Sunday Showdown Week 13

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Green Bay Packers are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 6-point underdogs with a 42.5-point total. The Packers exploded on offense against the Lions as Jordan Love put together his best performance to date. The Packers' roster percentages are difficult to project because the field may be weary of trusting one great performance. With so much experience building Showdown lineups for the Chiefs this season, expect their roster percentages to be higher across the board. Justin Watson and Rashee Rice earning price hikes will help keep their roster percentages more reasonable than in recent weeks. They will be staples to pair with Patrick Mahomes II at Captain and Travis Kelce in the flex. A strong way to leverage the field will be with Isiah Pacheco at Captain and the Chiefs defense in the flex, in case the field lays into the thought that the Packers will succeed through the air again.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Jerick McKinnon - Groin - Questionable
• Jayden Reed - Chest - Questionable
• Dontayvion Wicks - Knee - Questionable
• Aaron Jones - Knee - Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Isiah Pacheco
• Travis Kelce
• Rashee Rice
• Christian Watson

PACKERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jordan Love $9,600 - Flex

Love put together the best performance of his career against the Lions. He has now accounted for multiple touchdowns each of the last three weeks. At $9,600, he will be a flex staple. He doesn't fit great as Captain, as there are so many strong options for the Chiefs.

RUNNING BACK

AJ Dillon $7,800 - Flex

Dillon has led the backfield many times this season, and has yet to pay off. His salary has somehow grown, even with his consistently lackluster performance. He will see roughly 15 touches, but there are much better options in his price range.

RECEIVER

Christian Watson $6,800 - Captain or Flex

Watson's fantastic Thanksgiving performance came on the heels of a similar opportunity he'd seen all season. The only significant difference was a snap share that jumped to a season-high 94%. He managed to finally put it all together as the team's primary receiver, yet he's priced as a secondary option. He's a high-risk/high-reward option for tournaments.

Jayden Reed $7,000 - Flex

Reed has led his receiving corps by default most of the season due to inconsistent play from the sophomores Watson and Romeo Doubs. Even with Watson re-emerging last week, Reed earned eight targets and caught a touchdown. He's still a fair option for Captain consideration, but with such inconsistent play from this passing game, stick to just one of the receivers for multi-entry tournaments.

Romeo Doubs $6,400 - Flex

The Packers' receiving corps is finally hitting its stride. Doubs appears to be the odd man out but is not discounted enough to warrant consideration in small-field tournaments. In a large field, though, he is easy leverage over more popular options.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Patrick Taylor $2,000 - Flex

Taylor earned four opportunities on a whopping 48% of the snaps last week in Jones' absence. He's going to be in a similarly competitive game this week, so he should maintain a sizeable snap share.

Dontayvion Wicks $800 - Flex

With all of the Chiefs' ancillary receivers priced down, Wicks may slip through the cracks. He was inactive last week but was targeted at least four times per game for the four weeks prior.

CHIEFS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II $12,400 - Captain or Flex

Mahomes will be the most popular and logical Captain. He projects significantly better than any other player. To remain unique, he will either need to be over-stacked with up to four receivers or under-stacked with just one receiver in hopes of a rushing touchdown and split target distribution.

RUNNING BACK

Isiah Pacheco $10,200 - Captain or Flex

Pacheco should see roughly 20 opportunities against a Packers defense that will give up rushing production. He also tends to carry a reasonable roster percentage as the field gravitates towards receiving options to pair with Mahomes.

RECEIVER

Travis Kelce $11,800 - Captain or Flex

For much of the year, Kelce has failed to hit value at cost on Showdown slates. He has now failed to hit the 100-yard-bonus for four straight weeks and has just five touchdowns on the year. Given his slate-breaking ceiling, he will always be in consideration, but he does not need to be prioritized over Mahomes or even Pacheco at Captain.

Rashee Rice $8,400 - Captain or Flex

Rice caught 8 of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown last week against the Raiders. He also came close to matching his season-high snap share with 67%. He earned a sizeable price increase, which should keep his roster percentage reasonable. He is a unique option for Captain in large-field tournaments.

Justin Watson $5,200 - Flex

Watson is finally priced as a starter after many weeks of being the fifth highest priced at the third highest snap share. He's still too cheap, given that he's the only other receiver with projectable opportunity outside of Rice.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Noah Gray $1,200 - Flex

Gray is a fan-favorite punt play every week when he's under $2,000. He's guaranteed a target and has a reliable catch rate. He's a fair option in small-field tournaments as a great candidate for a non-zero total.

Kadarius Toney $1,600 - Flex

Toney is worth considering over Gray. He's more expensive with the same opportunity but is much more likely to break a long play than Gray. They will carry similar roster percentages.