Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 3

Week 2 adds data points. These points can confirm Week 1 reveals, like the Jaguars' running back split, or show production from Week 1 was simply a game script item, like Isaih Pacheco in Kansas City. But fantasy managers now have two results, and a zero in the win column can start to raise questions. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement to monitor while answering a question you may face in your league.

Quarterbacks

Jordan McNamara

Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia has answered a vital offseason question as they've leaned heavily on the pass after investing in A.J. Brown. Hurts has taken a significant step as a passer thus far in the season, while the offense has leaned away from his designed run game. Hurts is in the conversation for the MVP, which is justified by his play.

Jared Goff - Goff has played in one of the higher-scoring offenses in the league through two weeks. They can consistently move the ball and should be in contention in the NFC. This start should allow Goff to play his way into another year at the helm of this offense.

Kevin Coleman

Jalen Hurts - Many analysts were worried about Jalen Hurts's dynasty value coming into the season. There were questions surrounding the young quarterback about whether or not he was the long-term answer for them at the quarterback position. Through two games, those concerns seem to be incorrect. Against the Vikings, Monday night, Hurts completed 26 of his 31 passes for 333 yards and a touchdown while also adding fifty-seven yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. It was simply one of the best games of his career and had his dynasty value skyrocketing. He sits at QB3 overall this season, and if he can continue his run of good play, we could be looking at a quarterback who should be ranked in the top five for the foreseeable future.

Trey Lance - Lance's dynasty stock took a massive blow this past week. The young quarterback underwent surgery Monday to repair a fibula fracture and ligament disruption. This injury is about as worst case as it gets for Lance. The one thing Lance needed in his career was reps, and he no longer will get that this season. There's a chance that Jimmy Garoppolo will lead this team back to the playoffs, which will make Lance's dynasty value heading into the 2023 season even murkier. One would assume the 49ers will rally behind Lance after his recovery, but this front office has been frustrating for fantasy managers since the John Lynch era. As of now, we need to move Lance down in our dynasty ranks.

Christian Williams

Trey Lance - Unfortunately, injuries are a significant component of dynasty value, and Trey Lance just experienced one of the most detrimental injuries in recent memory. Lance got through less than two games before suffering a season-ending injury to his leg after playing a limited amount of football over the previous two years. While he will present the dual-threat ability that dynasty managers covet upon return, the odds that he has to compete for his starting job in 2023 have grown larger. The 49ers mortgaged their future to go up and select Lance, but his value now comes with more risk.

Tua Tagovailoa - Situation is essential for quarterbacks, and there aren't many situations better than the one brewing in Miami. The Dolphins equipped Tagovailoa with two top-tier receivers, and the offense's potential was displayed in Week 2 against the Ravens. Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns after a rocky start, settling in and challenging the deep third of the field. His deep ball, while still timed imperfectly, was precise. Through two weeks, he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and his dynasty value should reflect his growth.

Nick Whalen

Justin Fields - Now is the perfect time to buy Justin Fields because so much negative attention has been thrown his way. Chicago has played two of the top five defenses in the NFL to start the season. One of those games was in a monsoon of a rainstorm, and the other was on the road. The opponents get easier starting in Week 3 and the next ten games. Buy the dip on a young athletic QB who can make all the throws.

Trey Lance - The injury for Lance was devastating on many fronts. First of all, Lance is a raw player with only 22 starts at the quarterback position since High School, which is an average of 4.4 starts per year. He needed consistent starts and playing time to develop as a player. Next, will this injury alter how Trey Lance runs with the football? Will he slide more like Justin Fields to avoid hits? If so, it will limit his value as a runner. Also, will Kyle Shanahan change the offense to give Trey Lance fewer designed runs? I guess he'll run less, which was the most significant benefit to his value. I'd sell high while you can.

Carson Wentz - Players that have burned fantasy owners in the past leave a bad taste in their mouths. In the case of Carson Wentz, few people believe in him. This is good for you because fantasy football is about points, not feelings. Wentz is the 3rd highest-scoring QB in most formats this year in fantasy football. He has three very athletic receivers who create mismatch problems and an offense that allows him to throw the football deep. He is a cheap gamble at QB.

