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If You're Drafting Tonight

Dan Hindery's If You're Drafting Tonight
By Dan Hindery, August 31, 2020

If You're Drafting Tonight
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are now 10 days from the kickoff of Week 1. It is officially draft season. While the previous installments of this article (last week and two weeks ago) focused primarily on best ball drafts, this week we will also turn our focus to regular season-long drafts. While the focus of this article is not best ball, we will make note of today’s ADP from Underdog Fantasy’s best ball drafts because it is the most up to date possible. If you are drafting this tonight, you need to know the absolute latest on where this week’s risers and fallers are likely to go.

The goal here is to provide:

1. A quick overview of how 2020 drafts are stacking up so even those who have not been following along closely all summer can draft with confidence;

2. A summary of all of the biggest pieces of news from recent days that everyone, no matter the amount of previous prep work, needs to be aware of before drafting tonight.

To accomplish those goals, we will go round-by-round through the early part of the draft highlighting all of the high impact player news you need to know. The focus will be on the biggest decisions you will face in each round. Lastly, we will highlight some later-round targets and the late-breaking news that should help you uncover draft bargains.

The first round

2020 draft strategy is highly dependent upon what spot you pick from. Picking at the top of the round is pretty straight forward but the decisions in the middle and late part of the first round are difficult

The Top Four

Almost all 2020 draft start with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara as the top four. Typically, in that exact order. This is the same top four we had last year and a group of proven performers. When you take into account these four players’ elite talent, healthy offensive roles, relative lack of injury concerns, and the positional scarcity of the running back position, each of these four backs has everything going for them. Do not overthink it. If you are lucky enough to land a top-four pick, lock in one of these proven, high-ceiling, high-floor RB1s.

Pick 5 and beyond: things get interesting

After the top four are gone, the choices get much tougher. No two drafts look alike because everyone seems to have these players ranked a little bit differently. Plus, because they all rank similarly, the details of your league’s scoring should play a big role in who you want to target.

The two elite wide receivers

In full PPR scoring, it is hard to go wrong with Michael Thomas. His floor is incredibly high and we saw what his ceiling looked like last year (149 catches for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns).

Davante Adams is a strong 1B at the wide receiver position in 2020. While most teams have started to spread the ball around more between top targets, Green Bay should be one of the few exceptions. As long as Adams stays healthy, he should average well over 10 targets per game. He is a good target in the mid-late first round in all formats and is worth targeting as high as 1.07 in full PPR leagues.

First-round running backs

The running back picture after the top four is cloudy. Scoring format and your personal tolerance for risk are key factors to consider.

Standard scoring stud

In non-PPR, Derrick Henry is still an easy choice in the middle of the first round. The fact he has averaged 16.5 catches per season over the past two years doesn’t hurt you in that format. In PPR, Henry’s upside is a bit more limited. In full PPR scoring, Henry is still a worthwhile first-round target but makes more sense in the back half of the round behind the top two wide receivers and a couple of the potential PPR studs we are about to discuss.

Holdout Concerns

Decisions in this part of the draft were made more difficult this week with Adam Schefter throwing up the red flag on Dalvin Cook.

Holdout concerns are growing where Joe Mixon is concerned, as well.

Both the Bengals and Vikings are teams that seem to value the running back position. Neither Cook nor Mixon falls into the “Do Not Draft” category at this point. However, it makes sense to drop them to the bottom of their current tiers. At the very least, we can use the contract uncertainty to break ties. Cook was typically going in the Top 5 overall, so he only drops a few spots if you are willing to deal with the outside chance he misses a few games. Mixon was already in a tightly bunched group of backs going in the 10-15 range. To be safe, drop him to the top of the second if you are drafting before we get any clarity on his contract situation.

