The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
They gave us 30 names. That's a lot.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are the five players who received the most votes:
- DeAndre Hopkins - 6 votes
- Odell Beckham - 5 votes
- Cooper Kupp - 4 votes
- Keenan Allen - 3 votes
- Will Fuller - 3 votes
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona
Sigmund Bloom: The history of wide receivers production in the year after they change teams isn't pretty, and Hopkins didn't have the benefit of an offseason with his new teammates. He could still be very productive by NFL standards, but his previous output was based on an outsized target share with Deshaun Watson that is unlikely to be reproduced in Arizona. He's not worth an early pick with such a deep group at wide receiver in fantasy drafts this year.
Jeff Haseley: I have reservations about DeAndre Hopkins on a new team, with a new quarterback, on a new offense. Yes, he has performed well with much lesser quarterbacks, but I have a strange feeling that he could struggle with so many factors against him that weren't an issue before. I'd rather have Michael Thomas, Davante Adams ahead of Hopkins. Or, I skip wide receiver in the first round altogether because there are countless options at the position a round or two later.
Ryan Hester: This isn’t entirely about Hopkins. He’ll have a big year and be the most targeted player on a fast-paced offense. But he’s joining a new team in a pandemic-altered preseason. And the opportunity cost of picking Hopkins is missing out on a top-10 running back. Positional scarcity suggests the value drop-off is steeper at running back than receiver this year, which makes Hopkins a pick with little margin for error.
Justin Howe: Fade Hopkins at your own risk; he's still a dominant pass-catcher and moves laterally into another exciting offense. Still, while he's a rock-solid fantasy WR1, his upside may not actually reach the public's opinion of it. The Arizona offense was intriguing last year, but it wasn't exactly high-volume (22nd in plays). Not to mention, Kliff Kingsbury's spread attack keeps three (sometimes four) wideouts field-relevant at once. We've likely already seen Hopkins' peak as a 100-catch dominator, so he'll be relying on major efficiency to threaten the top fantasy tier. And this horizontal offense doesn't help his chances of chasing 1,500 yards and 10+ touchdowns.
Chad Parsons: Hopkins has dominated targets and been attached to an already-elite quarterback in Houston. Still priced at a sky-high level for 2020, Hopkins has far more risk than previous years. Kyler Murray may be an elite quarterback, but it is a variable after his promising 2019. The competition for targets is higher than in Houston with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk more sturdy options than the ancillary pieces with the Texans. There are thin margins in the elite receiver tier and Hopkins is worth fading at his cost in 2020 drafts.
Matt Waldman: Hopkins' addition in Arizona is awesome news for the Cardinals passing game, but I'm not convinced it's awesome news for those planning on drafting Hopkins this summer. Kyler Murray earned 3,722 passing yards last year and likely spread the ball around by necessity--or did he? A closer examination of Kliff Kingsbury's offensive scheme reveals "the spread" is as much of a strategy as it is a name. This is more of a horizontal passing game than it is a vertical scheme and when you examine the vertical options in that passing game, the players who appear to be the best match for that role are Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. I expect Hopkins to generate 110-120 targets, close to 100 receptions, and over 1,000 yards but at a yards-per-catch average that's on par with his 2019 season--his lowest season average to date--based on the scheme. The projected targets will also be Hopkins' lowest total in six seasons because Houston made him a target hog that he won't be in Arizona. Hopkins is an elite talent, but he's not in an offense that will lead to elite individual production.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Odell Beckham, Cleveland
Andrew Davenport: The Beckham that played in Cleveland last year wasn't the same one fantasy owners saw in New York. It sounds as if his injury was a concern, so that's something to take into consideration, but after looking like one of the best receivers in the league with the Giants he was ordinary in 2019. In his five seasons with New York, he played 59 games and his 16-game average during those games was 105 receptions, 1,472 yards, and 12 touchdowns. But then last year with Baker Mayfield, Freddie Kitchens, and the injury, he fell off to 74/1,035/4. That is a marked contrast and there is nothing to indicate that this problem will get better in 2020. The arrival of Kevin Stefanski has rumors of a strong running game circulating, and his track record in Minnesota does nothing to dispel those narratives. On top of that, the Browns brought in Austin Hooper to strengthen the pass-catching options, and while they didn't play like it last year, Cleveland has plenty of talented players who they can use on offense. There is likely to be a more efficient offense in place in Cleveland because of the coaching change, but it's probably not going to be a high volume passing attack. After a PPR WR25 finish last season there is no indication that Beckham is set up for an increase in his role this year. His current ADP means he is being overdrafted off of his New York numbers and he should be left for someone else to try and recapture that magic.
