The Top 10 from Week 8

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 8 Matt Waldman Published 11/01/2021

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 8'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Derrick Henry's injury has the team projecting an absence of 6-10 weeks and the Titans lack a player who is remotely good enough to replace him. While a trade could give the Titans an immediate stopgap option with the upside of a hedge against Henry's successful return to the field, the best stopgap option is 36-year-old Adrian Peterson, who fits the offense, remains as ageless as a player can be at the position, and the Titans signed immediately.
  2. Two key offensive cogs in the Jets' upset of the Bengals were rookie running back Michael Carter and reserve quarterback Mike White. I show you why Carter was one of the most refined backs in this draft class and what made White an under-the-radar standout at Western Kentucky and why it translated during his first NFL start.
  3. Deebo Samuel is halfway through a massive season and despite lacking an all-around game, there are key traits that the 49ers value.
  4. While Matt Nagy was away, Justin Fields shows he can play: Although we wish Nagy a speedy recovery, we hope he doesn't micro-manage the game plan the Bears staff used with Fields, who was finally allowed to use his legs as a weapon.
  5. Kyle Pitts may be the headliner of the 2021 rookie class of tight ends, but Pat Freiermuth is the best "true tight end" of the group and the Steelers' game reveals why he's no slouch as a fantasy receiver.
  6. Kareem Hunt's absence didn't force the Browns to lean heavily on Nick Chubb on Sunday. While there's a strong likelihood that Cleveland used Chubb sparingly due to his calf injury, the team's confidence in D'Ernest Johnson and its offensive scheme as a whole are underlying reasons that put a cap on Chubb's fantasy ceiling. Still, Chubb's fantasy floor might be the highest among fantasy runners.
  7. Mac Jones is improving every week and could factor as a top fantasy quarterback down the stretch. My projection: Buy-now in dynasty leagues because he's a top wide receiver away from excellence and I'm predicting that player will be Chris Godwin, whose 8-catch 140-yard day against the Saints was only a partial demonstration of the value Godwin can bring as New England's top option in 2022.
  8. Micro-Movements is a term I coined a few years ago to highlight what made Ezekiel Elliott a top runner, even when much of the analysis community revealed its ignorance about running back play. Sunday night, Elliott's micro-movements were the difference in the game and it went beyond his work between the tackles.
  9. The Saints stopped Tom Brady on Sunday when it mattered most, but if they can't stop Brady's onslaught of fantasy production, no one will.
  10. Fresh Fish.
    • Mike Evans' late-game case of alligator-arms was a disappointment.
    • Justin Herbert demonstrates why there are 3-5 plays per game that carry more weight than the rest.
    • Zach Wilson's backyard quarterbacking style gives analysts hope, but he's in a hopeless situation this year and an easy mark.
    • Opposing defenses are exploiting the limits of Patrick Mahomes II' patience and he's paying the price.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Adrian Peterson: The Ageless Stand-In for Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry's injury has the team projecting an absence of 6-10 weeks and the Titans lack a player who is remotely good enough to replace him. Jeremy McNichols is a scatback whose added weight since his years at Boise State hasn't made him a better runner between the tackles. He failed out of Tampa Bay after multiple backs proved better early in McNichol's career, notably Peyton Barber, whose metrics aren't nearly as good as McNichols but his footwork, understanding of blocking schemes, and contact balance make him a much more productive runner between the tackles.

Darrynton Evans was so good as a rookie that Tennessee tried him out at wide receiver this spring. He's a straight-line runner who functions best on gap plays outside the tackles and other runs that cultivate open space. In other words, it takes a lot from the rest of the team to put Evans in a position where he can maximize his skills.

Mekhi Sargent might be the most intriguing of the three backs. He's not fast like the other two but he actually understands how to run the football between the tackles. He sets up blocks, reads his keys, and has refined footwork. He's also a solid receiver. Sargent, an undrafted free agent, performed well enough to force his way onto the active roster to begin the year. While sent to the practice squad last week, there's a good chance he's called back to the active roster after Henry's injury.

