Sunday Showdown Week 17

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Green Bay Packers are heading to Minnesota to take on the Vikings as .5-point underdogs with a 43.5-point total.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Christian Watson - Hamstring - Questionable

Dontayvion Wicks - Chest/Ankle - Questionable

Jordan Addison - Ankle - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Justin Jefferson
• Jaren Hall
• Aaron Jones
• Ty Chandler
• Jayden Reed

PACKERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jordan Love $11,000 - Flex

Love has performed well over the second half of the season, but his price forces a difficult decision. Playing love forces one to stack the Packers, which makes playing Justin Jefferson and Jaren Hall nearly impossible. With the game essentially a pick'em, either offense is viable but the Vikings are far easier to build around.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $9,800 - Captain or Flex

Jones was fully healthy for the first time in at least five games last week. He played 52% of the snaps and handled 24 opportunities. He only caught 1 of his 4 targets but his usage was promising and he hit the 100-yard-bonus on the ground. Going forward he will split snaps down the middle with AJ Dillon but will handle the bulk of the touches.

RECEIVER

Jayden Reed $7,400 - Captain or Flex

Reed missed last week due to injury, but he has otherwise been Love's most reliable target. His price dropped slightly with his absence, which makes him appealing as a Captain option. Players in this price range don't often pan out at Captain, but Reed will be the top target for the Packers with their thinned WR corps.

Romeo Doubs $9,000 - Flex

Doubs is not a better option than Reed, regardless of price, so he doesn't cut Captain. He does, however, fit great for Love stacks. His price is close enough to Jones that his roster percentage should be low.

Tucker Kraft $5,800 - Flex

Kraft has played nearly 100% of the snaps since Luke Musgrave's injury. He's averaged almost six targets per game over the last four games. His yardage totals have been unappealing, which is what makes his price a bit out of hand. Even still, he's one of the only viable options in this price range so he'll be in the player pool.

Malik Heath $3,400 - Flex

If Watson and Wicks are both out, Heath would be a full-time starter. Last week he played 77% of the snaps but saw just 1 target. There are cheaper options that project for similar volume.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Bo Melton $2,400 - Flex

One of the cheaper viable options is Melton, who earned 6 targets last week on 38% of the snaps. He's worth saving the $1,000 from Heath even though he won't be on the field as often.

VIKINGS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jaren Hall $8,400 - Captain or Flex

Hall is hoping to play his first full game of the season. His price at $8,400 is far too low when considering DraftKings has been unwilling to go this low with the likes of Trevor Siemian. Hall is mostly an unknown, but he does have rushing upside and it wouldn't take much for him to hit value. It helps that he has a condensed target tree, and his options are affordable.

RUNNING BACK

Ty Chandler $8,200 - Captain or Flex

Chandler has taken over as the starter even after Alexander Mattison returned from injury. He played 65% of the snaps last week but handled just 8 carries. The week prior, he was given 27 opportunities and converted for 157 total yards and a touchdown. It's difficult to project what his workload will look like going forward, but his snap share appears safe.

RECEIVER

Justin Jefferson $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Jefferson is the first player to hit $12,000 in quite some time. He's been targeted 20 times over the last weeks. He produced 225 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions during that span. Hall is unlikely to throw as often as Nick Mullens did, but Jefferson's target share is secure enough that it should not matter.

Jordan Addison $7,800 - Flex

Addison is much less comfortable with an option than Jefferson. He's dealing with an ankle injury, and his price is not low enough to allow for much wiggle room. Hall is certain to pepper Jefferson with targets, but the rest of the target distribution is up in the air. In 20 max tournaments predicated around the Vikings' passing game, Addison is a necessary risk to take as there aren't a plethora of stacking options for Hall.

K.J. Osborn $6,400 - Flex

Osborn has the same concerns as Addison with the same result. He was targeted 7 times resulting in 5 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown last week. His impressive performance doesn't mean much as Hall takes over. Osborn will have to remain in the player pool for Vikings stacks even if his salary feels a bit rich.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Johnny Mundt $2,800 - Flex

Josh Oliver is significantly more expensive than Mundt yet he's not playing that many more snaps, nor has he earned much more opportunity. Mundt played more snaps last week and earned more targets. He's a great contrarian option to add to Vikings-heavy builds to provide salary relief.