Chasing the Perfect Salary Cap Draft

Succeeding in a salary cap draft takes more preparation than a normal serpentine draft. You need to be able to approximate what the prices will look like, figure out your own strategy for attacking the draft, divide up your cap dollars among the positions according to their importance, and then map out what you think a blueprint for success looks like.

For this blueprint, we will assume the following conditions:

• 12 Team League
• $200 salary cap
• Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
• Each roster will have 16 players
• PPR Scoring
• Normal redraft setting where teams set their lineups every week and can add and drop players from the waiver wire

In a salary cap draft, it is not as simple as showing up and trying to buy cheap players. Oftentimes cheaper players are priced that way for a reason, and other times those players can be good values but not provide the punch and upside you want your team to have. To figure out how to find value and also find top players, you'll have to use your blueprint to keep you on course. Here is how to do that.

Player Values

Salary cap drafts have come far enough that you don't need to reinvent the wheel to come up with values for all the players. The easiest way to approach your values is to use the Footballguys Salary Cap Values. It is also not a bad idea to find different sets of player dollar values on the internet to give you a proper sampling of what the market is doing to help you dial in what your own values should be.

At a minimum, you should come up with tier breaks at every position and make sure the prices reflect the drops in value. For example, after the second running back (Christian McCaffrey) is off the board, there is a tier break before RB3, Bijan Robinson. There is a corresponding drop of $18 in value from McCaffrey to Robinson on the Footballguys Salary Cap Value page. This is just an example, and those tier breaks could differ on your own sheet if you want to make your own values. But the main point here is critical: tiers are not just important in salary cap drafts; they are essential. So this is one of the more important steps in preparation for the draft.

One thing to remember is that if you aren't using the Footballguys values, it isn't necessary to be perfect when apportioning your own dollar values up and down your cheat sheet. It is more important to get a snapshot of how the community is seeing salary cap values in the days leading up to your draft. When you get in the draft, understand that the values you have are just a guideline. Player prices fluctuate from draft to draft based on when they are nominated, who is bidding, and what money is left in the room. Don't be too rigid following what the prices are supposed to be, or you will have an uneven draft. Instead, follow your pre-draft plan, and if a player you want fits your allotted salary for that slot, you will stay on track.

Allocating Your Cap Dollars

In recent years I have found it profitable to follow a strategy where I do the following:

• Roster one good running back and one nearly elite wide receiver
• A quarterback who is not bargain basement but won't command a top price - usually something in the $8-$12 range
• Several cheap tight ends that allow a chance to find a breakout player but don't command a large percentage of the salary cap
• Attack the wide receiver value from Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR7) down to Mike Evans (WR34) and land as many highly ranked players from this group as cheaply as possible
• Draft two to three rotational running backs that can serve as an RB2
• Spend almost nothing on Kicker and Team Defense

This year things are shifting a bit in salary cap draft rooms as wide receivers have become increasingly in demand. While this formula outlined here is still a good one, it is likely that more money needs to be pushed to the wide receiver spot this year to accomplish the same goal as in previous years. It is also a little bit easier to find a high-volume RB2 this year, and finding a relatively cheap one gives you the freedom to push more money to wide receiver.

Finding Value During the Draft

Before the draft, you should compare your values from your own cheatsheet or value sheet with the numbers you have allocated to the positions on your blueprint. This enables you to have a snapshot of what your team will look like should you land the perfect player for every spot. Drafting the perfect player means that you rostered the best possible player you could afford for that position while sticking to the strategy you envisioned ahead of time.

A good way to find value is to make sure to remember that you cannot let tiers get too scarce before you attack them. Nominating a player you want, like Tee Higgins, will have a higher probability of finding value if Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jaylen Waddle are still available.

You can also find value by paying attention to players who have not generated a lot of buzz from their camp performance or preseason game performance or who are coming back from playing through injury in 2022. There are plenty of players who are disrespected by fantasy drafters for some reason, and finding those players usually nets strong value in a salary cap draft. Najee Harris is an example of this for 2023 drafts.

