A depressed market marking a marked change in the way the running back position is being valued isn't just a big story in the NFL. Running backs of all kinds - elite, second tier, dead zone - are falling farther in drafts than they ever have before. While this should change how you approach the position in your draft, you still need to have a clear idea of where the tiers break, who is overvalued and undervalued at current ADP, and just how this year's crop of backs fits in your draft plan. Let's dive in.
ELITE RB1
Christian McCaffrey, SF
Austin Ekeler, LAC
Bijan Robinson, ATL
Nick Chubb, CLE
Saquon Barkley, NYG
Tony Pollard, DAL
TARGET AT ADP: Chubb, Pollard
CONSIDER AT ADP: McCaffrey, Ekeler, Robinson, Barkley
The top tier of running backs is cheaper than ever this year. The RB1 overall this year is going to come from this group. If you get one in the first or second, you can ignore running back until the 6th-7th round. All are worth at least considering at ADP, but a few stand out as values at their current price.
The opportunity to start your draft with Chubb and Pollard if you draw a pick near the 1-2 turn may be too good to pass up. Both are in line to get the largest workloads of their careers in what should be good running games and at least average offenses. McCaffrey will cost a top-five pick, but with news out of San Francisco camp that the team has been stressing running backs as receivers, he can be worth that and then some. Ekeler proved his 2021 touchdown spike wasn't a fluke and posted a career-high 107 receptions, there's nothing wrong with using a mid-first on him. Robinson should get as much work as he can handle in a good running game, but he'll likely cost a first, and Barkley is also in an offense on the rise, and he might be available in the second round.
BOOM/BUST RB1
Derrick Henry, TEN
Josh Jacobs, LV
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
Joe Mixon, CIN
Najee Harris, PIT
TARGET AT ADP: Gibbs
CONSIDER AT ADP: Henry, Jacobs, Taylor, Mixon, Harris
The members of this group could make your draft by hitting as a strong RB1 available outside of the top 15-18 picks or make you wish you had a do-over when the reasons they are available outside of the top 15-18 rear their ugly heads.
Gibbs is the headliner here as the potential next McCaffrey/Ekeler, a player who can be a strong fantasy RB1 while getting 10-15 carries a game. His offense should set him up for success, and the Lions obviously have a plan for the #12 overall pick. If you can get him in the fourth, it's worth taking the chance on the rookie. It's understandable why the rest of this group might tempt you. Fantasy players have made a lot of money betting against the doubts that plague Henry and the fate of Mike Vrabel's team, but wow, the offensive line is brutal. Jacobs and Taylor are proven talents. But their contract situations present a lot of uncertainty, and both have shown signs that they are willing to take a stand on behalf of their position. Mixon looked like a running back starting to decline last year, but he'll get the bulk of the work in a great offense's backfield. Harris was unimpressive for most of last year, but his foot issue that got better as the year went on might have been a factor. He finished 2022 with his most productive stretch of the season.
STRONG RB2
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Dameon Pierce, HOU
David Montgomery, DET
Breece Hall, NYJ
TARGET AT ADP: Montgomery, Pierce
AVOID AT ADP: Stevenson, Hall
This tier and the next blur together, as a veteran signing or two (or a team getting through camp/preseason without signing a veteran) will shift some players. This group has three players who are very likely to be the clear lead back in their backfield (as of now), plus one who is in an extremely fantasy-friendly role.
Montgomery is the top target here, as he is inexplicably going in the sixth round or so, even though he is inheriting a role that a lesser talent who contributed almost nothing in the passing game turned into the RB22 season in PPR leagues. There's a lot of upside here to harvest. Pierce's outlook is bright enough to consider taking him in the sixth and hoping Montgomery falls to the seventh. He has improved his passing game abilities, and this Texans offense should be competent with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, which represents a material improvement from last year. Stevenson had a good fantasy season by collecting a lot of short receptions in a limited offense, and he is playing for a team that has been sniffing around veteran running backs all summer. Hall could hit if he has a strong recovery from an ACL tear. But Dalvin Cook or another veteran looms, and the cautious approach of the Jets should be making us more reluctant to take him in the third round. Hall could still make people look very smart if he returns to form sooner than later.
