Welcome to Week 17 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate A.J. Dillon's future, potential regression-proof canddiates for 2021, players we expect to rebound next year, and difficult keeper choices.
Let's roll...
Regression Proof
Matt Waldman: Pick a top starter from 2020 (QB1, RB1, WR1, or top-five TE) that you'd bet against regressing in 2021.
Adam Harstad: Hi! Nothing to see here, just the guy who writes our weekly Regression to the Mean column popping in to remind everyone that no one is actually regression-proof.
Waldman: Now that I've successfully tweaked Harstad for the week, we'll go for entertainment value over scientific value. That's the "in" thing to do, right?
Sean Settle: It is finally time to realize the hype for T.J. Hockenson is real. There may be some questions about what happens if Matthew Stafford is no longer the quarterback or how many targets he loses with a healthy Kenny Golladay, but he proved to be a top-five tight end this season (No.4 via Yahoo standard scoring).
He finished the year with 98 targets, trailing only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Logan Thomas. With more time, he will become more of a weapon in the red zone and if this team does nothing to fix their defense, they will constantly be in negative game script and have to throw the ball.
Hockenson is going to be here to stay and could easily be the third tight end off the draft board next year behind Kelce and Kittle. There should be no regression next year just more improvement for Hockenson.
Dan Hindery: One of the interesting decision points for next season’s drafts is going to be how early to draft a quarterback. In 2020, the optimal decision was waiting until the middle rounds for Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers, who finished QB1 and QB4, respectively. The relative depth and seeing a mid-round quarterback emerge as the overall QB1 for the third-straight season (Allen in 2020, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Patrick Mahomes II in 2018) are likely to push the top quarterbacks down boards a little bit in 2021.
There is some benefit to locking in a player who is as close to a sure thing as we have in fantasy right now, however, instead of waiting and hoping to hit a home run at the position. That guy is Patrick Mahomes II and we may be able to get him in the fourth round next year.
Perhaps even later in leagues where most drafters prefer to wait at the position. While his QB3 finish in 2020 was not a league-winner, it was still another extremely impressive season and added even more certainty when it comes to projecting Mahomes forward.
Unlike some of the other top quarterbacks who have had some down years or only a one or two-year sample size of fantasy success, Mahomes has strung together three straight elite seasons and has never been anything short of spectacular at any point in time. For his career, he is averaging 308 passing yards and over 2.5 touchdowns per game. He is as “regression proof” as they come in terms of fantasy stardom.
Chad Parsons: Travis Kelce now has five seasons in a row finishing as TE1 or TE2 overall in PPG. Locked in with Patrick Mahomes II, Kelce has a bulletproof situation on a pass-dominant offense with a game-changing quarterback. Injury is the lone roadblock to Kelce continuing his dominant stretch of production in 2021.
Waldman: I completely agree with Harstad that no one is regression proof but if I'm seeking candidates to buck the trend, I like Sean's choice of T.J. Hockenson. Ascending talent figuring out a difficult position and coming into his own at the appropriate age are worthwhile factors for consideration that match Hockenson's career trajectory at this point. Even if Matthew Stafford leaves Detroit, I think Hockenson will remain a top-five tight end and deliver fantasy value that, at worst, may technically be a regression if you look strictly at the data, but the fantasy value at the position will remain stable or grow.
It doesn't take a genius for anyone who has read my work during the past four years to know that I have a founding member's compartment on the Patrick Mahomes II' career bandwagon. So, it's easy to agree with Dan about the value that Mahomes presents as a safe premium pick.
I have rarely seen quarterbacks as safe candidates to be the exceptional "regression proof" option, but Mahomes is. The Andy Reid offense and the surrounding talent of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and yes, Clyde-Edwards Helaire's receiving gifts are massive reasons why.
However, the root factor is Mahomes. He does things on the field that no quarterback in history has done with his level of consistency. Brett Favre and John Elway showed the most flashes of what Mahomes displays multiples times a year, if not multiple times per game. Matthew Stafford has 1-2 plays a season that lead you to wonder "what if," he read the field better, had better receivers, and a top-notch head coach and offensive mind.
