Sunday Morning Update
Update #1 10:30 AM EST-
Adam Schefter sent an ominous tweet this morning that stated, "As the week progressed, there was a less confident tone that Vikings RB Dalvin Cook would play Sunday vs. Seattle due to his sprained ankle, per source. Cook didn’t practice all week, it’s early in season, and going into pre-game warmups it was considered “unlikely” he plays."
While it is not 100% confirmed, and won't be until after the 1PM games are nearly complete, we need to play Mattison this week at $5,200. The other thing we need to do is to create a contingency plan if Cook were miraculously be active. That is the trickier part, because the options are not great at the running back position.
Other key injury news:
Darrell Henderson will not play this week. Sony Michel on most weeks would be a good play, but the matchup is just too difficult against Tampa Bay this week. As a GPP play he's fine.
Josh Jacobs is out as expected. Not much to see here, other than it should help Darren Waller a little bit. Kenyan Drake becomes an ok GPP play.
Lineups
This is a tough week this week with the Mattison news. I built 30+ lineups by hand this morning trying to find the pairing that I liked the most. The primary cash lineup is where I landed.
Primary Cash Lineup: FBG Projected- 149.4
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
- RB- Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,000
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR- Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,400
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,900
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,400
- Flex Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,200
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400
Secondary Option: I went back and forth on this one all morning. I'm personally not going with it, but because I spent so much time tinkering with options this was the second closest lineup I landed on. FBG Projected- 146.9
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
- RB- Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,700
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR- Chase Claypool, PIT, $5,800.
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,900
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
- TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $6,300
- Flex Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,200
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400
Contingency Plan Only
If Dalvin Cook were to miraculously be healthy and active over the next few hours after the 1PM games have started, here is the late swap I would go with.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
- RB- Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,000
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR- Robert Woods, LAR, $6,100
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,900
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $8,000
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,400
- Flex Kenyan Drake, LV, $5,700
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400
Let me know your thoughts on the article knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (vs LA Chargers) 31 points
- Arizona (at Jacksonville) 29.5 points
- Baltimore (at Detroit) 29 points
- Seattle (at Minnesota) 28.25 points
- Tampa Bay (at LA Rams) 28.25 points
Week 2 Recap
Overall a solid week last week, as we were able to nail the top quarterback, the top wide receiver, and put up 143.9 fantasy points ahead of the projection of 141.9.
What went right:
- Kyler Murray for the second week in a row was the right quarterback. We had five quarterbacks in our potential quarterback play, and Kyler dominated that group. Murray threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns, while adding nearly 10 points rushing as he scored a rushing touchdown for the second straight week. Kyler ended up with 35.1 fantasy points and was the top scorer on FanDuel at the quarterback position.
- What more is there to say about Cooper Kupp at this point? Through two games, Kupp has 271 yards and three touchdowns as he has developed an immediate chemistry with Matthew Stafford. Kupp had 32.3 fantasy points and was the top scoring wide receiver in Week 2.
What went wrong:
- Chris Carson was a scenario where the result was right, but the process may not have been. Carson only had 13 carries for 31 yards, but was able to salvage his day due to scoring two touchdowns. What is interesting for Carson is that he did not have a target in the passing game, so it is something to monitor going forward as the Seahawks are no longer the run-heavy offense that they’ve had the past few seasons under Brian Schottenheimer.
- What on earth happened with Alvin Kamara? It’s almost as if the Saints just forgot that they had a game last week. The Saints were missing a vast majority of their coaches, but even then to only give Alvin Kamara eight carries is unforgivable. Kamara was ineffective as he only had five yards and the team abandoned the run due to falling behind in the game. There could be more to this as the Panthers run defense could be significantly better than what they were last yearas in their three games they have not allowed a running back to top 52 yards.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 3
Spend Up At The Right Positions, Knowing The Site You’re Playing On
One of the biggest mistakes that people make on a week-to-week basis is that they look at a player who they may have heard analysts talking about this week and think it’s a one-size fits all model. As someone who is big into food, think about it as a lobster roll. You’ve never had a lobster roll before, but hear that they are delicious. You should not order a lobster roll at the first place that you see it on the menu which happens to be a Subway.
