If you want to dominate your drafts this weekend, you need the most up-to-date information and ADP possible with a focus on interpreting the latest news and notes to gain an edge in your drafts.
In recent years, the daily ADP updates from Underdog fantasy (the preeminent best ball site) have added a tremendous resource to our tool belts. We get almost instantaneous “wisdom of the crowd” feedback from thousands of sharp and dialed-in fantasy drafters. While the Underdog best ball ADP may not be directly applicable to your non-best ball league, the recent changes in draft stock in reaction to the latest news provide a treasure trove of information you can use to dominate your non-best ball drafts this weekend. While the takeaways and player recommendations can be generalized to all drafts, all round and ADP mentions in this article refer specifically to Underdog drafts.
In this week’s article, we will look at the major recent storylines you need to account for heading into your drafts this weekend, including:
- Why Gus Edwards should be going higher in drafts
- Favorite early-round targets
- Players to avoid
- High- upside late-round targets
- Favorite targets by round
- Optimal draft strategy based upon drafting spot
Plus, scroll to the bottom for a link to our new tool, the Underdog Exposure Explorer
Gus Edwards is still a value
The biggest news to break since last week was the season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins. Gus Edwards is now the lead back in Baltimore and has seen his ADP jump 50 spots to 61st overall. He is still a major value and should be going in the middle of the fourth round instead of the sixth round. The Ravens RB1 has averaged 72 rushing yards per game when playing alongside Lamar Jackson, which projects to 1,224 yards over a full season. Given the lack of proven depth behind Edwards, 72 yards per game may be a conservative projection. We have seen this scenario before. Back in 2018, Edwards started the final seven games of the season next to Jackson and averaged 93.4 rushing yards per game.
Edwards, who is going off the board as the RB23, has legitimate RB1 upside and is perfectly positioned to have a breakout season. “He’s our kind of guy,” Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said. "He’s really built for what we do. He’s going to get more of a workload now. Not to say it won’t still be a committee, but Gus is definitely going to get a lot of work, and we feel great about that.” As good as J.K. Dobbins is, Edwards is a solid talent in his own right.
Gus Edwards since 2018:
— PFF (@PFF) August 29, 2021
🟣 90.2 PFF rushing grade (5th)
🟣 5.1 yards per attempt (5th) pic.twitter.com/66oG5vxSS0
If Dobbins was deserving of being drafted at an ADP of 32 with Edwards pushing for time behind him, why is Edwards not deserving of going in the same range now that he is the clear top guy? He should not be, target him ahead of ADP.
Early Round Targets
Most teams held their starters out of the final preseason games, so there has not been a lot of game-changing news over the last week. Thus, the same players featured last week are still prime targets this week. For more in-depth cases for the following players, click the link in the previous sentence to check out last year’s article. Here is the shorter case for why the following players deserve your consideration at their current ADPs:
Damien Harris It looked like it was heading this way last week but the Patriots finally made it official a couple of days ago that Mac Jones is the starter, which is big for Harris’ touchdown expectation.
Patriots goal-line carries in the 10 games for which Damien Harris was healthy in 2020:
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) August 31, 2021
Cam Newton - 15
Harris - 3
Rex Burkhead - 2
James White - 1
Sony Michel - 1
Newton's release – vs. just naming Mac Jones starter – eliminates chance of Cam GL package. Huge for Pats RBs.
Sony Michel Michel will start as the 1B for the Rams behind Darrell Henderson but is the favorite for goal-line carries. Plus, Henderson has not been the most durable guy. In the 9th-to-11th round, Michel has a nice combination of floor and upside, especially in the case of another Henderson injury.
Najee Harris Harris played 89% of the snaps with the first-team offense in the preseason. Pittsburgh is one of the few teams left in the NFL who will ride one back almost exclusively.
Najee Harris should have a big fantasy season.
— Dan Hindery (@Hindery) September 1, 2021
-Based on Tomlin’s history and preseason usage, Harris projects to play 900+ snaps.
-Over the last 4 years, 7 RBs have played 800+ snaps in a season.
-Those 7 averaged 358 fantasy points. pic.twitter.com/9FyabEVyax
Jerry Jeudy Jeudy should benefit from Teddy Bridgewater being named starter and is a prime candidate for a second-year breakout. He is one of the last WR2s available with a clear path to a WR1 season.
Redline players
We have mostly detailed players to target in recent weeks. Let’s switch gears a bit and talk about some players who you should pass on at current ADP:
DeAndre Hopkins (16.9 ADP) Hopkins is a great player and should have a good season but the opportunity cost of selecting him near the top of the second round is very high. We shouldn’t pass up running backs with the potential to put up huge numbers (Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, and Antonio Gibson) for Hopkins this year. The Cardinals have much better depth at wide receiver with the additions of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore. Plus, while Hopkins is only 29-years old and age is not a major concern, it is something worth factoring in. Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green fell off the cliff in terms of production around the same age and it is fair to wonder if Hopkins is past his prime.