Jeff Bell

Jared Goff - Goff is a 27-year-old quarterback with a top-ten finish in 2018 and three consecutive top-20 seasons between 2019 and 2021. I misread this situation in the preseason, ranking Goff at 32. The consensus has him not long for the Lions' starting job. However, As he leads one of the most productive offenses in the NFL after leading the Rams to the Super Bowl, he sits with two realities. Quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones face make-or-break seasons, while Tom Brady leads an older generation who could walk out at any season. Either the Lions win enough games, and he becomes the defacto starter moving forward, or a league desperate for quarterback talent finds a starting opportunity. Given his age and production, Goff is a top-twenty dynasty quarterback. I am moving him up to 19.

Tom Brady - Before the season, I placed Brady at 21, a nod to his QB1 upside over short longevity. But the Buccaneers have experienced continual setbacks that leave him sitting with Breshad Perriman, Scotty Miller, and Russell Gage as his primary receiving options in Week 3. Brady looks along for the ride in what is his final season. The team is leading on Leonard Fournette and their defense to sit at 2-0. Many greats have utilized this formula in their last season, and no one runs from age forever. Knowing it is his final season and currently not getting top-24 production, he falls to 32. The bottom could be out soon if you are holding him in a Superflex league.

Running Backs

Kevin Coleman

Saquon Barkley - Barkley looks fully recovered from his ACL injury two years ago and should be rising in everyone's dynasty ranks. He is currently sitting as RB2 in PPR formats and is on his way to being a league-winning player this season, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game. Barkley's involvement in the passing game has been a welcome sight, and he has eleven targets in the first two weeks. If you pair that with an improved offensive scheme and offensive line Barkley is back in the mix to be a top-five dynasty running back.

Travis Etienne - Etienne may become one of fantasy's biggest flops this season. His off-season ADP and rankings reflected that James Robinson was coming off an Achilles tear and was thought to be limited to begin the year. Unfortunately for Etienne managers, James Robinson has been a top-10 running back this season, taking most of the touches. Robinson has thirty-seven touches through two games, while Etienne has just eighteen. Etienne is averaging just 8.4 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. Until we see Etienne get more involved in the passing game, we need to move him down our dynasty rankings.

Miles Sanders - Believe it or not, Sanders has been surprisingly efficient in the season's first two games. He's averaged 15 fantasy points per game in PPR formats and has thirty-five touches through two games. While Sanders's ceiling is capped with Jalen Hurts at quarterback due to his rushing upside, Sanders has proven to be a solid flex play or RB2, depending on the league format. Based on how low he was heading into the season, Sanders deserves a bump up in dynasty rankings.

Christian Williams

Derrick Henry - Henry is having the most inefficient year of his career in two weeks. His 3.1 yards per carry and just one touchdown are supplements to the straight line, power running style that lacks explosiveness in Henry's seventh year. Coming off a significant injury at age 28 and performing well is difficult; doing it with Henry's play style may prove impossible. Henry's slow start indicates that, even if it's not entirely here, the cliff's edge is on the horizon.

James Robinson - Even the most optimistic dynasty managers expected a slower start from James Robinson after his Achilles injury in 2021. His fast start and the total return of his burst and explosiveness have impressed, and his work in the red zone and at the goal line should give dynasty managers confidence. Robinson is one of the most talented runners in the NFL, and the threat of Travis Etienne seems much lesser through two weeks. If Robinson continues operating as the feature back, his dynasty value has increased significantly during the season's first two weeks.

David Montgomery - Many expected more of a committee approach in Chicago with Luke Getsy's arrival, but the volume has not been an issue for David Montgomery. He has at least 17 touches in the first two games and averaged over eight yards per carry in Chicago's loss to the Packers. While the Bears will throw more, Montgomery should see healthy volume as a receiver to offset the lower workload on the ground. Montgomery is a safe RB2 and, with the scarcity of safe players at the running back position, has seen a boost in value early in 2022.