None of these backs have the high-end skills that can remotely replace Henry. Count on Tennessee adding a proven veteran this week.

A trade could have given the Titans an immediate stopgap option with the upside of a hedge against Henry's successful return to the field and they can have the option to re-sign the player in 2022 if there are complications with Henry's recovery. However, they made the best immediate choice of signing the player who was the best stopgap option: 36-year-old Adrian Peterson, who fits the offense and remains as ageless as a player can be at the position.

Although Peterson is at his best behind the pulling lead blocks of a gap game, he has experience with zone schemes and the Titans have the personnel to run both types of plays. Tennessee's use of fullbacks, multiple tight ends, and deep backfield alignments with the quarterback under center are all catnip for a back like Peterson, who does excellent work when he has a runway to work towards the line of scrimmage.

Peterson no longer has the top-end speed that he had eight years ago, but his short-area quickness, contact balance, stamina, and strength were still apparent last year in Detroit.

The elder Peterson will not replace Derrick Henry's production 1:1 in this offense — a tall order for any back — but this is the ideal situation for Peterson to deliver RB2-RB3 production with occasional RB1 weeks in fantasy leagues. Look for McNichols to have a slightly larger role early on but I wouldn't write off Peterson as an outlet receiver, especially in the screen game and short routes to the flats.

Peterson's chances of becoming a league-winning addition are small, but his likelihood of delivering impactful production to your starting lineup is big enough to make him a priority acquisition. I added him this afternoon in leagues where there weren't global player locks for unsigned options.

Peterson is one of the sole remnants of an era where players were built differently. He's a steel-framed '57 Chevy coming to a field filled with pickups and SUVs with aluminum and fiberglass bodies. If age finally doesn't catch up with him this year, you'll see it after a collision. Peterson's opponents risk getting totaled. Peterson will just pound out the dent and keep it moving.

2. The Mike You KNew And the Mike You Didn't in the Jets' Upset of the Bengals

New York's upset of Cincinnati featured two Mikes — one you should have known about and one you likely didn't know anything about unless you're a draftnik.

Running back Michael Carter was one of the most refined backs of his class. Many labeled him a scatback with limited every-down upside due to his size and whatever metrics the "film-lite" segment of draft analysts can be prone to overvalue. If you want to dig deep on the traits of Carter's game that have (and will) translate well to the NFL, this RSP Film Room will give take you to the other side of the world.

Carter has been impressive enough in New York to finally earn the starting role, which is saying something when considering that the Jets' offensive line and quarterback play has made running the football equivalent to getting dropping in the middle of a Buffalo herd during a stampede. However, the Jets anticipated the Bengals' strategy to attack quarterback Mike White, the Mike you don't know much (yet), with a lot of blitz and drop looks and it led to a great deal of open space for Carter to operate as an outlet.

Carter's work in space afforded him easier gains and got Jets fans excited enough to think they have the next Christian McCaffrey. Laugh all you want, but as a Cleveland Browns' fan, I've witnessed firsthand how fans of downtrodden franchises latch onto the first sign of quality play in the way a drowning man might see a life preserver and a can of sea rations as first-class accommodations.

Jokes aside, Carter has starter traits and I thought it would only be a matter of time before the Jets elevate him to the lead role. Even in space, you can see that Carter's efficient style translates well between the tackles. He knows how to set up blocks, when to elude pursuit, and when to attack it with excellent pad level. It's Carter's maturity as a runner that often crosses up the metrics-only evaluators, sports bettors, and DFS experts who are disappointed when they don't see a 24/7 use of moves that pass their eyeball test rooted in a "highlight plays are the only plays" mentality.

