Fantasy Overview, Week 4

• Russell Wilson, DEN - It is safe to say Wilson has been a big disappointment three games into the season as the Broncos quarterback of the future. How much of his lack of success can be attributed to him, and how much is due to the offensive structure of first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett? Despite Wilson's struggles, Denver is 2-1, so it's not all horrendous news. From a fantasy standpoint, Wilson has not produced, scoring only two touchdowns in three games. Perhaps his needle is so far down that it can only go up from here? Aside from last year's 18th place rank, he has not finished lower than 11th among fantasy quarterbacks in his 10-year career. There may be some growing pains in understanding the new offense. Are adjustments and better days ahead? We'll soon see. For those who invested in Wilson, hang in there.
• Aaron Rodgers, GB - In addition to Rodgers losing his top target, Davante Adams, to Las Vegas, he is also dealing with injuries in his wide receiver corps that has yet to establish an identity. From a fantasy perspective, he is not winning you games with his legs, so if touchdowns and yardage is down, so is he. Rodgers has not exceeded 260 yards passing in a game this season, and he doesn't have a true go-to receiver yet. Romeo Doubs leads the way for now, but the Packers' second-round pick, Christian Watson, is waiting in the wings. Rodgers finished fifth overall last year and won the league MVP Award. At this time last year, he was 23rd. Better days are likely ahead.

RUNNING BACK

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• A few things come to mind immediately - Saquon Barkley owning the top spot is great to see. The rule of thumb is to stay away from a running back coming off an ACL tear and try your luck again in the second year coming off the injury. Barkley has reassured us that he is indeed back.
• James Robinson at #3 is also a surprise. Another unwritten rule is to stay clear from running backs coming off of an Achilles tear, but Robinson is bucking that trend. It is said that a back's explosiveness is reduced coming off an Achilles tear, but Robinson was never an explosive back to begin with. So far, we've seen Jacksonville in positive game scripts, which have been great for Robinson and not so much for Travis Etienne Jr.. Perhaps when/if Jacksonville is trailing, in a negative game script, Etienne, not Robinson, will be the preferred back of choice in Jacksonville, but for now, it's Robinson.
• Two Lions running backs are roaming the top 10 with D'Andre Swift (5th) and Jamaal Williams (8th). Detroit has scored 95 points in three games and is starting to look like a tough out compared to years past. Swift is likely out until Week 7 with a shoulder injury, thus catapulting Williams into the primary running back role.
• Nick Chubb has 62 carries for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns in one of the best rushing offenses in the league. He doesn't appear to be letting up anytime soon.
• Cordarrelle Patterson is bulldozing his way through defenses at 6.2 yards per carry with two touchdowns. His receiving prowess hasn't been center-stage, only 4 receptions for 28 yards, but he is the Falcons' top back for the foreseeable future.
• Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey have yet to have that signature game, but they are keeping pace with the top tier. One big game could put them right back on the map in the top 5. The same goes for Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry.

• Breece Hall, NYJ - Hall is starting to inch his way into the lead role with the Jets. He is the preferred receiving threat out of the backfield with a 14% team target share compared to Michael Carter's 11%. It's only a matter of time before Hall has a big game and takes over the lead running back role because he's too good to leave grounded.
  
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - Stevenson is starting to see more snaps and touches than Damien Harris in the Patriots offense. He is a more refined receiver than Harris and has shown more success when his number is called. The Patriots offense took a hit with the loss of Mac Jones (ankle) for multiple games. Can Brian Hoyer keep it afloat? That answer may determine just how effective the ground game will be in the coming weeks.
  
  
• Jeff Wilson Jr., SF - With Elijah Mitchell (knee) grounded for at least another 6-8 weeks, Wilson has taken over as the lead back for the 49ers. He has at least two receptions in each game so far and is on the cusp of hitting that 100-yard rushing barrier rushing for 84 and 75 yards, respectively, in the last two games. Wilson, known as a strong goal-line back, has yet to score. Don't be surprised to see him crack that code in the coming weeks. Jordan Mason is a talented younger back waiting in the wings for his chance to shine, but for now, it's Wilson who is more experienced in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and that's a big reason why we should continue to see his name called.
  
  
• James Cook, BUF - The Bills are starting to unleash their top drafted running back little by little. He is known as a strong receiving back with the characteristics to also make a splash as a rusher. It's only a matter of time before he becomes a fixture in the offense. He is an excellent pre-emptive waiver add if available in your league. Selling high on Devin Singletary may not be a bad idea at this time before Cook earns his way into an increased role.

Needle pointing down

• Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR - The Rams want to get Cam Akers more involved and build his confidence. We saw that front and center last week against the Cardinals. This means we'll see less of Henderson if Week 3's rushing market share of 60% is an indication of future use for Akers.
  
  
• Chase Edmonds, MIA - Yes, Edmonds scored two touchdowns last week, but we are starting to see more of Raheem Mostert in the Dolphins plans. Moster has topped Edmonds in rushing market share in each of the last two games. A big play from Mostert might make him the preferred back in the offense. A changing of the guard might be in the cards.