That's about it. Mahomes has a photographic memory, he processes information with incredible speed and confidence, and as a result, his daring throws that many understandably misjudged as high-risk are more often moments of inspired genius supported with top accuracy.
The fact that Mahomes has practiced these throws for years should also tell you that he's not "winging it" but meticulously planning for these moments so that when he recognizes them unfolding in an off-script situation, he can react as if it was part of his plan for the past 7-8 years. After all, that's about how long he's been practicing these throws.
I'll throw in Nick Chubb. Despite the fact that Kareem Hunt is a top-10 running talent, Chubb missed half the fantasy season, and Baker Mayfield wasn't even delivering impressive production until late in the year due to growing pains early in the year and bad weather later, Chubb is the No.13 fantasy back heading in Week 17 despite a clunker of a game against the Jets last week.
As I mentioned at the season's beginning, a healthy Chubb behind this promising Browns' line earning the touches he'd get if a back the caliber of Hunt wasn't in Cleveland would result in Chubb nearing the 2,000-yard rushing mark. He has some of the best vision, footwork, power, and short-area quickness of any back in the NFL and he's in his prime.
He'll once again have fantasy analysts and the public considering him a low-end RB1, at best, but his weekly production when healthy was much closer to the top-five fantasy tier than the low-end RB1 tier. I think he'll retain that rate of production over the course of a full season in 2021.
Andrew Garda: When I’m wrong, I’m really wrong and I was really wrong about Buffalo’s Josh Allen. While I don’t expect him to be the top Fantasy quarterback next year, Allen definitely turned a corner, improving his accuracy in leaps and bounds this year, adding 14 touchdowns to his total and still finding the end zone with his feet even if he didn’t accumulate the yards he gained on the ground.
Part of it is maturity, part of it is coaching, but a lot of it is finally having a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs, who he targeted 53 more times than anyone else.
Allen turned a corner the last offseason, and I believe he’s going to continue to play at a high level, earning Fantasy GMs titles just like he did this year.
2021 Rebound Candidates
Waldman: Pick a player who was healthy this year but didn't perform to starter expectations in a 12-team 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE format that you expect to rebound in 2020.
I'll begin. This is more of a career-rebound choice, which is Keelan Cole. After looking like a future Pro-Bowl receiver at the end of his rookie year and the beginning of his sophomore season, Cole hit a slump and lost his confidence.
Football is a performance craft, and it is easy for a loss of confidence in a massively competitive environment to lead to a player losing everything. That nearly happened to Cole, who had to work his way back into the starting rotation over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
Keenan McCardell helped rebuild Cole's confidence and Cole has shown excellent skill as both a slot and outside receiver. He can win contested plays against top man-to-man options like Stephon Gilmore as well as work effectively in the slot.
The Jaguars have clearly decided to roll with the Tom Coughlin template for wide receivers, drafting the difference-making athletes in D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault and going with a big athlete late in Collin Johnson, who showed enough as a rookie to build on his efforts.
Cole is a competent NFL athlete, but not a special guy in terms of size and speed. Neither is Robert Woods or Marvin Jones, two versatile athletes in a similar mold as Cole who had much better seasons with their second teams than their first.
Cole could be the next Woods or Jones in 2021 now that his rookie deal is expiring and he probably won't be back in Jacksonville.
T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Rivers figured out how to perform with each other in Indianapolis. While playing with nagging injuries may have been a factor for Hilton, it's was likely working with the noodle-armed Rivers that also slowed the development of this pitch-and-catch rapport.
Put Hilton in a city with a quarterback who is better at buying time and can deliver the deep or with meaningful velocity to the perimeter, and I think Hilton has another top-15 season in him at his position, potentially top-10.
