Fantasy Overview - Week 4

We are three weeks into the season, and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week, I'll take a look at the top 10 quarterbacks and top 15 running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends by fantasy points (PPR scoring) from each skill position and provide my take on which players belong and which are destined to decline.

QUARTERBACK

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No elite quarterbacks...yet

Surprisingly, we don't have any quarterbacks over 85 fantasy points. Usually, at this time, we have three or four quarterbacks in this range. Kirk Cousins currently sits atop the rankings with 76.7 points. His 1,075 yards and 9 touchdowns lead both categories. After Cousins, only Justin Herbert (70.4) has over 70 points.

The biggest surprises at the top are Tua Tagovailoa (3), Jordan Love (5), Russell Wilson (8), and C.J. Stroud (10). All four were projected to finish outside of the top 10 in preseason rankings. You can make a case for Tagovailoa being in the top 10 due to the weapons he has on offense in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, plus offensive-minded head coach Mike McDaniel. The writing was on the wall, but we still needed to see him (Tagovailoa) execute the game plan and stay away from any big hits that could result in a concussion. So far, he and the Dolphins have exceeded expectations once again. Stroud being in the top 10 is a huge surprise after watching him go through some growing pains in the preseason. The Texans have decent weapons to work with in Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and emerging rookie Tank Dell. These pieces to the puzzle may mean Stroud has found a rather successful niche in Houston. A top-10 finish may not be in the cards, but he is performing well above expectations at the moment. He is the only rookie in the top 20, let alone the top 10.

Usually, we see a correlation between high rushing output and quarterback fantasy success. Looking at the top 10, only three quarterbacks have 100 yards rushing or more. Lamar Jackson (193), Patrick Mahomes II (103), and Jalen Hurts (100). If anyone is going to catapult into the top 10, it will most likely be a quarterback who runs the ball well and often. This includes Justin Fields, who, despite his shortcomings this season, he still has 109 rushing yards and a QB19 ranking after three games. Other quarterbacks to watch who could sneak into the top 10 include Deshaun Watson (83 rushing yards), Josh Dobbs (93), and Daniel Jones (107).

Some additional unexpected results after three weeks include:

Positive

• Brock Purdy, SF 12th
• Mac Jones, NE 14th
• Joshua Dobbs, ARI 16th
• Baker Mayfield, TB 18th

Negative

• Trevor Lawrence, JAC 17th
• Justin Fields, CHI 19th
• Dak Prescott, DAL 20th
• Daniel Jones, NYG 22nd
• Joe Burrow, CIN 30th

Needle Rising

• Anthony Richardson, IND - Richardson missed Week 3 with a concussion but he is expected back soon, if not this week. When he returns, he is worthy of finding your starting lineup due to his immense athleticism combined with his ability to score points with his arm. So far, Richardson has exceeded expectations. If he can stay injury-free he has the chance to put up respectable numbers every week.
• Jameis Winston, NO - Derek Carr (shoulder) may be out for at least one week, if not more, which opens the door for Winston to flex his downfield arm. The Saints boast a capable receiving corps that will benefit from Winston's ability to rack up the air yards.
• Aidan O'Connell, LSV - We have only seen O'Connell's impressive arm in the preseason but in limited action, he has produced. He is a deep sleeper that could be one of those NFL surprises that we always tend to see year in and year out. He is not a mobile weapon, but his big arm can rack up the yards. If the Raiders are looking for a move at quarterback, he could put his stamp on their future. Jimmy Garoppolo is in the concussion protocol and could miss Week 4. Could O'Connell get the nod? If so, he's a pre-emptive pick-up in two-quarterback leagues.

Needle down

• Desmond Ridder, ATL - The Falcons have Taylor Heinicke waiting in the wings if the team decides that Ridder isn't quite the answer to keep the team afloat. Atlanta is sitting pretty at 2-1 but offensively, they have just two passing touchdowns and five touchdowns total in three games. If that continues, Arthur Smith may elect to try a different approach at quarterback. Ridder was a rushing quarterback at Cincinnati, but through three games, he has 41 yards rushing. It's good, but not good enough to offset his passing deficiencies.
• Sam Howell, WAS - At times, Howell looks the part of a quarterback who can make consistent plays downfield, however, he also has some blunders, namely 5 interceptions in three games, to go with only 3 touchdown passes. The former fifth-round pick could find himself replaced by Jacoby Brissett if he doesn't improve. He has led the Commanders to a 2-1 record, but the house of cards could come crashing down with a string of losses.

RUNNING BACK

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What stands out?

