Your Draft Day Game Plan

Photo: USA Today Sports

"Have a plan. Follow the plan, and you'll be surprised how successful you can be. Most people don't have a plan. That's why it's easy to beat most folks." – Paul "Bear" Bryant, football coach, University of Alabama's Crimson Tide.

We are on the verge of the prime of fantasy football draft season, a heady time when we are thinking about how the draft will unfold, who we are going to target, and how we are going to make our championship team come together in real-time pitted against a group of live minds. Preparation is important, but never to the point of rigidity. There will be unexpected picks ahead of you that cause a player you never considered to fall to your pick. You will see key players in your draft plan sniped a pick or two before you are on the clock. You need to be prepared, but you also have to be flexible. The best way to do that is to understand the alternatives for filling each starting slot on your team. When you make a pick, you are affecting the decision matrix for your later picks. Sometimes the answer isn't who you like better among your early targets when you are on the clock in the early rounds but who you like better later at the positions you are neglecting when you make a pick. If you feel comfortable about later options, then it's easy to kick a position down the road a few rounds. If you are staring at your last viable option to fill a starting spot, it's probably better to avoid the pain of figuring out what to do later.

First, as always, know your scoring and lineups. If you only start two wide receivers and running backs with no flex positions, then tight end and quarterback become more important. If you can start seven WR/RB, then quarterback and tight end are less important. Know which players/positions are helped and hurt by whether your league is non-PPR, 0.5 PPR, PPR, or tight end premium (1.5 PPR for tight ends). Know which quarterbacks are helped and hurt by bonuses for long scores or 300-yard games, and whether your league gives more than 4 points for a passing score or 1 point for each 25 passing yards. Look at the average points per game at each position sorted in descending order and note which positions have the smallest and largest spans between #1 and the last starter based on league size times starting requirements to know where getting an elite option is most important (VBD drafting!) You get the point. Know the landscape before you get dropped in to conquer it.

Next, create a list of players that are your guys. Using ADP, you can have a reasonable expectation of who will be there in which rounds and you can start to piece together a plan that will give your lineup balance and upside and create possibilities for improvement on your bench. You should also have clarity on which players you value so much less than the hive mind that you can just cross them off of your list. Understand the if/then logic of your choices and how they ripple through the later rounds. Then clear your mind, get in the moment, and draft!

As always, fantasy football is a diversion, an escape where we get to call the shots. Do it your way and enjoy the peace of mind that comes with getting lost in a puzzle and forgetting the pressures of everyday life.

Cliff's Notes

Overall: There will be multiple right answers at every position, and the right answers will change as the season unfolds. Have clarity on which players you like at each position in each section of your draft so you can piece together a roster of players you want, no matter how your opponents draft.

QB: The top three quarterbacks were a big enough advantage in 2022 to push them up draft boards into the third round and earlier and set the bar for elite quarterback scoring higher than ever. Try to get a quarterback outside of the top three with a chance of joining them or a quarterback who can stay within shouting distance at a discount.

RB: Running backs have been pushed down the board. Whether it's RB1, RB10, or RB20, options at running back are available later than usual, so you can break ties against running back and get viable options later than you're used to. Most of the running backs available in the late 3rd/4th round aren't that different than some that are often available in 7th.

WR: You'll pay a premium for the top 10 wide receivers, which will all likely be gone by the mid-second round. The third-sixth round is a vast plateau of various risk/reward combinations, and you may find you'll like the 5th/6th round options almost as much as the 3rd/4th round options. As usual, you should have a healthy list of late-round darts to throw at the position.

TE: Travis Kelce's ADP reflects the gap he opened up between himself and the pack at the position, but Mark Andrews should be much closer to him if he can stay healthy and he comes with a round-plus discount. There are options available in the 4th-7th round who can be close enough to Kelce/Andrews to be the best value pick at the position, but the landscape is barren once you get outside of the Top 10.

K: Take one with your last pick that's established in a good offense.

DEF: Take one with your next-to-last pick that has a good Week 1 matchup.

Quarterback

Again, knowing your scoring system is key here. In leagues with distance touchdown and 300+ yard game bonuses, more than four points per pass touchdown, or efficiency scoring that takes points away for incompletions and awards points for completions, players like Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have more value, allowing you to wait longer if you like going late at quarterback. In more typical leagues with four-point pass touchdowns and a point per 25 passing yards, the quarterbacks with a running dimension remain king.

I get it; late-round quarterback is attractive because you can get 18-20 points per game off of the waiver wire. That was a more compelling argument when the top quarterbacks were in the 24-25 point-per-game range. Enter quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes II, who can score 30 points a game on average in typical scoring systems at their peaks, and the game has changed. A 10-point per-game advantage is the largest that any player at any position will give you over replacement value. The object of fantasy football is to score more points than your opponent, and it sure seems like getting an elite fantasy quarterback is the shortest line between A and B to achieve that result. Who is the best target if you want an elite fantasy quarterback but don't want to pay the premium for Allen, Hurts, or Mahomes? The answer is one or more of Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Anthony Richardson.