HIGH FLOOR RB2
Travis Etienne Jr., JAX
Aaron Jones, GB
Ken Walker III, SEA
Miles Sanders, CAR
Alexander Mattison, MIN
Cam Akers, LAR
James Conner, ARI
Rachaad White, TB
TARGET AT ADP: Sanders, Akers
CONSIDER AT ADP: Etienne, Jones, Walker, Mattison, Conner, White
There's a lot of guaranteed volume in this tier. Just who maximizes the value of that volume and how much volume there will be is yet to be seen. The tier should yield a discount fantasy RB1 or two, but also some backs that show why this guaranteed volume is coming at a discount. This group corresponds with the typical "dead zone" for running backs, but that part of the draft is later than usual and presents a lot more appeal in drafts than it has in recent years.
Sanders and Akers are moderately priced as sixth-round picks, and they are the best targets at cost. We know Sanders is talented, and his new team might not be as committed to an RBBC as his old team was. The Panthers offensive line is a good run-blocking unit, and that should be a focus of the offense. Sanders could also get more pass-catching opportunities as a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs, actually) was his top target last year at Alabama. Akers finished strong, and the Rams did little to shore up their backfield behind him. He should be a lead back. None of the other backs in this tier are avoids, but they all have questions when you look at their price tag. Tank Bigsby could take work away from Etienne, but Etienne's offense is going to improve, and he should still lead the backfield in touches. Jones could be the most reliable target for Jordan Love, but the Packers offense will be limited and they are still trying to make AJ Dillon a thing. Walker's offense could also improve, but he's sharing with a rookie who should take passing down work. Mattison could be sharing with a veteran if the backs behind him don't step up soon in camp. Conner and White are clear lead backs in bad offenses, which usually costs a 4th-5th, but only costs about a 7th this year.
HIGH CEILING RB2/FLEX
Javonte Williams, DEN
James Cook, BUF
Alvin Kamara, NO
Isiah Pacheco, KC
D'Andre Swift, PHI
Antonio Gibson, WAS
Dalvin Cook, FA
TARGET AT ADP: J.Cook
CONSIDER AT ADP: Williams, Kamara, Pacheco, Swift, Gibson, D.Cook
There's some upside in this group to outperform draft cost, but chances are no one in this tier is going to make your draft. Still, they can provide strong flex plays or become an every-week RB2 that helps you in team builds that mostly ignore running back.
James Cook is the most intriguing at a reasonable cost of an 8th-round pick or so. He has had a good summer and should lead a very good offense's backfield in touches. The rest of the group is priced about right but could still be key parts of winning fantasy teams. Taking Williams at ADP is betting on Sean Payton to get this running game on track and Williams to complete his ahead-of-schedule comeback without incident. Kamara only having a three-game suspension makes him attractive at ADP, and there's buzz out of New Orleans camp that he has regained form. Still, he has a lot better running mates than he had last year. Pacheco will share the backfield with a passing down back, but his results last year are hard to ignore. His role might not be that different than Walker's in Seattle. Swift is going to be used a lot as a receiver, and he's in an ultra-productive backfield - albeit one that will use four backs. There's hope that Gibson will be used in a way more befitting his versatile talents under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Dalvin Cook doesn't have a team as of this writing, but wherever he goes, the expectation will be that he's, at worst, a 1A in his backfield. That he has been available this long isn't a great sign for his ceiling this season.