Your 2023 Salary Cap Draft Blueprint

Based on these ideas, here is what a possible team could look like for your 16-man roster in a 12-team league. If you land a player for cheaper than you had allocated, then don't be afraid to overpay at another position, using that extra money to improve somewhere else. Value is only important insofar as it helps further your strategy. Don't get caught up trying to score a deal on every player. If you pay more than a player is worth but land an impact player within the framework of your strategy, it does not matter what the raw dollar value was. You can't take the money with you, so keep track of where you are relative to what you wanted to spend. Here is my favorite strategy and the team you can try and land from it. Continue reading below to find out how to execute it.

Starting Lineup

• QB1 ($12) - Trevor Lawrence
• RB1 ($36) - Tony Pollard or Nick Chubb
• RB2 ($23) - Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, or Najee Harris
• WR1 ($43) - Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, or Davante Adams
• WR2 ($24) - Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, or DK Metcalf
• WR3 ($16) - Deebo Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Tyler Lockett, or Christian Kirk
• TE1 ($7) - Evan Engram, David Njoku, or Pat Freiermuth
• K ($1) - Daniel Carlson, Justin Tucker, or Tyler Bass
• DEF ($1) - San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints

Bench

• RB3 ($12) - Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery, or Antonio Gibson
• RB4 ($6) - Samaje Perine or AJ Dillon
• RB5 ($2) - Khalil Herbert, Kenneth Gainwell, or Tank Bigsby
• WR4 ($11) - Jahan Dotson, Michael Thomas, Jordan Addison, or Brandin Cooks
• WR5 ($4) - Quentin Johnston or Rashod Bateman
• WR6 ($1) - Van Jefferson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, or Michael Gallup
• TE2 ($1) - Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, or Tyler Conklin

Early in the Draft

Don't forget there are often deals immediately when the draft starts. Pay attention to this possibility, and don't be afraid to act as soon as the draft gets underway. Managers have a tendency not to want to spend right away as they settle into the draft, so if you are in the first five nominations, you should try to push through a low Tier 1 player or a top Tier 2 level player at any position. Nominating a player like Davante Adams in the first few nominations could net a strong value.

If you don't find a deal immediately out of the gate, you should be biding your time and not doing much initially. You can't forfeit the chance to get top talent, so pay attention to how fast the elite players are drying up to figure out when to jump in. But generally, you want to watch the room and see how values will go before getting too involved. Land a couple of top-level guys, if at all possible, to set you up for the next phase of the draft.

Early to Middle Stages

You should come out of the early part of the draft with one or two elite or nearly elite players per your blueprint. The early-to-middle stages are for building the bulk of your team through value hunting. The players you are landing here, however, are still players that form the backbone of your fantasy team. It is in this zone you are chasing guys like your RB2 and your WR2 through WR4.

Stick to your blueprint so that you maintain the proper amount of flexibility later in the draft when caps start to get scarce around the room. This stage in the draft should give you a few more players at the right price. This is usually the right time to lay low with your own nominations by putting players up that you have no intention of rostering. This allows you to float through a couple of rounds while you stalk the deals. Do not try to force it at this stage. Just wait for value for the amount you have allotted in your blueprint, land your guy, and go back to looking for deals. Once again, balance the players left with how aggressive to be. You can't always afford to wait, but in this critical stage, you can't overpay, or you'll be set up to fail later in the draft.

Middle to Late Stages

You want to be done trolling for the big pieces you need at this point. You should have landed those by now, and your focus should now be on nominating players you want who finish your roster how you envisioned.

Remember that it is a mistake to think that teams without much money left are completely irrelevant. In this phase of the draft, you will often see teams overspending because they are desperate, using up their cap completely, or realizing they waited too long to act, and now the top players are gone. This is the time when you may see some true outlier prices (high and low) because people have their eyes on certain players they want, and their caps are getting low. They won't want to bid if it costs them the player they are waiting on. As long as you have been sticking to your blueprint, you'll have money to capitalize on those opportunities.