Note: Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert deserve a mention with a lot of positive factors pointing toward fantasy improvement from 2022 levels, and targeting them at ADP as your QB1 could also be a winning plan.

Target: Lamar Jackson
Round: 4

Jackson is usually going off of the board in the round after the last of the Allen/Hurts/Mahomes trio, which isn't a big discount, but with a faster tempo, more aggressive passing game, and a much better wide receiver corps, Jackson could easily return to 2019 fantasy form and finish as THE QB1.

Target: Justin Fields
Round: 5

Fields will come at a 2-3 round discount from Allen/Hurts/Mahomes, and he only needs a small improvement in passing efficiency/production to join them. From Week 5 on, he scored about the same as Joe Burrow's year-long scoring average. The two are going in the same range of drafts, but Fields isn't sidelined for all of camp and the preseason like Burrow, and he has a lot more room to improve for fantasy, especially with the addition of DJ Moore.

Target: Anthony Richardson
Round: 8-9

Richardson comes with much more risk than Jackson and Fields because he's a rookie, but his head coach helped Justin Herbert hit as a rookie and unleashed Jalen Hurts as a runner, so like Fields last year, he can be a poor passer and still post strong QB1 numbers with ceiling weeks that match the elite trio. The risk is more than reflected in Richardson's price, and the reward is not reflected enough. It's reasonable to take Richardson even if you already have Jackson and Fields. Once you see Deshaun Watson go off of the board, it's time to take Richardson.

Even if we plan on taking one of Jackson, Fields, or Richardson, even if we are willing to take them a little ahead of ADP, sometimes the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Target: Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Geno Smith
Round: 10-11

Have no fear; the viable options outside of the top 10 quarterbacks are strong enough to rest easy if you have to rely on them. Jones offers a similar rushing upside to Josh Allen, and he should improve as a passer. He's a potential league winner in year two of an improved offense and should be your top target if you wait and Richardson gets sniped ahead of you (and drafting a Richardson/Jones combo is a great idea). Goff and Smith should also be in improved passing games, and they are starting from a low QB1 floor they established last year. Once two of Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins (who are all solid picks at ADP for teams that don't take a top-10 quarterback in their own right) are gone, it's time to target Jones with Smith and Goff as backup plans.

What if I wait and miss out on Jones, Smith, and Goff?

The chances are this happening are slim, so don't let it discourage you from slow-playing the position, but at that point, you are probably looking at Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers as your Week 1 starter (or perhaps Derek Carr) unless you have a feeling about someone like Kenny Pickett or Desmond Ridder (or maybe Sam Howell against the woeful Arizona defese). You'll want to take a shotgun approach at the position, selecting your veteran Week 1 starter, hopefully watching Kyler Murray fall to your next pick to build in second-half-of-the-season upside at the position, and then taking your favorite late-round youngster from a group that includes Pickett, Ridder, rookies Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, and Jordan Love. And keep Trey Lance on waiver-wire speed dial if anything happens to Purdy.

Do I need a QB2?

Yes, but only if it's an upside play like Richardson, Jones, or Murray. It accomplishes three things. First, it gives you injury insurance and bye-week coverage. Second, it denies one of your competitors who did not take a QB1 an option that could hit and allow them to get away with it. Third, if your late-round quarterback hits, you can trade your established commodity quarterback to help your team elsewhere.

A note for Superflex/2QB players

The top 9-10 quarterbacks fly off of the board in Superflex/2QB leagues. You should probably take your QB1 in the first or second round unless you want to chance Richardson falling to the third. If you have an early draft slot, it is almost imperative to take a quarterback first because the value dropoff from round 1 to round 2 at quarterback will be much steeper than RB/WR/TE, especially with the preponderance of quarterbacks going early, pushing RB/WR/TE options down the board. Typically in a Superflex/2QB draft, you can get RB/WR/TE a round or more later than their ADP in 1QB leagues. Alternatively, that makes taking an RB/WR/TE come with a penalty of taking them in the same round they usually go in if you take one in the first round. You can employ a strategy of waiting on your second quarterback and taking RB/WR/TE as long as you can until you feel forced to take your QB2 because the supply is drying up. Options like Pickett, Ridder, etc. will be available after your top 50 or so RB/WR/TE are gone, so you won't be assessed as big an opportunity cost when you take them as you would if you take an early QB2. Going quarterback in two of your first 3-4 picks can still work out and could be a checkmate if you get Richardson in the third or Jones in the fourth, and they hit. But you have to be almost flawless on your early RB/WR/TE picks if you don't take your QB1 early.

Your Game Plan at Running Back

Your RB1 and You

With running backs falling further than ever, you might be tempted to go Upside Down/Do the Opposite/Zero RB, but that trend in drafts means fantasy players are paying less for their early RB1 option, and folks that wait as long as possible to get their RB1 are banking less of an advantage than they have in the past. You can split the difference and go with a Hero RB strategy, wherein you take your RB1 early and then get your RB2 candidates at the 2023 running back discount.

Who should be your Hero RB and when should you take them?