Passing Matchups Week 7

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Top 5 Passing Matchups

LA Rams vs Detroit

The Rams are gaining dividends for their trade of Matthew Stafford. The longtime Lion has flourished under Sean McVay, hitting on 70% of his throws at a robust 9.9 adjusted yards apiece. Working behind an elite front line helps, and our Matt Bitonti ranks this Rams group sixth league-wide. It also helps that Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have meshed so well with Stafford’s style. Kupp is a slot man at heart, but he keeps winning on all levels of the field. He’s relegated Woods to a clear No. 2 role and has topped 90 yards in 5 of 6 games thus far. Tight end Tyler Higbee always looms as an auxiliary threat, while second-year man Van Jefferson has stepped up as the No. 3 wideout. Their timing and instincts help Stafford strike quickly and effectively, and the end result is one of 2021’s most potent attacks. In a matchup like this, the only concern is how long the game will stay competitive.

The Lions probably have the league’s weakest group of cover men, so it’s unsurprising they’re such an appealing fantasy target. This unit needed a talent injection even before its cornerbacks began dropping like flies. Now they’re forced to feed full-time snaps to the likes of Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs, and the results are often explosive. No team has allowed more net yardage per throw, and they’ve let a receiver top 95 yards in each game thus far. Last week it was Ja’Marr Chase’s turn to blow past Jacobs for one splash play after another (4 catches for 97 yards); he could’ve produced even more had that game stayed competitive. The weakest link might actually be in the slot, where rookie A.J. Parker looks like a sitting duck for Cooper Kupp this weekend. Parker has been roasted for a number of big plays, and Kupp is adept at climbing past the slot man. Overall, it’s unfair to ask this toothless unit to hang with the Rams’ air attack, so the sky is truly the limit for Matthew Stafford and company.

Green Bay vs Washington

The Packers don’t always feed Aaron Rodgers enough passing volume to blow off fantasy doors. He’s thrown fewer than 30 times in half his games as coach Matt LaFleur preaches balance in good game script. But his efficiency metrics remain strong, below last year’s MVP level but otherwise his best in years. It’s encouraging that he’s thrown 2-4 touchdowns in every game since Week 2; he’s clearly still the catalyst anytime he’s asked to be. Davante Adams remains a full-on target hog, claiming 34% of Rodgers’ throws. He averages 8 catches and 11 yards a game as a matchup-proof WR1. It’s anyone’s guess week-to-week as to whether Robert Tonyan Jr, Randall Cobb, or the running backs will find mismatches and see surprise volume. But Rodgers’ attack is so smooth and efficient, it’s safe to project big numbers whenever it truly needs to. A road shootout against a worn-down Washington secondary could bring out the fantasy best in Rodgers.

The Football Team entered 2021 with “pass defense” checked off as a strength, but it certainly hasn’t panned out in the early going. Through 6 games they rank bottom-10 in most coverage metrics. This unit probably isn’t as bad as it’s looked – the early-season schedule of quarterbacks has been brutal, including dates with Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes II. But it’s telling that each of those three got whatever they desired in this matchup, averaging 364 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. (Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston also got in on the fun, each posting a four-touchdown game of their own.) Much of the blame has been heaped upon free-agent addition William Jackson III, who has indeed been worked over repeatedly on the young season. A strong cover man for years in Cincinnati, Jackson’s stumble has had a ripple effect across a talented secondary. Kendall Fuller, Bobby McCain, and slot man Kamren Curl have been similarly unreliable and easy to pick on down the field. And it’s worth noting that safety Landon Collins has been atrocious in help coverage for years. Those holes were on full display Sunday as Tyreek Hill and his Kansas City cohorts took turns splitting these weak zones. Just as concerningly, the vaunted pass rush of last year has yet to show up, with just 12 sacks thus far. Overall, until this group proves it can add up to the sum of its parts, it’s an easy fantasy target against a dialed-in Aaron Rodgers.

Kansas City at Tennessee

The Chiefs have had their struggles here in 2021, and their dynamic pass game isn’t immune. Patrick Mahomes II is putting up the worst rating, QBR, and yardage rate of his starting career, along with his highest interception rate ever. Mahomes is still seeking out a dependable third target beyond target dominators Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce; this offense misses Sammy Watkins more than it was likely prepared to. Speedster Mecole Hardman has been incorporated more into the offense, but still makes far too many mistakes and has yet to post back-to-back 70-yard games through two-plus seasons. That said, the best air attack in football continues to get its numbers. Mahomes is averaging 315 yards and 3 touchdowns a game, and Hill and Kelce account for 178 of it (56%). They’re also constant touchdown threats in this mile-a-minute attack, regardless of the matchup or game flow.