FLEX APPEAL
De'Von Achane, MIA
Khalil Herbert, CHI
J.K. Dobbins, BAL
Zach Charbonnet, SEA
Brian Robinson, WAS
Samaje Perine, DEN
Tank Bigsby, JAX
Rashaad Penny, PHI
AJ Dillon, GB
Jerick McKinnon, KC
Jaylen Warren, PIT
Damien Harris, BUF
Gus Edwards, BAL
Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
Jamaal Williams, NO
TARGET AT ADP: Achane, Herbert, Charbonnet, Bigsby, Edwards, Gainwell
CONSIDER AT ADP: Robinson, Perine, Warren, Harris
AVOID AT ADP: Dobbins, Penny, Dillon, McKinnon, Williams
Now we are to the tier that can decide a league champion. None of these backs are going to be reliable starts to open the season, but between the possibility of injuries in their backfield and performances that demand more work than originally planned, there are lots of potential league winners.
The best targets in this tier are led by rookies. De'Von Achane should be a shot in the arm for the Miami backfield with his explosiveness and pass-catching ability out of the backfield. Charbonnet and Bigsby are versatile talents who will be much closer to a 50-50 split in fantasy value than their ADPs indicate. Herbert is worth a look as the best back in a crowded backfield. Edwards could be the lead back if J.K. Dobbins stays away or can't stay healthy, and he's almost free in drafts. Gainwell has done well with what the Eagles have asked of him, and judging by the injury history of D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, they could be asking him to do more this year.
There are other backs in this tier that are worth a look at ADP. Robinson will be improved with a year of experience and especially a full offseason to recover and regain form after playing only a little over a month after being shot in the leg last year. He could also get a boost from a potential offensive improvement. Perine isn't being priced like a solid back who could get half of the work in an invigorated running game. The Steelers love Warren, and he could produce closer to a 50-50 RBBC than anyone expected. Harris is a quality inside runner who could be part of the Bills having a more balanced approach on offense and attempt to take some punishment off of Josh Allen's plate in the short-yardage running game.
There are reasons to avoid backs in this tier at ADP. Dobbins is talented enough, and the Ravens offense could improve enough to make us look silly for fading him, but there are backs with fewer questions available the area of drafts he is still going in. Penny is in a productive backfield and could have his moments for best-ball leagues, but his durability history is impossible to ignore. Dillon was a dud with increased opportunity last year, and the offense is likely to take a step back. McKinnon could still be a league winner in December, but the Chiefs won't use him much early in the season, and he'll likely get dropped by the team that drafts him at some point. Williams isn't worth taking at ADP with Kamara only being suspended for three games and the Saints offense unlikely to create nearly as many opportunities for goal-line carries as the Lions did.
INJURY UPSIDE BENCH RB
Tyjae Spears, TEN
Elijah Mitchell, SF
Zamir White, LV
Evan Hull, IND
Deneric Prince, KC
Roschon Johnson, CHI
Jerome Ford, CLE
Devin Singletary, HOU
Tyler Allgeier, ATL
Malik Davis, DAL
Raheem Mostert, MIA
Chase Brown, CIN
Kendre Miller, NO
Chuba Hubbard, CAR
Zach Evans, LAR
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL
Joshua Kelley, LAC
Zonovan Knight, NYJ
Craig Reynolds, DET
LATE ROUND TARGETS: Spears, White, Hull, Prince
VERY LATE ROUND TARGETS: Davis, Brown, Evans, Patterson, Kelley, Knight, Reynolds
Now we are getting to the part of the draft where you are filling out your bench and hoping to hit on a lottery ticket or two. Rookies are the best lottery tickets at running back. Spears, Hull, and Prince are all having good summers, and all could get on the field right away and earn even more work with a good performance. White is worth taking late as long as Josh Jacobs isn't at the Las Vegas camp. Other targets in this group that are worth a look include the rookie Chase Brown in Cincinnati, the presumptive backup to Tony Pollard, Malik Davis (stay tuned), the presumptive backup to Cam Akers, rookie Zach Evans (stay tuned), Cordarrelle Patterson, who could return to a role in the passing game while still carrying Bijan Robinson injury upside, Kelley, who is the presumptive #2 for the Chargers (stay tuned), Knight, who will be the #2 if the Jets don't sign Dalvin Cook and #3 if they do, and Reynolds, who should be the #3 in Detroit and backup to David Montgomery's juicy fantasy role. The other backs in this tier aren't necessarily avoids at ADP, but they aren't among the most attractive picks in the tier.