Settle: With a week to go, Josh Jacobs is within striking distance of a 1,000-yard season, but if you asked any Jacobs owner, they would say it did not feel that way. With 6 games under 10 fantasy points scored and very questionable play-calling around the goal line, many Jacobs owners feel like he was a wasted first-round pick. He missed a single game this year against the Jets in what would have been a great matchup, but that would not have been enough to erase several very disappointing games.
Jacobs dealt with some nagging injuries, but not enough to warrant some of the production this season. He had several touchdowns vultured by his own quarterback, backup running backs, and a coach that would rather kick a field goal than go for it when it is 4th and inches on the goal line.
Jacobs has everything to be a top-five running back in this league except for competent play calling. Look for a better overall season next year and a chance to grab him a little later in the draft after most owners feel burned this year.
Garda: I still say LeVeon Bell is capable of top numbers, he just needs to find a competent team. We’ve seen flashes of it with KC, after the disaster that was Adam Gase, He’s on a one year contract with the Chiefs, so it’s hard to say exactly what next year will bring, but if he’s careful in his choices, I think he can return to his status as one of the top fantasy backs in the NFL, and represent a nice value for GMs.
He has been a tad banged up at times this year, but his unfamiliarity with the KC offense has hurt as well.
Also—and this is by no means scientific—I am a big believer in the Post-Adam-Gase-Bump. The year after a player leaves Gase, they suddenly remember how to play football. I believe Bell will be no different.
Parsons: Evan Engram has largely underperformed to his overt talent in his career and 2020 was another checkmark in the column. Engram dropped by more than 4 PPG compared to last year and was finally healthy after missing 12 games over the previous two seasons.
Engram has yet to post strong touchdown numbers in his career, but one score on 61 receptions is an exceptionally rare scoring outage for a well-targeted tight end. Engram is a positive touchdown regression play for next season as well as (hopefully) better quarterback play and intermediate-downfield usage to optimize his rare athleticism for the position.
Hindery: D.J. Chark was not 100 percent healthy but only missed a couple of games and fits the category because it was just a down season overall. He was especially disappointing given how well many of the wide receivers drafted in the same range in 2020 drafts had a great season. Through 16 weeks, Chark is the WR41 in PPR and averaged almost exactly 11 PPG in his 13 starts, which is basically replacement level fantasy production that did not add anything to your team if you started him all season.
He is going to have a great chance to rebound given the fact that Trevor Lawrence is going to be throwing him passes next season. We saw the big boost in production from Keenan Allen (prior to his injury) when Justin Herbert came out of the gates hot as a rookie.
We could see a similar dynamic for Chark next season. Physically, Chark looks a lot like the guys Lawrence loved throwing to at Clemson (Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross). He was never afraid to throw it up deep down the field and let those guys go get it. Chark could easily emerge as a 1,200-plus-yards, 10-plus-touchdown receiver next season with Lawrence.
A.J. Dillon
Waldman: Answer the following about Dillon in lieu of his assault of the Titans defense on Sunday night
- If Aaron Jones walks, what will be Dillons' role in Green Bay as well as his fantasy floor and upside in a 12-team league that starts three backs.
- Same question if Jones stays.
Hindery: The Packers running back situation is one of the big wild cards heading into the offseason. I like to look at these situations as a two-step process.
First, try to put a number on what we can expect from the backfield as a group. Second, attempt to figure out how that pie might be split up. One reason this situation is so intriguing is that the pie has been so massive the past two years.
In 2019, Green Bay running backs combined for 2,335 total yards, 25 touchdowns, and 94 receptions (478 PPR points). With one game to go, the Green Bay running backs have combined for 2,514 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 87 receptions in 2020 (428 fantasy points).
Even with a game to play, that is 900+ fantasy points for Packers backs over the last two years. With Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to keep defenses honest, this is a backfield that should again produce something like 450 fantasy points next season.
If Jones walks, you would have to assume Dillon would be the lead back and get at least 60 percent of the touches, including most of the goal-line work. Just some simple back-of-the-envelope math (60 percent of 450) would put Dillon at around 270 fantasy points, which would have been good for an RB4 finish this season. He would be especially attractive in standard-scoring because the biggest negative for Dillon is that he probably is not going to be a guy who catches more than a couple of passes per game.