The Titans were short-handed and undermanned even before their defensive backs began dropping like flies. They opened the year giving up massive stat lines to DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, and Corey Davis. Now, they rank 26^th in net yardage allowed and 23^rd in yards per game, and over the past two weeks they’ve lost a full-time starter (Kristian Fulton) and their first-round pick (Caleb Farley) to long-term injuries. This unit was already struggling mightily, with journeyman Janoris Jenkins falling well short of expectations as thus far. Jenkins was signed (and Farley was drafted) to fortify this group with coverage talent, but it hasn’t happened. When Farley went down Monday night, replacement Breon Borders stepped in and impressed, but has a shaky history in coverage. To be fair, though, some of their struggles can be pinned on a weak pass rush that sits 27^th in pressuring quarterbacks.

Tennessee vs Kansas City

The Titans don’t typically prefer to throw with much volume, but they’ll likely make an exception for Week 7. Not only do the Chiefs present a formidable opponent and tough game script, they’re also horrendous at defending the pass, which has to be tempting. Tannehill may have to attack without Julio Jones, who continues to struggle with a long-term hamstring injury. But Tannehill put on a clinic Monday night with A.J. Brown, who continues to prove himself far more than a deep threat. Brown is also electric at working the shorter zones, moving the chains, and piling up volume (7 catches for 91 yards last week). And of course, when the ball is in his hands, he’s an after-catch dynamo. It’s fair to take even his strongest production of the year and amplify it in this massive AFC showdown.

The Chiefs secondary remains among the league’s more volatile, and therefore beatable. They got a breather last week against Washington’s erratic Taylor Heinicke, but have allowed 280+ yards in 4 of their 6 games thus far. And this isn’t the dominant Chiefs of 2019-20 – opponents are shredding them through the air from neutral game script because it’s the clear blueprint. Even Heinicke was close on a pair of deep balls to Terry McLaurin that could have reversed their fantasy day. On most weeks, the Chiefs are picked apart on multiple levels of the field, but particularly with the deep ball. Cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton have disappointed all year, and the safeties don’t provide much deep help. Tyrann Mathieu is more of a centerfielder type, while Daniel Sorensen has long been a major liability against the pass. The team is hopeful two key starters, tackle Chris Jones and cornerback Charvarius Ward, will return from multi-week injuries. But even those two aren’t enough to keep the typical Chiefs game from erupting into a shootout.

New Orleans at Seattle

The Saints knew what they were getting in franchise quarterback Jameis Winston, and it’s remarkable how little has changed. Winston continues to mix dazzling downfield plays with drive-killing miscues; it’s quite the jump from Drew Brees’ controlled, polished approach. Winston isn’t throwing much (just 23 attempts per game), but he’s going for the fences when he does (6^th in yards per completion). He’s throwing to very little receiving talent at the moment, with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith still out indefinitely. Preseason star Marquez Callaway and special-teamer Deonte Harris lead the wideouts right now, but they’re ideally specialty players. The only dependable piece here is Alvin Kamara, who leads the team in volume. Luckily, Winston and his weapons get to poke for big plays against one of fantasy’s softest matchups of 2021.

The Seahawks continue to stumble badly against the pass at the worst possible time for their season’s hopes. They’ve given up an average of 306 yards a game, as well as a few Herculean efforts to opposing wideouts they’ve faced. The Saints don’t boast an elite receiver right now, but it’s encouraging to see just how much damage the likes of Julio Jones (6 catches for 128 yards), Justin Jefferson (9 for 118 and 1 touchdown), Deebo Samuel (8 for 156 and 2), and Robert Woods (12 for 150) have done. Much of the blame has been heaped on up-and-down superstar Jamal Adams, who has struggled mightily as the league’s new highest-paid safety. Adams stamps himself “best in the nation” in his Sunday Night Football bio, but his coverage work has been the stuff of internet memes. He seems to be good to give up at least one big play up the seams per week, and opponents are clearly zeroing in. On the outside, there’s little more than a handful of replacement-level bodies. In a nutshell, this unit is bouncing between schemes and lacks the personnel for either, with no Richard Sherman to erase half the field while they figure things out.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

