The Dynasty Investor: 2Q Update

Jay Stein's The Dynasty Investor: 2Q Update Jay Stein Published 11/10/2023

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

This article will use these principles to find value in dynasty fantasy football. As we cross over halfway through the season, this article will focus on updated Dynasty Investor cluster charts using expected points per game, the trades we've closed, and initiate new trade ideas.

Key Points Up Front

Cluster Update - 2023 Expected

We will now look at the fantasy landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players. Please take a look at the charts below. The update here is we are moving from projected 2023 PPG to expected 2023 PPG through week nine. The clusters are graphed with increasing expected 2023 PPG on the horizontal axis and decreasing age (youngest on top) on the vertical axis. The players are divided into clusters shown by the gray dashed line by PPGs and by age. Visually, these clusters are grouped by color. Also, the size of the bubble represents each player's KTC, so the bigger the bubble, the higher the KTC. Big shout out to @NFL_Billy_Jones for helping me put these together.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Closed Trades

We've had six favorable ratings changes since our last update. We downgraded A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, and Alvin Kamara from Buy to Hold. We upgraded Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, and Tutu Atwell from Sell to Hold. As a reminder, the Buy rating means we are actively in the market trying to buy a player, and we want to be overweight that player in our portfolio of teams. A Sell rating means we are actively trying to sell the player, and we want to underweight him in our portfolio of teams. And a Hold rating is just that, not trying to buy or sell and just wanting to be about market weight in our portfolio of teams. Hold-rated players can still have upside/downside or be fairly valued. So, let's take a quick look at these rating changes.

Downgraded A.J. Brown from Buy to Hold

We recommended buying Brown at a KTC of 6346 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC of 7700 on him. At the time of the downgrade, Brown's KTC was 7440, within 4% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 17% result or 1094 KTC added.

At the time of the buy recommendation, back in late October of 2022, the trade advice was to sell Ken Walker III to buy A.J. Brown, which I think now can be viewed as a clear win from a dynasty perspective. This is what we wrote about Brown in the FBG Dynasty Investor series in July: "A.J. Brown is a Dynasty Investor top pick. We added him to the buy list in early November of 2022. The thesis at the time was that he would be the guy that could cluster up to the Jefferson/Chase cluster, if not be the one wide receiver that could sort of bridge the gap between the Jefferson/Chase and the rest of the pack."

Downgrading DJ Moore from Buy to Hold

We recommended buying Moore at a KTC of 4228 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 5350. At the time of the downgrade, Moore's KTC was 5144, within 5% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 22% result or 916 KTC added.

A couple of the DJ Moore trades we've recommended over this series were to buy DJ Moore straight up for Dalvin Cook or Kyren Williams. If you could do something like that, one has to feel good about those trades.

Downgrading Alvin Kamara from Buy to Hold

We recommended buying Kamara at a KTC of 2989 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC of 3800 on him. At the time of the downgrade, Kamara's KTC was 3770, within 1% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 26% result, or 781 KTC was added.

At the time of the buy recommendation, back in June, the trade advice was to sell Dameon Pierce or Nick Chubb for Kamara + a 2nd. Also, we recommend you sell James Cook for Kamara plus a 3rd.

Upgrading Brock Purdy from Sell to Hold

We recommended selling Purdy at a KTC of 5174 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 4500. At the time of the upgrade, Purdy's KTC was 4636, within 3% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 10% result, or 538 KTC was added.

At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try to make one of these trades: Brock Purdy = Kyler Murray. Brock Purdy = Deshaun Watson + 3rd. Brock Purdy = Bryce Young. We're not sure if those trades are winners yet, but we see upside in Murray, Watson, and Young.

Upgrading Kyren Williams from Sell to Hold

We recommended selling Williams at a KTC of 4538 (purple circle) and put a target KTC on him of 3800. At the time of the upgrade, Williams' KTC was 3877, within 2% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 15% result, or 661 KTC was added.