Nick Whalen

Aaron Jones - When players perform on a national stage, it double counts for both good and bad games. For the sake of Jones, he was terrific against Chicago. Now is the time to cash in on him for dynasty. I always prefer to get out a year too early on a player, which Jones is 27 years old and turns 28 in December. The last time he played every game in a season was in 2019. The most critical piece is his 2023 contract counts for $20 million against the cap. The projected salary cap increase for next year will help the Packers. Still, they are already near that limit without signing free agents such as Elgton Jenkins, Allen Lazard, Adrian Amos, Robert Tonyan Jr, Yosh Nijman, etc. Cutting Jones would save $10 million and give the reigns to his backfield mate AJ Dillon. Selling high on Jones makes sense right now.

Rhamondre Stevenson/Travis Etienne/Breece Hall/Ken Walker - I grouped these young runners because they haven't met the expectations of their fantasy owners through two weeks, and they may have become frustrated. They may no longer believe in them, so you start knocking on their doors to see what it would cost to acquire them because things change quickly at the running back position in the NFL. I continually chase young, athletic, pass-catching who can be successful at the goal line and are productive as college running backs. All these players fit that mold, and their dynasty prices should be low.

Jeff Bell

DAndre Swift - Swift sits third in PPR points, averaging 21.6; that number falls below Jonathan Taylor's 22.0. In his second game, Swift accomplished that while playing through injury on limited touches. The Lions have built a strong, young offensive line and a defense that leaves them playing back-and-forth games. With Swift's pass-catching ability and Goff's preferred target areas, he is a sleeping giant at the position. In a dynasty community looking hard for who should be labeled RB2 overall, Swift is the perfect package to lock down that position. I am moving him up over the tier of Najee Harris and Javonte Williams.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - I was ready to write off Edwards-Helaire with the offseason hype around Isaih Pacheco, but Edwards-Helaire has seized control of the Chiefs' running back job, ranking fifth overall in PPR points. That pessimism and his uneasy performance in 2021, combined with his disappearance, made an RB3 range palatable, but this is another case I was wrong. If he can produce at that level in an explosive Chiefs offense, he is still just 23 years old. The production window is open much longer than even the aging elite tier of Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon. It still feels aggressive to place Edwards-Helaire over them, but I am moving him to 15, and he could leapfrog even higher if he continues.

A.J. Dillon - At the start of the season, Dillon sat as RB18 mainly due to his role in a timeshare with Aaron Jones. But Dillon produced 20 points in Week 1, showing that the ceiling is there even with Jones in the lineup. At 24 and with fresh legs, Dillon is potentially Jones out of the lineup away from superstar status. With the floors displayed by the veterans mentioned, I am moving Dillon up to RB13 and banking on an open production window that starts now.

Jordan McNamara

Cam Akers - There has been no running back more disappointing than Cam Akers through two weeks. He was a backup behind Darrell Henderson after being a top 20 dynasty running back during the offseason. Akers played more in Week 2 but is still more appropriately in the injury-away valuation of the running back position than the starter range of valuation.

James Robinson - Robinson's rebound from his Achilles injury can change the landscape of the running back position. Running backs have struggled to return from the injury, so Robinson's performance is encouraging. The presence of Travis Etienne will cloud Robinson's value, but he should get a boost to no worse than a high-end backup-type valuation.

Michael Carter - Carter was primarily an afterthought in the Jets offense after the team selected Breece Hall in April's second round of the draft. Instead, Carter has been in a committee with Hall for two weeks. At worst, Carter should be viewed as one of the best injury-away running backs in the league, with the ability to start based on matchups and usage patterns.

Question of the Week

What do you do with a "contender" off to a 0-2 start?