If Jones is brought back, then the situation is a lot murkier. The running back usage in the playoffs will be instructive and the salary Jones is able to command will also be worth considering when determining their respective roles.
Do we see close to a 50/50 split in the playoffs? Do the Packers pay Jones $10M a year on a legitimate franchise back type of deal or does he only come back with a short-term, lower-money deal because no real market develops for him in free agency?
Waldman: Dillon has top-five, re-draft RB upside if Aaron Jones walks because Dillon understands how to play to his size and run through contact as a big back. This is an element of running back play that has unfortunately gone missing with a number of big backs who also have good agility and decide they think they're going to surprise defenders (in seemingly every situation, which no longer makes it a surprise but a tendency...) with a hurdle, spin, or some elusive move rather than dropping the pads and running defenders over.
Although Jones didn't earn 19 touchdowns in 2020, the 10 he earned in 13 games and the three Williams contributed is an indication that the Packers have success running the football. They better, because it is the linchpin of their play-action designs in the passing game.
Dillon has promise as a pass protector based on the film that I studied of him at Boston College. He's also a solid pass catcher and you could see some of it on display last weekend in the snow. If you have time during the offseason and want a feel for what made Dillon an underrated option in the 2020 NFL Draft, this video will show you plenty.
The downside for Dillon if Jones leaves and Williams stays? Williams could see an increased role as the third-down/passing-down back, which could render Dillon to a top-20 floor--and possibly on the low end of that projection.
If Jones stays in town, it's likely Williams will be gone and that could render Dillon a high-end backup who gives you flex production throughout the year, but it will likely be less predictable for fantasy players unless he becomes the sole red-zone option. I doubt this happens because Jones is a good red zone back and size has less to do with red-zone value than vision, pad level, and quick feet. Expect a split with red zone duties, at best.
If both Jones and Williams leave and the Packers either acquire an experienced but aging vet or a vet lacking a starter track record, look for Dillon to earn closer to his top-five ceiling. If the Packers draft backs to replace Jones and Williams, this becomes a bigger wildcard for Dillon's long-term value but as long as the backs were drafted after the third round, it's likely that they won't be leaned on for third-down work, and that favor's Dillon in 2021 as well.
Settle: What a game it was for Dillon last week. Packer’s fans got a taste of what could be in store down the road and are much less worried about Aaron Jones leaving.
He gashed the Titans for more than 100 yards and 2 touchdowns and showed why he was an early draft choice. If Jones leaves, Dillon would easily slot into an RB2 role next season with RB1 potential.
He has shown some issues in pass blocking situations and only has two receptions all season. He has the speed and vision to be a starter in this league and would be running behind a good offensive line. If Jones leaves, I would target Dillon in the fourth or fifth round as my second running back next season.
Parsons: I may have been the biggest fan of A.J. Dillon the prospect before the 2020 NFL Draft. His Week 16 performance was just a matter of time and opportunity as his combination of size, movement, and underrated receiving ability form a rarely seen prospect.
If Jones leaves Green Bay (the Packers should let him considering Dillon's profile and Round 2 investment and the cap savings), Dillon will be the projected 1A back for 2021 with at least 300 touches in his sights. I would project, at worst, something in the RB10-15 range for fantasy under those settings.
If Jones returns (and Jamaal Williams is not retained), Dillon would be a 40-50 percent share of the backfield with Jones. At a minimum, Dillon would be one of the most valuable injury-away backs in all of fantasy if Jones were to miss time. For standalone value, Dillon would be a flex lineup decision with RB1 moments when the Packers choose more of a run-centric approach.
Garda: I think it’s more likely than not that Aaron Jones moves on. Though the front office situation in Green Bay is a little different than in years past, Green Bay isn’t usually the place a running back is going to cash in.
What’s interesting to ponder here is whether Jamaal Williams goes as well, since he is in the last year of his rookie deal and has played well enough to tempt a team into rolling the dice on potential.