VETERAN DEPTH BENCH RB
D'Onta Foreman, CHI
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
Leonard Fournette, FA
Ezekiel Elliott, FA
Melvin Gordon III, BAL
Kareem Hunt, FA
Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA
Latavius Murray, BUF
This group all has a track record of at least modest production, but they are all well past their peak fantasy value. None of them are going to save your season, but all could have stretches of sustained RB2/Flex value if opportunity arises. Injuries could increase the early opportunity for Fournette, Elliott, and Hunt, but they are more likely to be backups or passing down backs at best. Foreman, Wilson, and Murray all probably need injuries to a back ahead of them to matter in fantasy leagues. Edwards-Helaire could get some touches to begin the year as the Chiefs ease in McKinnon and Prince, and Gordon could get some touches to begin the year if the J.K. Dobbins absence doesn't resolve itself.
END OF BENCH RB
Jordan Mason, SF
Tyrion Davis-Price, SF
Eric Gray, NYG
Matt Breida, NYG
Isaiah Spiller, LAC
Kene Nwangwu, MIN
Ty Chandler, MIN
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, TB
Chris Evans, CIN
Boston Scott, PHI
Deon Jackson, IND
Zack Moss, IND
Pierre Strong Jr NE
Kevin Harris, NE
Keaontay Ingram, ARI
Rico Dowdle, DAL
D'Ernest Johnson, JAX
Trayveon Williams, CIN
At this point in the draft, you are filling out your bench with backs who are vying for not very exciting #2 jobs or more exciting #3 jobs that are farther from opportunity. You could also call this the "monitor training camp battles" tier. Those battles to watch: San Francisco #3, Giants #2 (which is probably Breida's, but he could be outplayed in short order by Gray if Barkley goes down), Chargers #2 (which is likely Kelley's), Minnesota #2 (which could end up being a veteran not on the roster right now), Cincinnati #2/third round back (which could be shared), Tampa #2, Indianapolis #2, New England #2 (which could end up being a veteran not on the roster right now), Arizona #2 (which could be shared), Dallas #3 and Jacksonville #3.
ROOKIE WAIVER-WIRE WATCH LIST
Israel Abanikanda, NYJ
DeWayne McBride, MIN
Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS
Deuce Vaughn, DAL
Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN
Sean Tucker, TB
Keaton Mitchell, BAL
Kenny McIntosh, SEA
Rookies can increase their value faster than any backs outside of players elevated by injuries ahead of them, so they should be prominent on our waiver wire watch list or deep league late-round target list. Even if members of this group end up on practice squads, they are still names to remember, and a few names could be added during the preseason.
DEEP LEAGUE ROLE PLAYER BENCH RB
Chase Edmonds, TB
Ameer Abdullah, LV
DeeJay Dallas, SEA
Raheem Blackshear, CAR
Michael Carter, NYJ
Kyren Williams, LAR
This group doesn't have the profile to emerge into a fantasy-relevant role in typical leagues, but they can be bye/injury/emergency material in a best-case scenario and should be of most interest in very deep leagues.
LAST CHANCE? WAIVER-WIRE WATCH LIST
Trey Sermon, PHI
Justin Jackson, DET
Kenyan Drake, IND
Marlon Mack, ARI
Myles Gaskin, MIA
Justice Hill, BAL
Abram Smith, MIN
One more tier for deep leagues and our waiver wire watch list. These backs are fighting for roster spots, but if they can make the 53, they'll have a path to value if players ahead of them go down. Of course, more waiver-wire watch list backs could emerge over the next month, and Footballguys rankings will have you covered.