Sunday Showdown Week 14

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Philadelphia Eagles are heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys as 3.5-point underdogs with a 51.5-point total. Dallas has won 14 straight home games and has not been swept by the Eagles in many years. While both of those stats feel like a trap, Vegas seems to be willing to ride the wave. Dallas' spread makes the game interesting for Showdown because it's not so easy to simply stack the home favorite when it means you have to leave out the high-powered Philadelphia offense. One could go against the grain and heavily stack the Eagles, but that requires figuring out how Hurts is going to hit his ceiling, whether it be rushing or passing. Both backs are priced fairly and can serve as pivot options off the more popular receiving options. This is an especially effective strategy, given that both backs can be primary receiving options as well.

INJURY ROUND-UP

No injuries of note.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• A.J. Brown
• Dak Prescott
• Jalen Hurts
• CeeDee Lamb
• Tony Pollard

EAGLES OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,000 - Captain or Flex

Hurts is one of the most likely players in the league to account for two touchdowns. The question is only how many Eagles to stack him with. He is viable at Captain with anywhere from zero to four Eagles receivers. The solution is dependent on how the game shakes out. In a lower-scoring classic NFC East showdown, Hurts is more likely to hit his ceiling on the group. In a shootout, as the total indicates, he's more likely to connect with a few receivers.

RUNNING BACK

D'Andre Swift $7,400 - Flex

Swift is coming off his worst performance since Week 1, in which he barely played. Otherwise, his workload has been as strong as anyone's in the league. He's averaged over 60% of the snaps and handles around 15 touches per game. His price is phenomenal, and he benefits from Philadelphia playing keep up, as is expected by Vegas.

RECEIVER

A.J. Brown $10,200 - Captain or Flex

Most of the Eagles' offense was off in last week's shellacking to the 49ers. Brown was one of the only bright spots, as he caught 8 of 13 targets for 114 yards. Regardless of the game script, he will be Hurts' primary option. He has a ceiling similar to CeeDee Lamb but should have a lower roster percentage, especially at Captain.

DeVonta Smith $8,400 - Flex

Smith is consistently priced nearly $2,000 less than Brown, but he matches Brown's workload often. Smith hits his ceiling far less often, but he can still make value at his salary relatively easily. He's been targeted 27 times over the last three weeks and is averaging over 100 yards. He's also scored twice over that span. His price is in an awkward range above Swift and Tony Pollard, which should make him a unique option.

Dallas Goedert $5,400 - Flex

Goedert is making his return from a three-week absence. On the season, he has averaged nearly six targets per game. He's also demonstrated a ceiling not seen by many players under $6,000. He's an excellent contrarian addition to any build type.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Quez Watkins $2,400 - Flex

Watkins missed a portion of the season due to injury but has worked his way back to a full-time role. He played 64% of the snaps last week, and that number should climb going forward. His price is growing, but he's still too cheap, given how often he's on the field.

COWBOYS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott $10,600 - Captain or Flex

Prescott is cheaper than Hurts and easier to stack. He's also the 3-point home favorite. Hurts is more difficult to build around because even if he is the optimal Captain, there are multiple ways he can get there. If Prescott is the optimal Captain, it is almost always going to be on the heels of multiple strong performances by his receivers. The Eagles could certainly blow the doors off of this game and change their current perception after a tough 49ers loss, but it's more likely that Dallas will keep the game close. This scenario bodes great for Prescott and the passing offense.

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard $8,000 - Captain or Flex

Pollard, like Swift, has one of the strongest workloads in the league. He has been less productive with his opportunity but gets the Captain nod based on his role as the home favorite. He has scored in three straight games but has hit the 100-yard-bonus just once this year. His role gets boosted because he's averaging five targets per game over the last three contests.

RECEIVER

CeeDee Lamb $11,800 - Captain or Flex

Lamb and Brown are two of the best receivers in the league. Lamb leads by just a few targets and less than 30 yards on the year but is $1,400 more expensive. The price difference is likely due to the projected game script, as Vegas expects Dallas to win. The top four options in this contest are tightly packed with similar projections and ceilings, but Lamb lands fourth based on price.

Brandin Cooks $7,000 - Flex

Outside of one incredible performance, Cooks has consistently earned around four targets per game. His price is so high because he's scored in 5-of-11 games and demonstrated that he is still capable of hitting the 100-yard-bonus. If Prescott lands in the Captain spot, Cooks is likely to accompany him in the flex.

Jake Ferguson $6,800 - Flex

Ferguson's price is a bit steep relative to some other options in his range, but he's still earning one of the league's best target shares amongst tight-ends. In terms of Dallas starters, he has the lowest floor. Especially given how closely he's priced to both team's star running backs. He will also carry a very high roster percentage.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

KaVontae Turpin $1,600 - Flex

Michael Gallup is the team's third receiver, but Turpin is earning a similar opportunity at half the price. Turpin is also getting more designed touches as opposed to Gallup's deep targets. If Gallup connects deep, he could easily find himself in the optimal lineup, but Turpin is the preferred option at cost.