If Williams stays you will see a nice training camp battle, but I suspect barring injury Dillon takes over the lead role — it seems pretty obvious to me this year that the team views Williams as a complementary back, though he has performed well.
In which case, I feel you will see Dillon as the lead back here, which makes his floor solid RB2 and his upside a consistent RB1. The difference will be touchdowns, and Aaron Rodgers likes to throw in the red zone. This year that limited Aaron Jones a bit, though in 2019 Jones saw the end zone 16 times.
If Jones stays, the Packers paid him and that means he is the lead back. I would imagine Williams is the odd man out, and Dillon takes over as the No. 2.
Assuming Jones stay healthy, that will limit Dillon a ton, putting his floor at handcuff for Jones GMs, and his ceiling (again barring a Jones injury) at a flex back.
Tough Keeper Choices
Matt Waldman: Choose one from each of the position-based either/or options below and tells us which player you'd keep in a PPR format and why. You should be writing up one QB, one RB, one WR, and one TE.
- Josh Allen or Russell Wilson
- Kyler Murray or Patrick Mahomes II
- Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow
- Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield
- Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger
- Aaron Jones or Ezekiel Elliott
- James Robinson or David Montgomery
- Jonathan Taylor or Clyde Edwards Helaire
- Stefon Diggs or Calvin Ridley
- Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill
- Justin Jefferson or D.K. Metcalf
- A.J. Brown or Terry McLaurin
- Travis Kelce or George Kittle
- T.J. Hockenson or Logan Thomas
- Mike Gesecki or Hunter Henry
- Noah Fant or Evan Engram
Share your choices and rationale.
Garda: At first blush, this Brees-Roethlisberger scenario looks like the sort of choice that has you looking at a long nap and the hope that the choice was a dream, but I actually think despite his age, Brees has at least one more season left while Roethlisberger has looked shot for a couple of years.
I actually thought Roethlisberger should have retired a couple of years back when we all thought he would and while he’s had some really good games, he just looks done at times. The fact that he has thrown at least a pick five games in a row – some of them brutal – leading into last week’s bounce-back game is a concern to me as well.
Meanwhile, Brees was banged up, and definitely had a few stinkers, but he threw plenty of touchdowns, avoided turnovers, and has the tools to bounce back from a shaky year. Yes, it was his second year in a row under 3,000 yards passing, while Roethlisberger will finish just short of 4,000 (he will be benched for Mason Rudolph in Week 17), but in the end, I feel like Brees can get better while Roethlisberger, even with better stats, looks closer to done.
What we have here with Jones versus Elliott is uncertainty vs stability. Jones may or may not be in Green Bay next season, and where he lands is going to impact his value greatly – and there is no guarantee it will be a good thing.
Meanwhile, Elliott almost topped 1,000 yards in a season where he was banged up, his quarterback was lost for the season early and his offense was shaky at best. We expect all of those things to be better next year, so as much as I love Jones, I have to go with Elliott.
His situation is set and will stabilize and we know what he can do when everyone is healthy. Jones is a really good back, but where he lands makes his value more cloudy.
I took the Diggs-Ridley choice because I love a challenge and this is definitely one. On the one hand, you have Diggs, who is completing his third 1000 yard season in a row, though he has (as of this writing) not cracked double-digit touchdowns in his career. He has a young quarterback who is just coming into his own, and the two are definitely in sync.
On the other hand, you have a dynamic playmaker coming off his fourth game in a row over 100 yards who is taking over the top role in an offense that helped make Julio Jones a top fantasy player. However, it looks a lot like Matt Ryan is on the downside of his career and the team may be about to rebuild which would likely hurt Ridley’s value, though he would absolutely remain the top option.
Ultimately, I think Ridley is the better player, but I like the uncertainty of his situation less, so I would lean into Diggs, who along with Josh Allen, looks poised to continue great things in Buffalo.
