*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
Wild Card Weekend Games
- Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 49 - Spread Bengals -5.5
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 44 - Spread Bills -4
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 46 - Spread Buccaneers -8.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 51 - Spread Cowboys -3
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 46 - Spread Chiefs -12.5
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 49.5 - Spread Rams -4
Raiders at Bengals
- Raiders:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 19th
- Pass DVOA: 17th
- Run DVOA: 25th
- Points per game: 18th
- Yards per game: 11th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 23rd
- Pass DVOA: 25th
- Run DVOA: 9th
- Points per game: 24th
- Yards per game: 13th
- Point Differential Ranking: 23rd (-65)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bengals:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 18th
- Pass DVOA: 14th
- Run DVOA: 20th
- Points per game: 5th
- Yards per game: 9th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 20th
- Pass DVOA: 24th
- Run DVOA: 11th
- Points per game: 17th
- Yards per game: 18th
- Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+84)
- Offensive Rankings
The offensive and defensive ratings appear very similar for both teams and the spread is only 5.5 points. NFL Playoffs are by far my favorite time to play DFS because we have the ability to dive deep not only into the matchups but the identities of each specific team as well. And having conviction not only on specific plays but on how entire games are going to play out is an absolute requirement. Despite these teams looking similar, I'm on the Bengals winning big here at home and will point to Cincinnati's 149 point advantage in point differential and Joe Burrow's 971 yards and eight touchdowns two-game stretch to close out the season (He was rested in Week 18).
Many years this first playoff game has featured backup Texans or Raiders Quarterbacks and been one to fade, allowing us to ease into the Playoff DFS slate. I'm here to tell you no matter what slate(s) you're playing, you'll have to get this first game right in at least some capacity in order to keep a first-place finish alive in tournaments.
So let's start with the obvious, the Bengals offense. Joe Burrow ($6,800) has an awesome matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA and 24th in points per game allowed yet Burrow is only the fifth-highest priced Quarterback. Burrow stacks are mouth-watering, which makes both JaMarr Chase ($7,400) and Tee Higgins ($6,300) priority plays. Meanwhile, trusting the process puts us on Tyler Boyd ($5,000) as a low-owned contrarian pivot attached to the best Quarterback play on the entire slate. According to DVOA, the Raiders stack up better against the run but we care way more about the extreme matchups and Las Vegas is not one of those. Joe Mixon ($6,800) has numerous ways he could go off in this one. He could take advantage of the projected positive game script and rush for over 100 yards and at least one score, he could add upside and production in the receiving game, or he could just benefit from Burrow going off and find pay dirt numerous times thanks to Burrow putting the Bengals in scoring position time and time again.
This game script means our main choices on the Raiders side of things are Hunter Renfrow ($6,000), Darren Waller ($5,700), and Zay Jones ($4,200) playing from behind against a Bengals defense that only ranks 24th in pass DVOA. And we definitely want to have some exposure on some teams to this Raiders passing game in a script that produces high volume thanks to Derek Carr ($5,500) having a solid season, at least from a yardage standpoint. Carr ranked fourth in the entire league in passing yards per game (288.6) from Weeks 1-17. Waller makes sense as he'll likely be relatively low-owned. Waller was injured in Week 12 and didn't return until last week, hardly producing in a prime-time matchup. Yet Waller ran 37 routes compared to Hunter Renfrow's 28 routes and saw nine targets last week. Jones is highly intriguing priced at only $4,200 as he's seen 35 targets over his past four games. Josh Jacobs ($6,500) is certainly in play but does not correlate well with my projected game flow.