It may be a terrible analogy, but the point is this, on other sites such as DraftKings, the salary cap is tighter, and the premium that you have to pay for elite talent is more. For example, below is a table which outlines the % of salary that it costs to have a top 5 player at the position in your lineup. What this graph tells you is that you are able to afford more of the premium talent on FanDuel than on DraftKings. Therefore, what you're trying to find is the biggest variance between the top end player and a mid-tier player. This week, that is at the quarterback position as the $1-$2k that you save from going off of the top tier, can easily be made up at other positions such as wide receiver.
|
|
DraftKings |
FanDuel |
|
Quarterback |
15.6% ($7,800) |
14.2% ($8,500) |
|
Running Back |
16.0% ($8,000) |
14.2% ($8,540) |
|
Wide Receiver |
15.6% ($7,780) |
13.7% ($8,240) |
|
Tight End |
12.5% ($6,260) |
11.6% ($6,980) |
|
Defense |
7.9% ($3,960) |
7.8% ($4,680) |
Ultimately, what this boils down to is if you hear certain players being promoted, really focus on what site they’re promoting them on. The scoring is different as well, so a near minimum priced wide receiver who is going to catch 4-5 passes may be great on DraftKings full PPR, but is a clear avoid on FanDuel where with the 0.5 PPR we are looking at yardage and touchdown equity much more heavily.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
This is a week where the Sunday Morning Update is going to be critical.
Dalvin Cook is questionable with an ankle injury after getting “a little” work in on Friday. That doesn’t appear overly promising, and is a key guy on this slate. If Cook were fully health, he’d be the top running back play, but he’s not going to be 100%. If he were to miss, Alexander Mattison is the top player on this slate without a doubt at just $5,200. As of now, the way we are approaching this is Dalvin Cook is going to be active and limited, which means Mattison is not in our lineups at this time, but can quickly enter it and we should be prepared on what to do if he is out.
DeAndre Hopkins will be a game-time decision with a rib injury that has kept him out of practice all week. Hopkins has only missed two games in his career. If he were to miss, there’s not a direct replacement, but all of their players become interesting. The most direct replacement is probably A.J. Green as Rondale Moore’s role is not going to change.
Andy Dalton will miss this week and the next few weeks with a knee injury. This opens the door for Justin Fields to make his first start. There’s a lot of excitement for Fields, particularly due to his mobility, but there are also concerns here as he’s facing a top defense in Cleveland and Fields did not look great last week against Cincinnati. He looked much slower than his 40-time indicated as he was tracked down by several defenders as he tried to get the edge rushing 10 times for just 31 yards last week.
Diontae Johnson will miss this week with a knee injury. This should open up more volume for both JuJu Smith-Schuster as well as Chase Claypool, but honestly this Steelers offense is a complete mess at the moment. If there is a guy to target this week, it would be Claypool who saw nine targets last week and does have much more touchdown equity due to his size and creative ways that the team used him both receiving and rushing last year. At $5,800 he is a nice value this week.
Darrell Henderson will be a game-time decision against Tampa Bay. This is a complete fade even if Sony Michel were to start. Tampa Bay has been the best defense against the run for the last few seasons, and this season they get Vita Vea back after missing most of 2020 due to injury.
Odell Beckham Jr will make his season debut after returning from an ACL injury that ended his 2020 season. Beckham’s timing is critical as Jarvis Landry was placed on IR this week after leaving the Week 2 contest against the Texans early. This is a GPP play only as the price is not terrible at $6,500, but we just don’t know what we are going to get from Beckham. Is he going to be 100% or is he going to be on a snap count?
Tee Higgins is doubtful this week with a shoulder injury. This opens up opportunity for both Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase as potential plays this week. Boyd seems to be the safer of the two options, while Chase has more upside as he has scored in each of his first two games this season. Having been at the Bears/Bengals game last week, a primary focus was watching Chase, and while he was open nearly every play, they were long developing routes. With T.J. Watt and crew going up against Joe Burrow, they may try to get the ball out of his hand a little faster and go with the veteran in Boyd.
Quarterback Decision
The last few seasons, quarterback has been a significant indicator on whether you are going to win or lose on FanDuel. The reason is that the point totals can get quite high if you pick the right guy, that it could be a decision that is worth 15-20 point lead if your quarterback is able to put up 30+ compared to a guy who is only able to muster 15 points.
CONTENDERS:
Kyler Murray- The early season MVP. The case here is simple in that he provides a dual threat that very few offer in his rushing ability, but also turning into an outstanding thrower of the football. There are some questions with Kyler this week however. Can he keep this pace up without DeAndre Hopkins or at the very least a limited Hopkins?
Lamar Jackson- This is one of the early favorites this week, as Lamar is taking on the hapless Detroit Lions defense who can be beaten through the air and on the ground. Jackson has taken over even more of a primary running back responsibility with all of the injuries that have occurred in Baltimore at the running back position. This is a prime spot for Jackson to rush for a touchdown in what should be a shootout of a game, as Baltimore’s defense is incredibly banged up with Jimmy Smith, Tavon Young questionable, after they’ve already lost Marcus Peters to an ACL injury earlier this year.