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The Wild Card

One of the hottest names in fantasy drafts right now is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He rarely makes it out of the Top 6 overall in recent drafts. He belongs in that range, especially in full PPR scoring. Edwards-Helaire has earned rave reviews for his receiving ability. The consensus amongst Footballguys projectors gives Edwards-Helaire 57.5 receptions, which makes sense as a median number. However, there is a realistic chance Edwards-Helaire blows past that number. Given his dynamism as a pass-catcher, something like Austin Ekeler’s 92-993-8 receiving line in 2019 is not a crazy upside projection for Edwards-Helaire. He could wear out single coverage while opposing safeties are worried about Mahomes throwing it over their heads to Tyreek Hill.

You need to ask yourself how willing you are to take on a little bit of added risk. Drafting any rookie this high comes with some downside. However, given how great the Chiefs offense is and the fact that Edwards-Helaire has locked down the lead role, the risk is not as high as many might assume. League-winning upside and a high floor (especially in PPR scoring) make Edwards-Helaire a prime target for savvy drafters in the mid-1st round. If he makes it to the late-1st round, sprint to the podium.

The other first-round running backs

Miles Sanders is dealing with a minor injury but is primed for a huge workload in Philadelphia. He is especially attractive in PPR leagues given he caught 50 passes as a rookie.

Josh Jacobs may be the safest pick in the late first round. There are questions about how many passes he will catch (he says 60) but no doubt he is going to be a workhorse runner behind an underrated offensive line.

Kenyan Drake was a Top Five running back in the second half of 2019 after landing in Arizona in a midseason trade. He looks poised to pick up where he left off.

Round 2

Running backs and tight ends

In the early part of the second round, you should still be looking at many of the guys we discussed as a strong option in the first round. There typically is not room for all of Mixon, Sanders, Jacobs, and Drake in the first round.

Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and James Conner are also prime running back options in the second round. Given the drop off at the position in the following rounds, make these players a priority. Ekeler is more attractive in PPR scoring while Chubb projects best in standard scoring. Conner continues to be a hot name. The days of getting him in the late third round (two weeks ago) are over. He is now a staple of drafts in the mid-to-late second round.

Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins lead the second tier at the wide receiver position. The drop off from round two to round three is bigger at running back than it is at wide receiver. Weigh whether the upside of these three special talents is enough to pass on adding one of the few true workhorse backs available.

Is it worth drafting a Quarterback or Tight End?

Quarterback and tight end are both very deep this year. It is easy to wait at either position. If there is a running back you are fully sold on while on the clock in the second round, that is the way to go considering how positional depth stacks up this year. However, if you are not 100% sold, do not pass up an elite player like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, George Kittle, or Travis Kelce by overemphasizing positional value.

Based upon reports from camp, everything is lining up for these four to have big seasons. In Kansas City, the offense has been humming in practice. It would not be a big surprise if Mahomes and the Chiefs approach the insane numbers produced in 2018. Remember, the last time we saw this offense was when it went and averaged 39 points per game in the playoffs. You absolutely need “something special” if you are going to invest a premium pick on a player that plays at a non-premium fantasy position. Mahomes and Kelce clearly have the potential to be something special.

George Kittle has already broken out with back-to-back big seasons. However, we may not have seen his full ceiling yet. Kittle is dealing with a minor hamstring injury but is actually healthier than the 49ers other top pass-catching options. You can draft him with confidence in round two.

It is easy to see the upside in drafting Lamar Jackson in the second round given what he achieved last season. In addition to the unmatched edge Jackson’s legs provide, he has also shown signs of improvement on deep passes in camp. He has been hooking up on deep balls to Marquise Brown every day. Chunk passing plays could lead to a big boost in Jackson’s passing yardage totals.

Rounds 3 and 4: Searching for upside

The focus for most drafters this season is to secure at least a pair of starting running backs early. Anyone who did not start the draft RB-RB in the first two rounds will be desperate to add their RB2. Be careful. There are a lot of potential land mines amongst the running back options in this part of the draft.

