Sunday Showdown Week 16

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New England Patriots are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 7-point underdogs with a 35-point total. Russell Wilson finds himself in a great spot as a heavy favorite, but his price makes the slate interesting. Pairing Wilson with his top receiver Courtland Sutton eats up nearly half of the available salary. Even with injuries on the Patriot's side of the ball, there isn't a ton of viable value to make up the difference. This is one of the rare slates where a lineup excluding a Quarterback could be viable. Even with Zappe at just $8,800 he's not a priority either. He is more likely to turn the ball over multiple times than he is to score multiple times. The most likely optimal lineup will include a Wilson stack, but don't be afraid to explore some options without a Quarterback and give a boost to the defenses.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Rhamondre Stevenson - Ankle - Out

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Ankle - Out

Hunter Henry - Knee - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Russell Wilson
• Courtland Sutton
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Javonte Williams
• Demario Douglas

PATRIOTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Bailey Zappe $8,800 - Flex

Zappe attempted his most passes of the season last week with 31. He completed 23 for 180 yards in a game that set up well for an opposing Quarterback. Now he's set up to face an even better secondary in a worse game environment. DraftKings made it interesting by pricing Zappe so low, but he's still not a priority on a slate that should favor the Broncos.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott $10,200 - Captain or Flex

Since Rhamondre Stevenson went down with an injury, Elliott has handled an elite workload. He's playing over 80% of the snaps and has increased his receiving involvement. Regardless of game script, Elliott will be the focal point of the New England offense and should be made a priority.

RECEIVER

Demario Douglas $6,800 - Captain or Flex

A heavily injured Patriots receiving corps has set Douglas up for a featured role, and he's performed well. He missed Weeks 13 and 14 due to injury but returned in Week 15 to 72% of the snaps and 5 targets. Based on his low salary and high projected volume he is in a rare situation where he can be a viable Captain at sub-$7,000.

DeVante Parker $5,000 - Flex

Parker equaled Douglas' target share in Week 15 after missing Week 14. He also played 20% more snaps. Douglas is expected to regain the top role after getting back to full health, but Parker is a fair pivot at $1,800 less.

Hunter Henry $7,000 - Flex

Henry enters this weekend questionable after putting together his most well-rounded performance of the season last week. He is expected to see a similar volume to Parker, yet he's $200 more expensive than Douglas. Given his injury status and the preferred receivers in his price range, Henry is relegated to a unique large-field tournament option.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Tyquan Thornton $1,200 - Flex

Due to mounting injuries for the Patriots, Thornton will play the majority of the snaps this week. The last time he played 95% of the snaps he caught 3-of-5 targets for 17 yards. If he sees that volume again, he will easily pay off his $1,200 salary.

BRONCOS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Russell Wilson $11,400 - Captain or Flex

Wilson has averaged just under 30 passes per game this season. He also hasn't hit the 300-yard-bonus since Week 3. A Quarterback who is a 7-point home favorite will almost always land in the optimal lineup, but Wilson's salary complicates things. He will need multiple touchdowns to hit value at cost. While history makes him a viable Captain, this game could be slow enough to warrant building lineups around no Quarterback.

RUNNING BACK

Javonte Williams $9,400 - Captain or Flex

Williams is in the best position of the slate. Last week he saw his lowest snap share since Week 6, yet he still earned 14 touches. As a heavy favorite at home, expect the Broncos to lean on Williams and the rest of the running room. Williams can be played in the same lineup as either Samaje Perine or Jaleel McLaughlin.

Samaje Perine $3,600 - Flex

Perine will play around 30% of the snaps and see around 7 opportunities. He can pay off his salary with just a few catches.

RECEIVER

Courtland Sutton $11,000 - Captain or Flex

Sutton has been Wilson's top target for much of the season. He has 10 receiving touchdowns on the year. He's averaging just over five targets per game over the last five games, but he's been efficient with his opportunities. At $11,000 he finds himself in the same role as Wilson, where he needs a touchdown or two to make value as opposed to some of the cheaper options. As the WR1 on a heavy home favorite, he's in a great spot. The price of stacking Wilson and Sutton is high enough to where they will need to have one of their best games of the season.

Jerry Jeudy $8,000 - Flex

Jeudy's workload has been comparable to Sutton's but for whatever reason he isn't connecting with Wilson as often. He's been targeted 13 times over the last two weeks but has just 5 catches. On this slate, where Sutton and Wilson are so expensive, Jeudy is a viable pivot in hopes that he can make good on his target share.

Marvin Mims Jr.$2,800 - Flex

Mims is a bit pricey for his role, but he has handled at least three opportunities a game over the last five games. He will be a popular option to pair with Wilson to help mitigate the lofty salaries for Denver.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Lucas Krull $800 - Flex

Denver rolls out multiple tight ends, but Krull is the best point-per-dollar option. Last week he played 45% of the snaps and was targeted 3 times. Two weeks ago he was targeted deep downfield for a long completion. He should have no trouble hitting value at just $800.