Russell Wilson- Early season Russell Wilson is back in form. In his first two games this season, Wilson is averaging 299 yards passing and three passing touchdowns. This week he gets to face a defense that just allowed Kyler Murray to pass for 400 yards against them. The only issue with Wilson is he is not running the ball as efficiently as he has in prior years as he has just 2 rushing touchdowns over his last 18 games, and just 25 rushing yards on the season.
Justin Fields- The key to taking the rookie here is the price at just $6,500. Fields presents a dynamic threat of both the run and the pass that really can only be matched by the fantasy elite. The problem with Fields is whether or not he can provide enough offense against the elite Browns defensive line. The Bears defensive line looked decent this past week, but did struggle against the Rams who was sacked three times in that game and consistently under pressure.
Patrick Mahomes II- Mahomes is always in play as he is the safest to throw for 300 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. The problem is that is likely not enough at his price of $8,700. He’s simply too expensive without the 300 yard bonus on DraftKings. The matchup is an ok one going up against a Chargers defense that
CONCLUSION:
Lamar Jackson is the play this week. He provides the right balance of cost savings at $8,400 compared to Kyler Murray’s $9,000, with the upside of having 250 yards passing, 2 passing touchdowns, 100 yards rushing, and 2 rushing touchdowns. This is a Detroit defense that is abysmal since losing Jeff Okudah, and this Ravens offense runs through Jackson.
Value Rankings:
KEY CASH CORE
Saquon Barkley- $6,000
Look, there’s no hiding that this has been an ugly start to the season for Saquon. However, the price is absolutely absurd to get a player at Barkley’s caliber for $6,000 which is less than players such as Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, TySon Williams, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The case for Barkley is that he is still a very talented running back who has faced two of the better defenses in the NFL this season against Denver and Washington. This week he gets a Falcons defense that might be the worst in the NFL. The Giants will look to get Saquon right this week as he is a big part of their plans moving forward.
Austin Ekeler- $7,000
The Chiefs have the worst linebacking group in the NFL by quite a large margin. The Chiefs are allowing 202 yards rushing per game this season. The game plan is very clear to beat them this season which is run the ball and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes II’ hands to limit the possessions. Ekeler struggled in Week 1 against Washington but had an outstanding game last week against Dallas with 9 carries for 54 yards, but added 9 receptions for 61 yards on top of that. This should be a game in which he tops 100 yards, and could be a top value play if he finds the end zone.
T.J. Hockenson- $6,300
Earlier in the article, we spoke a little bit about how banged up this Baltimore Ravens defense is, and how this could be a high scoring game. There are a number of good tight end options on the board here as Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews are all in good spots, but Hockenson just feels like what he is doing is sustainable throughout the entire year. On the season, he has 20 targets for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Lions are going to continue to focus on him as he is their lone bright spot on offense thus far this season as the running game has struggled in Detroit.
The Kamara Debate
This week, the great debate is what to do with Alvin Kamara. FanDuel is basically begging you to play him at $8,000. This is a player who burned so many people this past week. Most people, will write him off until he has another big game, and then get back in on him once that happens. However, this is likely a mistake this week. What we’ve forgotten since Week 1, is that Kamara for the time being until Michael Thomas comes back is the Saints offense. Last week they had four total coaches, had been dealing with the hurricane in New Orleans, and were coming off an emotional high. This was a pretty easy let down spot for New Orleans.
This week, the Saints are taking on a Patriots team that have allowed 113 yards rushing per game this season which is firmly in the middle of the pack. However, this is a team that has faced two of the worst rushing offenses in football in the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. Dating back to last year, the Patriots were the seventh-worst team against the run which should bode well for Kamara this week. If Kamara were priced appropriately in the high $8,000 range, we would not even be considering him this week for cash games, but this is a week that if you can stomach it, he is a very good play that we can suspect a lot of the top players may be using this week.
LINEUPS- Sunday Morning Update Is Critical This Week
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.3)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,000
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR- DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,900
- WR Chase Claypool, PIT, $5,800
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,300
- Flex RB- Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,000
- TD NY Jets, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – No Kamara Cash Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.1)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
- RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $6,700
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,900
- WR Chase Claypool, PIT, $5,800
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,300
- Flex RB- Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,000
- TD New England Patriots, $4,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Seattle/Minnesota Game Stack- GPP (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.0)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $8,400
- RB Joe Mixon, CIN, $6,700
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,400
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,300
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,300
- Flex RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,000
- TD Washington, $3,700