Ryan Hester: Coming off a disappointing year in which he was out produced by his lower-drafted teammate, one might think that Beckham’s ADP would have dropped to the point that he could be a value. But Beckham has a new system to learn and additional targets in the offense to compete with. Add to that the fact that Beckham hasn’t appeared very excited about playing football the last year so or (including this offseason when he made comments around the way the NFL is handling COVID-19), and he’s drama that I like to avoid having on my fantasy team.
Justin Howe: Beckham carries tons of name value, and many are targeting him in Rounds 2 and 3 on that alone. But we're actually 4 years removed from his last season of 1,100+ yards or 7+ touchdowns. In last year's Browns debut, Beckham played a full season He topped 100 yards only once, and it was discouraging to see him score just twice in the red zone. It's hard to see room for expansion as the Browns look poised to lean even more on their ground game in 2020. It would take a mountainous leap in several efficiency measures for Beckham to overcome all of these knocks. Even at his ceiling, a WR1 finish just doesn't look projectable.
Matt Waldman: There's a lot to love about Beckham's talent, and the Browns' rushing attack should generate terrific play-action opportunities for Baker Mayfield to target an open Beckham for big plays. The offense also generates a lower ceiling for the passing game because the run-heavy attack will limit the passing volume that used to be the focal point. If you look into the Vikings scheme from 2019, you'll also notice a significant number of plays where the offense placed only one wide receiver on the field. While Beckham is a decent blocker, Jarvis Landry is among the best blockers in the game and most likely earns that single-receiver role when the Browns roll with three tight ends or two tight ends and fullback Andy Janovich. Beckham still has a ceiling of 1,100-1,200 yards and 8-12 scores, but trusting Mayfield to be this efficient after learning his third scheme in three years is too optimistic. Beckham should earn 1,000 yards and 5-7 scores. Good but not great.
Jason Wood: Odell Beckham had another 1,000-yard season; his fifth in six seasons. Yet, he finished 31st among fantasy receivers thanks for just four touchdown catches. It's been a tale of two careers for Beckham. He was one of the most productive pass catchers in NFL history through his first three years and finished WR5, WR5, and WR4. He was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In the next three seasons, he's finished WR82, WR16, and WR31. Optimists claim Beckham wasn't healthy last year, and believe he's a clean bill of health away from returning to All-Pro form. While that may be true if he wasn't healthy last year, why would we assume he'll ever be healthy? That's three straight years of performance-hampering maladies. Add to that a lack of chemistry with Baker Mayfield, questions about Mayfield's own value, and a new coaching staff with a propensity for a ball-control, ground attack, and Beckham isn't worth drafting as your No. 1.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
Sigmund Bloom: Kupp's 2019 was a tale of two seasons, one where he was a strong WR1 when the Rams ran more three-wide sets, and one where he was a WR3 kept afloat by touchdowns. The Rams offense is going to have multiple identities, but they will probably lean more towards the second half blueprint than the first half. They haven't extended Kupp heading into a walk year, and they spent a second-round pick on his possible replacement, Van Jefferson. The arrow is pointing down.