Patriots at Bills
- Patriots:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 10th
- Pass DVOA: 9th
- Run DVOA: 9th
- Points per game: 8th
- Yards per game: 16th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 2nd
- Pass DVOA: 3rd
- Run DVOA: 7th
- Points per game: 1st
- Yards per game: 3rd
- Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+159)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 8th
- Pass DVOA: 12th
- Run DVOA: 6th
- Points per game: 3rd
- Yards per game: 5th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 3rd
- Pass DVOA: 2nd
- Run DVOA: 15th
- Points per game: 2nd
- Yards per game: 1st
- Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+194)
- Offensive Rankings
It's a shame these two teams have to play each other for a third time because the statistics show these are two of the best teams in football. It will be interesting to see how one of the toughest games to predict shakes out while being played in very cold weather. Weather.com currently projects a high of 11 degrees in Buffalo on Saturday and this game won't even kick off until 8:15 PM EST. The frigid weather makes me want to go straight to evaluating the run games. The Patriots rank 9th in Run DVOA and the Bills rank 6th in Run DVOA so both teams are plenty capable of producing on the ground but the ways these two teams find success in this area are very different. The Patriots have two very capable pounders in Damien Harris ($6,400) and Rhamondre Stevenson ($4,700) while the Bills have settled in on a top back in Devin Singletary ($5,700) but either way, it's Josh Allen ($7,800) who puts Buffalo's run game over the top and who will likely be used ad nauseam in this capacity on Saturday in a "Do whatever it takes to advance and beat the Patriots" approach.
Take a stand on this game and have conviction and my way of doing that will be diversifying my plays on different lineups depending on which team wins. The Bills win scenario: Josh Allen and Devin Singletary (21.5 opportunities over his past four games) likely both produce solid games and could even hit massive ceilings (Allen clearly is the way likelier of the two to have a ceiling game here). Despite the cold, Stefon Diggs ($7,200) likely produces as well. Diggs finished the regular season with the fifth-most targets (164) in the league. And let's not forget about Dawson Knox ($4,800). Knox is playing on almost every offensive snap and could produce in this game script. On the flip side, this scenario could actually put a Patriots' pass-catcher in the optimal, depending on which slate you're playing. Jakobi Meyers ($4,500) is priced affordably for a player that averaged 7.4 targets per game in Weeks 1-17. For context, Kendrick Bourne ($4,500), who I also like, only averaged 4.1 targets per game over that same stretch. Hunter Henry ($3,700) is New England's clear-cut pass-catching Tight End and really shouldn't be this cheap.
The Patriots win scenario: Damien Harris ($6,400) likely crushes. And I want to be clear here, Harris can produce even if the Patriots lose. In fact, Harris did just that against the Bills in a Week 16 loss when he still produced 103 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Harris ranked tenth in the league from Weeks 1-17 in rushing yards per game (63.7) and finished the regular season ranked sixth in total touchdowns (15). And playing from behind, Emmanuel Sanders ($4,000), Cole Beasley ($4,300), and Gabriel Davis ($4,600) all pop up on the radar.
Eagles at Buccaneers
- Eagles:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 12th
- Pass DVOA: 15th
- Run DVOA: 3rd
- Points per game: 12th
- Yards per game: 14th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 16th
- Pass DVOA: 21st
- Run DVOA: 16th
- Points per game: 8th
- Yards per game: 7th
- Point Differential Ranking: 13th (+59)
- Offensive Rankings
- Buccaneers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 1st
- Pass DVOA: 1st
- Run DVOA: 4th
- Points per game: 2nd
- Yards per game: 1st
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 11th
- Pass DVOA: 8th
- Run DVOA: 12th
- Points per game: 10th
- Yards per game: 14th
- Point Differential Ranking: 4th (+158)
- Offensive Rankings
Even though the Buccaneers are banged-up it's hard to bet against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs. Brady ranked first in the NFL in pass yards per game (311.9) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) in Weeks 1-17 and led a Tampa Bay offense that ranked first in Overall DVOA and Pass DVOA. I see the Buccaneers winning without much to worry about in this one but either way, we want to make sure we gain exposure to Brady, especially since the touch distribution has narrowed with the recent losses of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. All signs point to Leonard Fournette ($5,900) being the starting Running Back here while Ronald Jones II misses the game with an injury. Fournette ranked 11th in the entire league in opportunities per game (18.9) and scored double-digit touchdowns in only 14 games during the regular season. Mike Evans ($6,900) is the clear-cut Wide Receiver 1 now, just went over 1,000 receiving yards for the eighth straight year, and scored 14 touchdowns in the regular season. But Rob Gronkowski ($6,400) could actually be the top receiving option for Brady in the playoffs after averaging 8.4 targets per game in eight contests to end the year after returning from injury mid-season. Gronkowski has seen double-digit targets in three of his past four games.