Because the Jets lack the offensive line and proven quarterbacking to support a consistent ground game, look for Carter's fantasy value to fluctuate weekly in 2021. He's a better dynasty option than a re-draft commodity, but flex-value in PPR leagues should be his baseline moving forward and game scripts could make him a solid fantasy RB2.

Think of Carter as a better all-around talent than D'Andre Swift but with less surrounding talent on the offensive line. It means Carter could continue to see game scripts similar to Swift leading to a lot of touches in space. I wouldn't be trying to trade proven RB2s for Carter but if you need an RB2 and you're in a win-or-else mode, take a shot if you have more good receivers than you can start in your league.

While crazier things have happened, don't count on White killing off Zach Wilson's career before it even begins. Still, as Carter detailed to the media after the Jets' upset, White is a gym rat who is among the first in and last out and is known for taking mental reps with every starter snap.

White showed enough poise, quick processing of coverage, and accuracy to beat Cincinnati's game plan designed to rattle White during his first NFL start.

White wasn't a top prospect in the 2017 class, but he had moments of decision-making that popped off the film and showed promise that it could translate to Sunday. This play below illustrated White's ability to manipulate coverage in a difficult situation. It was one of the best I saw from any quarterback in recent years and I never saw it from the likes of Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, or Deshaun Watson when I studied their college tape.

This play alone doesn't make White a future star but when paired with his hard work off the field, it's possible that White bought himself a shot at more playing time even when Joe Flacco gets acclimated to the Jets playbook. White isn't a player to add, but he's worth keeping tabs on because first-time starters don't normally produce this well or with the poise that he displayed.

3. Deebo Samuel is the best of the 49ers Offense and It Probably Drives Kyle Shanahan Nuts

Samuel is on pace for totals in the realm of 100 catches, 1,700 yards, and 10 touchdowns. These are career-year totals for Hall of Fame receivers with complete games, not a pass-catcher like Samuel whose route game is one step removed from a scatback — and I'm not kidding. Samuel's route running lacks precision. He rounds-off breaks, there's not a ton of manipulation to the portion of the route before the break, and, like Brandon Aiyuk, he doesn't fit Kyle Shanahan's grand vision of his receivers excelling in every receiver role on the field.

This probably irks a system coach like Shanahan, who has already banished multiple players of talent for not matching specific requirements that many coaches wouldn't adhere to so dogmatically, especially when you're not winning enough football games to cast standout talents aside. However, Samuel has two things that Shanahan prizes enough that he can't toss Deebo into the dumpster where he tried to hide Aiyuk: great speed and great play strength.

What Samuel lacks in precision, he makes up for with aggressive and physical play.

There's also the fact that, as good as Aiyuk is, there aren't many receivers outside of receiver-turned-running back Cordarrelle Patterson, JaMarr Chase, and a few others who have the speed, strength, and finish to win deep on one play and house-call short targets the next.

Samuel is the exceptional physical talent that the media will use as a point of comparison for a lot of future players with physical traits but remedial skills who won't make the league. Ride Samuel for all he's worth this year and while he may never reach these statistical heights again or become a complete receiver, he doesn't need to be for you to gain great value.

4. While the Nagy Is AWay, Justin Fields Can Play...

Even if you hate Matt Nagy's performance as a head coach, you hope he makes a full recovery from COVID-19. That said, this is Nagy's second absence from a weekly game plan and it was the difference between a struggling Justin Fields and the budding star we saw against the 49ers on Sunday.

Fields' rushing outputs have been disappointing under Nagy-influenced game plans. Without Nagy, the Bears leveraged Fields the way any college football fan, scout, and coaching without their head up their hind parts would imagine: zone reads, play-action rollouts, and other designed runs.

While Fields didn't deliver a superstar performance as a passer, he had plays that provided a glimpse into what could be for him and the Bears sooner than later.

The fact that the Bears have only given Fields eight designed runs all year before entering this game — dozens of plays fewer than what has been designed for top runners at the position this year — is ludicrous. If you ever want an example of how myopic head coaches who are "system guys" can become in the NFL, Chicago's early handling of Fields is among the best.

