Cutting Through the Noise, Week 15

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

Michael Pittman - WR16 and Overall No. 31

Michael Pittman did just enough in his second season to be considered one of the league’s most promising young receivers, but how much can we trust him going forward with a struggling Colts organization?

In 2016 Pittman started his college career with the USC Trojans. He was barely involved as a freshman, even without any NFL-caliber competition sans JuJu Smith-Schuster. His sophomore season got off to another rough start, first with relegation to second-team reps, then with a severe ankle injury. He finally gained some traction late in the year, but it wasn’t until year three that he truly began to thrive.

Pittman became the number one option in his offense as a junior. He put together a respectable season turning 41 receptions into 758 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was on his way, but it wasn't until his senior year that his draft stock heated up. He caught 101 passes for 1275 yards and 11 touchdowns. He put the cherry on top by finishing third in voting for the Biletnikoff award, behind only JaMarr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.

The 2020 receiver class was one of the most impressive groups we had seen in some time. Six wide receivers were selected in the first round alone. Had it been a different year, Pittman would have been one of the top picks. Instead, he falls to the Colts in the early second round as the eighth wide receiver selected.

He’s got two productive seasons under his belt while catching passes from five different starting quarterbacks.

The Good

Michael Pittman’s resume starts on the right foot by getting selected inside the top 50 picks. He walked into a wide receiver room desperate for production, and he answered the bell early. With 40 receptions for 503 yards as a rookie, he checked multiple boxes for early indicators of long-term success at wide receiver. His second season confirmed our priors as he managed to hit his first 1,000-yard milestone. He dominated team targets with the 10th-highest market share in the league.

This impressive season is amplified by the fact that it was accomplished with Carson Wentz, who was a double-edged sword. On one hand, Wentz was above average in deep ball attempts. On the other hand, he was one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league. Pittman benefited more from the volume than the quality of target. We view market share domination as a clear indicator of a player’s ability to earn targets, but it does not contextualize production. His season was productive, but it was clear, given his play style, that he would’ve been better suited for a possession role with a veteran quarterback who could play on time.

Insert Matt Ryan.

The Bad

If we could design the perfect quarterback for Pittman, it would’ve been prime Ryan. Even post-prime Ryan should’ve been an improvement over Wentz. Fourteen games into the season, that has not been the case.

The Colts have had a roller coaster of a year. First, they benched their big-time acquisition at quarterback. Next, they fired their formally beloved head coach. Finally, they added an interim head coach directly from their ring of honor, who immediately reinstated Ryan as the starting quarterback. How much of Pittman’s down season can be his fault in this environment?

Well, there are two parts to that problem. First, Pittman should still be producing at a high level based on his volume alone. Second, even if none of his down seasons was his fault, how can we reliably predict his surroundings improving in the near future?

Pittman is 11th in the league in total targets. He’s 17th in team market share. He is 23rd in total yards with just 1 touchdown. We aren’t talking about a total loss of a season, and we must remember that he played two games with Sam Ehlinger, but it isn’t the year three leap we had hoped for from a borderline top-10 receiver in dynasty.

This leaves us with our second question. How does this offensive look over the next couple of years?

Conclusion

Jeff Saturday is nowhere close to securing a full-time job as head coach of the Colts going forward. This is promising news as it means we’re at least guaranteed a legitimate play-caller next season. Ryan is under contract next season with eighteen million dollars in dead cap should Indianapolis release him. In today’s NFL, Ryan’s cap hit doesn’t necessarily guarantee him a spot in 2023, but I’m not so sure he’s unserviceable if he does indeed remain in Indianapolis.

He certainly has not been the boost the team thought they were getting when the trade was executed, but he’s completing 68% of his passes. He’s been widely considered washed, yet he’s still 13^th in air yards even with 2 missed starts. The Colts can be productive with Ryan under center if they get a competent coaching staff around him.

This brings us back to Pittman with the assumption that he gets one more season with Ryan. Without knowing exactly what the Colts' coaching staff will look like, it’s difficult to give a glowing recommendation. What we do know is that the Colts have a promising young defense, the league’s best running back, an offensive line that looks incredible on paper, and a veteran quarterback who’s probably still held in high regard in NFL circles. With those factors considered, we could see one of the lead coaching candidates taking over this team, making now a great time to invest in Pittman, before those rumors circulate.

Pittman has been slowly creeping down the dynasty rankings, and at the end of the season his counting stats won’t pop out, but he’s still worth a top-50 pick in hopes that the Colts offense is vastly improved for the final season of his contract.