I'm not much interested in the Eagles' Running Back committee or passing weapons attached to a middle-of-the-road passing Quarterback, at best, in Jalen Hurts ($6,100). But Hurts is mildly intriguing as a dual-threat Quarterback in a come-from-behind game script as are Dallas Goedert ($4,500) and DeVonta Smith ($5,500). Worth noting though, Tampa Bay has lost some steam as of late so the Eagles pulling the upset is not that farfetched. I believe an Eagles win is more likely than either a Steelers or Raiders win, I'll put it that way. And if that does come to fruition, it's hard to see Hurts not being at least close to the optimal Quarterback play.
49ers at Cowboys
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 5th
- Pass DVOA: 5th
- Run DVOA: 5th
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 10th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 8th
- Pass DVOA: 18th
- Run DVOA: 2nd
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 4th
- Point Differential Ranking: 12th (+62)
- Offensive Rankings
- Cowboys:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 9th
- Pass DVOA: 7th
- Run DVOA: 17th
- Points per game: 1st
- Yards per game: 2nd
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 1st
- Pass DVOA: 1st
- Run DVOA: 18th
- Points per game: 7th
- Yards per game: 19th
- Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+172)
- Offensive Rankings
This is the game of the week and it looks like Vegas agrees as this matchup has the highest Over/Under (51). Both offenses are exciting and rank in the top ten overall according to DVOA. There should be enough points scored here that telling yourself a story before the game isn't as important as it sometimes is. The points are going to be scored regardless. However, Elijah Mitchell ($5,500) appears to be a thin play if the 49ers lose. Mitchell only saw 20 targets from Weeks 1-17 and is facing a Cowboys defense that ranks first in overall DVOA. If San Francisco can pull out the victory though, expect to see a heavy dose of Mitchell as he ranked eighth in the entire league in opportunities per game (20.6) from Weeks 1-17.
Deebo Samuel ($8,100) is the absolute man and a very tough player to fade. Samuel finished the regular season ranked third in total yards (1,770) and tied for seventh in total touchdowns (14). Samuel is game script independent as in addition to his incredible receiving profile, he has also received five+ rush attempts in eight straight games. George Kittle ($6,000) is a perfect tournament play with a boom/bust profile that could hit the high range of outcomes in this favorable fantasy game. Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400) has 201 receiving yards over his past two games and Jauan Jennings ($3,800) provides salary savings despite just posting six receptions on seven targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns a week ago.
Now let's get to the real fun stuff. Dak Prescott ($6,400) ranked seventh in pass yards per game (276.9) and tied for seventh in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) from Weeks 1-17 and led a Cowboys offense that ranked seventh in pass DVOA. Prescott gets to play at home in this awesome matchup against a 49ers defense that only ranks 18th in pass DVOA. Prescott has nuclear upside within his range of outcomes here which makes all of his pass-catchers highly intriguing. Factoring in salaries, I would rank them in this order: CeeDee Lamb ($6,200), Dalton Schultz ($5,000), Cedrick Wilson ($4,400), and Amari Cooper ($5,900). Lamb has the profile to explode at any minute, Schultz has been super solid all season, and Wilson played on 68% of the offensive snaps and put up a big game last week without Michael Gallup. Ezekiel Elliott ($6,100) and Tony Pollard ($5,300) should cannibalize each other and the 49ers defense ranks second in Run DVOA so I'm not very excited about either.