Kareem Hunt (68.7 ADP) As long as Nick Chubb is healthy, Hunt probably only projects for 10-to-12 touches per game. He has had a high touchdown rate, which has helped him maintain fantasy relevance even as a backup. However, if there is any touchdown regression, Hunt will not help your team much. More importantly, fading Hunt comes down to opportunity cost. He is going in the same range of drafts as Gus Edwards, Damien Harris, and Myles Gaskin. Those three are lead backs with 20-touch per game potential who have easy paths to 10+ touchdowns. It is hard to understand passing on that non-injury upside for a player like Hunt who needs an injury to really take off.
Robert Tonyan Jr (103.1 ADP) Tonyan’s efficiency numbers in terms of catch percentage (88.1%) and touchdown rate (18.6% of targets) were absurd last year. However, despite his strong play, he still saw just 59 targets all season. He is going multiple rounds ahead of a guy like Mike Gesicki, who has averaged 87 targets per season over the last two years. With Davante Adams dominating targets, Aaron Jones excelling as a receiver out of the backfield, Marquez Valdes-Scantling potentially on the precipice of a breakout season, and Randall Cobb providing a security blanket for Rodgers, it is hard to see Tonyan making good on this ADP unless he again scores on nearly 20% of his targets. Don’t count on that happening.
Michael Carter (108.3 ADP) Carter is entrenched in a three-man committee in what could be one of the league’s least productive backfields. Why take him over the likes of Sony Michel or Tony Pollard who are in two-man committees in what should be very productive backfields? The Athletic’s Connor Hughes recently noted:
The Jets like Carter a lot, and he’s undeniably the team’s most elusive back, but this is going to be a running back by committee. Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman will see as many reps as he. Carter isn’t the bellcow of the backfield.
Jalen Reagor (142.3 ADP) As a group, we should not expect too much from the Eagles' wide receivers. This will be a run-heavy offense and big slices of the receiving pie will go the tight ends and running backs. DeVonta Smith already looks like the top target and Reagor is still battling Quez Watkins to be next in the pecking order. We can get more clear-cut WR2s in better passing offenses (e.g. Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Nelson Agholor) in the same range.
Evan Engram (157.1 ADP) Engram’s ADP has slid enough that he is not as hard a pass as he was a couple of weeks ago. However, there are still much better tight end options in the same range. Rob Gronkowski is catching passes from Tom Brady, not Daniel Jones. Gerald Everett has Russell Wilson and Jared Cook has Justin Herbert. Plus, Engram is already nursing an Achilles injury that Giants coach Joe Judge made seem like it could develop into a longer-term issue:
“He wasn’t out with us on the field, he was with the trainers. Yesterday was really kind of a down day for him, in terms of what it is. I don’t think we’re going to have anything hard evidence-wise in these next couple of days. The plan is really to give him a few days, which extends really through this weekend, to see how his body responds and see where he’s at.”
Late-round targets
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (146.2 ADP) Last time we saw Valdes-Scantling he was torching a very good Tampa Bay secondary for 115 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game. He has reportedly made a big leap in the offseason and looks poised for a breakout season. How often can we get the projected #2 pass catcher in an offense that led the league in passing touchdowns last season?
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR: I would say he has been the star of camp so far. A potential breakout candidate — not just for the Packers but the entire NFL. https://t.co/IV1r9WGKvY
— Chris Paul Towers (@CTowersCBS) August 26, 2021
Jameis Winston (159.8 ADP) In his last season as a starter, Winston threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns. Alvin Kamara is a passing-game mismatch. If Marquez Callaway backs up the preseason hype and Michael Thomas returns to form by midseason, this Saints passing offense could peak just in time for the fantasy playoffs. It is still possible to stack Thomas (8th round), Callaway (9th round), and Winston (14th round) without using a premium pick.
Ben Roethlisberger (175.8 ADP) In his last fully healthy season, Roethlisberger led the NFL with 5,129 passing yards and threw 34 touchdowns. In better shape and a year further removed from his elbow injury, Roethlisberger has much more upside than his ADP indicates. A few years ago, there was a strange disconnect between Patrick Mahomes II’ ADP (10th round) and the ADP of his top weapons (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and Sammy Watkins). In the end, the ADP of the weapons ended up being more accurate and Mahomes finished as the QB1. This year, Najee Harris (16.8 ADP), Diontae Johnson (43.6 ADP), Chase Claypool (53.4 ADP), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (78.3 ADP) are all being drafted early. Either their ADPs are inflated or Roethlisberger is underrated. My money is on the latter.