Christian Williams

Dynasty managers must remember that an 0-2 start is not a dagger. While the winless start can induce anxiety, the initial perception that the team is a contender indicates future success. Suppose the team has experienced unluckiness with injuries. In that case, strategic moves can keep it in contention while also creating leverage in the future, but practicing patience is often the most successful path forward. Dynasty is about building for many years, not just the current one, and drastic overreactions to a slow start can set a roster back years.

Nick Whalen

Dynasty managers must collect data after starting the season 0-2. Look at the overall points scored and potential points scored in your league. I will be concerned if your team is in the bottom three overall. If not, did you face above-average points against? Next, were your opponents likely the top 3 teams in the league? If so, easier matchups will be in your future. If not, you should again be concerned. Comb through your roster to see what's going on with your players: underachieving, injuries, faced formidable defenses, snap share decreased, targets, played in the monsoon game in Chicago, etc. Have an honest conversation with yourself after gathering all of this data. Can your team rebound? Or is it better to plan to play for next year? One thing that may give you hesitation is to know the owners in your league to see if they are or aren't willing to part with 2023 1st round picks, which might influence your decision.

Jeff Bell

How did you get to 0-2? Is this a case where injuries have knocked out players like Dak Prescott or Trey Lance in Superflex leagues, or have you lost Chris Godwin or Michael Pittman Jr from your roster? Have you scored as a top-five team both weeks but lost to higher scores? If the underlying number of points scored is ok and the team is healthy, it is simply a blip on that radar in an otherwise short season. But if injuries have taken their toll, it may be time to call it and pivot. The 2023 rookie class is loaded, and Footballguys will walk you through it in the coming months, but now that points-scoring season has arrived, teams are looking to add those edges. The first move is a strategy to help capture the value, which should be enacted, if not this week, and after next week's results. The complicating factor is the performance and narrative around older running backs. If your league is willing to take a player like Alvin Kamara or Derrick Henry at face value, it may be time to move off anyway. Do not panic, but be realistic about your position and capture available value.

Kevin Coleman

If you find yourself at 0-2 in your dynasty league and feel like you are a contender, the best piece of advice out there is to display patience. Too many managers need to make moves at this season stage because they seem to think their chances are slipping away. If you look at the fantasy leaderboards, there are a lot of players who have had outlier performances. History shows us that these performances are not sustainable. Be patient with your dynasty team and remain active on the waiver wire. Assuming your team has depth since it's a contender, you should be able to take advantage of the bye weeks starting in week six.

Wide Receiver

Nick Whalen

Jahan Dotson - He's better than you think he is on the football field. In my Film Talk article, I said, "Nickname him 7/11 because he's always open." Then Dotson when out and had another game of producing on limited targets. If you combine all of the other rookie WRs receiving touchdowns this season, they would only equal what Dotson has produced, and that's only on ten targets. Buy Dotson while you still can.

Deebo Samuel - The Trey Lance injury will allow more running and throwing opportunities to the rest of this offense. The biggest benefactor will be Deebo Samuel, who has already averaged six carries per game this season. Jimmy Garoppolo prefers to throw over the middle of the field, which favors George Kittle and Samuel. I'd expect more targets for Garoppolo's favorite target in 2021, and the carries should only increase for Samuel with Lance not running and the injury to Elijah Mitchell.

Courtland Sutton - The Broncos' sputtering offense has left fantasy owners frustrated. Being the top target, only 26 years old, signed to a long-term contract, and paired with a perennial top-tier QB is a recipe for fantasy greatness. Courtland Sutton has emerged as the favorite target of Russell Wilson, and that will only continue with Jerry Jeudy banged up.

Jeff Bell

Jaylen Waddle - Waddle is a player I have always been high on, but his performance in Week 2 gave me the nudge to move him from WR6 to WR3. Waddle brings youth, production, and explosive point-scoring ability to the position. In a position continually growing in importance, Waddle is the type of young building block all teams should seek.

Drake London - The first receiver in the draft immediately looks like he belongs on an NFL field. He was my WR15 before the season, and preseason that saw him miss time with a knee injury contributed to a mysterious package. But much like JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson, receivers with this capital produce shoot-up boards immediately. London was one of four players in NFL history to catch 13 balls through the first two weeks of their rookie season. I am aggressively moving him up my board to WR6.