Andrew Davenport: What an odd year for Kupp in 2019. He was one of the best draft values of the entire league at the halfway point of the season. When the Rams went on their Week 9 bye Kupp was the WR3 in points per game with 21 per contest. After their bye, something definitely changed in the Rams' offense. Kupp's snap shares fell, and where he had averaged 86% of offensive plays before the bye, he averaged 75% the final eight games. The more interesting number, though, is his average when all of the Rams receivers were on the field. Both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks missed one game together, and Cooks missed Week 11. So when all three played from Weeks 12-17 Kupp's snap count fell even more to 68% of the offensive plays. His fantasy production took a precipitous fall as well as he went from PPR WR3 in the first half to WR30 with 12.9 points per game in the second. The worst part of that average is that he scored in FIVE straight games to end the season! It is no lock that the Rams will curb Kupp's snap share similarly in 2020, but where he is being drafted assumes he's going to be involved more than he was after last year's bye. Let someone else take that gamble at his ADP.
Justin Howe: Kupp is easy to root for as a tough, technical, and deceptively versatile weapon. He's a bull out of the slot - as well as one of the league's most dependable red-zone threats. And he opened 2019 as the fantasy WR2 through 8 weeks, which can't be ignored. But it was frightening to see him slip so far after the Rams' Week 9 bye. His target share plummeted from 28% to 15%, and only a 4-game touchdown streak kept him a WR3 from then on. The biggest culprit was the team's expanded use of double-tight packages; Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett make for a fantastic duo, and they'll limit the Rams' need for multiple wideouts for long stretches. Kupp decisively lost that battle to Robert Woods down the stretch, and even if we project a healthy bounceback, it's hard to find any path to another 94 receptions. Kupp may not be usable as a plug-and-play WR2, which is where he's consistently being drafted.
Matt Waldman: Kupp will take a small hit in targets and yardage because of an expected increase with the Rams' usage of two-tight end sets. Even so, expect Kupp to earn playing time as the flanker and then moved to the slot when the Rams use three- and four-receiver sets. There is some concern about Kupp's 2019 data against press coverage but from my film observations, Kupp has been an excellent performer against pressure since his years at Eastern Washington. With a larger sample size, I expect him to fare better in 2020. Still, I'm projecting that the change in offensive tendency will cost Kupp almost a target per game and, as a result, 200 yards and 3 touchdowns from his 2019 totals. This drops him from top-10 production at his position to mid-range WR3 in fantasy.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Phil Alexander: Allen lacks his usual target ceiling in Anthony Lynn and Tyrod Taylor's presumed run-heavy offense. He also hasn't exceeded six touchdowns in a season since 2013 and has to compete for end zone looks with efficient touchdown producers Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler. Click here for a deeper dive into why Allen might be the biggest value trap in all of fantasy football this year.
Sigmund Bloom: Allen is still one of the best in the game, but it is difficult to bet the over on his fantasy expectations this year because he'll be playing Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert at quarterback. The Chargers pass offense won't be timing-based and Taylor isn't known for getting the ball out quickly as a passer, so Allen's separation skills might be squandered in what should be a conservative passing attack. Even with a discount from last year's price, Allen isn't worth the cost.
Andrew Davenport: Allen has struggled most of his career to gain respect with fantasy owners for his fantasy potential. But in 2020 those whispers might actually be true. There is no way to know how the Chargers offense will look with the changes at quarterback, but one thing is clear - there is ample risk. Former quarterback Philip Rivers favored Allen when he was on the field, forcing him almost 149 targets per year the last three years they spent together. It isn't likely he'll see that big of a number this year, and those targets are going to be of poorer quality as well. In fact, if the Chargers go with the rookie at some point this season, there is a real chance that the WR2 Allen is being drafted as will turn into nothing more than a replacement-level player. Avoid him at his current ADP.