• A few things come to mind immediately - Miami has two running backs in the top 6 with Raheem Mostert atop the rankings at #1 and rookie De'Von Achane sitting at #6. The high-scoring offensive game in Week 3 against Denver saw Miami score 10 offensive touchdowns, Both backs scored 4 touchdowns apiece in a monumental offensive display. Mostert was #6 entering Week 3 with three rushing touchdowns. He now has six rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. Achane wasn't much of a consideration at the time. Entering Week 3 he was ranked #86 with 5 yards on one carry and one reception for 4 yards. He now has 208 yards rushing, two touchdowns, and 34 yards receiving with two touchdowns. It is unclear how Miami will handle their backfield, but if Week 3 is any indication, the offense will be able to support both backs from a fantasy perspective. A fraction of that output would be enough to warrant another start. Start 'em if you got 'em and we'll see how things progress. Miami has 130 points scored in three games. The next closest team (Buffalo) has 91. Interestingly enough, Buffalo is Miami's Week 4 opponent.
• Ken Walker III sticks out. He is sitting at #3 with 204 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Rookie Zach Charbonnet has started to eat into Walker's carry share each week, but Walker is the one putting points on the board that Seattle is leaning on in the ground game.
• Kyren Williams, LAR is #5. He has taken over the lead running back role in Los Angeles after the Rams traded Cam Akers to the Vikings. Williams has four touchdowns with 142 rushing yards and 77 receiving yards. At 5'9, 194 pounds, Williams lacks that ideal size to be an every-week pounder, but he is holding his own with little competition for carries.
• James Conner, ARI is currently #8. He has an impressive 266 yards rushing (5.2 YPC) with two touchdowns. Arizona entered the season with low expectations, but Conner has been a bright spot so far for the Cardinals offense. He dominates the carry share and should continue to put up respectable numbers.
• Brian Robinson Jr, WAS is #9. He has been a surprise for the Commanders this season. He has 47 carries compared to Antonio Gibson's 7. He has 216 rushing yards, 49 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. Robinson's scoring touch has him in the top 10, and his domination of team carries may keep him in the top 20 this season. Either way, he is worthy of finding a spot in your lineup.
• Jerome Ford, CLE is #11. Ford is slated to benefit from the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb. He has scored twice so far, including a 100-yard effort in Week 2. He has an impressive, versatile skill set and is capable of gaining fantasy points in multiple ways. Ford is expected to stay in the top 20 and could go higher if he keeps his scoring touch.
• James Cook, BUF is #12. Cook has started the season strong with 267 yards rushing. Damien Harris is next in line in the backfield with only 51 yards. Cook is a top-12 back despite failing to find the end zone. Keep the faith with Cook. If he develops into a scorer, he'll see better days ahead.
• D'Andre Swift, PHI sits at #14 despite having an uncharacteristic low of 14 yards receiving. Swift was expected to be a weapon as a receiver for the Eagles, but he has been given the go-ahead to run the ball, which he has done to the tune of 308 yards rushing (2nd in the league). All but three of those yards came in the last two games. It appears as if Philadelphia has found their top rushing back.
• Zack Moss, IND is ranked #13. Moss had over 250 total yards and two scores. So far, he has been the best running back on the Colts, but with Anthony Richardson returning soon, along with the possibility of Jonathan Taylor, Moss's days as a productive top back could be numbered.
• Rachaad White, TB #18 has flashed some positive moments this season. He has 10 receptions for 64 yards, along with 150 yards rushing and 1 touchdown. He has edged out Sean Tucker 48 carries to 15 to this point. His YPC is a disappointing 3.1, but as of now, he is the back the Buccaneers are leaning on.

A common staple among backs in the top 10 is the propensity to have high-volume targets and catch passes. Six of the top 12 backs have 10 receptions or more. There are 14 running backs with 10+ receptions. Eight of those are outside of the top 12, and three are outside of the top 20.

