 games. He's Jackson's top option with Andrews out.

Odell Beckham Jr $7,200 - Flex

Beckham Jr. matched Flowers in targets last week with 10 against his former team. He caught only 4 but still managed to produce 97 yards and a touchdown. His price makes him far less appealing as he can be expected to revert to his mean target share. Even still, he is a necessary addition to Jackson's stacks in multi-entry tournaments.

Isaiah Likely $6,800 - Flex

Likely is in a similar boat to Beckham Jr. in that his fantastic Week 14 performance elevated his price. Since taking over as the starter he's been targeted 13 times resulting in 9 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown. Like Beckham Jr., he's a necessary addition to the player pool regardless of his price.

Rashod Bateman $3,200 - Flex

Bateman is one of the only fairly priced Ravens options. He's earned nine targets over the last two weeks but he's only come down with four of them. He's also failed to produce more than 25 yards in either game. He was open for a deep touchdown and narrowly missed by Jackson in Week 14. His deep ball prowess paired with his low roster percentage makes him a quality addition to Ravens stacks in tournaments.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Nelson Agholor $2,400 - Flex

Agholor won't be under the radar relative to Bateman, but he will carry a reasonable roster percentage. He's produced similarly to Bateman, and at times he's been even better, though he earns fewer targets.

JAGUARS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Trevor Lawrence $10,400 - Flex

Lawrence is dealing with a serious ankle injury that has been affecting him on the field. Last week he scrambled three times and seemed to be bothered after each attempt. He was still forced to drop back 50 times regardless of his injury. He finished with an admirable 257 yards on 28 completions with 3 touchdowns. He also threw three interceptions. With the Ravens expected to be a tough match-up again, Lawrence narrowly misses Captain consideration.

RUNNING BACK

Travis Etienne Jr.$10,200 - Captain or Flex

Etienne's price is one of the primary reasons that Lawrence is not considered at Captain. His role is game-script-proof as he can be heavily involved as a rusher or a receiver. Last week he handled 14 carries in addition to 4 receptions. His yardage has been disappointing for the past five weeks, but his workload is tough to fade.

RECEIVER

Calvin Ridley $8,600 - Captain or Flex

With Christian Kirk sidelined Ridley takes over as the pure WR1. In his first outing as Lawrence's top wide receiver, he earned 13 targets. He only caught four of them, which is likely why his salary is so low. His volume makes him the preferred Captain option, though Flowers is the preferred Flex option paired with Jackson.

Evan Engram $7,600 - Captain or Flex

While Ridley is likely to be the top target once again, Engram is not far off and he offers a $1,000 discount. He was targeted one fewer time than Ridley last week but caught seven more passes for two touchdowns. He will carry the lowest roster percentage among all Captain options.

Zay Jones $5,600 - Flex

Jones' box score production in Week 14 masks the fact that he was targeted more than either Ridley or Engram. He is unlikely to repeat as the team's top target, but he's still an excellent option at cost. Mitchell gets the slight nod in this range as he adds to Ravens stacks, but both can be played together to make room for more expensive options.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Parker Washington $4,000 - Flex

Washington is going to earn a similar workload to Agholor, yet he's $1,600 more expensive and doesn't add to Ravens stacks. Washington should only be considered in large field tournaments as a unique one-off.

Position Name Salary Projection H-Value Point/$ Captain or Flex
QB Lamar Jackson 12400 21.7 33.2 1.7 Captain Only
QB Trevor Lawrence 10400 17.8 28.3 1.7 Flex Only
RB Travis Etienne Jr. 10200 16.2 24.5 1.6
WR Zay Flowers 8800 13.8 21.5 1.6
WR Calvin Ridley 8600 13.5 21.2 1.6
TE Evan Engram 7600 14.1 25.6 1.9
RB Gus Edwards 7400 8.1 10.2 1.1
WR Odell Beckham Jr/td> 7200 11.1 18.0 1.5
TE Isaiah Likely 6800 10.6 17.6 1.6
RB D'Ernest Johnson 6200 3.6 3.0 0.6
RB Keaton Mitchell 5800 11.7 24.4 2.0
WR Zay Jones 5600 11.1 22.9 2.0
K Justin Tucker 5400 7.2 11.2 1.3
K Brandon McManus 4800 6.1 9.4 1.3
DST Baltimore Ravens 4400 9.8 23.9 2.2
WR Parker Washington 4000 5.3 8.8 1.3
RB Tank Bigsby 3800 Photos provided by Imagn Images