NY Giants vs Carolina

The Giants passing game has been hit pitifully hard by injuries, and it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be catching the ball this Sunday. Quarterback Daniel Jones has shown real improvement here in 2021, and he can be forgiven his Week 6 dud against the swarming Rams. But his receiving corps has been lost to a haze of injuries and questionable tags. Sterling Shepard is set to utterly dominate the target share; he drew 14 last week with Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton inactive, then Kadarius Toney and C.J. Board knocked out of the game. Slayton looks the likeliest, if any, to return for Sunday, but none of those names can be trusted until kickoff at best. The same goes for tight end Evan Engram, who disappointingly saw just 5 of Jones’ 51 looks last Sunday. Perhaps deep reserve Dante Pettis will again make an impact – he drew 11 of those targets Sunday after the injuries piled up.

The Panthers were rocked through the air Sunday by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, to the tune of 373 yards and 3 touchdowns. But that looks more like a hiccup by a talented unit that’s dominated for most of the early going. Opponents had averaged just 185 a game prior to that, with just a single receiver topping 100. This is a particularly aggressive unit, blitzing the second-most in football and leading the league in pressure rate. Of course, a blitz-happy team is in trouble when it isn’t hitting home, as this group didn’t against the Vikings. But the team has gone to great lengths to fortify its coverage unit. And as a result, the loss of star rookie Jaycee Horn hasn’t crushed them. A.J. Bouye has been a pleasant surprise on one side, and Donte Jackson is generally solid on the other. As soon as this Sunday, they’ll have recent Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore added to the mix. Gilmore has long been a man-coverage dynamo who can shadow (and often erase) top wideouts. If that carries over, it will free up the rest of these playmakers to make life even harder on offenses.

Houston at Arizona

The Texans continue to have what might be the league's worst passing offense. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills simply looks maxed-out as a long-term substitute, averaging just 6.7 yards per throw and 203 a game while filling in. The Texans have scored 9, 0, 22, and 3 points in Mills’ starts, which speaks volumes about the effect it has on the cast around him. Brandin Cooks remains a dynamic playmaker – he’s somehow topped 78 yards in 4 of his 6 games thus far. But the cupboard is bare everywhere else for the woefully mismanaged Texans. Tight end Jordan Akins and running back David Johnson sit tied for second with 18 receptions, at a combined 9.2 yards per catch. The second-most productive wideout has been Chris Conley, who’s caught seven balls through six weeks. There’s no reason to start a non-Cooks Texan, now nor anytime soon, and a date with the Cardinals should only drive that home even further.

The Cardinals have come out of a brutal early schedule at 6-0, and for all of Kyler Murray’s greatness, much of the credit belongs to Vance Joseph‘s pass defense. This unit sits fourth in adjusted yardage rate, fourth in quarterback knockdown rate, and sixth in interception rate. They’ve yet to allow an opponent to top 280 yards through the air, and they’ve stifled a handful of red-hot wideouts, including A.J. Brown (6.1 yards per target), Justin Jefferson (6.5), Deebo Samuel (6.4), A.J. Brown (6.1), and Cooper Kupp (4.9). It starts up front, where Chandler Jones, J.J. Watt, and Markus Golden lead a powerful and diverse pass rush that’s rattled most opponents. In the secondary, they’ve coaxed strong man coverage play out of veterans Robert Alford and Byron Murphy, and safety Budda Baker keeps improving in help coverage. But this group truly thrives when those pass-rushers are hitting home, and their matchup with the Texans’ league-worst front line (according to our Matt Bitonti) is a major mismatch this week.

Indianapolis at San Francisco

The Colts have to be encouraged by Carson Wentz’s apparent turnaround. He’s been extremely efficient in three straight games, posting an elite 9.8 yards per throw with 6 touchdowns (no interceptions). It was impressive to see him carve up the hard-nosed Ravens two weeks ago, and last week’s cakewalk over the Texans went off as planned. Wentz may never be an elite prospect again, but he’s a smooth fit as a capable playmaker in Frank Reich’s run-oriented attack. Unfortunately, Wentz’s supporting cast is roughly as durable as , and it’s always a chore to project everyone’s viability for the week. T.Y. Hilton’s return to action (4 catches, 80 yards) was spoiled by a quad injury he may not bounce back from by Sunday. And Parris Campbell continues to lose his career-long battle with the injury bug; he went almost immediately on injured reserve. Michael Pittman is in line to take advantage, though he took a definitive back seat to Hilton before the injury.