Garrett Wilson - Much of the same logic for Drake applies to Wilson. A top-10 drafted talent must produce a monster game to shoot up boards. A 30-point PPR performance in Week 2 showed Wilson immediately possesses a high upside ceiling, and I have him as WR7.

Jordan McNamara

Amon-Ra St. Brown - St. Brown has become an elite receiver in the Detroit offense. He is being targeted on more than one-third of his routes, which is confirmation the end of last season was not a situational fluke. St. Brown deserves a conversation for a top-10 wide receiver in dynasty.

Noah Brown - Brown is a starting wide receiver in the Dallas offense without a clear number three wide receiver. He runs nearly all the routes and is a top-20 receiver through two weeks. He may regress some, but his usage indicates he is a lineup option in the future and one of the biggest risers in the league.

Michael Thomas - Thomas is back! After two years of injuries, Thomas has returned to fantasy usefulness. The New Orleans offense has Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to take some space out of the passing game, but a healthy Thomas can still be a difference-maker in fantasy formats.

Kevin Coleman

Drake London - One of the biggest risers among the rookie class this season has been Drake London. London's targets per route run sit at 31%, and he is the number one option for the Atlanta Falcons. He's averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game and has proven to be quarterback-proof on a Falcons team led by journeyman quarterback Marcus Mariota. The game script should dictate more passing volume for the Falcons this season, making London even more intriguing in all formats. If the Falcons improve their quarterback play this off-season, London could easily be a top-ten dynasty wide receiver after his rookie season.

Jahan Dotson - Sticking with this trend of rookie wide receivers, Jahan Dotson is another rookie who has proved something through the first two weeks of the season. He has seven receptions for 99 yards and three touchdowns through two games, averaging 18.0 fantasy points per game. Based on his early usage and his production on the field, Dotson has upside moving forward this season, and he could be a borderline WR2 must-start option in fantasy right now. Dotson looks like the perfect compliment to fellow wide receiver Terry Mclaurin.

Garrett Wilson - Wilson was a player I was already high on heading into the season despite concerns about his landing spot with the New York Jets. Before Week 1, he was my WR14 on the year, and he justified that ranking with his Week 2 performance against Cleveland. He had a team-high fourteen targets and turned that into eight receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns which saw him finish WR6 overall for the week. Wilson is a bonafide star and is the Jets' WR1, even with Elijah Moore on the roster. He should easily be a top-12 wide receiver for the foreseeable future in dynasty formats.

Christian Williams

Amon-Ra St. Brown - No player has done more for their dynasty value than Amon-Ra St. Brown. The second-year receiver built on the momentum he created late in the 2021 season, catching more than eight balls for the eighth straight game dating back to Week 13 of 2021. He is Jared Goff's favorite and most reliable target, translating to fantasy points. St. Brown's true test will come when Jameson Williams returns from injury, as he brings an entirely different skill set to the receiver room, but St. Brown looks like a top-twelve player at the position right now.

Rashod Bateman - Bateman is efficient. His snap percentage hasn't exceeded 66%, yet he has accumulated over 160 receiving yards in the first two weeks of the 2022 season. Despite having six catches, Bateman is averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game, with his playmaking ability on display against the Dolphins in Week 2. Bateman operates within a run-first, tight-end-centric offense, yet his dynasty value has increased through two weeks. If Bateman received a higher target share this season, dynasty managers could argue that he's a low-end WR1 in 12-team formats.

Curtis Samuel - Many dynasty managers are excited about rookie Jahan Dotson's future outlook, but Curtis Samuel has become the top target in Washington. His 20 targets are tied for 14th in the NFL through two weeks, and his efficiency with those targets has impressed. Samuel has rarely left the field, playing on 89% of snaps in Week 2 against Detroit, and his chemistry with Carson Wentz is notable. At just 26 years old and under contract for another year, albeit with a team-friendly out, Samuel looks like a viable fantasy asset once again. His health will keep his value low, and managers will remain constantly concerned, but his stock is up now.