At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try and do one of these trades: Kyren Williams = Kyle Pitts + 4th. Kyren Williams = DJ Moore. Kyren Williams = Zach Charbonnett + early 3rd. Kyren Williams + late 2nd = Jonathan Taylor. Those types of trades were a net win.

Upgrading Tutu Atwell from Sell to Hold

We recommended selling Atwell at a KTC of 3014 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 2450. At the time of the upgrade, Atwell's KTC was 2460, within 1% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 18% result, or 554 KTC was added.

At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try and make one of these trades: Tutu Atwell = 2nd. Tutu Atwell = Josh Downs. Tutu Atwell = Tank Bigsby. Tutu Atwell = Rondale Moore + 3rd. Tutu Atwell + 4th = Diontae Johnson. A few of those trades are highly beneficial, like Diontae Johnson, Josh Downs, and the 2nd.

Dynasty Investor Top picks

Here are our current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, we'll go through some of the new initiations in more detail.

Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.

Top Buys

Top Sells

Upgrade to Buy Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins is an excellent WR. He would be many team's WR1. But he happens to play opposite one of the best WRs in the game, Ja'Marr Chase. This often leads people to overlook or undervalue Higgins in Dynasty. We will do the opposite; we will highlight Higgins as a top pick and a guy you should be looking to Buy. His situation is uncertain over the long term, a watch item, but even with that uncertainty, Higgins is too cheap relative to his peers.

Today, we are upgrading Tee Higgins to Buy. His price target is ~5800 KTC, which is ~11.5% upside from current levels.

Trades:

Charting:

We are calling for a bounce from the minus one standard deviation to just above the three-year average KTC price for Higgins.

Upgrade to Buy Bryce Young

Things have yet to click for rookie Bryce Young this season. It seems that Young may have a poor supporting cast. But that's okay; situations change, and sometimes it takes time for everything to click. Fellow rookie QBs C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have had a few more things go right for them, and they are being rewarded for that. Bryce Young is of a similar talent level to Stroud/Richardson, and when/if he gets it together, he could be valued similarly.

Today, we are upgrading Bryce Young to Buy. His price target is ~5700 KTC, which is ~18.5% upside from current levels.

Trades:

Charting:

We are off the lows and bouncing a little; we hope that trend continues and he works his way into the mid to high 5000s KTC.

Upgrade to Buy Kendre Miller

Kendre Miller is a long-term buy. Miller was the Saints' early third-round pick in this year's NFL draft and has gotten minimal work behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams this season. At 5-foot-11 and 220 pounds, Miller is a perfect complement to Alvin Kamara and could manage a three-down workload if the running back situation changed (via injuries, free agency, or trades). We see Miller in the same range as Zach Charbonnet, but he trades for ~700 KTC less.

Today, we are upgrading Kendre Miller to Buy. His price target is ~3400 KTC, which is ~19% upside from current levels.

Trades:

Charting:

We hope he bounces closer to his plus-one standard deviation line around 3500.

Downgrade to Sell Will Levis

We want to take the spike up in price to pivot somewhere else, particularly trying to tier up. We see Levis in the Sam Howell cluster and a similar range of outcomes. Levis now trades above Howell in KTC, and Howell is outperforming from an expected PPG perspective.

Today, we are downgrading Will Levis to Sell. His price target is ~3850 KTC, which is ~18% downside from current levels.

Trades:

Charting:

We are calling for the spike to come back down below 4000 KTC in between the average and the plus-one standard deviation lines.