As for Kelce-Kittle, Kelce has been the top fantasy tight end four out of the last six seasons, and just finished his fifth season in a row with over 1,000 yards (topping 1,400 for the first time this year). He’s been healthy, his quarterback is set (and also Patrick Mahomes II) and two out of the last three years he has had double-digit touchdowns.
Don’t get me wrong, there is a lot to like about Kittle, who was kept from a third 1,000-yard season in a row by injury. That said, his touchdowns have peaked at five so far and not only does he lack Patrick Mahomes II under center, the word out of San Francisco is they might move on from Jimmy Garoppolo. Which makes his situation more tenuous and unknown.
Since we are talking about already top tight end talents, it’s a no-brainer to me to stick with Kelce and assume he will have another top Fantasy TE season in 2021.
Waldman: I'll roll with Stafford over Mayfield. The Browns' quarterback has shown some noticeable improvement from the pocket and with his accuracy but from what I've seen, this offense is built to protect him more than support him as the team's lead producer. It doesn't mean when this offense is clicking and playing defenses with notable weaknesses that Mayfield can't have big weeks, but I don't believe it's designed for it to be the norm.
Stafford has always been playing with some sort of limiting factor: A lack of supporting talent beyond Calvin Johnson, injuries to himself and his support group, bad offensive lines, underperforming schemes, etc. Even so, he has performed better than his numbers suggest and he has high-end talent when healthy.
Whether he can stay healthy is a big question, but if I'm going to take a chance on either player, I'd rather ride with Stafford and the chance he gets hurt than a mediocre producer in Mayfield who can have 4-5 big weeks, 3-5 awful weeks, and potentially still not be the answer the Browns are seeking long-term.
I'll also take Elliott over Jones, as hard of a decision as it is because Jones is such a great talent. But despite whatever disorder some Cowboys fans have about trashing Elliott, he remains a top talent hamstrung by injuries to Dak Prescott and his offensive line. I think Prescott will be back and if he isn't, we'll see the hometown kid Stafford get a chance to work with top-notch weapons and that will mean the 26-year-old Elliott (at that point) will be in the running for another top-five season.
I'll also roll with James Robinson despite my admiration for what I saw with David Montgomery during the second half of the season. This is one I vacillate on daily because I think Montgomery has figured out the speed of the game and how to work to his strengths as a runner.
Still, I'm a fan of Robinson's efficiency as a runner and that's the narrow difference between the two.
I think the monster year for A.J. Brown is coming because as much as I am not rooting for Derrick Henry to get hurt, running backs suffer injuries, and Henry has been durable for most of his NFL career and seen a lot of touches. If that Henry injury occurs, Brown could earn a season of getting force-fed the ball.
If not, and I hope not, Brown still has upside in terms of how the Titans can move him around and get the most from him when Corey Davis leaves town.
I'll take Adams over Hill and that's another tough call, but it comes down to the rapport that Adams and Aaron Rodgers have and the lack of top receiving talent on the Packers relative to the Chiefs as of present. It could shift if the Packers acquire a top free agent in 2021 or draft a dynamic rookie.
And here's one that may get your blood pumping: Give me Kelce in PPR formats over every receiver vs receiver option on this list, including Adams. I realize this may be Kelce's best year ever and he could have nowhere to go but down, but I think three straight seasons of at least 97 catches, 1,200 yards, and 5 touchdowns supports the notion that in the Chiefs offense, he is an elite fantasy wide receiver.
This is a better three-year output than what we've seen from Adams or Diggs, who are the only options who've had more than three years in the league and even remotely come close to Kelce for even a two-year period.
I know this wasn't the question, but I thought I'd expand on it.
Hindery: Keeping Josh Allen over Russell Wilson is the easiest decision on this list and who would have thought we’d be saying that after how hot Wilson was to start the season. Through 11 weeks, Allen and Wilson were putting up similar fantasy stats with Wilson outscoring Allen by about one PPG.
In the last five games, Allen and Wilson’s seasons have rocketed in different directions. Allen has been the QB1 by a good margin down the stretch, averaging just under 31 fantasy PPG in his last five.