Steelers at Chiefs
- Steelers:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 23rd
- Pass DVOA: 24th
- Run DVOA: 24th
- Points per game: 21st
- Yards per game: 24th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 15th
- Pass DVOA: 13th
- Run DVOA: 27th
- Points per game: 22nd
- Yards per game: 21st
- Point Differential Ranking: 22nd (-55)
- Offensive Rankings
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 4th
- Pass DVOA: 4th
- Run DVOA: 10th
- Points per game: 4th
- Yards per game: 3rd
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 24th
- Pass DVOA: 22nd
- Run DVOA: 19th
- Points per game: 13th
- Yards per game: 26th
- Point Differential Ranking: 5th (+116)
- Offensive Rankings
These two teams played each other in Kansas City just a few weeks ago in Week 16. Despite Travis Kelce missing the game while on the COVID-19 list and Tyreek Hill being extremely limited having just been activated from the COVID-19 list, things still did not go well for the Steelers. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and the only Pittsburgh touchdown came while down 36-3 with two minutes and 54 seconds left in the fourth quarter. This result will be similar. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,400) ranked sixth in passing yards per game (285.6) and tied for fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) from Weeks 1-17 and led a Chiefs offense that ranked fourth in both Overall DVOA and Pass DVOA. He'll be attacking a middle-of-the-road Steelers defense, at best. Travis Kelce ($6,700) appears all systems go and is currently the best play outside of Mahomes on the Chiefs because there are two scenarios still up in the air. Kansas City was still playing for the 1 seed last week yet Tyreek Hill ($7,100) only played on 18% of the offensive snaps because he reported;y injured his heel in pre-game warmups. I have no doubt Hill we be active this week but there is really no chance of knowing how effective he'll be. Proceed with extreme caution on Hill and pay attention to reports over the next few days but understand the likelihood is high of these reports being overwhelmingly positive, even if that's not the truth.
A situation I do think we'll have a clearer read on is The Chiefs' Running Back hierarchy. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,600) didn't practice on Thursday and there is legitimate skepticism regarding his availability at this point. If Edwards-Helaire is unable to go, Darrel Williams ($5,500) immediately skyrockets to the top tied of Running Back plays. it's important to note Williams himself is dealing with a toe injury but he's practiced in at least some fashion on both Wednesday and Thursday. Williams offers more upside as the lead Running Back without Edwards-Helaire in the lineup than Edwards-Helaire does when he's active. Byron Pringle ($3,900) has become a serious threat in this offense yet isn't priced like it. And Mecole Hardman ($4,100) is on the radar due to Hill's injury after playing on 83% of the snaps, running 45 routes, and catching eight of 11 passes for 103 yards last week.
On the Steelers' side, Ben Roethlisberger is one of the worst Quarterbacks in the playoffs so a full fade of Pittsburgh is the first place I'd look. After that, we should be looking at the pass-catchers thanks to the chance they rack up catch after catch while playing from behind. Diontae Johnson ($6,700) ranked third in the league in targets per game (10.6) from Weeks 1-17 and finished the regular season ranked tied for fifth in catches (107), tenth in receiving yards (1,161), and he caught eight touchdowns. But JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,000) reportedly is trending towards playing for the first time since Week 5 and if so, he could steal a few of those short targets from Johnson. Chase Claypool ($4,800) finally found the end zone last week for only the second time this season and offers upside if Roethlisberger can muster one or two more deep completions out of his decrepit arm. Similar to Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris ($6,600) is in play thanks to elite volume but he doesn't correlate well with this projected game flow.