The 49ers allowed Jared Goff and the Lions to ride garbage time to 338 yards and 3 touchdowns on Opening Day. Since then no opponent has cleared 265 in a game, regardless of the script. This unit isn’t flawless in coverage (and could stand an upgrade on cornerback Josh Norman), but coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ aggressive pass rush makes life much easier on the back end. Nick Bosa continues to dazzle as a surefire All-Pro, with 10 quarterback hits and 5.0 sacks through 5 games. Ryans doesn’t even have to blitz often (22^nd in blitz rate) to pressure the pocket, which allows playmakers like Jimmie Ward to attack the receivers and the ball. Tight ends in particular see tough sledding in this matchup, thanks to the likes of Ward and linebacker Fred Warner, who makes his living as a coverage star. Their last 4 opponents have totaled all of 9 receptions, 59 yards, and not a single touchdown from the tight end position.

Cincinnati at Baltimore

The Bengals have worked Joe Burrow back to action gradually, and the approach seems to have worked. He’s still not throwing with a ton of volume (29 attempts a game), but has been wildly efficient (8.9 yards per throw) and productive (14 touchdowns to 7 interceptions). Last Sunday he needed barely three quarters to rack up 271 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions. Burrow has impressed, helped along by a rapidly improving front line and a truly dynamic set of young wideouts. Former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase is not just explosive, but versatile and a true weapon on all levels of the field. Given their history, this feels more like a set of second-year teammates simply in the zone than a rookie situation. Tee Higgins may still rotate in as the nominal WR1 at times, while Tyler Boyd is one of the more dependable slot men in the game. The pecking order more or less stops there, so if they’re to have any real success against the swarming Ravens, at least it’ll be concentrated on the wideouts.

The Ravens pass defense has been anything but consistent, giving up a pair of 400-yard games in the early going. But last week’s shutdown of Justin Herbert and the high-octane Chargers was impressive. The red-hot Herbert needed 39 attempts to gather 195 yards last Sunday, pushing the pocket from all sides and forcing errant throws. It’s safe to expect this crew to round into shape quickly, still stocked with the likes of Marlon Humphrey and (occasionally) Jimmy Smith in the secondary. They also benefit from the ball skills of free safety DeShon Elliott, who was a wrecking ball against Herbert and his receivers Sunday. This unit needs a playmaking free safety to make quarterbacks pay for errant throws, and Elliott’s breakout is a great sign. Up front they keep getting strong mileage from veterans Calais Campbell and Justin Houston, and rookie Odafe Oweh actually leads the way in production (8 quarterback hits, 3.0 sacks). Overall, this looks like the same aggressive unit that bullied Joe Burrow and broke up his impressive rookie run last year. It will certainly make for Burrow’s biggest test of the last month or so.

Denver at Cleveland

The Broncos pass game has made fantasy folks happy over the past 2 weeks, with 622 yards and 5 touchdowns through the air. But they’ve feasted on garbage time to do so in a pair of ugly losses. Teddy Bridgewater was under siege from the opening gun last Sunday, taking five sacks and constantly throwing from a frenzied pocket. The offensive line’s inconsistent play, coupled with Bridgewater’s lack of mobility, keeps hampering them over the first three quarters. If there’s a positive, it’s the strong rapport he’s built with top wideout Courtland Sutton, who’s posted 15 catches for 214 yards and scored twice over the last two. Sutton, Tim Patrick, and tight end Noah Fant have dominated targets, sharing 59% thus far, and Jerry Jeudy is unlikely to make his return Thursday night. The Browns may be free-falling right now, but they do present an iffy matchup for this shaky attack.

The Browns are spiraling with injuries to their quarterback and their whole running game, and where their season is going is anyone’s guess. But prior to the last two weeks, they were boasting a truly dominant pass defense, one that had embarrassed every opposing quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes II. It’s true that Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray have found in-roads through this group over the past two weeks, with each throwing four touchdowns and winning. Safeties John Johnson and Ronnie Harrison have long proven themselves better than they’ve looked of late, and the team still has faith in Grant Delpit to develop. But this group is hard to beat up front, where Myles Garrett leads a potent pass rush that sits second league-wide in pressure rate and third in sack rate. Garrett is responsible for 8 of the team’s 18 sacks and on the short list for Defensive Player of the Year. He was the driving force in back-to-back wins over the Bears and Vikings. On the back end, the Browns field one of the game’s best cornerback tandems in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, who will have fairly light work on their hands against the Broncos’ banged-up receiving corps.