Over the same stretch, Wilson has been just the QB17, averaging just under 20 fantasy PPG. Given how they have finished up and the trajectory Allen appears to be on, it is impossible to recommend Wilson over Allen.
Digging deeper into the stats only confirms that recommendation. Allen, at age 24, has already thrown for more passing yards this season than Wilson has in any of his nine seasons. The rushing gap between the two is even more pronounced. Allen already has more career rushing touchdowns (25) than Wilson), despite the eight-year age gap.
You have to keep Taylor over Edwards-Helaire given what we have seen from these two offenses this season. I mentioned above my two-step process to take when looking at backfields for fantasy purposes.
First, look at the total pie for the backfield and then try to figure out how to split that up. It is the size of the pie where Taylor stands out way above Edwards-Helaire. The Colts backs have scored 558 PPR fantasy points this season while the Chiefs backs have scored just 295.
One of the biggest surprises of the 2020 season for me was the lack of production from the Chiefs backfield, largely due to scoring very few touchdowns. Prior to 2020, the Chiefs backfield had averaged about 20 total touchdowns per season under Andy Reid but have scored just 8 this year, despite being one of the league’s most prolific offenses.
I think you can expect some positive regression there in 2021 and feel good about Edwards-Helaire’s share of the pie (60 percent even after missing a couple of games) but even with those assumptions, it is clear that the Colts offense is much more RB-centric than the Chiefs is and Taylor will have more chances to rack up fantasy points than Edwards-Helaire.
For my money, these are two of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. With similar talents, the situation can become an easy tie-breaker. For 2021, there is much more certainty about the Bills offense than there is the Falcons offense.
Allen has emerged as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks at age 24. There is no question he will be back at the helm next year with Diggs as the clear top target. Ridley may have to compete with Julio Jones for the lead role in Atlanta.
Even more worrisome is the quarterback situation. Matt Ryan, who turns 36-years old in May, was just okay in 2020. After a third straight losing season, the Falcons have to be thinking about whether Ryan is the guy who can get them over the top.
Atlanta could end up with a top-five pick in the NFL Draft and may start looking to the future by drafting a young quarterback. Starting fresh with a promising young quarterback like Justin Fields may be a tempting proposition, especially with Ryan carrying a cap hit of almost $41 million for 2021.
In 2020, Fant and Engram have almost identical numbers despite Fant playing in one fewer game. Both have similar floors for 2021, 60 catches, and 600 receiving yards assuming relatively healthy seasons.
However, Fant clearly has more upside. Engram will be going into his fifth season and his career trajectory has not been positive. He has been fine but not a real impact player and will be entering his age-27 season in 2021.
Tight ends break out later than any other position but as each year passes, odds of Engram emerging as a star decrease. Meanwhile, Fant just turned 23-years old in November.
Over the last two weeks, he has 14 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown and is at least showing flashes of elite ability. It is a lot easier to imagine Fant having a true breakout as a 23-year old in 2021 than it is for the older Engram.
Parsons: I am a fan of Murray's two-way game, plus the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins to insulate Murray's weaponry in Arizona. However, keeping Murray over Mahomes is being too cute with profiles.
Mahomes' three years as an NFL starter have resulted in QB1, QB3, and QB1 finishes. Kyler Murray was a breakout in 2020, but at QB5. We may look back in 2-3 years and view Murray as one of the strong producers over the stretch, but Mahomes is a historically strong and consistent performer locked in with a coach, WR1, and TE1 to be surprised by anything less than dominant results.
Ezekiel Elliott had a down year in 2020. Period. However, the prism of an Elliott down year is different from other running backs. Elliott was RB15 in aPPG in my measures (which accounts for missed games and aggregate impact in a blended approach). This after four straight top-6 seasons to begin his career.
Also, the loss of Dak Prescott produced a systemic Dallas downturn after Week 4 for all applicable parties, including Elliott to beyond RB30 for the rest of the season. However, Elliott is a historically strong player at his position and I expect a strong rebound (plus Prescott back) in 2021.