The Final Few Rounds

When the draft is winding down, there are a lot of teams who will either be done or only have $1 per player left to spend. You don't want to be one of those teams. Saving a bunch of money for the end of the draft isn't smart, but saving a few extra dollars so you can spend $2 instead of $1 for some of these players is a good habit to get into. It is in this zone that high-value handcuffs, or high-upside lottery tickets, are found.

Unless you are overly concerned for the stability of your team, you should stay away from low-upside players who might plod along to a WR4 or RB5 finish like Robert Woods or Ezekiel Elliott. This stage of the draft is for finishing your team with upside or handcuffs to take your team over the top should they hit.

Attacking Quarterbacks

In recent years there has been a value pocket below the top tier due to the prevalence of two types of drafters - those who love elite quarterbacks and those who wait as long as possible to pay as little as possible. Last year that pocket of players was a bust, unfortunately. Guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott were disappointing. But, part of the problem was that quarterback scoring overall was down, and only four guys managed 30+ touchdown passes. This has produced a renewed fervor to pay up for the top quarterbacks in one-quarterback leagues. But you don't have to be one of those paying up for the position. It's likely that the poor showing by the value pocket quarterbacks last year is a bit of an outlier. This year two guys fit the bill in this area of the draft sheet: Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson. Things aren't exactly rosy for Watson so far this summer, so Lawrence should be your plan. However, if you don't land Lawrence, then the weak vibes coming from Cleveland should allow you to land Watson cheap and then back him up with a player like Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, or Jared Goff for a few bucks to give you some insurance.

Landing Your Running Backs

This blueprint is not going to allow you to go for one of the top running backs. Your team will be much stronger if you resist that urge. Instead, look at Tony Pollard or Nick Chubb as your RB1. Sometimes you will find a deal on one of those, but don't be too worried if you don't. That is how it goes with running backs in salary cap drafts, and you should be prepared to pay market price (and sometimes above) to secure the top runners.

At the second running back spot, you can possibly land Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs, although that might be hard for $23. Should that not work out, you can pivot to Najee Harris as a nice volume play, as he looks like a lock for 300+ touches.

Later on in the draft, you want to try to find a guy who should get 200 touches like Kenneth Walker Jr. But that might not work so if you don't get Walker, focus on David Montgomery or Antonio Gibson as your RB3. Montgomery should be the goal line back in Detroit, and Gibson should soak up some targets from the departure of J.D. McKissic. From there, you can try to get two more guys that have complementary roles but who also have demonstrable upside should they find a bigger role. Those types of guys are Samaje Perine, AJ Dillon, Kenneth Gainwell, Khalil Herbert, and Tank Bigsby.

Wide Receiver Blueprint

The first thing to do is try to land a top-four wide receiver if you can. Cooper Kupp has been falling into the low $40s in some drafts, so grab him if that happens. But since that's unlikely, try to land Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, or Davante Adams. That should be easily achievable for the $43 allotted for your WR1.

At the WR2 spot, it's ideal to end up with Chris Olave or Tee Higgins. But if they are too expensive, fall back on DK Metcalf or get two guys from the next tier down to make up for missing the WR2 you wanted.

Don't try to force the issue at wide receiver in general. There are at least 20 receivers who have the potential to return WR2 numbers, so focus on landing the best ones you can in that price range. The fun part is that some of those guys can be impact players for your squad but in your WR3 spot. These guys include Jerry Jeudy, Tyler Lockett, Deebo Samuel, and Christian Kirk. If you miss your WR2 targets, then grab two from this group of four.

Go after your WR4 and WR5 by waiting on players like Jahan Dotson or Michael Thomas. Those guys are risky but have a lot of upside. Just remember, the sheer number of wide receivers means if you are patient, you will find deals that fit your blueprint. Your WR6 can be a $1 flyer that you don't care too much about because that is likely to be the player you cut first when it is time to make waiver wire pickups.

Tight End Thoughts

It is possible to draft a top tight end (Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews) and still have a good team, but it will hurt your bench depth. If you are a skilled manipulator of the waiver wire and your FAAB budget, then this may be a play you want to make.

