OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Buffalo Bills are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins as 2-point favorites with a 48.5-point total. The Dolphins will be the popular team to build around using optimizers. This is because of their multiple viable punt options. Unfortunately, this build type rarely ever works. To combat this, it is worth considering a max-one rule on Punt plays. A Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and De'Von Achane lineup could hit, but it's unlikely. Allen is the most likely Captain, and he has many more options to stack with. He can also be played in multiple ways ranging from not stacking at all, to triple stacking. The Bills happen to be the favorites, but the spread doesn't matter much for this contest. The total is high, and this game could easily hit the over. This contest favors more balanced lineups while hoping to get ceiling performances from some ancillary plays.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Raheem Mostert - Knee/Ankle - Questionable
- Jaylen Waddle - Ankle - Questionable
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
BILLS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen $11,000 - Captain or Flex
Allen will be the most popular Captain, for good reason. He's likely the only MVP candidate with a chance to stand in Lamar Jackson's way at this point. He is a lock for multiple touchdowns and will be active through the air and on the ground. The Dolphins' electric skill position options will be able to push the pace and keep Allen's arm active.
RUNNING BACK
James Cook $8,00 - Captain or Flex
Cook has received at least 15 opportunities in each of the last 6 games. He's playing over half of the snaps and handling most of the red zone work. The only fear would be for Latavius Murray to vulture a touchdown inside the five-yard line. Fortunately, Cook gets most of the work between the 20s to make up for it. He's also been more active in the passing game. His three receiving touchdowns over the last six weeks make him a viable stack with Allen.
RECEIVER
Stefon Diggs $10,200 - Flex
Diggs is one of the safest options in the league. He's also reasonably priced and pairs great with Allen. The only issue is that De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill are both in this price range and are better options. This makes the slate unique in that we want to stack Allen but have a hard time making Diggs work.
Gabe Davis $7,000 - Flex
Davis will be the best option to pair with Allen since Diggs will be difficult to afford. This may drive his roster percentage higher than normal, and he's certainly capable of putting up a goose egg. He's also got the chance to rival any ceiling in this contest. Last week, he caught 2 passes for 21 yards. The week prior, he went off for 130 yards and a touchdown. He's a risk worth taking.
Dalton Kincaid $6,200 - Flex
Kincaid has taken over as the primary receiving tight end. He has safe volume but doesn't often produce high yardage totals. His best game was last week, with 4 receptions for 87 yards. He will likely see another 7 targets this week and is priced in a weird range, which should make him fairly low-rostered.
Khalil Shakir $5,200 - Flex
Shakir's price makes little sense, and he's only worth considering in large field multi-entry tournaments for contrarian Allen stacks. He put together a quality performance last week, but that's mostly due to his only receiving touchdown of the season.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Dawson Knox $2,000 - Flex
Knox is in the same boat as Shakir where he's only viable as a unique option for Allen stacks. His ceiling is 3 catches for 30 yards, which is barely enough to make value at cost. He needs a touchdown to truly make a difference over all of the cheap Dolphins options.
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Tua Tagovailoa $10,000 - Flex
Tagovailoa is technically still in the MVP hunt and is typically a fantastic option. The reason he doesn't land in Captain consideration is because of how viable Achane, Diggs, Hill, and Allen are. Committing to playing Tagovailoa means pairing him with Hill and Achane. This results in not only missing out on Allen but also needing to play two punt options. This also typically results in a Dolphins' onslaught which is unlikely to hit with this game environment.
RUNNING BACK
De'Von Achane $9,000 - Captain or Flex
Achane would be the most viable play of the slate at $10,200, yet he's somehow only $9,000. If Mostert is declared out, Achane will once again handle a strong workload in which he's been exceptionally efficient. Last week, as the primary ball carrier, he saw 19 opportunities, resulting in 137 total yards and a receiving touchdown.
Jeff Wilson Jr. $3,200 - Flex
With Mostert out last week, Wilson handled 3 carries and 4 targets on 49% of the snaps. He produced just 34 total yards, but his receptions made him hit value at cost. His price went up slightly, but his workload makes him worthy of consideration assuming Mostert is sidelined.
RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill $11,200 - Captain or Flex
Hill has fallen short of hitting 2,000 yards, but he still has plenty of motivation as the Dolphins are playing for the AFC East title. The only reason for fading Hill would be in favor of Diggs for Allen stacks. Otherwise, Hill is worth locking into every lineup alongside Achane. Consider this pair similar to Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen as two players who make up the majority of an offense.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. $4,400 - Flex
Wilson is technically the second option behind Hill and should see an elevated snap share. His price boost is unwarranted as the Dolphins have no issue simply feeding Hill and Achane. He'll see around four targets but will have trouble hitting value unless he finds the end zone again.
Braxton Berrios $2,600 - Flex
Berrios is far more viable as he will see a similar snap share to Wilson at almost half the cost. He only saw two targets last week but was on the field for 43% of the snaps with Jaylen Waddle sidelined.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Durham Smythe $3,000 - Flex
Smythe will likely be the least popular of the ancillary options but my favorite by far. His price proves to be difficult to get to based on how the popular options work out, but he's averaged 4 targets and 47 yards over the last three games. He's also playing over 70% of the snaps.