Notable names not in the Top 15

• Joe Mixon, CIN #17 - Mixon has 180 yards rushing but only one touchdown. The Bengals offense has started slow, which has trickled down to Mixon's output. Expect Mixon to improve as the Bengals improve.
• Rhamondre Stevenson, NE #19. Stevenson is lower than expected after three games. Ezekiel Elliott has 28 carries to Stevenson's 46, so there is some carry-competition in New England. The Patriots have been in some close, tight games, which isn't a good recipe for Stevenson to benefit from targets. His greatest strength to the team is his receiving ability. When/if that ramps up, we should see more production from Stevenson.
• Saquon Barkley, NYG #20 - Barkley unfortunately suffered an ankle injury at the end of Week 2. In two games, he has not surpassed more than 63 yards rushing but he does have two scores. When he returns, he will be the top option for the Giants, which should yield top 12-15 production.
• Derrick Henry, TEN #21 - The 29-year-old Henry is starting to show some let-up in his game, and the Titans are filling his void with Tyjae Spears. Henry leads Spears's 51 carries to 15, but his 3.2 YPC compared to Spears' 5.5 is something to take note of.
• Josh Jacobs, LSV #25 - Jacobs has 108 yards rushing along with 10 receptions for 92 yards. He has not found the end zone yet, which is what is keeping him outside of the top 20. Jacobs leads the team with 5 carries, with the next closest (Zamir White) with only five. The volume is there. If the scoring comes, his ranking will climb higher.
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET #26 - Gibbs has shown impressive feats of athleticism in his opportunities this season, but he hasn't scored and his carry numbers are being shared with David Montgomery. In Week 3 without Montgomery (thigh), Gibbs collected 17 carries for 80 yards, which is a good sign of things to come, but he is a complementary piece in the Lions offense, with Montgomery handling the majority of the team's carries when healthy.
• Breece Hall, NYJ #46 - The production may come around for Hall eventually, but the Jets offense has been abysmal this season under Zach Wilson. Hall is working his way back from an ACL injury, aiding in his slow start. If the offense comes around and as Hall gets more comfortable on his repaired knee, we may see some of the flashes he showed us in limited action last season.
• Najee Harris, PIT #47 - The Steelers' running game has struggled, and Harris is being platooned with Jaylen Warren. Unless Harris turns it around, the committee approach and lack of carries will follow.

Who's on the rise? Who's on the decline?

Needle pointing up:

• Alvin Kamara, NO - Tony Jones has been a nice surprise for the Saints, Jamaal Williams (hamstring) has been out, and Kendre Miller is working his way into more touches. When Kamara returns from suspension in Week 4, he should be a big part of the Saints' offense, leading to decent fantasy production.
• Cam Akers, MIN - Akers will get a new start after being traded to Minnesota. He will have the opportunity to elevate the Vikings' ground game and could develop into a starting back for your lineup.
• Justice Hill, BAL - Hill is currently out with a moderate turf toe injury, but the season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins has allowed him to produce in the Ravens offense. Both Hill and Gus Edwards will handle rushing duties for Baltimore, but Hill has the better skills as a receiver. He likely won't be a high-volume back for the Ravens, but he does have the chance to be a versatile option capable of scoring decent fantasy points every week.
• Roschon Johnson, CHI - The Bears have struggled to gain traction on offense this year, but that also opens the door for a rookie with the potential to see more action. Johnson has flashed in limited looks this season, and it could increase if the Bears want to see what they have in the rookie. Ultimately, the offense needs to come alive, but perhaps Johnson can help them get there.

Needle pointing down

• Samaje Perine, DEN - Perine had a chance to stake his claim as a big piece of the Broncos offense while Javonte Williams is ramping up his game from a knee repair recovery. Unfortunately, the Broncos have struggled to find traction on offense, plus Williams has proven that he doesn't need as much ramp-up time as expected. Perine is not worth a start at this time, and the more Williams plays, the closer he'll be to returning to 100% form, thus making Perine a secondary option.
• Tank Bigsby, JAC - The Jaguars may elect to give Bigsby more carries and opportunities as the season wears on, but through three games, Travis Etienne has been the primary rushing threat, dominating carries 49 to 9.

WIDE RECEIVER

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What stands out?

• Puka Nacua is doing his best Cooper Kupp impersonation while the Rams top receiver recovers from a hamstring injury. Nacua was heavily targeted in Weeks 1 and 2. Things quieted down some in Week 3, but he has made quite the impression as a rookie in his first three games, trailing only Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen in receiving yards. The bottom line is that Matthew Stafford trusts him, and as long as he is producing, Nacua is worthy of starting in your lineup.
• The usual suspects of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams are among the top wide receivers, but making his move in his second year to #6 is Chris Olave. Olave has at least 6 receptions in each game this year, with two 100-yard efforts. He has yet to score, which is the only thing keeping him out of the top 5.
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell represent Houston with rankings at #11 and #12, respectively. C.J. Stroud has performed well in his first three career games and is bringing Collins and Dell with him. The Texans duo each have 15 receptions for at least 251 yards apiece. Dell has two touchdowns, and Collins has one.
• Tutu Atwell, LAR - The Rams receiving corps has not missed a beat with Cooper Kupp (hamstring) out of the lineup. Puka Nacua has been the top performer, but Tutu Atwell has produced as well, with 17 receptions for 246 yards and a touchdown. He has earned a spot in your lineup for now, and it could extend even after Kupp's return.
• Adam Thielen, CAR - The Panthers top receiver has 18 receptions in his last two games to go along with two scores. He looks to be the best option for Carolina and has earned a spot in your starting lineup as long as he stays healthy.
• Marvin Mims, DEN - Mims has only 7 receptions, but his yardage total of 195 is nothing short of impressive. He is developing into Russell Wilson's downfield threat and has earned some flex appeal. If he can gain some consistency week-to-week, he could turn into a mainstay in your lineup.