Flip to Aaron Jones and choosing him would be betting on an upcoming free agent who is either changing teams (generally not a positive sign for Y+1 production to be equal or better than the previous one) or sticking in Green Back with a legit challenger in A.J. Dillon next season. Day 3 running backs are flimsy historical bets to maintain their production, even if successful like Jones, from early in their career compared to the more durable Rounds 1-3 backs.
Outside of a perfect storm outcome, I would project success for Jones over the next 1-2 seasons being in the RB2 zone rather than RB1, were through five seasons that has been Elliott's worst-case perfect storm where a chunk of the year was with his starting quarterback.
For the record, I really like McLaurin's chances to uptick once Washington sees a meaningful quarterback upgrade. Will that be in 2021? It is a variable that clouds McLaurin's situation. Also, McLaurin has had minimal WR2+ presence in the offense as competition for targets. Flip to A.J. Brown and he has Ryan Tannehill locked in for 2021+ and Corey Davis plus Jonnu Smith are notable free agents who could be leaving the passing game.
Betting on profiles and anyone versus Kelce for 2021 would be a decent one-year underdog. Kelce has finished as the TE1 three straight seasons and TE2 twice immediately preceding those. A pairing with Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid insulates Kelce to such a degree where it is Kelce versus the field like the in-his-prime Tiger Woods type dominance for a fair bet. Kittle is a quality bounce-back bet for 2021 with a healthy stretch and (hopefully) a quarterback upgrade, but Kittle is still part of 'the field' where the smart money is on Kelce.
Settle: If I had the decision between Herbert or Burrow it would be a pretty easy one. Herbert would get the nod over Burrow not just because of the injury, but because of how he played.
He was able to perform without Austin Ekeler and led successful game-winning drives while Burrow was racking up yards in garbage time before he got hurt. If we also take into account the injury to Burrow and not knowing how his knee is going to heal, the decision becomes even easier.
The Bengals have a tall task ahead of them to fix that offensive line and that is not something I would want to count on along with rehab and injury recovery from a catastrophic knee injury. If you have the choice, go with Herbert without a second thought.
Jonathan Taylor finally started playing like the running back we all saw in college down the stretch. He is in an offense that likes to run the ball and play tough defense to grind out the clock and wear down opponents.
On the flip side, the Chiefs love to throw the ball and use all of their other weapons, aside from Clyde Edwards Helaire. I did not believe he should be a top-10 fantasy pick this season and am glad I did not take him anywhere.
The Chiefs seemed to have an aversion to using him and wanted to feature Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce above all else. While the Chiefs offense may be the highest scoring in the league, Taylor fits the scheme and has a coaching staff that wants to use him with the Colts. I would keep Taylor over Helaire and not lose any sleep over it.
If given the choice between Diggs and Ridley, I am keeping Diggs every time. I would have still made this choice even before he blew up against the Patriots on Monday Night Football and the reasoning is simple; Diggs does not have Julio Jones on the same team taking away targets.
Ridley is a great talent and will be productive for a long time, but he will always be second to Jones on that team. Throw in that Matt Ryan is aging, and Josh Allen is having MVP type seasons and the decision becomes even easier.
Diggs was not the problem in Minnesota, their offensive scheme was. The Bills have no problem feeding him the ball and it has paid off with their first division crown since the 90s. If you have the choice, roll with Diggs.
Unfortunately, I had the misery of both Fant and Engram on my fantasy team this year and never quite seemed to be able to pick the right one from week to week. However, I would absolutely keep Fant over Engram going into next year.
He is the more athletic tight end that is playing in the better offense right now. For as much as Drew Lock loves to throw deep down the field, the coaching staff also calls easy roll out plays that he dumps to his tight ends for big chunk plays.
Fant will be healthy next year and I have projected as a top-eight tight end by the end of the year. If you miss out on the Kelce, Kittle, and Waller’s of the draft Fant is a great consolation prize to have on your team.