Tight End

Jeff Bell

Pat Freiermuth - On age and talent alone, Freiermuth should threaten the top three dynasty tight end status. The only questions holding him back were how the Steelers would shake out targets between their talented receiver room. Freiermuth has answered those concerns through two games and ranks TE6 at 12.4 ppg. Addressing his usage concerns, Freiermuth raises to TE3 from TE6. Anyone playing dynasty would happily trade the two ppg difference between Freiermuth and Darren Waller at TE3, given the seven-year age difference between the two.

Dawson Knox - I was as bullish as possible on Knox entering the season, a nod to his relationship with Josh Allen, positioning in one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the team committing to him with a new contract. But through two games, Knox has backslid his involvement in the route portion of the passing game. His route participation dropped, and he is staying in more as an extra protector as Allen has attacked vertically, increasing his completed air yards per attempt to 7.8, improving a full yard over his career average. When defenses can not cover Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis down the field, there is little reason to peel back to Knox underneath.

Jordan McNamara

Noah Fant - Fant dropped sharply after his limited usage in the Seattle offense. The situation is tricky because the passing volume and his route participation are low. Fant is tough to play and will have to be a long hold for dynasty players. This is a major disappointment after a great start to his career.

Mike Gesicki - Gesicki is a major disappointment so far. The new Miami Dolphins offense does not fit Gesicki's skillset, and he left as a round peg trying to fit a square hole. Fortunately for Gesicki, he will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. Until then, he slides from a weekly starter to more of a desperation option at the position.

Kevin Coleman

Cole Kmet - Cole Kmet was a trendy late-round tight end target in all formats this off-season but had fallen flat on his face the past two weeks. Part of the blame shifts to the Bears' offense, which has attempted the fewest passes in the NFL in the first two games of the season. He has zero fantasy points this season and just two targets. Until the Bears get their offense together, Kmet's dynasty value will continue to fall.

Noah Fant - The Seattle offense looks one of the worst in the NFL, which doesn't bode well for Fant, who seems to be the fourth or fifth option in a bad offense. Fant has only six targets through the first two games, and backup tight end Will Dissley has five. That doesn't bode well for Fant's long-term outlook in Seattle. The best hope we can have for him moving forward is Fant signing a free-agent deal this off-season; otherwise, it looks like he will be irrelevant for fantasy in 2022.

Christian Williams

Pat Freiermuth - Getting excited about the Steelers' offensive pieces is difficult, but Pat Freiermuth is moving up dynasty rankings with a lack of elite options at the tight end position. His nine catches for fewer than 100 yards through two weeks don't inspire confidence, but his 17 targets rank third among tight ends. He has become the second option in the offense ahead of Chase Claypool and George Pickens, and he finds the end zone consistently. Freiermuth was already a top-twelve option, but with increased volume and age 23, dynasty managers should view him as a top-five option.

Noah Fant - After two weeks, Noah Fant is nearing closer to being labeled a dead asset. Fant is talented, but his dynasty value is on the downturn until the Seahawks' offense scores points at a high rate. Splitting tight-end targets in a mostly 12-personnel offense do not inspire confidence, and his place behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett limits his upside.

Nick Whalen

David Njoku - I wouldn't expect any substantial immediate improvements from David Njoku. But the reinforcements are coming later in the season when Deshaun Watson becomes the starting quarterback and immediately lifts this offense to a top-10 passing team. Njoku's value will rise with improvements in production, and he's signed a long-term deal to be paired with Watson. Have the patience and foresight now to have a payoff later with Njoku.

Kyle Pitts - The Falcons have played two of the top five defenses in the NFL, giving Kyle Pitts lots of attention. I would buy any dip in value his owners are giving him right now, even with Drake London producing well in that offense. Pitts' numbers will improve, and the Falcons should have a better quarterback at the helm coming in the 2023 NFL Draft to make the dynasty outlook even brighter.