Will Fuller, Houston
Andy Hicks: Fifth-year lucky is the game you need to play with Will Fuller this year. Missing 22 games in four years, multiple different injuries and inconsistent play all point to a lottery draft pick if you plan on selecting him. He averages two one hundred yard games a year and half of his career touchdowns come in these games. Outweighing these games are six one reception games and 10 with two receptions. Sure it’s nice to play him when he has 14 receptions, 217 yards, and three touchdowns, but realistically you are more likely to see two receptions for 15 yards or not have him available.
Matt Waldman: It's simple: If Fuller can stay healthy, he has 1,200-yard talent thanks to his route running and deep speed. He'll have to prove he can stay healthy this year because he has yet to prove it during his NFL career. For three of the past four years, Fuller had consecutive games prior to an injury where he produced as a fantasy starter. Even when Fuller's injuries didn't cost him the season, his production upon his return rarely met starter standards during a given week. Fuller hasn't stayed healthy and the type of injuries he's had result in him being ineffective when he can return to the field. No thanks.
Jason Wood: Can we stop trying to make Will Fuller a thing? In four seasons, he's ranked WR63, WR48, WR64, and WR53. He's missed 22 games in four years and has been a fixture on the injury report otherwise. He's also a boom-or-bust player contingent on tracking down a few deep throws. When the connection hits, he can put up a big week. But far too often the game script doesn't play to Fuller's strengths. The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins away, but it's a mistake to think that vaults Fuller's role. His role is defined and capped by his injuries and limited route tree. Brandin Cooks will be the new No. 1, and the trio of Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee are all as likely to be featured based on defensive matchups.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Marquise Brown, Baltimore
Andrew Davenport: The argument for Brown to take a big step forward is pretty simple. He was hampered by a foot injury all year, and his connection with Lamar Jackson should take a leap in year two. But Brown's numbers from 2019 are bad enough that his rise in ADP is perplexing. He finished 50th in PPR points per game, barely cracking double digits on the season. And most startling is that he racked up over 20% of his points on the season in game number one against the feckless Dolphins defense. His average in his other 13 games was a putrid 8.9 points per game. The injury may have hampered his development, but Brown's ADP says that he needs to improve by at least 5-6 points per game to become worthy of his spot in drafts. With Jackson's 9% touchdown rate a candidate for regression, and Baltimore's use of their tight ends in the passing game, the path for Brown to fulfill his draft position is awfully risky.
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie Marquise Brown finished as the top wideout for Baltimore in 2019, a solid ending in his rookie campaign. The Ravens are a running team first and foremost, and QB Lamar Jackson tends to look at TE Mark Andrews first on passing downs. That said, Brown has big-play ability and can have an explosive performance any given week. He should continue to grow in his sophomore season and offers solid value as the Ravens' top outside receiver and has strong long term value in a very young offense, but he is best used in either Best Ball or as a spot starter (WR4 / flex) given his “Boom / Bust” type performances.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo
Sigmund Bloom: Diggs will have to share the deep targets with John Brown in a low volume pass offense with a new quarterback who struggled with deep accuracy last year. Brown is very accomplished with a year of experience and should see lesser corners with the addition of Diggs. If you want to dabble in Bills wide receivers this year, Brown is the better pick at a fraction of the cost of Diggs.
Andrew Davenport: Diggs has gone from a mediocre fantasy situation to a poor one. Josh Allen has one heck of an arm, but he struggles with deep ball accuracy (all accuracy, to be exact), and is significantly worse in almost every statistical quarterback category when compared with Kirk Cousins. Also, the Bills attempted 461 passes in 2019, 21st in the league, and there is nothing to show that they will change this formula going forward. On top of all of these issues, Diggs now has to compete with the very capable John Brown for targets down the field, whereas in Minnesota Adam Thielen was more of a natural complement to what Diggs was tasked to do. In almost every single aspect, Diggs' situation has become worse in some regard. He's a perfect candidate to have big games followed by long bouts of inconsistency, so counting on him to deliver last year's numbers isn't wise. Therefore, despite what a dynamic player he is, his ADP is too high for his risk.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Phil Alexander: Bruce Arians confirmed the Buccaneers plan to run 12 personnel as their base offense this season (two tight ends, one running back and two wide receivers). The formation will kick Godwin out of the slot in favor of a tight end more often than last year. During his breakout 2019 season, 63% of Godwin's yardage came on slot routes. He's plenty talented enough to win on the perimeter, but running fewer high-percentage routes (along with fewer pass-heavy game scripts for the improved Buccaneers) will cap his counting stats. Unfortunately, last year was the season to take Godwin at ADP.