5. Pat Freiermuth is Proving Why He's the Best Tight End in the 2021 Class (Kyle Pitts Is a Receiver)

Yes, Freiermuth. Pitts is a great football player and among the 3-5 best prospects of the 2021 class. He was also my No.1 tight end on the board, but that's because his receiving skills are so far and away better than any options I've seen since Travis Kelce entered the league that his blocking only needed to be adequate for him to earn the top spot. Even so, no team in its right mind was going to use Pitts primarily as an in-line option. It would be like asking Miles Davis to play the piano, he's probably passable at it, but people paid the price of admission to see him play the trumpet.

Freiermuth was easily the best blocking tight end in the class. Even so, there's an acclimation process for most blockers when they make the jump to NFL competition, and facing off against Jadeveon Clowney — arguably the best run-stopping edge player in football — is like jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge. It won't end well.

This humbling moment aside, Freiermuth's receiving skills would have made him a headliner at the tight end position in just about any rookie class that didn't have Pitts involved. While not a speedster, he's quick enough to win underneath and has the techniques you want from a route runner who can present mismatches against linebackers and safeties.

Freiermuth is a smart player who has become a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger, a player who Roethlisberger recently told former teammate James Harrison — an old-school throwback of a player — that Harrison would love playing with Freiermuth. The transition he made after the catch shown above is a perfect display of identifying his coverage and knowing how to win against it.

He's also capable of beating top safeties. Ronnie Harrison is one of those rare defensive backs who can match up well against Travis Kelce, something he showed with the Chargers before Cleveland signed him this spring. While Harrison makes a good play on this target, Freiermuth still manages to win the play and score on a vital possession in this Browns-Steelers rivalry.

Just like Pitts' vertical route against Xavien Howard last week, Freiermuth's catch against Harrison is one of those plays that change how teams will plan against a player. Even so, there are enough receiving weapons in Pittsburgh that Freiermuth will remain a strong fantasy factor this year, especially when a player like Harrison can't stop him. There aren't many like Harrison in the league.

6. The Browns' confidence in its Scheme and D'Ernest Johnson May Be Bad News for Nick Chubb's Upside

Nick Chubb has the highest floor of any NFL running back because Cleveland is already using him in his "floor scenario" with Kareem Hunt splitting touches and taking most of the receiving work. There isn't another running back with RB1 fantasy value last year or likely this year who has had a legitimate high-end RB1 talent splitting time with him.

That said, Chubb's 2,000-yard ceiling is unlikely to ever manifest in Cleveland. The primary reason is the caliber of the offensive line that gives the Browns confidence to run a variety of plays that can fit the styles of multiple runners. Cleveland can generate creases in the zone and gap schemes that Chubb can execute at the highest level, which makes him rare. However, it also means this versatility of blocking excellence opens the door for the Browns to use other backs in committee with Chubb who are limited to just one style.

The fact that it can also trick opponents into thinking pass when the play call is a run offers additional value to backs who might lack Chubb's talent to gain yards when opponent knows what's coming their way.

The versatility of the ground game also opens the doors for a successful short passing game that features space backs who aren't strong runners between the tackles. This double-wing look from an empty set is the basis for a screen pass that is technically a throw, but really an extension of the running game.

Fantasy GMs should gain two insights from this analysis: A) Nick Chubb's ceiling is capped relative to his immense talent because the Browns scheme can pair just him with any back that has baseline NFL contributor talent and get production from that player. B) Watch out for the fantasy analysts who tell you this year or next that Chubb isn't an attractive early-round pick because of this ceiling. Because the flip side of that statement is that Chubb's floor is low-to-mid-range RB1 value and that makes him arguably one of the safest bets at the position in fantasy.