Cardinals at Rams
- Cardinals:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 13th
- Pass DVOA: 6th
- Run DVOA: 23rd
- Points per game: 11th
- Yards per game: 8th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 6th
- Pass DVOA: 6th
- Run DVOA: 5th
- Points per game: 5th
- Yards per game: 10th
- Point Differential Ranking: 9th (+83)
- Offensive Rankings
- Rams:
- Offensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 6th
- Pass DVOA: 8th
- Run DVOA: 12th
- Points per game: 9th
- Yards per game: 6th
- Defensive Rankings
- Overall DVOA: 5th
- Pass DVOA: 5th
- Run DVOA: 4th
- Points per game: 15th
- Yards per game: 16th
- Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+88)
- Offensive Rankings
The Wild Card round comes to a close on Monday Night Football in a fun one between division rivals in a contest with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5). Similar to the 49ers and Cowboys matchup, this game is very likely to produce solid fantasy outcomes on both teams, regardless of the result. So having conviction on who will win is a bit less important but obviously, still ideal. Odds are though that two similar teams will play somewhat of a close game. My lean is the Rams pull out a victory at home but either way, let's get into it. Cooper Kupp ($9,000) is a set it and forget it play at this point. He's most certainly not a must-play but if fading him, make sure your wide receivers and flex spots all offer upside and are in favorable spots for their offenses to produce fireworks (Such as Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys, and 49ers players). Matthew Stafford ($6,300) had a great season as he ranked second in pass yards per game (290.5) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4) in Weeks 1-17 and led a Rams offense that ranked sixth in Overall DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA. The Cardinals defense does not present an easy matchup but Stafford is priced as only the seventh most expensive Quarterback. Stafford is certainly in play, especially if you're lock buttoning Kupp. A way to add some diversification and to ensure you have the Charizard version of Kupp is to lock in his Quarterback as well for all the possible passing points between the two. Targets over the past three games: Tyler Higbee ($4,100) 23, Odell Beckham ($5,100) 20, and Van Jefferson ($4,700) 14. Higbee is the most affordable of the three, making him a very interesting Tight End and/or Flex spot. Sony Michel ($5,400) losses some steam with Cam Akers ($4,200) playing in his second game in a row after seeing eight opportunities last week. But even with Akers, Michel still saw 35 opportunities last Sunday. Michel remains a solid play.
On Thursday, Chase Edmonds ($5,000) confidently reported he's playing this week. Meanwhile, James Conner ($6,300) reportedly is a legit game-time decision. The Cardinals' running back spot is so valuable for fantasy that at this point, it's looking like Edmonds is going to be a great play whether Conner suits up or not. Remember, Conner missed Weeks 16 and 17 due to injury and then left Week 18 with an injury to his ribs. Zach Ertz ($4,700) should cost at least $1,000 more. Without DeAndre Hopkins from Weeks 15-18, Ertz has seen 43 targets over that four-game stretch. Here are how the targets have been distributed between the Wide receivers during that stretch: Christian Kirk ($5,300) 33, A.J. Green ($4,900) 26, and Antoine Wesley ($3,300) 21. And similar to the theory we discussed earlier regarding Jalen Hurts, where you do want to take a stand is if you believe the Cardinals win the game. If so, that likely puts Kyler Murray ($7,200) near the top of the Quarterback leader board. Murray has only scored a rushing touchdown (two in Week 13 against the Bears) in one game since Week 3. We have to think that turns around in the playoffs, right?
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Chris Godwin OUT and Antonio Brown CUT - Upgrade Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, Cyril Grayson, and Scott Miller
- DeAndre Hopkins OUT - Upgrade Zach Ertz, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Antoine Wesley
- James Conner Game Time Decision - Upgrade Chase Edmonds if Conner sits
- Michael Gallup OUT - Upgrade CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson, and Dalton Schultz
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire's status in doubt after not practicing on Thursday - Upgrade Darrel Williams
- Ronald Jones II likely OUT - Upgrade Leonard Fournette
- Rams S Jordan Fuller OUT - Upgrade Cardinals Offense
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, JaMarr Chase, and Darren Waller
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, JaMarr Chase, and Hunter Renfrow
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Darren Waller
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hunter Renfrow
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Darren Waller
- Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Hunter Renfrow
- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz
- Patrick Mahomes II, Darrel Williams, and Travis Kelce
Flag Plant Plays
- Joe Burrow
- Tee Higgins
- Damien Harris
- Rob Gronkowski
- CeeDee Lamb
- Travis Kelce
- Chase Edmonds if James Conner is out or reportedly limited in any way