Sigmund Bloom: Godwin had a true breakout season, but his production was enhanced by extra garbage time and more wide-open game scripts with Jameis Winston at the helm. Tom Brady will take care of the ball, and the Bucs offense will feature more two-tight-end sets with Rob Gronkowski on board, which will cost Godwin snaps at the coveted slot receiver role in Bruce Arians offense. Godwin will be good, but not good enough to justify a cost that anticipates a repeat of 2019.
Amari Cooper, Dallas
Jeff Haseley: Amari Cooper is inconsistent to begin with, and now that Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are in the mix, it leaves me not wanting any of them unless the value is too good to ignore. Also, the Cowboys will play the AFC North and the NFC West. The NFC East has the worst schedule against fantasy defenses in the league. There are too many factors for me to want any of this uncertainty in Dallas. The Cowboys also play Baltimore, San Francisco, and Philadelphia in three of the last four games.
Andy Hicks: Amari Cooper had a great year on paper that was rewarded with a huge contract in the off-season. The reality was that his dynamite start to the 2019 season soon spluttered and he finished with an average of fewer than four catches for less than fifty yards a game over his last seven games. With only one touchdown over this timeframe he was easily outperformed by his teammate Michael Gallup. Moving onto 2020 and the big question is how does the arrival of rookie CeeDee Lamb affect the whole passing game distribution? Is this a Randy Moss situation where one of the 1000-yard receivers from the previous year turn into Jake Reed? I do not doubt that each of the primary receivers will have big games, the question is reliable production. Cooper has consistently been inconsistent in his career to date.
D.J. Moore, Carolina
Matt Waldman: Moore should once again lead this team in receiving because he has the best combination of athletic and positional skills on the depth chart. Look for him to earn a lot of time in the slot as well as the flanker position. This should help him generate vertical match ups on inside-out routes that Bridgewater can deliver with accuracy. However, it's the go route and deep post that Bridgewater hasn't had success with during his college and NFL career and it's these targets that will put a cap on the Panthers passing game--and Moore's upside--this year if Bridgewater doesn't improve.
Jason Wood: Moore is being drafted as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, and that leaves no margin for error. He broke out in his second season with 87 catches for 1,175 yards but was targeted 135 times. With a new head coach (Matt Rhule), a new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) calling plays in the NFL for the first time, a new quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) who has been afraid to throw downfield for most of his career, and a credible new outside receiver in Robby Anderson, Moore has far too much volatility and risk to draft as a cornerstone of your roster. Volatility is okay if the downside comes with week-winning upside, but Moore has been the least explosive receiver among top fantasy picks. In 31 career games, he only has two top-12 weekly performances. By comparison, Tyler Lockett is second-worst among the top 30 drafted receivers, and he stands at 15.9%. The average among the top drafted pass-catchers is 26.7%. Why pay WR1 prices for someone who never gives you WR1 weeks?
Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas
David Dodds: Wide Receivers accounted for just 1,792 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Raiders last year. Ruggs joins a young crew that includes Tyrell Williams (age 28), Hunter Renfrow (25), Bryan Edwards (22), Nelson Agholor (27), and Zay Jones (25). Ruggs is expected to be the team's WR1 from day 1, but will he be in a pandemic offseason where reps are limited? I expect the Raiders will lean on TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs to start the season as they play a murderer's row of defenses (vs NO, at NE, vs BUF, at KC) in the first five weeks of the season. Ruggs could be a great player to close out the year, but one should look to acquire him during the team's bye in week 6 with this difficult slate of games behind him.