Early round do not Drafts

-Things are already getting ugly between LeVeon Bell and Adam Gase.

-Leonard Fournette was cut this morning by Jacksonville. Do not draft him before the final rounds.

-Melvin Gordon has not yet separated from Phillip Lindsay and may end up in a timeshare.

Early round players to target

Chris Carson

The #letrusscook movement can easily be seen as a negative for Carson and is probably perceived as such by most. However, the Seahawks opening up the offense earlier in games could be just what Carson needs to unlock his full fantasy potential. Carson has had to make a lot of his own yards in recent years due to the predictability of the offense. The slow starts have also led to fewer comfortable fourth-quarter leads, which have robbed Carson of time in the four-minute offense. Seattle is 57-0, including playoffs, since 2012 when it goes into halftime with a lead of four points or more.

Most of the running backs going off the board in the third and fourth-round play in offenses with questionable upside (Jets, Jaguars, Broncos, Colts, etc.). Meanwhile, the Seahawks could realistically emerge as a team that averages 30-PPG if Wilson has a career year. Due to this, Carson looks like the top target outside of the first couple of rounds.

DK Metcalf

Sticking with Seattle, Metcalf is one of the players in this part of the draft (he is typically going in the late-fourth round) with the most upside. Playoffs included, Metcalf had 69 catches for 1,119 yards and 8 touchdowns as a 21-year old rookie. Aside from Julio Jones, Metcalf may be the most impressive size-speed receiver in the league.

If we assume Metcalf’s rookie numbers as his floor, he is not much riskier than any of the other receivers in this range (especially in non-PPR or 0.5 PPR). The realistic upside is amongst the highest of this tier, which makes him a strong player to target in the fourth round.

Terry McLaurin

McLaurin remains one of the clearest upside plays in the fourth round of 2020 drafts. He put up good numbers as a rookie in an awful offense in 2019. With the typical second-year leap and any improvement from the Washington offense, McLaurin could smash his ADP.

In Footballguys’ plant your flag series, Ryan Hester made a great case for McLaurin:

Terry McLaurin sees over 30% of Washington's targets. He turns in a relatively inefficient season because of who they're coming from but still finishes as a WR1 in all formats. Look no further than Allen Robinson's 2019 for a comparison to what McLaurin can do. Robinson saw 153 targets (mostly from Mitchell Trubisky) and caught 98 passes for 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns. His 254.9 PPR points made him the overall WR8 last year. Robinson's target market share was 27%.

As a team, Washington attempted 477 passes last year. 30% of that number would yield 143 targets for McLaurin -- within the range of Robinson's 2019 number. If Washington's volume increases to over 500 attempts, McLaurin's floor and ceiling go with it.

Rounds 5 through 7

Wide Receiver Depth

The wide receiver depth extends deep into the sixth round this year. It makes sense to reserve a couple picks in this range for wide receivers. The great thing about 2020 is that there are not just a few intriguing targets, there are more than a dozen. Just look at some of these names going in the 5th round or later right now:

D.J. Chark

Chark broke out with a 1,000-yard season as a 22-year old last season. He is the clear #1 in Jacksonville and has a nice rapport with gunslinger Gardner Minshew.

Courtland Sutton

With Sutton, we have yet another emerging young player coming off of a 1,000+ yard season. He caught 72 passes for 1,112 passes and 6 touchdowns last season with Joe Flacco throwing him passes much of the year. If Drew Lock takes a step forward in his seance season, Sutton has WR1 upside.

DeVante Parker

Parker had his breakout year in 2019 with 72 catches for 1,202 yards and 9 touchdowns. Camp reports show he is set to pick up right where he left off from his hot finish.

Marquise Brown

We noted above when discussing Lamar Jackson that Brown has been catching deep bombs on a daily basis in Ravens camp. Fully healthy and sporting 20 pounds of added muscle, Brown is an obvious breakout candidate.