Needle Pointing Up

• Josh Palmer, LAC - You can also include Quentin Johnston in this equation. The season-ending ACL injury to Mike Williams opens the door for his vacated targets to be spread to other receivers. The team is easing Johnston into a larger role; in the meantime, Josh Palmer is the main beneficiary. Look for Palmer to see an uptick in production, with Johnston gaining more confidence each week.
• Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG - Robinson is recovering from a torn ACL and being eased back into action. Last week, he had 4 receptions on his first 11 snaps of the season. The Giants want to get him involved, which should happen sooner rather than later.
• DeAndre Hopkins, TEN - Hopkins is dealing with a semi-mild high-ankle sprain, but even a mild version of that injury is difficult to handle. Hopkins won't back away from a little pain and discomfort, and he is fighting through it while starting for the Titans. He should be back to form in the coming weeks, which should mean an uptick in production.

Needle pointing down

• Garrett Wilson, NYJ - Wilson is arguably the best receiver on the Jets, and he'll fight his way to get at least some numbers while the team decides what is best at the quarterback position. As long as Zach Wilson is under center, Garrett Wilson's numbers will struggle. With no clear answer, the struggle will continue, resulting in poor production week to week.
• Drake London, ATL - The Falcons' top receiver is Bijan Robinson with 14 receptions. The closest receiver is Kyle Pitts with nine. The closest wide receiver is London with eight. Eight catches in three games is not adequate for someone you want in your starting lineup. Unfortunately, this may continue for the rest of the season. London will have his moments, but the scores won't be plenty and consistency will be a challenge.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster. Remember the glory days of Smith-Schuster? Those are gone. He is a complementary piece in New England at best.
• DJ Moore, CHI - The Bears game plan for DJ Moore has been nothing short of disastrous. The problem isn't Moore, it's his quarterback who is struggling to make plays and read defenses. As long as Justin Fields is under center for the Bears, Moore will be an inconsistent receiver you can't trust week to week.
• Brandin Cooks, DAL - The only fantasy option in the Dallas receiving corps is CeeDee Lamb, and even he has his limitations. Dallas will not be in many games where they need Dak Prescott's arm to win. A negative game script is affecting the Cowboys passing offense, and Cooks is being squeezed out. He'll have his splash plays here and there, but consistency will be hard to come by.

TIGHT END

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What stands out?

There are only two players with 40+ fantasy points, and neither is Travis Kelce. Interestingly enough, last year at this time, there were also only two tight ends with 40+ fantasy points. The difference is there were ten with 30+ points compared to only five this year. Finding a consistent tight end has been a struggle. Only five tight ends have at least 10 catches with a touchdown. So far, 19 tight ends have scored at least once. That leaves 14 of those who have less than 10 receptions. This will have to even itself out, but for now, it's tough to have faith in the tight end position with only five producing every-week starting numbers.

Players I like moving forward

• Zach Ertz, ARI - Ertz has 20 targets, second on the team behind Marquise Brown. As long as the volume is there and Arizona continues to be a scrappy team, Ertz will have value week to week.
• Kylen Granson, IND - Granson has 14 targets, third on the team. The next closest tight end in targets is Drew Ogletree with four. He is starting to emerge as a player of interest in an offense that has the potential to be on the rise.
• Durham Smythe, MIA - Everyone else is performing well on the Dolphins. It's only a matter of time before Smythe has his big game. Interestingly enough, Smythe is tied with Jaylen Waddle for second on the team in targets (11). Waddle has missed some time, but that still shows he's involved in one of the best offenses in the league.
• Pat Freiermuth, PIT - Freiermuth suffered a rib injury in Week 1, and he's just now starting to get back to full form. The Steelers will start to funnel some targets his way once he's recovered. Keep the faith.

Players I'm shying away from

• Darren Waller, NYG - Maybe Waller needs some time to fully recover from his hamstring injury, but his injury also has a lingering effect that includes the nerves in his leg. He has a peculiar type of injury that may linger for the season. It's enough to be concerned.
• David Njoku, CLE - It's concerning that a top-10 tight end has only 11 targets in three games. If the target volume is not there, it will be difficult to rely on him week to week.

Go make some noise in Week 4.

Thank you for reading. I appreciate your support. Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on "X", formerly Twitter.

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