Jason Wood: When the Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs, it made all the sense in the world How better to karmically christen the team's rebirth in a new city than to draft the player move evocative of the late Al Davis' preferred mold? Ruggs was a standout receiver for the University of Alabama who -- along with Jerry Jeudy -- formed a dynamic duo rarely seen in the college ranks. While Ruggs' long-term future is bright, not being able to acclimate fully because of pandemic-related restrictions, it's going to be difficult for rookies, particularly at finesse positions including receiver, to make a fast impact. Pandemic issues aside, Raiders coordinator Greg Olson baffled everyone by declaring Ruggs as the slot receiver entering training camp. Nick Saban specifically called Jeudy an ideal NFL slot receiver and said Ruggs is better suited as a speed option on the outside. When the greatest coach in college history sees a player a certain way, it seems ill-advised to put him into the opposite role. But that's the Raiders doing Raider things.
Courtland Sutton, Denver
Phil Alexander: Outside of Drew Lock's Week 13 debut, in which Sutton caught four-out-of-five targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns, the second-year receiver struggled along with his rookie quarterback despite receiving 11.7 targets per game. While Sutton has the look of a prototype X-receiver, he's not going to command such heavy volume with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Melvin Gordon added to the mix. Absent massive volume, Sutton is in an uphill battle to live up to last season's WR18 finish. He's tied to Lock, who averaged a dismal 6.5 yards per pass attempt as a rookie, and despite their improved offensive weapons, the Broncos' strength remains on defense. The possibility exists Sutton emerges as a superstar who can overcome his surroundings. But it's more likely he has no business being drafted ahead of guys like Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green.
Chad Parsons: Sutton had a promising 2019 season but was still a WR2/3 for fantasy utility. Fast-forward to 2020 and quarterback is a question mark with Drew Lock as a Day 2 draft pick with a mere five games under his belt. Also, Denver addressed the passing game strongly with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler drafted in each of the first two rounds and Noah Fant, also with more pedigree than Sutton, enters Year 2 at tight end. Sutton has minimal upside from last year's finish with plenty of risks considering quarterback play and a more balanced passing game collection of targets.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City
James Brimacombe: Watkins has always given you an up and down type of season ever since he entered the league seven years ago. He will give you a good game every now and again but he is a constant headache when you draft him in fantasy as you never know when to start him and he often sits on your bench all season. Watkins has finished as the WR62 and WR52 the last two seasons and I feel he is only getting drafted as high as he is because of the fact that he was a 4th overall NFL Draft pick back in 2014 and that he now plays for the Chiefs who have the best offense in the NFL.
Ryan Hester: It’s always nice to have pieces of an elite offense, but Watkins should be even further down the pecking order this season with Mecole Hardman expected to grow and the running backs commanding a decent target share. If things go according to plan in Kansas City, Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will emerge to add young game-breaking ability to the stalwarts at the top of the target food chain — Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville
David Dodds: He wowed early in 2019 but faded horribly as defenses started to treat him as the WR1 in the Jaguars offense. In his 2-year career, Chark has logged 20 games where he was on the field for at least 30 snaps. In those 20 games, Chark averaged just 4.2 catches (on 7 targets) for 55 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. I rate Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, T.Y. Hilton, and Terry McLaurin as substantially better players with similar ADPs.
Brandin Cooks, Houston
Dan Hindery: Cooks claims he has zero concern over his recent string of concussions but they are starting to add up and we should consider that risk when drafting him. Cooks is also trying to get up to speed on a new team with very little offseason. There is going to be plenty of competition for targets, as well. Will Fuller is going to be the top guy and Randall Cobb will rack up targets in the slot.