Will Fuller

Deshaun Watson is more than talented enough to push his WR1 to fantasy WR1 status. To hear Watson tell it, his WR1 this year is clearly Will Fuller.

A.J. Green

A minor hamstring tweak for Green has kept Green’s ADP from rising. There is some injury risk but Green is amongst the handful of most talented receivers in the NFL. With Joe Burrow expected to make a big impact as a rookie, Green could give you WR1 production at a 6th round price tag.

Where to take David Montgomery

There have been surprisingly few serious injuries to running backs in camp. The only starter who looks unlikely to be on the field Week 1 is David Montgomery. He suffered a groin injury in camp this week and could be out until late September. It is hard to draft Montgomery as an RB2 given the injury and his shaky performance last season. However, if he slides to the 6th round or later, taking a risk on Montgomery could pay off big. He has reportedly looked much improved after losing weight in the offseason. He makes for a great RB3 target who will be ready to make an impact in October and beyond.

Late Round Targets

Desean Jackson

Jalen Reagor had been stealing all of the headlines for the Eagles but he is going to be out for some time with a shoulder injury.

Jackson was already going to be a big part of the offense. With Reagor’s setback, he should take on an even larger role.

Preston Williams

Williams has been making highlight grabs on a daily basis in camp for the Dolphins. He is a prime candidate for a second-year breakout and unlike many others in this category (Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, etc.), Williams can still be had in the 10th round or later.

Austin Hooper

Tight end is very deep this year. You can make a case for Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson, Blake Jarwin, Hayden Hurst, and others as strong targets if you wait at the position. However, the best combination of floor and ceiling belongs to Hooper. He was the #1 overall fantasy tight end at the midway point of last season before getting injured. Hooper has been turning heads in camp for the Browns.

Joe Burrow

The Bengals pass defense is in a bad way after losing at least one starting cornerback. Expect Cincinnati to be in some high scoring games. Burrow has the weapons at his disposal to instantly emerge as a fantasy star.

Jerry Jeudy

In our Plant Your Flag series this week, I made the case for Jeudy as the top wide receiver in drafts right now given his current 11th round ADP:

Jeudy will easily outperform his WR54 ADP. He is just too talented, polished, and mature not to make a major impact as a rookie.

Jeudy will be especially valuable when it matters most for our fantasy teams -- Weeks 14, 15, and 16. By the end of the year, I expect Jeudy will have already emerged as a solid fantasy WR2 option and predict he has at least one huge fantasy playoff performance that helps you win your championship.

There may be some concern that the abbreviated offseason could cause slow starts for some rookies. I do not fully buy that argument but even if I did, it would not matter much because player performances in each week of the fantasy playoffs are many times more valuable than any week of the regular season. This is when I expect the rookie wide receivers to shine. From Week 14 to Week 16 last season, 5 of the top 21 receivers were rookies. Even more impressively, three of the top seven wide receivers in the 2019 fantasy playoffs were rookies. I think we see the same thing happen in 2020.

Bryan Edwards

With Tyrell Williams suffering a shoulder injury, Edwards has an opening to enter the starting lineup. Once he does, it will be hard to put him back on the bench if the reporting from training camp is any indication.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags strategy Davante Adams Saquon Barkley Le'Veon Bell Marquise Brown Joe Burrow Chris Carson Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr James Conner Dalvin Cook Kenyan Drake Bryan Edwards Clyde Edwards-Helaire Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Joe Flacco Leonard Fournette Will Fuller V Mike Gesicki Melvin Gordon III A.J. Green Derrick Henry Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins Hayden Hurst Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Blake Jarwin Jerry Jeudy Diontae Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce George Kittle Phillip Lindsay Drew Lock Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Gardner Minshew Joe Mixon David Montgomery DeVante Parker Jalen Reagor Allen Robinson II Miles Sanders Courtland Sutton Michael Thomas Mitch Trubisky Deshaun Watson Preston Williams Tyrell Williams

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