Downgrade to Sell (AGE): Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, Adam Thielen, & Travis Kelce

The age downgrades primarily stem from the mid-year cluster charts above, and we are saying now's the time to move on from those older (outlier) players. These guys pop off the chart (in the wrong way) regarding age. Our target price for the downgrades are Derrick Henry 3000 KTC, Raheem Mostert 2500 KTC, Adam Thielen 2300 KTC, and Travis Kelce 4700 KTC. We expect little pushback from anybody on these downgrades except for Kelce. Kelce has been a positional and team differentiator for years. And yes, I'm aware many fantasy analysts have tried to make a call on Kelce and failed year after year. But we are making just that call. Next year, we think Kelce will trade at a lower KTC price than he has this year. We're leaving room for him to come back and dominate again next year. We're just saying that each year, his KTC price, trade value, and appeal will lessen, so let's try and take advantage of the Kelce mania now.

Trades:

Track Record

The total KTC added through The Dynasty Investor process is now up to 27,746 KTC.

PlayerAdviceDate AddedInitial KTCTarget KTCDate Closedclosed KTCPerformance (%)Value Added
Tyreek Hill SELL 2/10/22 5962 5045 5/30/22 5054 -15 908
Javonte Williams SELL 2/25/22 6448 5434 6/13/22 6185 -4 263
Cooper Kupp BUY 2/10/22 6166 7209 6/13/22 6031 -2 -135
Derrick Henry BUY 2/25/22 4882 7287 6/13/22 4716 -3 -166
Marquise Brown BUY 2/10/22 3840 5164 6/30/22 4572 19 732
Austin Ekeler BUY 2/25/22 5513 6481 6/30/22 5175 -6 -338
Kyler Murray BUY 3/16/22 7723 8907 6/30/22 7564 -2 -159
Kirk Cousins BUY 3/16/22 4214 4780 6/30/22 4019 -5 -195
Rob Gronkowski BUY 5/22/22 1234 3552 6/30/22 576 -53 -658
Terry McLaurin SELL 2/10/22 4958 3502 6/30/22 4760 -4 198
CeeDee Lamb SELL 2/10/22 6037 5312 6/30/22 6392 6 -355
Dalvin Cook SELL 2/25/22 5184 4518 6/30/22 4957 -4 227
Mac Jones SELL 3/16/22 4955 4471 6/30/22 4683 -5 272
Trey Lance BUY 7/1/22 5755 6350 8/18/22 6279 9 524
Wan'Dale Robinson BUY 7/1/22 2512 2825 8/18/22 2840 13 328
Dawson Knox SELL 7/1/22 3117 2775 9/2/22 2849 -9 268
Rashaad Penny BUY 7/1/22 2668 3000 9/8/22 2880 8 212
Derek Carr SELL 3/19/22 4943 4150 9/8/22 4478 -9 465
Joe Burrow SELL 7/1/22 8199 6625 9/8/22 7546 -8 653
T.J. Hockenson SELL 7/1/22 4719 4025 9/8/22 4201 -11 518
James Cook SELL 7/1/22 3636 3150 9/14/22 3175 -13 461
Saquon Barkley BUY 9/11/22 5172 6100 9/16/22 6004 16 832
Amon-Ra St. Brown BUY 7/1/22 4175 5200 9/19/22 5120 23 945
Michael Gallup SELL 7/1/22 3083 2525 9/19/22 2616 -15 467
Christian Kirk BUY 7/1/22 3213 4325 9/19/22 4231 32 1018
Lamar Jackson BUY 3/16/22 7741 8825 9/22/22 8594 11 853
Deebo Samuel SELL 7/1/22 5570 4725 9/22/22 5537 -1 33
Joe Mixon SELL 7/1/22 5393 4700 9/27/22 4993 -7 400
Mac Jones SELL 9/11/22 4170 3500 10/3/22 3666 -12 504
Justin Herbert SELL 9/11/22 9949 8300 10/6/22 8890 -11 1059
Leonard Fournette BUY 2/25/22 3033 4700 10/13/22 4300 42 1267
James Robinson SELL 9/27/22 4340 3800 10/13/22 3834 -12 506
Wan'Dale Robinson BUY 9/27/22 2539 3250 10/20/22 3201 26 662
AJ Dillon SELL 2/25/22 4229 3600 10/30/22 3825 -10 404
Justin Fields BUY 7/1/22 4992 6000 11/10/22 6069 22 1077
Khalil Herbert SELL 11/8/22 3890 3400 11/19/22 3394 -13 496
Amon-Ra St. Brown BUY 11/8/22 5236 6200 12/9/22 6146 17 910
Fields/Lance PAIR 3/16/22 -535 12/9/22 1868 449 2403
Gabe Davis SELL 9/11/22 4520 3500 12/19/22 3676 -19 844
Tom Brady BUY 7/1/22 3359 2550 12/19/22 2182 -35 -1177
James Conner BUY 7/1/22 3590 3500 12/19/22 3048 -15 -542
Hunter Henry BUY 7/1/22 2010 2000 12/19/22 1461 -27 -549
Brevin Jordan BUY 5/22/22 1554 2125 12/19/22 1151 -26 -403
Nick Chubb SELL 7/1/22 4806 4800 12/19/22 4923 2 -117
Pat Freiermuth SELL 11/8/22 3892 3450 12/19/22 3942 1 -50
Dalvin Cook SELL 12/19/22 4213 3550 1/30/23 3618 -14 595
Ken Walker III SELL 11/8/22 6780 5150 5/1/23 5241 -23 1539
Dawson Knox SELL 11/8/22 2624 2300 5/1/23 2214 -16 410
Brandon Aiyuk BUY 10/18/22 3956 5000 9/11/23 5073 28 1117
Joe Burrow SELL 4/28/23 9195 7700 9/19/23 8168 -11 1027
Dameon Pierce SELL 10/11/22 4839 3600 9/20/23 3786 -22 1053
Kenny Pickett SELL 11/1/22 4259 3600 9/21/23 3692 -13 567
Jonathan Mingo SELL 7/3/23 3225 2800 9/26/23 2878 -11 347
D'Andre Swift BUY 6/1/23 3980 4800 10/2/23 4662 17 682
DJ Moore BUY 10/4/22 4228 5350 10/10/23 5144 22 916
Alvin Kamara BUY 6/1/23 2989 3800 10/12/23 3770 26 781
A.J. Brown BUY 10/31/22 6346 7700 10/25/23 7440 17 1094
Tutu Atwell SELL 10/1/23 3014 2450 10/28/23 2460 -18 554
Kyren Williams SELL 10/5/23 4538 3800 10/31/23 3877 -15 661
Brock Purdy SELL 10/5/23 5174 4500 11/4/23 4636 -10 538