Julian Edelman, New England
Dan Hindery: Considering the exciting young talents going off the board in the same part of the draft, it is hard to justify taking Edelman at his current ADP. He is 34-years old and has had some injuries in recent years. You have to be worried about both injuries and Edelman losing a step. Plus, N’Keal Harry is going to get more looks in year two and Mohamed Sanu is going to get his as well. The biggest thing Edelman had going for him was his rapport with Brady and he no longer has that. He will have a very short window to try to get on the same page with Cam Newton.
Mecole Hardman - Kansas City
David Dodds: He finished the year with 26 catches for 538 yards and 6 touchdowns but got a big chunk of that production with Tyreek Hill injured. Once Tyreek Hill returned from injury (week 6), Hardman was a non-factor. In those 11 games (Week 6-17), he logged 245 snaps but only had 14 receptions. John Brown and Sterling Shepard are drafted at a similar ADP and are better NFL talents at this point in their careers.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City
Jeff Haseley: It was brought to my attention recently that Tyreek Hill could be a disappointment relative to his draft position, so I did some research and learned that he had only two games with 10+ targets in 2019 and he had just five games where he scored. As good as Hill is, Travis Kelce is the go-to receiver for Kansas City and Hill is more dependent on touchdowns, specifically long scores. He has speed to burn and is obviously a key weapon in that offense, but his lack of consistent volume is concerning. You want volume from your WR1 and Hill is lacking that.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie first-round selection Justin Jefferson landed in a great spot to start right away in Minnesota, as the Vikings created that vacancy by trading away Stefon Diggs to Buffalo during the off-season. Jefferson is considered to be NFL-ready after playing and excelling in the SEC for LSU, posting 111 catches last year in the toughest collegiate conference. While Jefferson has a clear path to starting for the Vikings, Minnesota’s shift in offensive emphasis primarily towards the run game with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison leaves fewer targets for everyone after Adam Thielen. Jefferson should perform well, but expecting a rookie breakout is asking for too much. Longer-term, Jefferson has elite potential, but temper expectations for his first season.
Julio Jones, Atlanta
Dan Hindery: Jones is arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL and has been incredibly productive throughout his career. However, he is going too high in 2020 drafts. I want more touchdown upside to justify the opportunity cost of passing on one of the true three-down running backs available near the top of the draft. Jones has not scored more than 8 touchdowns in any of the last seven seasons and has caught a touchdown on fewer than 4% of his targets that stretch. Plus, it does not feel like Jones’ age-related risk is fully priced in at his current ADP. Though he has not shown signs of slippage yet, he turned 31-years old in February. He is at an age where we cannot rule out the possibility he will lose half a step and at some point, Calvin Ridley is going to surpass him. More worrisome, we also have to take into account the increased risk of injury for skill-position players of his age.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
Jeff Pasquino: Dallas is perfectly comfortable with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as their starting wide receivers, but Lamb's talent was too good to pass on when he was available for Dallas' first-round pick in April. Lamb will be able to start slower and learn the NFL game and the higher level, playing mostly on passing-only downs as the third receiver for the Cowboys. Dallas may de-emphasize the tight end position with Jason Witten now in Oakland, which could have Lamb on the field more in three wideout formations. Lamb has great long term value as he learns from Cooper and with Dak Prescott nearing a long term deal as the starter for years to come, but given that he will be third on the depth chart this season, temper expectations for his rookie campaign.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland
Justin Howe: Landry is a volume-based fantasy play even when he's not racing the clock following hip surgery. Healthy or no, it seems foolhardy to chase last season's 138 targets. The Browns' new offense projects to notably less passing, and Landry's role as the primary underneath threat is in jeopardy. Kareem Hunt took on a big workload in his Browns debut, and the team added short-range tight end, Austin Hooper, on a massive contract. Landry doesn't generate much on his opportunities (a career 7.2 yards per target), and he's never been one to find the end zone often (32 touchdowns over 6 full seasons). A low ceiling and a shaky floor never make for a good fantasy combination. Even at full strength, Landry looks like a PPR WR3 at best.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle
Andy Hicks: Tyler Lockett has definitely lifted his production over the last two years while Seattle has lacked the prototypical WR1. That changes heading into the second season for rookie phenom DK Metcalf, Lockett may get more receptions, but the touchdown and yardage figures will belong to the younger player. In a perfect world for Seattle, Lockett becomes the key receiver in important situations while Metcalf becomes the game destroyer. There is significant room for Lockett to regress this year if that plays out.