However, this blueprint assumes that the money will be better spent on acquiring values and depth that can get you through a long season. It is unlikely you will roster one of the top two guys, and fairly unlikely you'll have a shot at T.J. Hockenson either. Concentrate instead on landing a tight end like Evan Engram or David Njoku, who can usually be landed for less than $10.

Tight end can be a volatile position, however, so taking another one, or even two more, is a profitable play in the long run. Cheap options like Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett can often be had for only a few bucks, so if you have to cut money somewhere, you can come off of Engram or Njoku and take two guys from the lower tiers to try and piece together starter-level production. A shotgun approach to tight end - casting a wide net - is a strong play in salary cap draft rooms if the roster limits allow.

Kicker and Team Defense Approach

Don't pay more than $1 for your kicker. Last year those who paid up for Evan McPherson, Tyler Bass, or Younghoe Koo learned this lesson. You could also easily find a kicker on the wire (like Brett Maher last year) if you didn't land a good one in your draft. Regardless, there are plenty of solid options that can be had for $1.

As for defense, some leagues award more points for defenses, and in those leagues, you may want to allocate an extra couple of dollars for the position. Otherwise, spending more than $1 on defense is not a good idea. Drafters generally agree with this thought in most rooms, so getting a top defense may not be as hard as you think. Target San Francisco if at all possible, but if not, then New Orleans is a good bet to make in a poor NFC South. The Saints open with seven strong defensive matchups in their first eight weeks, including three rookie quarterbacks and either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

Final Thoughts

• Pay attention to the tiers above anything else. If you need a player from a tier that is drying up, the best way to attack it is not to wait but to nominate from the tier before it is down to the last one or two guys. Overpaying for the last guy in the tier happens in every draft. Try not to be one of those who got caught waiting.
• Early in the draft, you want to define where your draft will go by nominating some players you want in tiers that are still full of talent. However, if bidding is fast and furious, you need to keep your targets in your pocket until people have calmed down and the prices come back to earth. The cardinal rule of drafting is that if prices are way too high, they will come back down. Judging whether or not you can wait is your job, one that can only be done by the drafter assessing the room during the draft.
• If you aren't going to bid on the elite running backs, sometimes you can gain an advantage by NOT nominating them early. Attacking other positions or lower-ranked running backs can sometimes get you a small discount while people hang back for the top guys still on the board. Footballguys staffer Maurile Tremblay said it best: If four managers are waiting on a $50 player, then you have tied up $200 of cap space by leaving him on the board. Once he is rostered, that number drops to $50 instead of $200. Let other managers nominate the top guys.
• Early in a draft, if you think there are some lower-ranked players you don't want to have on your team or who are getting a significant amount of preseason buzz, then don't hesitate to nominate them way earlier than normal. Oftentimes a player like Dalton Kincaid, who would be a $2-$5 player, will go for $7-$10 when caps are full and people are having fun throwing money around.
• Similarly, in an overly aggressive room, nominate the top kickers and let people pay $2-$4 for them. The same tactic can apply to defenses as well.
• Always keep track of every team's cap situation as each player is rostered. When you are in a bidding war, or later in the draft, this information tells you how serious your opponent is for a player or if you can stick them because they are bidding you up.
• Use the Draft Dominator to keep track of all your cap situations. Learn to nominate players to target teams that have a lot of cap or players that will further your strategy.
• Stick to the blueprint you've conceived in the hours and hours of preparation leading up to the draft. This blueprint inspires calm and collected thoughts while you are in the middle of a bidding war during the draft.

Above all, remember that no strategy is foolproof, and there are limitless situations you can see in any salary cap draft. Sometimes your plans won't work, but if you are prepared, you know where to pivot. The name of the game is flexibility. Use your values as a guide. Use your blueprint as a guide. But never stick so dogmatically to either one that you lose sight of what you are trying to build. This blueprint should yield you a strong team with depth, upside, and the punch to win a title. Happy drafting!