WIDE RECEIVER

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• Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up where he left off last season and is now the top target on a Lions team scoring over 30 points per game. Ride the wave.
• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are 1a and 1b in the Dolphins' high pass volume offense. It looks like this offense can sustain two top 15 receivers, if not the top 10.
• Curtis Samuel was left for dead after a nagging groin injury, and re-injury sabotaged his 2021 season. He is back better than ever, leading the Commanders in targets and receptions in addition to usage as a rusher.
• Christian Kirk is the top beneficiary of Trevor Lawrence's rise to stardom, and the Jaguars climb up the ranks. He and Zay Jones have been instrumental in the early success of Jacksonville. It doesn't look like things will change anytime soon.
• Amari Cooper was pegged to be the top target for the Browns offense, and he's doing just that. The big surprise may be that Jacoby Brissett is feeding him the ball. If he can have success with Brissett, what can we expect when Deshaun Watson returns?
• A.J. Brown is picking up where he left off, if not even more so than what he accomplished in Tennessee. Jalen Hurts' ascension as a passer is making Brown a top target in the Eagles' high-flying offense. DeVonta Smith is also a recipient of Hurts' success.
• Drake London and Garrett Wilson are showing that rookie wide receivers are worth the gamble. Both appear to be fixtures in their respective offenses with no letdown in sight.
• Let's not forget about Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp, but their place in the top 3 is not exactly a surprise. Both are showing that 2021 was not a fluke season.

• Chris Olave, NO - Olave is another rookie who is answering the bell to the tune of 17 catches for 268 yards. With Michael Thomas dealing with a toe injury and Jarvis Landry feeling the effects of an ankle sprain, Olave has earned the role as the top receiver in the Saints offense. He has yet to find the end zone, which is why his rank is currently only 21st. It's only a matter of time before he takes flight.
  
  
• Zay Jones, JAC - Christian Kirk may be getting all of the accolades in the Jacksonville offense but Jones is not far behind. He is the 1b to Kirk's 1a. Jones has a 22% team target share compared to Kirk's 25%. Jones leads the team with 19 receptions, not Kirk (18). Don't look past Jones as someone who can make a difference in your lineup. His time for recognition is around the corner.
  
  
• Romeo Doubs, GB - The Packers and Aaron Rodgers has yet to find their true go-to wide receiver in the offense, but right now the closest recipient is Doubs. In Week 3, he had an eyebrow-raising 8 receptions for 73 yards and a score. He leads the team with 16 targets and his 17% team target share is the best on the team. His involvement could increase if Rodgers continues to be pleased with how he is performing in the offense.
  
  
• Mack Hollins, LSV - Hollins is a big wide receiver who should see plenty of snaps on the outside opposite Davante Adams. Even when Hunter Renfrow returns, Hollins has shown that he can be a reliable option in the Raiders offense. Hollins accumulated 158 yards on 8 receptions in Week 3, including a 24% team target share. He doesn't appear to be a flash in the pan.

Needle pointing down

• Hunter Renfrow, LSV - When Josh McDaniels came to Las Vegas, many people thought that Renfrow would occupy a role similar to what Julian Edelman had in the Patriots offense. Renfrow is coming off a career-best season that saw him nearly eclipse 100 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 touchdowns. A concussion has slowed his usage so far this season, but Davante Adams' presence has put a damper on Renfrow as an often-utilized weapon. The Raiders may unleash Renfrow and his impressive route-running skills, but as of now, he is not seeing the volume that he saw last season.
• Allen Robinson II, LAR - The Rams were thought to be the answer for Robinson, who has seen his luster lose its shine over the last two years. So far, Robinson has been an afterthought with just a 13% team target share. He has only 7 receptions for 88 yards and one touchdown. Things could turn around for Robinson, but right now, he is looking more like a bust than a boom.

TIGHT END

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What stands out?

Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce lead the way as the two top tight ends. Fourteen fantasy points separate Kelce from #3 surprise addition, Tyler Conklin. Conklin has been a key piece to the Jets offense each game this season, going from 4 to 6 to 8 receptions in their three games. He's getting better every week and is someone who can be inserted into your lineup until he proves otherwise. Zach Ertz #4 is also a mild surprise. He has 16 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown in the Cardinals offense. His 18% team target share is second only to Marquise Brown (24%).

Players I like moving forward

• David Njoku, CLE - He is second on the team in targets behind Amari Cooper and he showed last week that he can be a reliable option for Jacoby Brissett.
• Pat Freiermuth, PIT - Freiermuth's 20% team target share is second to only Diontae Johnson (32%). Freiermuth is a favorite target in the red zone and should continue to see an increase in targets, especially around the goal line. That translated to 7 touchdowns in a little over half a season in 2021. He is one of the better young tight ends in the league. If the Steelers iron out their quarterback room, we could see him rise into the top 5.

Players I'm shying away from

• Albert Okwuebugnam, DEN - The Denver offense, in general, has struggled to take flight, and Okwuebugnam has seen only 6 receptions in the first three games. Better days may be ahead but it doesn't look like he will be a fixture in the offense anytime soon.
• Hunter Henry, NE - Henry caught 10 touchdowns last year but has a mere three catches for 28 yards in three games - and now his starting quarterback is out for multiple games. Maybe Brian Hoyer can help shine a light for Henry, but right now, it's looking like he may be a bust in 2022.