Of course, the Steelers' game was an exceptional circumstance when considering that Chubb returned from a calf injury earlier than expected and he likely returned early because it was an important divisional game. While Chubb performed well in limited time, one of the reasons Cleveland could limit its top runner was the confidence in its surrounding talent upfront and the skills of D'Ernest Johnson, who essentially earned Hunt's role.

I expect Chubb to earn a lot more touches if his calf responds well to Sunday's workload but Cleveland's confidence in Johnson means the Browns can continue to platoon Chubb with a back playing the Hunt role. While I think it's a waste of Chubb's ceiling, especially in the passing game, they hope to keep Chubb fresh for games where they really need him to manage a heavy workload as well as prolong his career. Considering his impact-per-touch, I get it.

Sometimes, even in fantasy, there are players where maybe it's best not to be greedy, even when the temptation is overwhelming.

7. Mac Jones' Trajectory Could make Him One Receiver Away From Excellence—And Chris Godwin Could be That Receiver

There are two stories with Jones. There's the player most think they saw and the player with whom they are becoming acquainted.

The player most thought they saw was a noodle-armed, short-game passer with a dad bod who got overrated because all Alabama quarterbacks play with great surrounding talent and since many of them weren't good NFL passers, Jones must follow suit. These see plays like this schemed-up completion on third down and conclude that Jones is just a game manager with a good head for pre-snap football.

What they've overlooked, refused to see, or simply didn't know, is that Jones has been and will continue to be an aggressive downfield thrower with enough arm strength to make every NFL throw.

And that arm strength will improve as transforms his dad bod NFL-level core strength at the position. No, Jones will never develop Matthew Stafford's arm, but he always had a stronger arm than Joe Burrow, and Burrow improved his velocity this summer. Expect Jones' offseason training to enhance the torque he can use to generate even greater velocity.

Although velocity will never be the strength of this game, it never was for Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady. This trio leaned on quick processing of the field, aggressive play, and efficient mechanics to deliver with anticipation and placement. They often make plays look easy that are technically above the paygrade of superior arm talents and athletes at the position. Jones' efficient maneuvering from edge pressure to deliver the 44-yard completion above is a good example and I'll show one of Brady's later.

This play below is also a strength of Jones' game, which is winning on third down. This is a vital part of quarterbacking and if you saw my RSP Film Room on Jones with Mark Schofield, you'll notice that I used only third and fourth-down plays for my portion of the film analysis.

The common element I see missing from Jones' potential to become a fantasy QB1 with an elite production ceiling is the lack of a top receiver. Nelson Agholor is a competent deep threat with skill after the catch, but he's not great at positioning himself between the defender and the ball when it comes to the entire route tree. N'Keal Harry and Jacobi Meyers have what Agholor lacks in physicality but neither are true separators or skilled YAC options and only Meyers runs close to the full route tree.

The top offenses have at least one receiver who can do everything well. I showed this with JaMarr Chase last week and there are others who fit this description: A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb are three examples of young receivers who fit this description before they even took a snap in the league.

Another, who gets overshadowed often in the Buccaneers' great offense is Chris Godwin. A free agent after this season, the Patriots aren't known to spend a lot of money but if there is an option I could imagine Bill Belichick targeting who is actually worth the cost, Godwin is it. He can play all three receiver positions at a high level. He wins contested catches and has the physical frame to hold up over the middle and out-position cornerbacks.

Godwin is a skilled route runner who also has the acceleration and deep speed to win anywhere on the field.

While Godwin had some notable drops during last year's stretch run, his career has been known more for his catch rate than his drop rate. Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham are also dropping the ball more than what we've been accustomed to seeing, so one year shouldn't dissuade you. If the Patriots sign Godwin during the offseason, I'll be drafting Jones as my late-round quarterback next summer.

8. Micro-Movements: The Elite GAme of Ezekiel Elliott Stands the Test of Time

Micro-Movements is a term I coined a few years ago to highlight what made Ezekiel Elliott a top runner, even when much of the analysis community revealed its ignorance about running back play. Sunday night, Elliott's micro-movements were the difference in the game and it went beyond his work between the tackles.