TySon Williams (184.8 ADP) Williams is the clear RB2 now in Baltimore with J.K. Dobbins sidelined for the season. When we thought Gus Edwards was the RB2, he was still going in the Top 10 rounds because of the combination of injury upside and weekly usage. Does Williams not currently have a similar blend of safety and upside as Edwards did a couple of weeks ago? Williams should be going in the 10th-12th round of drafts. Take advantage of the opportunity to grab him later and make him a priority a round or two higher than his ADP to make sure you land him.
New name to add to your final round (17/18) target players on @UnderdogFantasy
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 1, 2021
Ravens RB Ty'Son Williams
Total unknown. Time for BAL to add a RB... but what if they believe in Williams?
130 carries in the best rushing offense in the NFL is achievablehttps://t.co/jM8MIJMW8I
Josh Palmer (181.7 ADP) Palmer has been featured here in past weeks, so we will not waste too much ink. However, we have further fuel to the fire given that Tyron Johnson, who many assumed would push for the WR3 role for the Chargers did not make the team. The value proposition with Palmer is two-fold. First, he should have some spike weeks as the WR3 catching passes from one of the league’s most talented quarterbacks. Second, he is only one injury away from bumping up to the WR2 and potentially smashing his ADP. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have not proven to be the most durable of guys and Williams is already dinged up.
My Favorite Underdog Targets by Round
Here is an updated list of my favorite targets in each round in 12-Team Underdog drafts:
1: Alvin Kamara (early) and Davante Adams (mid-late)
2: Najee Harris (early-mid) and Darren Waller (late)
3: Keenan Allen (early) and David Montgomery (late)
4: Chris Carson and Mike Evans (early) and Chris Godwin (mid-late)
5: Jerry Jeudy and Gus Edwards (early), and Josh Jacobs (late)
6: T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Boyd, and Antonio Brown
7: Myles Gaskin, Damien Harris, and Mike Williams
8: Michael Thomas and Marquez Callaway
9: Elijah Moore and Tom Brady
10: Tony Pollard and Sony Michel
11: Joe Burrow and Mike Gesicki
12: Trevor Lawrence and Rhamondre Stevenson
13: Rob Gronkowski and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
14: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cole Kmet
15: Zach Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jameis Winston
16: Ty’Son Williams and Josh Palmer
17: D’Wayne Eskridge and Derek Carr
18: Hunter Renfrow and Kadarius Toney
Strategy by draft position
As a new addition this week, let’s expand a bit on my favorite targets to talk more specific strategy based upon what pick you draw.
Early Pick
If you draw a top-four pick, it makes sense to lock in a top running back (like Alvin Kamara). The running back pickings are pretty slim when it gets back around to the late-2nd. Instead, locking in a big advantage at tight end with Darren Waller is the move. Then add a WR1 in the third round with somebody like Keenan Allen or CeeDee Lamb. Near the 4th/5th turn, we can add an RB2 (like Gus Edwards) and a solid WR2 (like Jerry Jeudy). Near the 6/7 turn, look to add a WR3 (like Antonio Brown or Tyler Boyd) and RB3 (Myles Gaskin or Damien Harris). Take a shot on a potential playoff WR1 in the 8th round with Michael Thomas. Then you are well-positioned to take advantage of the quarterback and wide receiver depth (see targets above) the final 10 rounds.
Late Pick
When drawing a later pick, my favorite strategy is WR-RB. You can grab an elite WR1 like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, or Calvin Ridley and then come back with your RB1 from the strong group that includes Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Nick Chubb, and others. Near the 3-4 turn, David Montgomery and Chris Carson are great RB2 targets and the board is loaded at wide receiver. Near the 5-6 turn, there is usually strong running back value (Gus Edwards and Josh Jacobs are prime targets in this range) and you can also add a potentially elite tight end (T.J. Hockenson) or continue to build wide receiver depth.
There are plenty of strategies that can be successful if you land on the right players but the balanced approaches detailed above are the ones I see as optimal if you are drafting this weekend. There is so much interesting depth at quarterback, that taking a swing on two or three guys in the 9th round or later still allows for plenty of upside. Locking in three top running backs in the first six rounds allows you to go a bit lighter at the position in terms of numbers and stock up on some of the upside mid-to-late round wide receivers and roster eight or nine total at the position.
Underdog Exposure Explorer
For those who have drafted more than a handful of Underdog best ball teams this summer, this should be right up your alley. We made a tool that allows you to upload your Underdog exposure .csv file (downloaded from the Underdog site) and see reports on the average draft pick used on each of your players (compared to current ADP), a count of your stacks, weighted player leverage, and a number of other fun things to explore.
Check the link here:
Hit me up on twitter (@hindery) if you have any questions or issues. Also, feel free to share any of the reports. I am curious to see who the Footballguys community has been targeting most heavily.