Total KTC Value Added = 27,746


Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the P/E ratio, please follow me on Twitter @_jasonstein and let me know your questions and how I can help.

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Tags:
Analysis Dynasty Brandon Aiyuk Tutu Atwell Saquon Barkley David Bell Tank Bigsby Tom Brady A.J. Brown Marquise Brown Treylon Burks Joe Burrow Derek Carr Zach Charbonnet Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb James Conner Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook James Cook Kirk Cousins Gabe Davis AJ Dillon Josh Downs Greg Dulcich Austin Ekeler Noah Fant Justin Fields Leonard Fournette Pat Freiermuth Michael Gallup Rob Gronkowski Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Justin Herbert Khalil Herbert Tee Higgins Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Sam Howell Lamar Jackson Diontae Johnson Mac Jones Brevin Jordan Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Christian Kirk Dawson Knox Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Trey Lance Will Levis Terry McLaurin Kendre Miller Jonathan Mingo Joe Mixon DJ Moore Rondale Moore Raheem Mostert Kyler Murray Rashaad Penny Kenny Pickett Dameon Pierce Kyle Pitts Brock Purdy Anthony Richardson James Robinson Wan'Dale Robinson Deebo Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster Amon-Ra St. Brown C.J. Stroud D'Andre Swift Jonathan Taylor Adam Thielen Ken Walker III Deshaun Watson Jamaal Williams Javonte Williams Kyren Williams Bryce Young
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