Terry McLaurin, Washington
Andy Hicks: There is no doubt Terry McLaurin started the 2019 season with a bang, but then what? In his advantage is a very poor receiving group at Washington, but the whole offense doesn’t fill me with much confidence at all. Ron Rivera has a significant rebuild on his hands if he can be given time. Maybe Dwayne Hoskins will look better than he did in 2019 and he needs to if this team is to have any chance in 2020. Back to McLaurin. He averaged less than four receptions and 56 yards a game after his early-season peak and only had two touchdowns in that time. If we play the fun game of pro-rata on his last nine appearances he barely finishes as a borderline WR3. He may have upside but there is some shocking downside that others near his draft slot don’t have.
Anthony Miller, Chicago
Jeff Pasquino: Miller is a lackluster second wide receiver with Chicago, a team with a below-average offense that struggles to support a large amount of fantasy value beyond Allen Robinson in the passing game. Miller tends to accumulate short receptions and the Bears hope that he can break them for bigger yardage, as shown by his 217 of 656 receiving yards (33%) after the catch. Miller’s biggest games last season came in contests where Trey Burton missed time, leaving Miller as the third target (behind Allen Robinson and RB Tarik Cohen). If Jimmy Graham stays healthy at tight end this season, Miller will likely finish below his projections and barely be worth a fantasy roster spot.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
David Dodds: Samuel is a talent, but he fractured a bone in his foot on June 18th. On July 28th, General Manager John Lynch commented that Samuel is likely to miss some games. At his current ADP, it's too much risk for a player playing on a team that loves to play defense and run the football.
Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans
James Brimacombe: Sanders played a total of 17 games in 2019 and was a player that people were afraid to draft because of the injury the year before. He outperformed expectations and finished with a respectable 66/869/5 stat line between Denver and San Francisco. My problem with Sanders heading into 2020 is that he is the WR2 in New Orleans opposite of Michael Thomas. The WR2 in New Orleans never seems to take off and drafting Sanders at his cost this season just feels very risky.
Darius Slayton, NY Giants
Phil Alexander: More games played by Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram equate to fewer targets for Slayton. He'll have some boom weeks as the Giants only legitimate perimeter threat, but they'll be fewer and farther between than they were during his surprising rookie season. Slayton is a much better depth receiver in best-ball leagues than he is in redraft formats.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Twelve catches for 109 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s a nice game for a receiver. It is however not a good result for the last five games you have played. This is where we are at when assessing JuJu smith-Schuster. Some of us think that the departure of Antonio Brown proved that Smith-Schuster is not an NFL number one receiver. Another concern is that Pittsburgh just keeps drafting receivers with high picks. Smith-Schuster himself was taken with the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft. James Washington the 60th pick in 2018, Diontae Johnson the 66th in 2019, and this year the Steelers went even higher with Chase Claypool and the 49th overall pick. With the luxury of depth at the position, it would not surprise if JuJu leaves after this season.
Mike Williams, LA Chargers
Jason Wood: Last year, people overvalued Williams because of an unsustainable touchdown rate (10 scores on 66 targets), and it bit them hard. Now only did Williams' show touchdown regression, he went to the opposite end of the spectrum by catching just two scores on 90 targets. He looked lost at times and doesn't have the consistency necessary to vie for top-20 value. With a 57% career catch rate, if Williams couldn't put it all together with Philip Rivers in the huddle, it's hard to get excited at what he'll do with a combination of Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert throwing to him. Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are better receivers and will earn the play-callers and quarterbacks' trust more readily.