Micro-Movements are an indicator of a players' problem-solving ability. Elliott has excellent athletic ability, technique, and understanding of his position's role in the game plan. He also possesses a quality beyond these skills that allows him to make small adjustments to get the most from an interaction. This pass block is an ugly effort if judging solely on technique, but the late adjustment when he's on the ground is indicative of the small, in-play moves that Elliott will do to win a play and it makes a difference on drives.

And more drives lead to more touches for you bottom-liners thinking about market share.

9. The Saints Stopped "NFL Tom Brady" at Key Moments, but No One Can Stop "Fantasy Tom Brady"

How do you stop Tom Brady? On a play-to-play level, you keep the plays in front of your defenders and hope they have the awareness to read where Brady is going, peel off their assignment, and help out their teammate. This is what the Saints did to intercept Brady twice in this game.

It also helps get deliver immediate pressure up the middle that stops Brady before he can even begin to release the football. Neither of these tactics is sustainable on a drive-to-drive basis, which means other than staying close in the contest and hoping these tactics and stop Brady in key moments, there is no way to stop Brady's production on a consistent basis.

Especially with his surrounding talent. This is why I was essentially standing outside the virtual offices of Footballguys wearing a sandwich board with a picture of the Buccaneers' passing offense and shouting into a bullhorn week after week that you must stack this passing game. This play below is a great example of why: Brady beats New Orleans on his third read — one that required him to pivot to the opposite side of the field late in the play and deliver an efficient deep throw.

There aren't many quarterbacks who do this as consistently and fewer who make it look effortless.

He's one of the best to ever play the position and he's having a season that should help you win your league.

10. FRESH FISH: WEEK 8

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Mike Evans

See the play above where he alligator-arms the pivotal target in a divisional matchup that could have decided the game. It's a tough play but one you expect Evans to at least attempt to catch.

Here's the rest of the list.

  • The Lions' offensive line gave up six sacks, including two in the first quarter of a laugher against the Eagles. They got beat on the edge, bull-rushed, and even T.J. Hockenson offered an assist when he stepped on his tackle's foot.
  • Kenneth Gainwell. The Lions are a bad run defense and the fact that the Eagles have seen enough from Gainwell to know it was better off with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott tells you how little power and contact balance Gainwell has with his game. Unless he adds weight in the offseason, he's a slightly bigger Donnel Pumphrey.
  • Justin Herbert is a fine young player, maybe a little too loved in just Year Two, but he gave up two plays out of the 3-5 that matter in the outcome of a contest. Keenan Allen also makes the list for contributing the third of those 3-5 plays.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
QB RB TE WR Point-per-reception strategy Chicago Bears Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Detroit Lions New England Patriots New York Jets San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Nelson Agholor Brandon Aiyuk Keenan Allen Peyton Barber Odell Beckham Jr Braxton Berrios Tom Brady A.J. Brown Joe Burrow Derek Carr Michael Carter Michael Carter II Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb Jadeveon Clowney Ezekiel Elliott Darrynton Evans Mike Evans Justin Fields Joe Flacco Pat Freiermuth Kenneth Gainwell Jimmy Garoppolo Chris Godwin Ronnie Harrison Jr. Derrick Henry Justin Herbert T.J. Hockenson Jordan Howard Xavien Howard Kareem Hunt Justin Jefferson Mac Jones Travis Kelce CeeDee Lamb Patrick Mahomes II Marcus Mariota Christian McCaffrey Jeremy McNichols Cordarrelle Patterson Adrian Peterson Kyle Pitts Ben Roethlisberger Deebo Samuel Mekhi Sargent Boston Scott Matthew Stafford Mitch Trubisky Fred Warner Deshaun Watson Mike White Zach Wilson Jameis Winston
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